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JoeSapphire: Hopefully I'll do more of both. I mean, the Caesar's derpclear was just me remembering something that I said on Day One - just we can see that it has more merit now that we know more of the setup - so I guess I have been doing these posts from the beginning?
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GameRager: Could you(or someone else) explain what the derpclear was(what post/posts and why) for Caesar?
Caesar says it would probably be safe for Slytherin to have a mass name-claim.

zfr chips in that HP knowledge ISN'T essential, but WOULD help.

Conclusion - a mass name claim would harm slytherin, and Caesar didn't know that.

Therefore - Caesar's not slytherin.


I reckon
Unvotus JoeSapphire

The claim sounds good. The strongest part of it is the SPF part. The ways to fake it that come to mind might be just:

1. [delirious_mode]Yogs NKs SPF, then self-votes in order to provide the remaining Slyth with strong Townie credit.[/delirious_mode]
2. Something like an even-day-SK might have done the trick. It seems like a very weird combination, but we have seen weird combinations already in this game.

All in all, the claim might well be true since the alternatives are rather baroque.

About the use of powers, it looks risky: why taking out someone if he was not quite sure yet (others were)? Instead of protecting GR, since Joe already had found out about GR's role?

In any case, it seemes that luck might have helped, if the claim is true.

Now, about Joe's readings: NOT buying the "derpclear" about Caesar. The post mentioned does not appear to be AI, unless there is some reasoning that has not been explained. ConsulCaesar might be Town or not, but that post does not clear him at all, as seen from here.

True that Lift vs Agent looked weird, but it might be interpreted on a very staunch defense of policy. But also, not getting here what is there against Pooka, so you might be seeing things that have escaped the eyes of others.

@GR: Question 4. is not the best to be made at this point, and @Joe has correctly eluded replying to it, from a Town perspective.

________________


@GR, AgentCarr: Thank you!! You are too kind! Glad that you enjoyed it =) *bows deeply*
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JoeSapphire: This is Carradice at the beginning of Day 4:
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Carradice:
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JoeSapphire: So, I have nice town readings, I look better than SirP.
A little later, after I had made One Post, this is Carradice's read:
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Carradice:
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JoeSapphire: So something changed in the post I have linked to above, to make me read like SirP, and not feel especially town.
Gaaaah I don't need to start suspecting people I have already been thinking were cleared.
Damn good point tho. But it requires Carradice to be a GF. I'm still not sold on that theory, but it's more possible than... maybe one player whose character is a pair ot twins?
This game gets more confusing the more I think I understand it. If it weren't for the comfortable situation we as Town are in with two scum out of the field I think I would be desolated/panicky.

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JoeSapphire: I also found this:

A nice summary of a sort-of derplclear of Caesar's early game, which I'd forgotten about.

So Caesar was saying early on that we should do a name claim because it's unlikely to be game breaking. Now that we've seen scum names we know that a full name claim could go pretty disastrously - therefore I don't think Caesar knew the scum's names, therefore I don't think Caesar's scum.
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JoeSapphire: Caesar says it would probably be safe for Slytherin to have a mass name-claim.

zfr chips in that HP knowledge ISN'T essential, but WOULD help.

Conclusion - a mass name claim would harm slytherin, and Caesar didn't know that.

Therefore - Caesar's not slytherin.

I reckon
Yeah... No I can't agree with this. A full name claim could go pretty disastrously for Town! It is very obvious why it would be in scum's interest to push that claim. Disastrous enough, in fact, that it would be worth for scum sacrificing one of their own to achieve that town blunder. Scum would love to discover characters more likely to be attuned with the best PRs, and it would have to be made during D1 when townies didn't have a chance to compare their names and their roles to realize a connection.

There's a leap to go from that to "therefore this proves Caesar is scum", but there is an even bigger leap to "therefore this proves Caesar is town." At least for me the suspicion continues the same.

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Lifthrasil: One of the two of you is not making a lot of sense. The other one is probably scum. But if you both should be Town, you both have dropped the ball quite a bit this game. (Sorry, no offense meant).
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JoeSapphire: So when I get mislynched it's my fault, not yours? Pretty sure this is scum lift.
Technically, it's not Lift's fault you wrote that you had panicked, and Lift is right that Town would have no reason to panic seeing one scum headed for the gallows. At least not an obvious reason.


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JoeSapphire: If I was putting the third vote on him after suspecting him of being copped, I KNOW he is in danger of being lynched.

If I KNOW FOR CERTAIN Yogsloth is scum, and his lynch would panic me I'm going to do my panicking before I start writing that post. Not after he gives himself up.

If I knew exactly what he meant because we were scumbuddies, his self-vote would NOT make me panic. It would probably just make me sigh wearily.
This much I can agree with. Doesn't fully explain the panic, but it makes sense that you'd panic before not during your vote

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JoeSapphire: ANYHOW, there's not much point in trying to delay this claim any longer.

