What in particular prompted this? Who do you think is playing to a possibly outdated wincon, and why do you think their new wincon is the same as yours?

That's all well and good, but may be an issue in this particular mafia community. We have what I like to call the 'neutral' problem; that neutrals almost always side with town rather than actually attempting to win themselves.
I imagine we may face a similar issue here, where having your win condition changed will not necessarily effect people's play much...

then we get to call them losers after the game is over is all

hah

Eh, ok, whatever. I'll sit tight then until Hyper wants to share.

*twiddles thumbs*

Right? I was all prepared to do something semi-productive, but I suppose Drealmer is right that if I'm switched with an unknown quantity it's seemingly 50/50 that I would end up town or not.

Though how exactly he expects me to play to a completely unknown wincon I have no idea.

That said, I'm...moderately certain I'm going to end the game as town. Can't be sure though.

So, the family to the beach thing didn't happen, so also haven't had much time. In between of things, I've only gotten up to post 150 in my zeo reread (some interesting leads so far, but nothing conclusive), and then I noticed this:

I don't consider the following terribly likely, but would like some outside eyes to try the following theory out for size and tell me it's too farfetched - particularly since we're all waiting for things to get moving again anyway:

bler and drealmer are wolves, who were undeservedly lucky that the actual robber was in the middle and not seen by cristi (bler said something early on about such a bold claim being a possibility in theory, but not for him personally - I posit that he might still want to try and learn to be that bold, and that this game is the perfect proving ground for it, due to its relatively short length). Zeo is indeed minion, successfully redirecting attention away for all he's worth, and pushing the lone wolf and suspicious villager narratives to redirect attention away from that team-up even being considered. Trent is tanner.

I know the odds of this happening are really low, and I've been generally town-reading both bler and drealmer, but I consider each one totally capable of fooling me, so can anyone think of any particular interactions which would actually make it unlikely?

I'd wager 50/50 that's still to come.

In any case, while I have said I would be more open to being scum in a shorter game (like, say, on MU) than one of our normal marathon games, that's a far cry from coming out of the gate in an experimental game where I don't even understand basic mechanics and strategies and just balls-out lying my ass off about everything from post #1.

Like you think I just gambled, with no peek, since in this scenario I'd duo-wolfed, that either there'd be no seer or I'd just happen to pick the one card the real seer didn't peek?

Yeah, like seriously. No. I'd wager that one's even beyond what yogs would dare, and I trust in yogs to dare a whole lot of audacious shit.

I definitely started as robber. If you want to question anything beyond that, sure go nuts.


ebwop post-merge - not to mention the, what, 8/11 chance in this hypothetical scenario where I'm wolf w/ Drealmer randomly picking a PR and another player was really robber?

That robber was actually in the middle would be unplanned for in this scenario. You'd just gamble on being able to outbluff the real robber (same as zeo with cristi), since both you and the robber would have one "confirmed" swap (you due to your wolf-buddy).

I'm okay at twisting the truth a little (e.g. the PGO claim in drealmer's game that was entirely based on actual flavor and turned out to unwittingly be correct).

Making things up completely isn't really my forte. I'm also lousy at AtE, so going head-to-head in a bluff against someone else is both strategically unwise and just plain doesn't sound like fun to me.

probable post-merge edit to respond to your post-merge edit: I think a two-wolf team pretty much always has to outbluff at least a single PR, doesn't it? With both wolves attempting to hide amongst villagers, their odds are even worse, and... well, that's what I consider to be the more likely case of what's happening now, which you can see how well that's turning out for them. :)

Eh, maybe. The thing about going head-to-head with a PR is that it's still at best a 50/50 proposition, and probably worse than that in reality since that PR is likely to have actual information that might be corroborated whereas a twinned-wolf only knows who the partner is.

Even with an almost-certain to be swollen villager pool, presumably there's at least some advantage in that whoever you're going up against doesn't know anything.

By coincidence I saw the box version for this game at Target last night when I was in buying diapers. Not that that anecdote is particularly pertinent to the conversation. Not sure how I feel about this version as a forum game, honestly. Not entirely sure it's for me, though.

Just so you know, it's this kind of crazy theorizing that makes me think you might be scum.
Seems a bit too much like trying to draw attention away from your buddies potential lynch (trent in this case)

Sure, there is a chance the scenario you outline is true, but it's a very very slim one and bringing it up now feels a bit like a distraction.

Hmmm, let me think.... does it?



Would that change anything in regards to your win condition?



In this scenario, is Minion-zeogold pushing Tanner-trentonlf's lynch with the ultimate goal the village to lynch him instead of Tanner-trentonl? What is drealmer7 trying to achieve pushing the "Werewolf-trentonlf + Minion-zeogold" theory?



@bler144 - IIRC, you wanted to reread cristigale. Did you, and if yes, how are you reading her now?

And I'd be interested to hear what you think I'm doing, if you really want to share.