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On the road. Pitstop for dinner hence quick reply.

@ Koro, Lift answered your wuestions for me.

@dedo... grrrrrr NO! Hes. Not. An. Idiot. Please read again what I wrote. Hed have been an idiot if he just made the slip WITHOUT the language mixup. ( like scene seemed to believe). I believe 100% he did make the language mixip. Hence his slip if it was a slip was not an idiot one.

@HSL. Food is arrived. Tbc
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ZFR: @dedo... grrrrrr NO! Hes. Not. An. Idiot. Please read again what I wrote. Hed have been an idiot if he just made the slip WITHOUT the language mixup. ( like scene seemed to believe). I believe 100% he did make the language mixip. Hence his slip if it was a slip was not an idiot one.
I may have to read again tomorrow as it's 4am here and I may be getting this wrong but I got the impression that in your latest theory you were the NK target and blotunga did in fact slip about knowing you were the NK. How come the slip along with the language mixup is making him stupid but not without it?
do a driveby of this forum, there are things I need to address, but I think he was saying:

the slip + not having a different heart language to explain the mental jump = scum action, thus dumb action to admit it/ask about it

the slip + having a different heart language to explain the mental jump = explainable, thus not scummy; not dumb to ask about it.
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ZFR: @dedo... grrrrrr NO! Hes. Not. An. Idiot. Please read again what I wrote. Hed have been an idiot if he just made the slip WITHOUT the language mixup. ( like scene seemed to believe). I believe 100% he did make the language mixip. Hence his slip if it was a slip was not an idiot one.
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dedoporno: I may have to read again tomorrow as it's 4am here and I may be getting this wrong but I got the impression that in your latest theory you were the NK target and blotunga did in fact slip about knowing you were the NK. How come the slip along with the language mixup is making him stupid but not without it?
Yes. That is my theory.

But...
NO NO NO.
Slip With language mixup = NOT stupid (since anyone could make the mixup). This is what I believe.

Slip Without language mixup = Stupid. (since it means he slipped out just like that with no reason to do so).
Scene mentioned slip without believing in language mixup.
@HSL.

First, just to clarify one thing. In my theory I believe scene is doing ot partly to be on the clever bussing side but also importantly because he did think that with blotunga's slip he became a liability. He wouldnt do it as a dick move to hurt his team, but believes it a good move to his team since it gets rid of a slipped exposed member and earms him town points.

That aside,
Im not sure I remember right, there could be confirmation bias. And I dont want to ironically start tunnelling myself. Which is why I asked for second opinions on my theory. So thank you, and everyone else, on your input.

Re me being NK target. I dont think it's likely, but I dont know, which is why I wanted someone elses's opinion on this too, since it is a factor in my theory. What I did think, is that if scene is a scum he could have wanted to NK me because I was suspicious of him on D1 and in fact voted him. On the other hand if there are 3 scum members, and the 3rd is a veteran player he would have persuaded scene its better to nk someone else. On the third hand if the 3rd scum is Pooka, he might have wanted to NK me since I was suspicious of him too.
But this could just be me trying to make thing fit my theory.
Blotunga slip aside, I dont think myself as a likely NK target.

Anyway, I can put my theory on back burner for now. Dont want it to occupy too much time.

About your last question if anything else stands out: tbc.
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HypersomniacLive: Aside from this theory, and the blotunga/supplementscene thing, how do you read the board? Anything/anyone else standing out to you?
SPF. His lack of activity; someone said it's usual of him but it's not what I remember from Poppy's Battlestar Galactica and Joe's pokemon game. He was inactive in Secret Hotlet butthere the game dynamucs were different, and ge said so himself that he found it boring compared to mafia.
I get a bit of a feeling that he purposely took advantage of scene mentioning that he's normally inactive to be able hide behind his inactivity.

Lift. You touched upon what I found suspicious too. His vote on scene after he was questioned about giving scenea free pass, and his later going "scene? But Im voting him...".

