I've been in a bit of a funk the last few days. Let's get to business.
PookaMustard: Okay. Please tell me how is knowing this hypothetical blocked NK target is knowledge the mafia seeks? I am not asking for that target's role, or who did the shooting of the target and failed. Just the NK target. The knowledge of the hypothetical NK target is something the mafia already knows about. [...]
HypersomniacLive: In post #337 you said [emphasis added[
PookaMustard: [...] Figuring out who was saved from the nightkill could tell us something about
what the mafia set its sights on. [...]
HypersomniacLive: I asked you to elaborate, and you said you did in your post #339, and pointed me to the following part of your post where you laid out why you want to know who the intended NK-target was [emphasis added]:
PookaMustard: I'd like to know who it was on the basis that this
would tell us something about the target. This hypothetical target
could be a role with some kind of immunity, but the more telling thing I believe is that it would tell us that
they were town, as I don't think scum would shoot their own at this point of the game. If you ask everyone who their top targets are, you'd see different answers across the board, with few agreements about who deserves to be lynched. So by knowing this information, we narrow down the list of unknown people. Of course, I don't believe it'll be given on a silver platter.
HypersomniacLive: Here you're saying that you just want to know who it was, as in just their name. Déjà vu?
Pretty much their name.
PookaMustard: [...] Also, while your question and observation has merits, does it matter how I answer? If I get unmasked, Joe will be saying that I am of the
Heroes. [...]
HypersomniacLive: Do you think it doesn't matter? How do you think we decide who to lynch? Even if you're referring to being unmasked by a NK (are you?), does it not matter until then (assuming you're actually going to be NK-ed at some point)?
PookaMustard: [...] That is a flaw in my argument that contradicts my focus on the serial killer. I'll have to admit my point about the NK being town would be wrong. Taking that into account, the NK is probably non-mafia - town or a third faction. [...]
HypersomniacLive: And I see you either haven't read all the posts carefully, or you want us to think so.
I think it doesn't matter, but I'll entertain the thought.
I am a Hero.
However, the big question here is, do you believe me? Nobody would admit to being a Villain, so for all I know, you probably have a hunch I am lying. This also goes well with me not reading all the posts carefully (I'll admit I skim some of the posts and haven't made much of a contribution on the blotunga slip thing).
PookaMustard: [...] I'm still of the opinion that mafia wouldn't target mafia
at this time in the game, judging by how we're still not decided about our choices for lynching. [...]
HypersomniacLive: [emphasis added]
Interesting. So, you can see some point in the game where the mafia would NK one of their own? Why do you think they'd do it, and what would they gain from it?
I can see them doing it as a form of disowning. Basically "our scumbuddy is about to slip information, we don't want him to do that," and then remove them. I don't believe this scenario happened (or is about to happen) given what we have so far. There can be other scenarios where this is probable, but that's the one on my head right now.
PookaMustard: [...] I'd like to believe that the SK would not oust themselves that brazenly (unless there happens to be some role shenanigans that allow the mafia two night kills). [...]
HypersomniacLive: And how would this hypothetical SK know if the mafia has two NKs?
By the mafia themselves pulling off two NKs. Then again, I don't know if a specific set of roles can allow mafia to have two NKs.
About blotunga's slip, I think I'm erring on the side of it being a slip and not a deliberate expectation that ZFR would appear in the post. However, I can't deny it can be looked at later, especially if we gain info on any of blotunga (the center of the conflict), ZFR (a subject of the topic) or supplementscene (the prime prosecutor of the conflict). My take is, rather than focus on blotunga now, we should focus on scene first, ZFR next and blotunga last.
As for the lack of votes, I still haven't decided on who to vote for. The scum so far have been well hidden to me, and given my experience with the game (or lack thereof), D2 seems even harder than D1. I predict there's a high chance of a mislynch.
But if going by my guts, I'd choose SPF (due to not responding to my D1 vote on scene until after several joke posts later) or scene (something about his hammering down on blotunga).
I really expected Mafia to be much simpler than that, with only vanilla roles to go for them.