Yes, I cut out the wrong part accidentally.

Your understanding of odds is wrong. My previous games have no effect on how this one got rolled.

Or it is supposed to indicate that. It is possible that the statement was false and was just a Town-signalling. It is also possible that his PR didn't change but his alignment did. In any case it was an unnecessary statement about a role ... trent would have a field day with this if he were playing in this game!

Yes, I absolutely agree. In this case however I see two things: (a)it's role madness, and vanilla isn't mentioned in the list (though I guess it could be a "default" role that exists anyway) and (b) the reset happened.

I said I don't want to outguess the mod, but if it were me, I'd roll for 2 scum, then adjust only the few town roles that changed, leaving most intact.

We know yogs was non-scum pre reset.

Let's assume he rolled scum. His PR has to change(*). Would he risk making a "my role didn't change" statement then? For all he know Joe rerolled everything, so making such a statement could be risky if it can be easily shown that no other people's roles stayed same. Which is why I don't see yogs making such a statement.

Then again, this is yogs who admitted being Slytherin because no one would take it seriously.


(*) Looking at the roles now, you make a good point: his faction could change, while his role stays same.

Anyway, those are just some musings on my part. As you said there are many possibilities, and knowing yogs he could be making such a statement as either faction for the lulz. I'd like to hear more from yogs, and for the time being I'm happy with my vote being where it is.

I guess I meant fate/chance/luck/whatever you want to call it, of any player only rolling scum once in how many consecutive games*.

(* of course, come to think of it I hardly ever seem to roll scum either...although I think I have been scum more than you in the games we shared)

Anyways, there is one thing that would make a player(any player) more likely to get scum in this game, and that is the lesser number of players.....which is partly why I feel there's a decent chance at least one of you/Dogmaus is scum.

So then, question(if you'd be so kind): quick summary...who are the top players you'd vote for & the top players you suspect atm and why?
(or if you already posted such, point out the post number and i'll go back and read/re-read it)

Whatever you call it, it's still wrong. Previous games have zero effect on how this one is rolled.

#135

Yeah, I wish trent were here lol.

It was literally just my amusement at the sequence of PMs. I know we're super super antsy and modkill-happy around here, so I can't quote, but can paraphrase, right? It's just the sequence was like "Here's your role!" "Nah J/K LOL NEW ROLE" "Here's your role!" and they were literally identical. I'm sure it was just blind luck of the re-roll, but it just struck me as really amusing.

Either that or Joe REALLY wanted me to have this Town Arsonist role.

Anyway, let me catch up some, and I'll try to flex some legit reads on y'all.

Eh, we can agree to disagree on this I guess.

Thx

Going to try to sprinkle some ISO tone reads into thread throughout the day

I'm starting with the players I don't know just to get a feel for them

Starting with Gamerz

My first impression is that this is a person with some experience

lots of content, posts flow, asking questions and more importantly follows up on the answers

this looks pretty good

*GR reads post, blinks a bit, re-reads*

"Whaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaat?!?"

Next up is ettac (catte?)

bunch of nothing posts, RVS vote

then I shared this thought before I read dog's post:

then we have this

This is pretty classic scum move from the old school

Vote player A (in this case microfish), throw shade on player B (in this case pooka), and walk it all back because you know you're wrong ("probably perfectly innocent") and don't want to be on the hook

I think this is a pretty good place to start

I had to go back and actually dig it up

Here

lol

Also, I realize I used "good" to mean two totally different things in my prior two posts

Gamez "looks good" meaning looks like a townie thought process

ettac "good place to start", meaning that's a scum read

In that case you disagree with science, more specifically with maths and statistics.

You fall prey to the exact fallacy that leads players to lose lots of money in gambling. "Oh, I lost twenty times in a row, so I MUST win now! I better bet more money!" ... Nope. Previous die rolls have no effect at all on the next die roll. Dice (or other random number generators) have no memory of previous rolls. They just have their fixed chances. Rolling a 6 on an even die will always have the chance of 1/6-th. No matter how many non-sixes you rolled before.

(however, after the 10-th 6 in a row I would start doubting the fairness of the die)

Well, I can understand that. You're the only one who can pull off that specific role!


... and agree with a town player in an ongoing conflict to buddy up to him. But not too strongly, keeping all options open. So the 'I haven't read everything but ZFR is making sense' statement would fit your theory too. Especially if ZFR vs dogmaus turns out to be T on T.

You might be on to something there.

Trying to read dogmaus, and man there's a lot here

vague impression - newerish player but going 100% to the wall

maybe I'm wrong

I don't think this is scum, there's just too much all over the place here, zero pretense

you could nitpick a point here or there, an odd reaction to Lift maybe, some over-focus on ZFR, but I think overall the flow is there

microfish

very little content thus far

The initial vote on me is fine, but you'd like to see a little development there, or some looks at something or someone else along the way


strictly null pile for now

grade is "incomplete"

I see it the other way round. I have been forced to answer to him because how how he has been nagging at me, and the most suspicious thing I have on him is his over-dramatic rection when I said to him that this beween us might be TvT. He seems intentioned to vote for me no matter what, basically even if I am town.