Posted February 24, 2020
@Joppo: Actually, it is really simple algebra... Normalized weights lend themselves to be dealt with as matrices and matricial product. That inspired, in turn, the idea of the trust-weighted matrix and whe skill-weighted matrix. It would be nice if someone with an interest in algebra picked this up and considered if there were other concepts in algebra that could be successfully applied to the problem.
Also, remember, like it was said to Lift, that these matrices are just an aid, another tool in our arsenal, just that. In particular, they shine when there is need for negotiation. They can be used as "virtual bandwagons" for analysis (not forgetting to analyze actual bandwagons, especially successfully hammered bandwagons.
To give you just a few examples of its use:
1) Having a general idea of the state of declared opinion.
2) Noticing who are the 3rd, 4th, 5th suspects (since the two main ones often direct the debate, but there might be potentiality for other options).
3) Negotiation and engineering of bandwagons.
Real use scenario: On D2, Micro had 10 potential votes (that was a frightening sight), and Flocke 9. It was clear that we were having a lunch. Next were ConsulCaesar, yogsloth, Pooka. Tthis player tried to avoid the townie lunch with a third bandwagon, unsuccessfully; if successful, that could have given us the townie Flocke instead of the scummy Caesar, to our advantage. At least the IC was saved, so it was a partial victory (had been defending him even before his claim, since RWarehall's remark)
Then, for analysis:
i) Checking anyone's backhistory for consistency, opinions by flipped people, etc.
ii) Scum has to invent their views. An easy way to catch a liar is forcing them to use their memory. In general, lies are forgotten more easily than truth.
Examples: SPF clearing ConsulCaesar so casually after having given him a high suspicion rate (a 0.7).
Opinion patterns of yogsloth, SPF. See how yogs, being the lighting rod, avoided attacking his scum mates, but SPF was allowed to suspect him for distance.
iii) Examining the opinions of non-flipped players and live virtual bandwagons.
That lead to the post quoted in #1047
Still finding new uses for it. It is just a summary that condenses what people express about others, made numeric for an easier analysis. Nothing more and nothing less.
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Think of this: if we had processed ConsulCaesar instead of Flocke, now we might have another Joppo on the suspect pool, and things might be easier. On the other hand, if Micro's bandwagon had been successful (and this player did all what was possible to prevent that) things might be looking much worse.
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The new pink columns offer, in each column, a view on ho
Needless to say: the spreadsheet is replicable and the formulae have ben published. No need for an Hypocratic Oath, but consider it was made honestly. There would not be any fun in doing otherwise, and these calculations have been made for the fun of contributing to solve the problem.
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You missed completely that the comment on Flocke not understanding the meaning of hygiene was just an aside. Also you missed why HE not knowing the full meaning IS worrying. Of course, his lack of understanding of general knowledge of history added to the fact of not understanding that particular piece of wry humour.
The fact is that, even if he never seemed to be catching any of the jokes, that is his problem. Then, criticising someone saying that their comments "gives him the creeps" (WTF!) is surely bad. But, stepping on that to say that it seems like that person is scum is not knowing one iota of what this game is about. If you add to that the person he was attempting a chainsaw defense was the only one who was actively trying to help him, it adds insult to injury. It was ugly, bad play, bad form, bad manner.
And no, not going to explain that joke or any other. I someone is given a tool (like: take a look at the dictionary if you failed the first check) and said person neglects it, then it is absurd to keep trying. Help those who help themselves, that is a way to better focus your energy, quite often.
And now please explain how this helps in solving the game. The remark was made for the record, not for discussion here, and it was labelled explicitly as such.
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The underlining has been added for this comment.
Please enlighten this new player, since this game has been declared to be a modification of a C9++ setup, and being a semi-open setup, we have no clear idea of what the available roles are. Experience has confirmed that we are to expect highly inusual roles. That said, with yogs being a one-shot and SPF being vanilla, a strong Scum3 is to be expected. That, or two less strong players, Scum3 and Scum4. People seem to be having lots of faith on Scum numbering only 3. Who started saying that? Ah, yogsloth. He said so many things. At least Micro is considering the possibility of having 2 remaining scum, which is something.
IF there is a GF, his role has been apparently be left useless, which would be to our advantage. In any case, if Town only has a three-shot Cop, then the GF role is underwhelming in this particular setup. Is that balanced?
In any case, refer to the last point in this post.