I'm Fred & George Weasely, Gryffindor, Town Jack-Of-All-Trades. The twins have snuck a bunch of experimental wands onto the field and are tag-teaming.

Night One I psychoanalysed GameRager (about time somebody did, am I right GR? ;) )

Night Three I protected GameRager

Am I forgetting something? Oh Yeah! Night Two I vig'ed SirPrimalform.
Hmmm I suspect the character claim somewhat... Would ZFR create a role composed of two characters only because they're twins?
Barring that a JOAT fits them pretty well. I would expect them as independent masons, if anything; or out of the game entirely. I'm thinking it's reasonable to believe you unless counterclaims.
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joppo: Gaaaah I don't need to start suspecting people I have already been thinking were cleared.
In case anyone missed it, post #1086 establishes how, on Day 2, SPF changed his line abruptly, with ONE SINGLE POST. Then continued with his weirdness. The parallel with Joe on Day 4 is striking. Is it the fault of the person changing or the fault of those who actually, and accurately, notice it?
Meaning, one single post and then sustained weirdness, thus starting a new play line. Not a single weird post (which could have been interesting on its own, too).

____

Agreed on the mass claiming being damaging for Town.

Joppo makes sense and earns Town points with this post.

Some of Joe's actions and statements do not make sense, but that does not mean that he is necessarily scum. More like the fallibility of human nature.

If Joe's claim is true, that would leave fewer suspects. That is something to be glad for, not confused about. The confusion comes from the false conclusion of taking all his judgements as right, when he might well be wrong, and that has nothing to do with what his PM says.
If Joe is Town, the obvious choices are:

Pooka, trent.

From set 2 (see post #1047).

Now, remaining guys from set 1 (people who were set on the two innocents at once on D2): Caesar, Lift.

Thinking that scum might not want to have all their eggs in the same basket, set 2 seemed more likely. On the other hand, yogs imprinted a brazen quality to scum, seen on D1 with his example, and on D2 (after N1 scumchat) when SPF recovered from his D1 shyness (for a pyrric victory, as ge got Flocke taken to lunch on D2, but revealed himself to be scum in the process) (see #1086 if you missed it). So, maybe Scum3 felt safe enough to openly hold both innocents as suspicious?


Now, back onto the obvious suspects (this is the dificult part), from a personal point of view:

ConsulCaesar: Lurky, fishy. A little better on D4, but has had time to improve his game.
trent: with Agent in not wanting to believe he is scum... He sounds like solid Town, even when his past actions speak against him.
Pooka: colour-blind about him. Please continue to enlighten.

The not so obvious:

Lift: Lift: Sounds like a zelous town. Pooka, Joe thinks him scum.
Joppo: lurky. Sometimes makes sense, sometimes not. Is that scumminess or human nature?
Vote Count

Joe 2 - Caesar, Lift
trent 1 - Pooka
Lift 1 - Joe

Not voting - Micro, joppo, agent, GameRager, trent, Carradice

10 Players. Takes 6 to lynch.
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joppo: Carradice: I would have some reservations to the risk of directing suspicions with his spreadsheet,
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Carradice: FOR THE RECORD: the data that feed the spreadsheet are public. The formulae have been published. The spreadsheet is replicable. Plus (big plus) cheating with it would not be any fun. It will never be done by this player, in this game or in any other game. Remember that all the work with the spreadsheet (and the magical snakes*) has been done for fun.

Great care has been taken in explicitly separating fact from opinion in all posts involving anything related with the spreadsheet.
I'm sorry, I didn't mean to imply that you would do it as scum, just that the strategy would be open if a scum were to try and it would not be against the rules.

After all, if a scum!Carradice were to try it would be my fault to let myself believe a spreadsheet more than my own suspicions. It would be a low blow of course, but only held back by one's moral code. And I could not make assumptions about that regarding people I had no prior contact with.

But if I had reservations before I am fairly more convinced of at least the honesty of the work placed in the spreadsheet by now.
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joppo: Technically, it's not Lift's fault you wrote that you had panicked, and Lift is right that Town would have no reason to panic seeing one scum headed for the gallows. At least not an obvious reason.
According to Lift, though, I didn't panic when I saw that a scum was heading to the gallows - I went to put the third vote on a cop-caught scum, THEN panicked when the cop-caught scum voted for themself.

This is not the first game I've described myself as panicking - indeed, when I said I panicked, I wasn't even referring to this specific incident, I was referring to my general tendency to panic.

So when a passing, tongue-in-cheek, fairly typical comment gets presented as dropping-the-ball-quite-a-bit, I feel justified in calling shenanigans.


