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General discussionCaptain Sapphire THE MOVIE (gog mafia #57) (1080 posts)(1080 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted April 10, 2019
We failed again, folks. Big time.
We lost one of our own, and Dedo was NK.
The voting record so far for our two ded heroes:
Fran: blotunga, Dedoporno (TOWN), HypersomniacLive, PookaMustard, Lifthrasil (TOWN), ZFR, SirPrimalform,
Lift: Trentonlf, HypersomniacLive, Supplementscene, Korotan, blotunga, Dedoporno (TOWN),
removing town, this becomes:
Fran: blotunga, HypersomniacLive, PookaMustard, ZFR, SirPrimalform,
Lift: Trentonlf, HypersomniacLive, Supplementscene, Korotan, blotunga,

HSL & blot are in both lists.

Dedo had been focusing very hard on Scene's guilt, and switched to Lift at the last. He died for some reason. I doubt the mafia used a randomiser to pull a town name.
Something he said made him a target. We must all do an ISO on those comments regarding hunted Lift, and on those against hunted dedo; as well as all those accusations that Dedo & Lift made.

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HypersomniacLive: And now that things have calmed down, I noticed that SirPrimalform managed to end another Day without sharing a single thing about his thoughts on the board or/and his suspects. Amazing.
I hate this.
Posted April 10, 2019
Vote count please, Joe. And try not to mess it up.
Posted April 10, 2019
Why, ZFR? the day just started, no votes have yet been cast. My vote for SPF didn't count as Lift had already been hammered. :(
Posted April 10, 2019
Micro, I like yor post. Couple of things to note though.


I wouldn't put that mych weight into Fran's list, since it was towards the end an inevitable lynch. (Though blotunga did put the vote before it was so... again might not mean much). In fact I'd look closely at people who didn't vote. Did they try to keep their hands clean on purpose?

Regarding looking at whom dedo suspected, there is WIFOM involved. Mafia might try to NK a town player in conflict with another town to put the other town in bad light.

Personally NKing dedo surprises me a little. He wasnt actually in big a conflict with anybody and might have been in fact a viable wagon on D3 due to his hammering of a townie.

You advanced quickly from a newbie who couldn't get his simple acronyms straight to someone who prepares and analyzes lists on D3. At the back of my head I still wonder if that newbiness was an act. ;)

I think I will start with blotunga. As mentioned yesterday, I found it weird how his reaction to scene accusation is so diametrically different from last game. He voted Lift when Lift's and scene's wagons were almost tied. Ive no doubt his RL reason of going to sleep was real, but why not even consider scene? The duo seems odd in many ways.

Vote blotunga
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Microfishd: Why, ZFR? the day just started, no votes have yet been cast. My vote for SPF didn't count as Lift had already been hammered. :(
Is my sarcasm (about Joe screwing vote counts last Day) not so obvious? :(
Post edited April 10, 2019 by ZFR
Posted April 10, 2019
And in the post where I mention Joe screwing up I end up double-posting myself. Sorry :(
Posted April 10, 2019
I was going to suggest ISO'ing Lift, but, do that for Dedo too. I'll try an ISO on one of either later, preferably tomorrow as I plan to be less busy by then. Also, it may sound ridiculous, but also ISO those who are ISO'ing these two. That said, I wonder if ISOs are really all that effective for me to mention it five times in the same paragraph...

So anyways, one thing I failed to notice in the previous day and would like to address is...
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blotunga: Now a little explanation is needed: the pooka vote has brought no noticeable result, a spf one would have had probably the same effect. Imho for the game it would've made sense to target one of them, as they say in the movies it's usually the silent ones that have something to hide.
I mean, just to make sure I know what I'm talking about, you have 34 posts with much of your later ones focusing on your slip, while I have 36 posts with larger word counts (which in my opinion, makes up for their relative infrequency by presenting more content). So I am more or less as active as you are if not miles more; not to mention I've been present and playing since the very beginning (the first player post doesn't have much relevant to the game, but it was basically myself saying "I am first!"). Hell, I think I'm more active here than I was in the Secret Hitler game.