This is not saying that anyone should get a free pass. FYI, this player noticed how RW and GR had painted targets on their backs themselves on D1, and noticed that GR was signalling, from D1, his role, which at the moment was thought to be maybe a bluff. Later he gained town points to these eyes, and more after N3 for various reasons, but there is still a little room for suspicion. This means: suspicion to be kept in a corner of your mind, not to be taken publicly to dominate the discourse and keeping people busy with that. THIS is to mud the waters. Sowing suspicion on Flocke for no reason was muddying the waters. Making everyone suspect everyone all the time, negating the value of the admittedly partial information we have, so that we think we know nothing, is muddying the waters. Taking the conversation astray, whenever it is closing on something important, is muddying the waters. This is a very anti-town behaviour. More examples?
=> There it goes, another text wall that contributes to distracting people. Made in order to answer questions that should not have been asked at this point. These questions belong in the next phase of the late game, not now. If we fail to round up the remaing scum and thereby were forced to re-evaluate.
Will not be making many of these, from now on. Be advised.
Now someone asks what this means. /facepalm.
Read again.
Scum3 may be happy :-|
Also, remember, like it was said to Lift, that these matrices are just an aid, another tool in our arsenal, just that. In particular, they shine when there is need for negotiation. They can be used as "virtual bandwagons" for analysis (not forgetting to analyze actual bandwagons, especially successfully hammered bandwagons.
To give you just a few examples of its use:
1) Having a general idea of the state of declared opinion.
2) Noticing who are the 3rd, 4th, 5th suspects (since the two main ones often direct the debate, but there might be potentiality for other options).
3) Negotiation and engineering of bandwagons.
Real use scenario: On D2, Micro had 10 potential votes (that was a frightening sight), and Flocke 9. It was clear that we were having a lunch. Next were ConsulCaesar, yogsloth, Pooka. Tthis player tried to avoid the townie lunch with a third bandwagon, unsuccessfully; if successful, that could have given us the townie Flocke instead of the scummy Caesar, to our advantage. At least the IC was saved, so it was a partial victory (had been defending him even before his claim, since RWarehall's remark)
Then, for analysis:
i) Checking anyone's backhistory for consistency, opinions by flipped people, etc.
ii) Scum has to invent their views. An easy way to catch a liar is forcing them to use their memory. In general, lies are forgotten more easily than truth.
Examples: SPF clearing ConsulCaesar so casually after having given him a high suspicion rate (a 0.7).
Opinion patterns of yogsloth, SPF. See how yogs, being the lighting rod, avoided attacking his scum mates, but SPF was allowed to suspect him for distance.
iii) Examining the opinions of non-flipped players and live virtual bandwagons.
That lead to the post quoted in #1047
Still finding new uses for it. It is just a summary that condenses what people express about others, made numeric for an easier analysis. Nothing more and nothing less.
____________________
Microfish_1: If we lunch the wrong guy, and the doc if any protects the wrong person etc, we lose 2 players / Day and in 4 Days have 0 confirmed-or-nearly-confirmed town. If we fail to find scum but take non-scum to lunch every day, at 10 players the game could end in 4 Days with a 1:1 tie-or even sooner if there are two scum.
This is what has been said repeated times: pick your shots, we can win this but do not feel comfortable yet. Now, if we throw away what we do know, then we are making it easy for them. Think of this: if we had processed ConsulCaesar instead of Flocke, now we might have another Joppo on the suspect pool, and things might be easier. On the other hand, if Micro's bandwagon had been successful (and this player did all what was possible to prevent that) things might be looking much worse.
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Microfish_1: I was looking at the horizontal row titled "Variance (Dispersion)". That is a concept I have forgotten.
Also, I'm not sure how to read the trust-o-meter chart, so despite all your hard work I shall leave it alone for now.
For confirmed scum, please leave their reads (like on me) alone so that we can more easily see who they were "clearing." That was why I asked for the long vs short sheet. Maybe it doesn't matter?
Those horizontal rows were mentioned on D2. They are part of the many little knobs and bolts in the spreadsheet. In particular, they measure how homogeneous a player's declarations about other players are. It is the inverse of the Controversy. For example, (taken from memory now), yogsloth's views were rather homogeneous. Also, the average, labelled "Severeness" offers the average suspicion probability that a particular player is offering about his peers. Also, I'm not sure how to read the trust-o-meter chart, so despite all your hard work I shall leave it alone for now.
For confirmed scum, please leave their reads (like on me) alone so that we can more easily see who they were "clearing." That was why I asked for the long vs short sheet. Maybe it doesn't matter?