Everyone. Why so little votes?? HSL I can understand, but the rest?
I think you guys try to read too much in my Zafir/Safiros mixup. Especially since they really sound close enough spoken out loud (at least for Hungarian natives). It might sound idiotic, but can't do much about it now can I. Next time I'm sick I'll refrain to try to draw conclusions :)
Anyway to move things forward, I don't like Pooka's silence so let's go there:
vote pooka
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blotunga: It might sound idiotic
I give up...
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supplementscene: ...
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ZFR: I have a new question for you. If you ignore blotunga for the time being, do you think it's likely I was targeted by NK in the night. Blotunga, aside.
God or Quantum Mechanics doesn't want this question answered, 3rd time I'm replying to this now.

It depends if you're Mafia or Town doesn't it? If you're Mafia its obviously virtually impossible.

So assuming your Town and assuming Blotunga is town and simply had a language mix up, big assumptions. Now out of the players if I was Mafia I'd want to lynch an experienced player who wasn't in conflict. Because players in conflict are good misslynch targets.

So the established players would be Liftrasil, Scene, ZFR, SPF, Trent, HSL and Dedo

From those players we'd remove the ones who are in conflict or are lurky as they are good for misslynching. So remove Scene and maybe Trent. Remove SPF for being lurky and one a few players wanted to lynch. Is ZFR in conflict with many others? A few voted him.

So ZFR, Liftrasil, Dedo, HSL, Trent are the likely lynches once we remove the players likely for Lynch and the inexperienced players. And it's likely 1 or more of the experienced players are Mafia anyway.

But actually no if Blotunga is genuine I don't think you were the night kill target because you had a few Day 1 votes on you if I remember correctly. Liftrasil didn't have any votes on him and I think Dedoporno didn't either. HSL and Trent only had votes from me. In theory they are all better targets if they're town.
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ZFR: Slip With language mixup = NOT stupid (since anyone could make the mixup). This is what I believe.

Slip Without language mixup = Stupid. (since it means he slipped out just like that with no reason to do so).
OK, I get it now. Slipping for no reason vs slipping because he thought he saw something that wasn't actually there but he was feeling guilty about?

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ZFR: Everyone. Why so little votes?? HSL I can understand, but the rest?
I'm not set on whom to vote for.

The "easy" choices from yesterday, SPF and scene, are not so easy on D2 - I'm not terribly happy with SPF's posting habits but I don't think that's out of character for him.

I have a feeling that there may be one scum among scene, blotunga and ZFR but I'm also not sure that's necessarily scene.

I also think there is at least one scum among the vets (Lift, HSL, trent) - each one of these guys is capable of fooling me especially when the most discussed things may end up being town mistakes. I'm particularly paranoid about HSL as he publicly agrees with me every now and again which, of course, may very well be because he actually does share the same opinion but it also may be him doing it to make me feel better about him. Either way he is always very wordy and vigilant to the extreme as either alignment so it's always looking like him scumhunting and it's hard to pick up early on his actual purpose.

I want to do a reread of Micro after I get back home alter today.

Koro is still not playing as one would hope but that may be for other reasons.
The background music continues over a montage of exploration - Two glowing eyes in inky darkness, providing just enough light to outline close tunnel walls - Captain Sapphire stepping out of a tunnel onto a high ridge overlooking a lake of purple magma - Captain Sapphire crawling on his belly in a very shallow space beneath glowing crystals which flash and spark alarmingly - Captain Sapphire swooping across a gorge, clutching the alien beast tightly as is thrahed with fear - the creature eating a particularly unfamiliar fungus-like form, observed grimly by Captain Sapphire - Captain Sapphire tentatively placing a small piece of the fungus into his mouth - Captain Sapphire furiously spitting, licking his gloves, the floor, the walls of the cave to rid himself of the taste.