So please tell me in which way do you consider me "inactive" or "silent"? Lift questioned this thought before being unmasked. The least I could do for him is to continue his line of thought and see the angle you're approaching me with.

For instance, I consider SirPrimalform lurky and silent because his posts are infrequent and don't have much to bring to the table; he's more or less good at saying nearly nothing with a lot of words. Am I SPF-lurky, or just a kind of lurky special only to Pooka?
Posted April 10, 2019
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ZFR: I wouldn't put that mych weight into Fran's list, since it was towards the end an inevitable lynch. (Though blotunga did put the vote before it was so... again might not mean much). In fact I'd look closely at people who didn't vote. Did they try to keep their hands clean on purpose?
I can only speak for myself. Fran wasn't super suspicious, she was a "ugh, let's cut a (mostly) non-player."
I suspected SPF then & now; his MO is a very convenient one to hide behind if he is scum, and not very town-friendly if he is town. IOW, he looks almost as bad as Fran, and--to me at least--a whole lot worse than Lift did. I've come to realize that my fixation (what others might refer to as "tunneling") on SPF might make me look as bad as it made Scene look earlier--but only if SPF is scum.

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ZFR: Regarding looking at whom dedo suspected, there is WIFOM involved. Mafia might try to NK a town player in conflict with another town to put the other town in bad light.

Personally NKing dedo surprises me a little. He wasnt actually in big a conflict with anybody and might have been in fact a viable wagon on D3 due to his hammering of a townie.
Yeeees, maybe. However, we cannot and dare not forget that, in the end, he was killed. You first voted in this game with a randomizer (or a joke post to reference previous RVS'ing). I doubt that mafia did similar. They targeted for a reason. We just need to figure out what reason.


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ZFR: You advanced quickly from a newbie who couldn't get his simple acronyms straight to someone who prepares and analyzes lists on D3. At the back of my head I still wonder if that newbiness was an act. ;)

I think I will start with blotunga. As mentioned yesterday, I found it weird how his reaction to scene accusation is so diametrically different from last game. He voted Lift when Lift's and scene's wagons were almost tied. Ive no doubt his RL reason of going to sleep was real, but why not even consider scene? The duo seems odd in many ways.

Vote blotunga
Is my sarcasm (about Joe screwing vote counts last Day) not so obvious? :(
Well, I am a newb, and I still feel a bit overwhelmed and out-thought. However, the links to the abbreviation page & the link to the general mafia wiki have helped a good deal.

I wasn't present for the previous game, but do you consider yourself to be in danger of tunneling on blot?
To be honest, I was in such a huge hurry when i sent my previous post that I didn't see it. Looking back however, i do see the sarcasm/humor.

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HypersomniacLive: Well, there were a few too many emergencies at the hospital, and I was shifted to tomorrow for the most part.
Any new news? I hope all is going well.

Bump please, though it might not be needed as i might take too long to prepare my next post.
Posted April 10, 2019
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Microfishd: I wasn't present for the previous game, but do you consider yourself to be in danger of tunneling on blot?
Yes, there is always that danger. Im trying to proceed carefully, but on the other hand there are multiple issues with the blotscene duo that makes me think no smoke without fire.
Posted April 10, 2019
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PookaMustard: - Fran76 for lurking (until today that is)
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dedoporno: Would you say their lurking stopped now?

Fran is and, unless something serious happens, will be my prime choice now. If no one else supports this I'm open to go with Scene, maybe SPF if my vote is needed to secure a lynch on either of them. I'd add Koro to that list but I'd like to give him the newbie D1 pass for obvious reasons.
D1 is over. Koro is now fair game, if very unlikely as of yet. Pooka supported Fran as of Post #196, who ended up being town.