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Carradice: About the use of powers, it looks risky: why taking out someone if he was not quite sure yet (others were)? Instead of protecting GR, since Joe already had found out about GR's role?

In any case, it seemes that luck might have helped, if the claim is true.
I didn't think the scum would be onto GameRager Night 2 -
I wanted to hang on to the Doctor as it can be a big swing late in the game.
But I thought the vigilante kill would become more dangerous as the Day goes on - I didn't want to be in a position where I had to hit scum or lose the game for everybody.

And yeah, admittedly luck was on my side.



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Carradice: Now, about Joe's readings: NOT buying the "derpclear" about Caesar. The post mentioned does not appear to be AI, unless there is some reasoning that has not been explained. ConsulCaesar might be Town or not, but that post does not clear him at all, as seen from here.

True that Lift vs Agent looked weird, but it might be interpreted on a very staunch defense of policy. But also, not getting here what is there against Pooka, so you might be seeing things that have escaped the eyes of others.
I'm not clearing Caesar absolutely, but I think a scum would be wary about suggesting a mass name claim - especially someone new to gog who doesn't know our usual habits regarding that sort of thing.
Somebody said it might reveal the town roles to the mafia, which might be worth sacrificing one scum for - but why is only ONE scum at risk? A mass name claim might reveal ALL the mafia to the town.

This and the fact that Yogsloth was going after him Day One make Caesar Not A Priority for me right now.

What was Lift vs Agent, sorry?

I've moved Pooka into 'leaning town' because I got mixed signals from his interaction with the mafia.

My Scum-to-Townommetre has given me:

Lifthrasil
Trentonlf
Joppo
Pooka
Caesar
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JoeSapphire: He's not LOUD he's EPIC.

He's also 3-SHOT.

For my hint that I psychoanalysed GameRager, please see this knowing wink in response to his delightful feigned ignorace:

I wanted to use the psychoanalysis first because it seemed to be the least useful of my powers, and there didn't seem to be much point in agonising who to analyse so I went for GameRager partly out of just interest, and so I could make the joke "about time somebody did..."
I saw that, and figured you might have gotten what I was trying to hint at with all my prior posts. :)

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JoeSapphire: 1 - No real reason, sorry. The choice didn't seem worth stressing over. I got the impression you were being quite friendly with me early in the game, and I was just interested in what you had going on.

2 - It was a bit of a spur-of-the-moment decision. I'd thought he was a bit odd on Day One, but I kind of put it to one side and didn't think about it. Then when night came it just occurred to me that he was being very lurky again and I thought it was worth taking a shot.

3 - Uhhh... it was the thing about how you were the cop and had just all-but-claimed that you'd copped scum. I knew you were the cop because I knew you were the epic one. It worked out pretty neat!

4 - Maybe I don'ts, maybe I dooses.
1. Sounds good.....and yeah I try to be friendly with everyone when I play......well unless I suspect them or am trying to add some "snarky" flavor to a game, that is. :D

2. Also sounds good....also if that "taking a shot" bit was an intentional pun then well played, good sir. :)

3. That it did....well, so far that is.....let's not let all our guards down until the last scum is in the hospital wing.

(To all who know what this means: No "popping magikal champagne" too early, either ;))

4. Fair enough. :)

(And tbh I didn't think you'd answer this one....I was just curious, is all)
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JoeSapphire: Caesar says it would probably be safe for Slytherin to have a mass name-claim.

zfr chips in that HP knowledge ISN'T essential, but WOULD help.

Conclusion - a mass name claim would harm slytherin, and Caesar didn't know that.

Therefore - Caesar's not slytherin.

I reckon
Maybe....though couldn't a scum use such a tactic to act town?

Regardless, that sort of thing leans them more town in my eyes than scum, so thanks for pointing that out. :)
===============================================================

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Carradice: All in all, the claim might well be true since the alternatives are rather baroque.
Nice use of that word, and reminding me of this one hard as balls Wii game. :)

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Carradice: About the use of powers, it looks risky: why taking out someone if he was not quite sure yet (others were)? Instead of protecting GR, since Joe already had found out about GR's role?
Imo he might've done it as I wasn't so "loud" with my crumbing on that "day", but more so the next "day". Also(if his claim rings true) he only had one use of each power, so he likely wanted to save it for when it was most needed.

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Carradice: @GR: Question 4. is not the best to be made at this point, and @Joe has correctly eluded replying to it, from a Town perspective.
True, but that essentially paints another target on his back(if he's town), so I hope he doesn't get NKd over it.

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Carradice: @GR, AgentCarr: Thank you!! You are too kind! Glad that you enjoyed it =) *bows deeply*
:D
=================================================================

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ZFR: 10 Players. Takes 6 to lynch.
Speaking of LUNCH(As Micro calls it)...when is LUNCH to be served, at the LATEST, Prof. Dumbledore?