2 - The Supplement (Supplementscene) - ZFR, Lifthrasil,
1 - M. Moutard (PookaMustard) - blotunga,
1 - Inkblot (blotunga) - Supplementscene,

0 - Koro-Koro Tank (Korotan) -
0 - The Hypersomniac (HypersomniacLive) -
0 - The Canton Calf (Trentonlf) -
0 - Serpent Rime (SirPrimalform) -
0 - Micro Fist (Microfishd) -
0 - ThrashSeal (Lifthrasil) -
0 - DeadProng (Dedoporno) -
0 - Zephyr (ZFR) -

Not Voting - Dedoporno, HypersomniacLive, PookaMustard, SirPrimalform, Trentonlf, Microfishd, Korotan,

Supplementscene currently holds the most votes at 5 away from majority.

deadline in twoish days

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JoeSapphire: [...] deadline in threeish days
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HypersomniacLive: Is that Saturday-Sunday-Monday or Sunday-Monday-Tuesday?

Also have a request - could you, please, include the flip for each unmasked player in the OP?
A link to the relevant post for easy access would be nice as well, but I'll settle for just the flip details if it's too much trouble.

Cheers
ummm... I guess Saturday-Sunday-Monday...ish. I've updated the register to include the information you requested.
Post edited April 08, 2019 by JoeSapphire
Well I do not know how I should play and what other reasons but because I am encouradged to show my suspects here it is even though none of it is enough for me for voting.

1. PookaMustard: Well mostly for post 313 about that she need to know what could prevent a night kill, that she brings up a serial killer and that she talks about what she would do if she where scum. Well could be like me a beginner mistake too.

2. Lifthrasil. My Mainsuspect is that he sees nearly in everthing what I do a scummy thing. When The Supplement give up the suspect for Inkblot he sees my voting more suspecious than him. I can not really immagine how it looks from the other side and how not understandable my first reasoning from the start is in the view for the rest. Well for me it looks perfectly fine but well I am here for learning how to make it look good for others too.

3. Okay this one is really far fetched and just for completion. ZFR for random voting in the start. It could have been just a joke or an calculated plan. Mayby he is a traitor. Mayby just a person with bad humor. Even though understandable for me too because I could role an eightedged dice and vote for the person with the number on it because for me there are more people where there could be something then heros where I am sure there are innocent.

The heros where I am mostly convinced that they are true heros are The Canton Calf and The Hypersomniac.
I realized so far that what I do is wrong for someone and that I jump from one hole to another.
If they would be scum they would just have said nothing or used my personality against me. But they fought for convincing others of my innocence so those two are in my opinion the last likely to be traitors.
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HypersomniacLive: I'm well aware that you're currently voting him. But I've also carefully checked when and how you placed that vote.

Another nice dodge-attempt of my actual question.
Yep. That's me. Always dodging your questions. Sorry if I have other suspect priorities than you. Scene voting for a flimsy reason isn't out of character. Korotan latching on to that flimsy reason looked over-eager. So at that moment he was my main suspect. So I voted him. And since we don't get to vote for more than one person I didn't vote Scene at the same time. After I came to the conclusion that it was a genuine newbie mistake on Korotan's part, I unvoted him and voted Scene instead. However, I'm not sure at all if Scene is scum. As I explained, his tenacity concerning the 'slip' he thinks he found may be a town-tell. Or it may be acted by him. He is, after all, a much better scum player than town player.
SPF is also still scummy. Either of these two would be a viable lynch for today in my eyes. Actually, I'll put them on equal footing for now. Then you all can decide which wagon to drive.

vote SPF

Yes, HSL, I know you will now accuse me again of protecting Scene. But what about you? As usual, you ask a lot of questions but you don't share much of your own suspicions. So, who are your main suspects and why?


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Korotan: ZFR for random voting in the start. It could have been just a joke or an calculated plan.
Well, he usually starts the game with a random vote. This time he experimented a bit to find out whether we have to bold votes and so on. ... He could have asked the mod instead. But all in all that start isn't damning in my eyes.
I've been in a bit of a funk the last few days. Let's get to business.