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dedoporno: And yet you considered it until just recently. I'm sorry I'm getting stuck on that, it's just that I have been burned (literally) buch such things before. There was a game where a TOWN Arsonist (a serial killer for all intents and purposes) was given a sidekick who's personal winning goal was to keep them alive until the end while the SK was compulsively killing each night. So, sometimes certain people are told about such things and that knowledge can be a heavy burden.
Here he attacks/questions Pooka. Pooka comes up a few more times on D1.
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trentonlf: Now onto this game, what’s your thought on Scene wanting to push blotunga to claim if he was the doctor (yes now it doesn’t matter as blotunga has alreadyclaimed he was not, but Scene wanting to do that to begin with is what I’m referencing)?
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dedoporno: I don't like what I'm seeing. I'm not sure if scene is reaching (and I do think he is reaching with this) intentionally or not - I'm getting a drealmer vibes from him so it's not impossible that he genuinely believes what he says but I don't know. It doesn't feel exactly right.

I would like SPF to be more active and interactive but then again he has health issues so I don't dare put lots of weight on it and make a huge deal out of it. I do see him as lurky.

ZFR I'm not sure about. There are weird things vibes around him but then he is getting pushed and accused by people who I don't feel great about, so I'm not sure what to think.

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ZFR: Does anyone other than the two who voted him (scene and Koro) seriously believe scum blotunga would make such a slip?
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dedoporno: I don't know if blotunga would have made such a slip but I find the whole situation being blown out of proportion for sure.
Scene makes another appearance, as do Koro, Blot, and ZFR.

TBH, I find ZFR's attacking Blot interesting, when in 364 he is defending blot.
@ZFR please elaborate (for the umpteenth time) what has changed for you since the beginning of D2 to where you are now voting for Blot?

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supplementscene: 2. Is it SupplementScene for not posting for much of the first week?
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dedoporno: I like how you cite this as the only argument against you.
Scene again.

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dedoporno: I already share my view on this - I think this is being blown out of proportion but I'm not sure why. It may very well be Town-scene being scene and tunneling on what he actually believes is lead too good to let go or or scum-scene is trying to get through what seems to be the most viable mislynch available. Of course, it's possible that scene is Town and blotunga is scum and did slip, but from everything I've seen so far I don't find that too likely. Even less likely I find this new theory that about both being scum and scene bussing blotunga, though. That seems like a pretty big dick move considering there wasn't that much heat being put on either of them to call for such tactics. I also don't think it's likely this was concerted during N1 since I can't see why someone would give up their first game on the off-chance a not-so-great play provide Town cred to one not extremely popular player while sacrificing another.

Right now I don't think blotunga and scene are scum together. Nor ZFR and scene. I guess it's possible ZFR and scene might be scum together (ZFR is representing blotunga as a personal counselor quite passionately).

Technically, I can't pass the option where this all is a very elaborate ruse that includes all three of them - I underestimated ZFR like that once - never again. Still, this is too next-level and out there so I'd rather not consider it at all. If that happens to be the case - a tip of the hat to them.
ZFR, Scene, & Blot appear.

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dedoporno: The "easy" choices from yesterday, SPF and scene, are not so easy on D2 - I'm not terribly happy with SPF's posting habits but I don't think that's out of character for him.

I have a feeling that there may be one scum among scene, blotunga and ZFR but I'm also not sure that's necessarily scene.

I also think there is at least one scum among the vets (Lift, HSL, trent) - each one of these guys is capable of fooling me especially when the most discussed things may end up being town mistakes. I'm particularly paranoid about HSL as he publicly agrees with me every now and again which, of course, may very well be because he actually does share the same opinion but it also may be him doing it to make me feel better about him. Either way he is always very wordy and vigilant to the extreme as either alignment so it's always looking like him scumhunting and it's hard to pick up early on his actual purpose.
Various people appear again. Lift was town, and thus was innocent.

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dedoporno: From what I've seen so far I'm more inclined to see scene as tunneling on something that he genuinely thinks is a good and clever catch rather than scum trying to conjure a mislynch out of nothing. On the other hand I'm really not a fan of him rejecting to participate in Fran's lynch. Fran's lynch was too convenient to skip and it looked like scene would rather go with no-lynch than securing the only likely lynch. The lynch would have happened anyway so there was no derailing it at that point. It almost feels like distancing from a wagon for the sole purpose of not being on it. To be honest that's my biggest issue with scene (most if not everything else may very well be Town-scene being himself).