(As in when is deadline again? Also this line is NOT a vote, btw)
=================================================================

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JoeSapphire: This is not the first game I've described myself as panicking - indeed, when I said I panicked, I wasn't even referring to this specific incident, I was referring to my general tendency to panic.
As I do this a good amount IRL(and second guess things as well) I know how that feels.

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JoeSapphire: But I thought the vigilante kill would become more dangerous as the Day goes on - I didn't want to be in a position where I had to hit scum or lose the game for everybody.

And yeah, admittedly luck was on my side.
It seems to have also been on mine as well as I luckily picked Yogs that one night to investigate. :)
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GameRager: Speaking of LUNCH(As Micro calls it)...when is LUNCH to be served, at the LATEST, Prof. Dumbledore?

(As in when is deadline again? Also this line is NOT a vote, btw)
Why are you asking Dumbledore?

Friday evening UTC.
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ZFR: Why are you asking Dumbledore?

Friday evening UTC.
Mis-remembering and thinking you were playing the role of dumbledore in this game.

Also thanks. :)
Oh FFS! I lost another long post on the mobile. Now I'm home and try to reconstruct it.

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JoeSapphire: and that "you've dropped the ball (no offense)" remark. I have been scumhunting my heart out this game, and this comment is a very easy way for Lifthrasil to assert that my mislynch is JOE's fault, and not LIFTHRASIL's.

He told me not to, but I took offense nevertheless.
So you're scumreading me because you are hurt. I'm sorry that I have offended you, but that makes your 'scumread' quite OMGUS-y. Also, I wasn't the one who said that it would be your fault if you get lynched. That was you. You chose to interpret my statement in that way. I just wrote that, if you are Town, you dropped the ball and I think that is a quite accurate description. That you read that as blame is an unfortunate choice on your part.

Try to read your own back-and-forth about Yogs while imagining that those posts come from someone else. You yourself would read them as scummy too. The flip-flopping, the entirely unnecessary panic. I think 'you dropped the ball' is a warranted observation. It is interesting that Trent is quite willing to accept that he made mistakes. And why not? We all make mistakes. You, however, read the observation that you made a mistake as scum-tell. Which is a mistake again.

But then again you scumreading me is quite normal across all recent games we played together. I missed that for most of this game. So all is as it should be again. ;-)


On to more serious things:
Joe's claim hasn't been counterclaimed and it contained several angles from which it could have been revealed as false if it was a false claim. But it wasn't challenged.
- no one else claimed to have protected GR, and we know that someone did protect him
- no one else claimed to have killed SPF or claimed to be a PGO or similar, but we know that SPF died.
- claiming not one but two names is risky. Sure, a double role is strange, but I wouldn't put it past ZFR to use one like this. Both of the twins are medium characters, so a scum false-claiming both doubles his risk that one of them is among the real Town players. Of course the twin-claim could be an elaborate 'Town-Arsonist' ploy, but I think the twins as JOAT actually fits the flavour.

So, with no counter-claim I rate Joe's claim as true and therefore I rate himself as mostly cleared.

unvotus Joe

(continued later)
Bumpus Givenus :D

(Not a vote)
Thanks.

Now how to proceed?

Trent: he still acted scummy in the past. We've been over that. His posts today felt towny, but he is good enough to fake that. Rationally I say: he's the best lynch candidate we have if we look for scum-tells. Emotionally I doubt my own read and feel that he is rather towny, even if frustrated. Still, he remains a valid candidate.

Consul: I don't see the derp-clear as clear-cut as Joe does. It might have been a genuine mistake of an inexperienced scum!Consul. Or it is also compatible with him being neutral, as some have speculated. --> Valid lynch target. Eliminating neutrals is usually beneficial for Town as well. Even if not so much as eliminating scum.

Pooka and Joppo: not much changed. Pooka was still the one who pushed a quite unrealistic narrative, as trent called it, as actual scum-read. And Joppo gave off the air of hiding in obscurity for parts of the game. Both have a number of towny looking posts as well. So both would be only emergency lynches for me to avoid a no-lynch.


On the bright side: if we decide to rate Joe as cleared based on his uncontested claim, then we have five mostly cleared players. That is almost enough to win purely by numbers. Not entirely (we would need one more), but we're in a good position. I am quite confident that if we eliminate all four of the above, we'll win. Since I know that I am Town and I rate the five cleared as cleared, I am quite sure that the remaining scum is/are amongst those four. The only flaw in this nice confidence is, that every one of these four will also claim to be 100% Town.

But in any case: what we may not do, under any circumstances, is no-lynch. Our Cop is out of shots, the protector that was effective was possibly one-shot as well. So the only way to win is to press our advantage and lynch one of the unconfirmed players each Day until we hit scum.