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PookaMustard: Okay. Please tell me how is knowing this hypothetical blocked NK target is knowledge the mafia seeks? I am not asking for that target's role, or who did the shooting of the target and failed. Just the NK target. The knowledge of the hypothetical NK target is something the mafia already knows about. [...]
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HypersomniacLive: In post #337 you said [emphasis added[

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PookaMustard: [...] Figuring out who was saved from the nightkill could tell us something about what the mafia set its sights on. [...]
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HypersomniacLive: I asked you to elaborate, and you said you did in your post #339, and pointed me to the following part of your post where you laid out why you want to know who the intended NK-target was [emphasis added]:

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PookaMustard: I'd like to know who it was on the basis that this would tell us something about the target. This hypothetical target could be a role with some kind of immunity, but the more telling thing I believe is that it would tell us that they were town, as I don't think scum would shoot their own at this point of the game. If you ask everyone who their top targets are, you'd see different answers across the board, with few agreements about who deserves to be lynched. So by knowing this information, we narrow down the list of unknown people. Of course, I don't believe it'll be given on a silver platter.
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HypersomniacLive: Here you're saying that you just want to know who it was, as in just their name. Déjà vu?
Pretty much their name.

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PookaMustard: [...] Also, while your question and observation has merits, does it matter how I answer? If I get unmasked, Joe will be saying that I am of the Heroes. [...]
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HypersomniacLive: Do you think it doesn't matter? How do you think we decide who to lynch? Even if you're referring to being unmasked by a NK (are you?), does it not matter until then (assuming you're actually going to be NK-ed at some point)?

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PookaMustard: [...] That is a flaw in my argument that contradicts my focus on the serial killer. I'll have to admit my point about the NK being town would be wrong. Taking that into account, the NK is probably non-mafia - town or a third faction. [...]
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HypersomniacLive: And I see you either haven't read all the posts carefully, or you want us to think so.
I think it doesn't matter, but I'll entertain the thought.

I am a Hero.

However, the big question here is, do you believe me? Nobody would admit to being a Villain, so for all I know, you probably have a hunch I am lying. This also goes well with me not reading all the posts carefully (I'll admit I skim some of the posts and haven't made much of a contribution on the blotunga slip thing).

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PookaMustard: [...] I'm still of the opinion that mafia wouldn't target mafia at this time in the game, judging by how we're still not decided about our choices for lynching. [...]
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HypersomniacLive: [emphasis added]

Interesting. So, you can see some point in the game where the mafia would NK one of their own? Why do you think they'd do it, and what would they gain from it?
I can see them doing it as a form of disowning. Basically "our scumbuddy is about to slip information, we don't want him to do that," and then remove them. I don't believe this scenario happened (or is about to happen) given what we have so far. There can be other scenarios where this is probable, but that's the one on my head right now.


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PookaMustard: [...] I'd like to believe that the SK would not oust themselves that brazenly (unless there happens to be some role shenanigans that allow the mafia two night kills). [...]
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HypersomniacLive: And how would this hypothetical SK know if the mafia has two NKs?
By the mafia themselves pulling off two NKs. Then again, I don't know if a specific set of roles can allow mafia to have two NKs.

About blotunga's slip, I think I'm erring on the side of it being a slip and not a deliberate expectation that ZFR would appear in the post. However, I can't deny it can be looked at later, especially if we gain info on any of blotunga (the center of the conflict), ZFR (a subject of the topic) or supplementscene (the prime prosecutor of the conflict). My take is, rather than focus on blotunga now, we should focus on scene first, ZFR next and blotunga last.

As for the lack of votes, I still haven't decided on who to vote for. The scum so far have been well hidden to me, and given my experience with the game (or lack thereof), D2 seems even harder than D1. I predict there's a high chance of a mislynch.

But if going by my guts, I'd choose SPF (due to not responding to my D1 vote on scene until after several joke posts later) or scene (something about his hammering down on blotunga).


I really expected Mafia to be much simpler than that, with only vanilla roles to go for them.
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Lifthrasil: . ... He could have asked the mod instead. But all in all that start isn't damning in my eyes.
You missed the point of that. I wasnt experimenting to see if bold votes really count.
I intended to stop doing the random.org opening from now on as I said before. So for the lastgame I did it in, as a joke I wanted to "experiment" by doing a fake random vote inatead, one that doesnt count, and then be shocked at the "results" of how the lack of random vote is so mych better for town. Stupid, I know, but thats all it was.