I don't want to lynch Pooka, Trent, HSL Today.

Other than being part of the most prominent story Today I don't feel like blotunga is doing a whole lot on that same front.

I don't think Koro is really picking up speed so I'd be fine with him as well.

My feelings towards SPF haven't really changed so he's also an OK choice.

I think I'd rather lynch scene or blotunga (but just one of them) before starting to consider ZFR.
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supplementscene:
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dedoporno: vote scene

Fine, I'm going with you then but I do want to go back and have a second look. I also want to try and see what a number of others are seeing in Lift.
Scene again.
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dedoporno: Scene is more or less what I expected. Other than some initial uneasy vibes and the distinct intent to stay off Fran's wagon I feel it's very possible that is Town-scene tunneling and sticking to what he thinks he's found. That's that much more likely if Lift is actually scum.
Lift wasn't scum.

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dedoporno: On Lift - he has a pretty big stack of content but quite a lot of that (most of the first half really) is big posts that explain game stuff to the newer players which is free activity and content but doesn't necessarily come from a Town mindset. It's pretty much a whole lot of common sense that is just that - it doesn't hurt the scum really but can appear very helpful. I assume that's one of the reason why it generally makes me feel good it. Someone (maybe it was HSL but it might have been scene) mentioned about superficial stuff which is also visible here and there, and there are a couple of bits where it feels that a statement or move made by Lift is being called out and then retracted as a result which, if one is looking for foul play, can be seen as him feeling his way around possible things to stick and backing off if it doesn't. All of this is when looking at him with under the prejudice of him being scum, though, rather than trying to be neutral about it and see where that goes, so I'm not certain I'm not finding exactly what I'm looking for but I have to admit that there is decent chance something is there.
Exactly what I hate about SPF's posting habits. He puts only jokes (or little info--except when defending ZFR?) into his posts. Also, he failed to vote at all, or give reasons for doing so. This is super-scummy to me.

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dedoporno: Under the assumption that Lift is indeed scum I'd say the rest of them are (assuming 3 scum in total) among PookaMustard, ZFR, Microfishd and blotunga. This is mostly based on the assumption of him being scum and then applying some simple method of exclusion based on perceived interactions.

To be honest I'm not happy about the idea of swapping prime suspect for a pretty much last resort one in the final hours but I may have to do it as I'm even more torn about scene now (and Lift in that context).
Lift wasn't scum, and I'd love to hear Dedo's thoughts now. Unfortunately, he didn't list the alternate scenarios.

--------
Going through all of this, he attacked Scene an awful lot.

In all this the following names come up (mostly from Dedo, a couple times from me in summary):
Scene: 32x
Blot/Blotunga: 17x
ZFR: 13x
Lift: 10x
SPF: 6x
pooka:5x
Koro: 5x
HSL: 4x
Trent: 2x

He never outright accused me, so I did not include myself in those numbers.

Scene shows up by far the most frequently.
IF Scene is scum, this is an oustanding reason for a NK. Other than that, Blot or ZFR are the prime suspects for being scum based off of using Dedo's posts as motivation to NK him.
Posted April 10, 2019
Dude, excellent analysis.

So... there is more reasons for blotunga, scene...

Regarding your question on how my opinion on blotunga progressed
I believed blotunga's explanation first. Later What surprised me was scene's insistance on blotunga being a scum who slipped. Even going as far as rejecting the language mixup having happened.

