Obviously I don't blame Chinese people in general for the virus (though I will admit that I found reports about certain aspects of Chinese food culture which may be conducive to zoonoses rather disgusting), and of course it wasn't intentional. But it's not like China did all that much to prevent spread of the virus to other parts of the world, iirc back in January they protested against even the thought of travel restrictions for Chinese citizens. And let's not be naive: in part the response to this crisis is a competition between systems, and the CCP has every intention imo of using it for a propaganda victory for its own system (of course they're greatly aided in that by the stunning incompetence of Western elites).
I won't write more on this matter, since it might get too political, and I don't want Gog moderators to lock this thread.

In the year 2020, toilet paper became the new currency worldwide. Except in China and maybe South Korea, they seem to handle the situation pretty well, considering it was pretty grim there.

They're kinda like bottle caps in Fallout now :P! I wonder what the value of Rice and Pasta will be.

Also, that goes out to anyone reading this. Don't trust scaremongering articles that say that millions or billions are/will be infected by this. Just do the necessary hygene precautions as laid out by the WHO and you will be fine.

This is nothing new. I don't have the research papers on hand because it was quite a long time ago (decades), but fairly sure that I've read predictions that another outbreak would've happened somewhere around 2018 and 2019, reading papers about SARS from 2007 and the papers that discuss the most recent H1N1 outbreak around 2010 or so. I'm no virologist however, just a hobby statistician however.

Not only that, but scientists did predict another outbreak with upmost certainty in 2017. It clearly was a simple matter of time for many scientists that SARS-Cov-2 would've happened again.

I've read about the virus having pretty much no NAb resistance though, which is a very good thing. Fairly sure that counter pandemic measurements (like homogenic vaccination) may happen during mid/late august or even earlier.

There is also analysis of SARS-CoV that I've been reading recently, perhaps its of interests to some. Its a bit of a scary read, but news of SARS-CoV-2 just about 1:1 similar to past research of SARS, which means we're pretty much dealing with SARS MK2 now (which is is, if you look at the virus from an outsiders perspective, it basically upgraded its way to infect people but the symtoms of covid-19 and SARS are very similar, here is another piece of data that complement this). Without fearmongering too much, I think its common sense to become ready for SARS MK3 within the next 5 to 15 years again after this outbreak is over, depending how much this pandemia will accelerate things globally in a negative way.

One major rule applies, the more people prepare when it comes to another more potent rise of SARS, the higher the chances to counter another pandemic outbreak quickly. Right now I do suspect that infections rise to be arouind 475.000 people maximum, but it is my own liberal estimation/guesswork. Its quite a high number, but nothing too scary, considering it accounts for everyone globally.

I also hope so(for those who rely on such).

That said, this is why it's a good idea that people don't put all their eggs into one basket(relying, in this case, on tourism income) IF they can help it.
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Yup....oddly enough, though, a post awhile back about pandemic/plague related games(not poking fun at anyone or anything like that) by another user got buried in low rates.
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While I don't think people should panic/worry needlessly over this(it would only make it worse for some), I ALSO don't think people should be too complacent/dismissive of this**.

Also it very likely won't be billions, but I think it's likely the infections(total) when all is said/done will breach the low millions at the very least(if they haven't already with the china/etc infections).

(**=I'm not saying you're doing so with this, btw)

Yes, you are right. The reason why corononavirus is dangerous and is threated as something worse than the flu is, the lack of natural immuninity, vaccine, enough knowledge and speed of contagion whch causes potential collapse in the health systems. You can not have a freely rampant virus that if it is not stopped it can be be stational and recurrent and potentialy mutable.
So the importance of radical measures.

So It is worse than the flu? I think NOW It is, But in the near future It won´t.
It is worse than the flu in number of deaths? "It is not worse by the number of deaths", at least reading the numbers in China, and "if the correct measures are made" it wont be.

I hope I am explaining myself. This is not something clearly black or white, it depends on what are you measuring and focusing.

Greetings

Thanks for your reply, I mostly agree. However, one shouldn't forget that the epidemic was only brought under control in China by really extreme measures, and so far the response in Europe has been rather inefficient. So I think for the time being the potential of very high numbers of deaths due to Covid-19 shouldn't be underestimated.

well i never thought that this whole crisis would come out like this. but hopefully this shortage is just a side effect of many people panicking and after a week there will be toilet paper and other stuff in stores again. i'm currently thinking about alternatives to toilet paper, in case its not going to get better.
btw, if you look here, it says that almost as much people died in itany as in china. its kinda strange and i wonder if the numbers for china could be faked?

