@ZFR: No Votus/Unvotus
in this post.
Carradice: Hypothesis 2:Microfish_1:
Set 1 contains no less
than 1 hostile.
Why the edit?
No edit but copy with changes, you know. Format and leaving a cleaner phrasing of the hypothesis.
The idea is reflecting on the questions posed, and providing rationales for refuting (or supporting) the statements proposed for discussion. The ultimate goal is trying to find a pocket where there is a higher chance of finding scum. @yogsloth proposed such a pocket, with an allegued likelihood of 1 in case @Micro flipped scum.
Here, we are discussing alternative pockets, so that we can examine every possibility before deciding where to put our chips.
_________________________ Hana-bi numerorum The layman explanation .................or................ How to use the bl00dy chart
As it has been requested:
Matrix 1: All the expressed suspicion
. The guy who expresses the opinion is in blue/cyan, the suspects in pink/violet. Just by looking at it, you will figure something out.
Matrix 2: A simplification. Everything is rounded to 1 or 0, but for pure 0.5 values. This is the stuff of which bandwagons are made. Useful for negotiation and engineering of bandwagons
The set of 7 indicators has been selected from a wider group as the most helpful and simpler to use. Their function is to summarize information. A variety of approaches is possible. A simple one might be:
1. Look at the column Average Heat
in order to see the average degree of suspicion for each one. If there is a tie, go for Weighted Heat or for Hard-Weighted Heat
(the two columns to the right). The colours will help interpreting: the redder, the worse. You can use also Chart 2
instead of the spreadsheet.
2. In the matrix below, see the columns Concurrence
and Hard Concurrence
, which appears with the unreadable name of 'Av Conc>0.5'. Can you find the file with your name? in the column Hard Concurrence
, the number you see is the number of people who is positively suspecting you, meaning a suspicion above 0.5. They might be swayed to vote for you, eventually. The column Concurrence
includes people with ambiguous reads of you, counted at half a point. This means that, to the people that is already suspecting you, we are adding half of the people who does not know what to make of you. You can use also Chart 3
for this (where Average Heat
is also included, for reference).
3. If you are feeling super lazy and just want to take a look at things at a glance, you cannot go too wrong if you go straight to Weighted Heat