So I studied the two, and other things began to emerge. Their interactions on D1; scene's defending his RVS blotunga vote as real... scene not voting Fran and "accusing" those who jumped on Fran midway. At this stage I was leaning on scene being scum with blotunga either a fellow scum being bussed or perhaps a townie being setup. Blotunga's reactions at Day end, voting on Lift for weak reasons without even considering scene made me go back to the double scum theory.
Posted April 10, 2019
I just woke up, seems like I have a lot to catch up. I will check back in 3-4 hours, when I have more time.
Until then, regarding my votes toward Fran/Lift. In the Fran case, I tried to get a reaction, and then the wagon built itself. With lift as people said that a misslynch would be bad for town, I went with the most likely lynch target. If scene would've had more votes, I would've gone with him. It was close to the deadline and I knew I wasn't going to be there later.
@zfr: thanks for the "confidence". Do I need to remind you that when I tried to be more assertive, you shot me? I was town then too.
I haven't had time to read the rest, just skimmed so I'll check back later.
Posted April 10, 2019
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Microfishd: ...
You are leaving something out of your analysis, seeing as there was no NK on N1 who do you think scum would target on N2? More than likely the same person they targeted on N1 because if there is a Doctor in the game that stopped the first NK they would not be able to protect the same person two nights in a row. So scum would know that the target from N1 stands the best chance of being a successful NK on N2

That being said, very good analysis. I now want to see what Scene and blotunga say.
Posted April 10, 2019
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blotunga: @zfr: thanks for the "confidence". Do I need to remind you that when I tried to be more assertive, you shot me?
I shot you because a 100% confirmed fascit vouched for you. Not because you were assertive. Nice misinterpretation.
Posted April 10, 2019
Well I am woken up and I am feeling guilty. I honestly do ask myself if I am in the end whas convinced of TrashSeal being a traitor. Well because he turns out to be an unnececary sacrafice I will now hunt for those whe hunt last.
VOTE Inkblot
Posted April 10, 2019
CORRECTION: "I've come to realize that my fixation (what others might refer to as "tunneling") on SPF might make me look as bad as it made Scene look earlier--but only if SPF is scum." I mis-typed, and meant, "but only if SPF is town."

Titled: What I Saw As Relevant Bits of Lift's Comments; Or: You Should Check His Posts and See for Yourself, But This Is What I Saw as Important, In Case You Missed It Or Didn't Want It Remembered:

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Lifthrasil: I noticed something. SirP spent all of his posts joking around and conducting 'experiments', that didn't help with scum-hunting at all. Only his last post (#85) has actual content. But it is just echoing a statement that is basically already consensus: Pooka jumping on the third position of Scene's wagon is strange, but no definite scumtell. I would expect an experiences player like SirPrimalform to contribute more than that. Unless he doesn't want to.

vote SirPrimalform

Other than that, trent might actually be right about ZFR too. The quick 'this is a serious vote' vote felt a bit LAMIST. So I would prefer lynching ZFR over lynching nobody. The same is true for Pooka. Although he did explain his reason for jumping on the easiest wagon, that might still have been a scum-error. But actually korotan is also still quite high on my 'might be scum' list and the main reason why I don't want to vote for him today is that he's new. But again, if we don't find any other consensus lynching him would be better than no-lynch.
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Lifthrasil: But SirP isn't flubb. So I do expect a bit more from him.

Also don't get me wrong: joke posts aren't and shouldn't be a scum-tell. But posting only stuff without content is still a way to appear active without giving anything away about oneself. So I do agree with ZFR here: if someone posts nothing but content-free posts, I get the feeling that he's scummy. (Which is why I always read flubb as scum)
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trentonlf: Not a change of heart, but I find Scene a more likely scum candidate now. Scene's last post was 3 Days ago according to the timestamp and he's only had 3 posts in the game. It's so far out of norm for his play and it doesn't feel right.
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Lifthrasil: Yes. It's out of norm, but as HSL pointed out, Scene is quite wordy as scum too. Something is different about Scene this time, but I'm not sure it's alignment-indicative in this case.

I would still prefer to lynch SPF. There is slightly more to analyze in his case and his MO feels off. Yes, he is never that active on Day 1, as he points out himself, but I still would expect more content from him. But maybe it really is his health....
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supplementscene: Ahh am I that obvious? Or I could be wanting to have them remain in the game because inexperienced players that are easy for me to manipulate. Meanwhile I plot and plan to pick off the heavy hitters. How dastardly I am...
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Lifthrasil: Yes, you are! Always! ;-)

And yes, there are games where dead players can keep talking as so-called tree-stumps. Someone also suggested a role that can talk with the dead somewhere. So the dead can't directly talk in the game thread anymore, but they get a hidden chat with the medium and can communicate through her. Without knowing which alignment the medium has. It's an interesting role, but one that is difficult to balance.