The new pink columns offer, in each column, a view on ho
Needless to say: the spreadsheet is replicable and the formulae have ben published. No need for an Hypocratic Oath, but consider it was made honestly. There would not be any fun in doing otherwise, and these calculations have been made for the fun of contributing to solve the problem.
____________________
Microfish_1: I don't see the issue with Flocke taking exception to the use of the word "hygienic" the way you seem to be; I know that jokes sometimes don't cross heart-language lines very well.... I have told too many jokes that people of other countries have told me weren't funny when translated into their heart-language (the language you think in, no matter what it is) or their humor was such that they just didn't find it amusing.
Probably you do not know what the concept of hygiene, Hygiene, hygiène, higiene, hygiëne, igiene... means. It is a Greek word. You can check your favourite dictionary or even the Wikipedia. You missed completely that the comment on Flocke not understanding the meaning of hygiene was just an aside. Also you missed why HE not knowing the full meaning IS worrying. Of course, his lack of understanding of general knowledge of history added to the fact of not understanding that particular piece of wry humour.
The fact is that, even if he never seemed to be catching any of the jokes, that is his problem. Then, criticising someone saying that their comments "gives him the creeps" (WTF!) is surely bad. But, stepping on that to say that it seems like that person is scum is not knowing one iota of what this game is about. If you add to that the person he was attempting a chainsaw defense was the only one who was actively trying to help him, it adds insult to injury. It was ugly, bad play, bad form, bad manner.
And no, not going to explain that joke or any other. I someone is given a tool (like: take a look at the dictionary if you failed the first check) and said person neglects it, then it is absurd to keep trying. Help those who help themselves, that is a way to better focus your energy, quite often.
And now please explain how this helps in solving the game. The remark was made for the record, not for discussion here, and it was labelled explicitly as such.
____________________
The underlining has been added for this comment.
Please enlighten this new player, since this game has been declared to be a modification of a C9++ setup, and being a semi-open setup, we have no clear idea of what the available roles are. Experience has confirmed that we are to expect highly inusual roles. That said, with yogs being a one-shot and SPF being vanilla, a strong Scum3 is to be expected. That, or two less strong players, Scum3 and Scum4. People seem to be having lots of faith on Scum numbering only 3. Who started saying that? Ah, yogsloth. He said so many things. At least Micro is considering the possibility of having 2 remaining scum, which is something.
IF there is a GF, his role has been apparently be left useless, which would be to our advantage. In any case, if Town only has a three-shot Cop, then the GF role is underwhelming in this particular setup. Is that balanced?
In any case, refer to the last point in this post.
Microfish_1: @Everyone who isn't Carradice. Keep in mind that as town as I think he is, there is the possibility that he is 3rd party or even scum. I doubt it, but we won't know for sure until we find the scum. Ergo, take everything he says with a grain of salt.
The same can be said even of GR. Why this fixation with Carradice? It seems like you have forgotten who has been pointing a finger at both yogsloth and SPF as early as D1, trying to defend their marks almost single-handedly (completely alone in the case of Flocke). After nailing yogsloth on Day 3 solidly even before that GR posted?? Seriously, why??? This is difficult to understand. If you were not a confirmed IC, this would be enough to make you a suspect. If you have a case, make it at once. Else focus on whoever you think offers the best option to hit scum. This is not saying that anyone should get a free pass. FYI, this player noticed how RW and GR had painted targets on their backs themselves on D1, and noticed that GR was signalling, from D1, his role, which at the moment was thought to be maybe a bluff. Later he gained town points to these eyes, and more after N3 for various reasons, but there is still a little room for suspicion. This means: suspicion to be kept in a corner of your mind, not to be taken publicly to dominate the discourse and keeping people busy with that. THIS is to mud the waters. Sowing suspicion on Flocke for no reason was muddying the waters. Making everyone suspect everyone all the time, negating the value of the admittedly partial information we have, so that we think we know nothing, is muddying the waters. Taking the conversation astray, whenever it is closing on something important, is muddying the waters. This is a very anti-town behaviour. More examples?
=> There it goes, another text wall that contributes to distracting people. Made in order to answer questions that should not have been asked at this point. These questions belong in the next phase of the late game, not now. If we fail to round up the remaing scum and thereby were forced to re-evaluate.
Will not be making many of these, from now on. Be advised.
Now someone asks what this means. /facepalm.
Read again.
Scum3 may be happy :-|