It could be, but it depends on how the doctors determine the cause of the death (you will most likely die from SARS due to multiple illnesses). It varies significantly from country to country due to different health standards. Some declare you as healed once you feel better, other countries have different measurements. The way to determine somebody as cured is definitely not homogenous.

I'd say that China is most likely not faking anything, they just use a different method of declaring who is healthy and who isn't. But its difficult for me to say this considering I've never talked to a chinese health specialist. Of course you can have a little bit of healthy skepticism towards this matter. After all, China also cares about its own image so they can sell that the vision that the country itself is as strong and stable as possible, so the population doesn't become displeased with their own government. Thats because the way on how the population finds the state trustworthy is embedded within their culture.

I worried something(some sort of world wide problem) might happen, so I stocked up a bit on some things before all this(in case of ANY emergency).....some of my family laughed at me a bit for doing so, but now they're happy to have some things from my supplies(and I am happy to share, of course).

As for alternates.....I also have paper towels(good ones and cheap ones) if need be. If you can find any and can't get any TP i'd recommend that(Just DON'T flush it).

Dunno if the rumors are true, but some said the CO(CO2?) emissions and other data showed/hinted at the chinese burning large amounts of bodies of those that died.....but who knows if that is true or not. :\
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Also to the few low rating me even here/now: Don't you have loved ones to tend to and take care of during all this and more important things to worry about that keeping this dumb low rating up even during a world wide crisis such as this?

Priorities, people....priorities.

NEWS:
Today Italy's death toll (3405) overtook China's (3245) and the epidemic has not yet reached its peak.

My apologies...I wasn't trying to act as if i'm uncaring with what I said & I hope people start recovering from this soon enough/not many die from this.

That said, If its that bad and tons of people will die then shouldn't they be allowed to enjoy their lives(if done safely and with the proper precautions) a bit before they kick it?

Read back....I wasn't saying people shouldn't follow the rules set in place(if the periods aren't overly long...like 6+ months/etc)...I was mostly asking about how people might deal with things if such rules were extended for extremely long periods/if the govts and such tried to enact draconian measures in the name of safety.

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God, that is so bad I cannot even find the words.....may all who died or will die be at peace, and those sick start to recover as soon as possible(and in large numbers) so that someday we can out this terrible moment in history behind us.

Also OP: Dunno if you're a praying man, but you and yours and all of Italy are in my prayers, for what it's worth.

Well, considering fear has always been a tool in getting more power, and governments around the world now is trying to undermine democratic freedoms by trying to get ultimate power for an unspecified time (to use force later?), I'm a little worried... Norway's government is now trying to use this situation to get unlimited power in record time. The pre-hearing was closed without any discussion.

Also, Trump and FDA has just approved an older malaria drug in record time against corona without much evidence to back it up. Further, China is a massive producer of medicines to the world and they still gesticulate with their show of power and rhetorics. They do seem to already have a dictator with several "re-education centers"...

Wasn't it Franklin that said: "Those who would give up essential liberty, to purchase a little temporary safety, deserve neither liberty nor safety. ".

Tbh this reminds me of the film V For Vendetta(disease spreads, govts take power and don't let it go). (Important bits at 1:43 and also 2:03....but the whole thing is good and worth watching, imo.

Tbh we might need to speed up certain research methods/approval processes in this case.

That said, I know some countries are like that....I don't want it to become a world wide thing, or even more so, though.

Dunno, but GOOD quote....was gonna post it before.

I wonder if this pandemic will single-handedly kill Italy's tradition of cheek kissing.

Likely because they are performing what many see as an exception to the rule so such people essentially end up getting a free-er pass than others.

Well said

(And yeah it's getting a bit "insane" even in some places that aren't hot spots.....in the one article I linked here earlier an official hosted a very small function at a local diner with sanitiser/social distancing/washing hands and people still derided him and the others for it)

I'd watch it(or re-watch it if you did so already)....some of it is eerily similar to what's happening now(well the backstory before most of the main story, anyways)....virus spreads, govt officials of the UK(in the film) use it and the ensuing fear to gain large amounts of power and hold onto it/do bad things under the guise of safety.
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Eh, I think a stern talking to and escorting said people home would work and be the best solution in such cases.

That said, the problem is these sort of measures should have gone into effect the moment we knew of this illness in China....NOT on the last minute, as many countries have done.

So much love and respect to China an Cuba for helping Italy. <3