But a different question: what are your thoughts on SirPrimalform?
DO WE HAVE ANY TREE-STUMPS???? PLEASE SHOW YOURSELVES!

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supplementscene: That was when I thought he {HSL} was 4th on the Fran wagon, he was earlier so it kind of makes him seem less opportunistic. I think I'd shift him to 'would consider' now. Even though I do think Frans wagon is a convenient vote for the Mafia team. Just sitting on someones wagon for being absent requires Mafia to hide away from overcommiting.

What do you think of Hypers sensitivity to the voting commands? Is writing Shoot Player X instead of Vote Player X really the big deal he makes it out to be?
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Lifthrasil: It can be confusing and it should always be in the interest of town to be as precise and clear as possible. Creating confusion only helps scum. So if you want to help scum, you may continue with using creative vote-terms.
I would still be happy to lynch SPF and willing to lynch ZFR or trent, rather than no-lynch. But eliminating Fran will remove an unsolvable element of confusion. Which will again help town - since clarity is in the interest of town.
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Lifthrasil: Clarity is in the best interest of Town. We are trying to solve a social riddle. Our main weapon is figuring out who is lying - and acting is always a little bit lying too. Or in other words, scum players could abuse roleplaying as excuses. "Naah! I didn't mean that! That's just something my character would say." Also, any kind of confusion is good for scum and bad for town.

One of the core tenets of Mafia is: DON'T LIE AS TOWN. EVER! ... and lynch all liars. Scum players have no choice but to lie and sometimes they get caught. So if town keeps to the tenet of never lying, every liar lynched is automatically scum.

In conclusion: if you are Town (=Hero in this game) and you want your faction to win, better stop the role-playing. It is an unnecessary effort on your part and it acts potentially against Town.

Has anyone been caught in a lie in this game?

Relative end of day 1

In post 301 he attacks Pooka.

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HypersomniacLive: You question trentonlf, but give a pass to supplementscene for making similar assumptions. Why is that?

Not sure I follow your thought process. Elaborate?
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Lifthrasil: Heh. Good point. I guess I am too used to Scene seeing only an incomplete picture, so the fact that he 'missed' all possibilities beyond the Doctor didn't strike me as odd. Conversely, trent is an experienced player. So him focusing on only one possible role seemed a bit uncommon. But he explained it.

The second point was just a feeling. I had the impression that the "Oh, I wonder who was blocked." implied "It wasn't me!" - and I wondered if that implication was intended. So LAMIST is perhaps not the best abbreviation here. Perhaps I should have used LAMIWM (Look at me, it wasn't me!)

@Scene: HSL raises a good point here. Why were you so sure that the missing NK was a Doctor's doing?
He voted Korotan in Post 367, summarized in 369 as follows:
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Lifthrasil: Actually yes, I will say that you jump the train. I think the explanation sounds true - given that Zephyr and Sapphire are very close in blotungas own language I can see him misunderstanding the flavour. I don't think he would slip in that way if he were scum. Especially if ZFR was really the NK-target and blotunga were scum, he would surely not just tell us all about it. So this leaves two possibilities: either he is town who made a genuine mistake. Or he is scum who wanted to use the flavour to sow some confusion and make it look as if ZFR was targeted ... but that's a bit too contrieved. So at the moment I believe that this was a genuine mistake.

You, however, seem to be very eager to lynch on a meager reason. Therefore:

vote Korotan
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Korotan: Mayby it is my inexperiance, mayby it is because we have no other real leads, mayby it is because I am generall misstrusting about mistakes but for me I honestly believe we might be on a lead. Also you said we should try get as many information as possible and the only other where I think it could be something is M. Moutards all the time talking about If I where scum. Mayby I am jumping because I think because of minorities that it might be but then, show me where other leads are?
This above summarizes 367 and the defense.

BUMP PLEASE
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General discussionCaptain Sapphire THE MOVIE (gog mafia #57) (1080 posts)(1080 posts)
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