what about his play makes you think he's trying to get lynched?

If Hyper swapped me and bler, that makes bler the minion and me a villager right?

because he's not telling us I'm guessing it was blotunga

because he doesn't have a read on blotunga and wants to know the call to make

heh

I'll leave you two to guess which of you that's in response to.

I thought it would good to pick someone who would create all sorts of havoc as scum (hence drealmer). I didn't want to try and sort him. Looking back zeo fit this description as well, but not much experience in a game with zeo. I wasn't sure if it was better strategy to pick a player or two cards. What ultimately changed my mind was I did a search on the game and Seer. The results indicated picking two cards is almost always the better option. At the time, I didn't fully understand why, but I do now.

I thought it was likely we were in a lone-wolf scenario. I could not confirm whether that was true or not.

If trent is telling the truth, we have a lone wolf. I'm curious who Trent would have identified as the werewolf. I know zeo is scum so my question is, why is he pushing for Trent's lynch? If zeo is werewolf, then trent may be telling the truth and lynching the minion is a good outcome for zeo. If the card pick was indeed a slip then zeo is likely the minion and trent is lying about his role. So he is either Tanner or werewolf. Does wolf-Trent make that play?

I'm traveling tomorrow, I'll try to use some of that time to sort out which options I find the most believable. For me, i think determining whether trent is lying or telling the truth about his role is key. The other key is determining who is the second real villager. And the consequences of HSL's switch. Right now my guess for wolf is zeo or blotunga.

Was half asleep and then I figured it out. This is going to be quite the finish.

Agreed that the swap with blotunga makes most sense. One well known quantity, swapped with one pretty much unknown quantity, for maximum reveal possibility. To be fair, I could be the unknown quantity as well, which would be disappointing (villager swapped with (robber turned) villager), but I figure blotunga has the higher chance.

So, bler, how does it feel to be scum now? Have you figured out which type of scum you are? Based on your last post, I think you have a suspicion. That makes me hope I was picked for the switch after all, because then you can reveal that insight.
Post-merge:
Not, so far. Need to sit down and dedicate a solid chunk of time to rereading zeo, both for the lone-wolf narrative, and for the roles. I have hopes for this afternoon, with visiting family planning to be off to the beach. (In december?? Ayup...)

So.... bler might now be scum, depending on which villager he was swapped with.

blotunga seems to have gone AWOL, as has Hunter...

I'm not sure I buy trent's lone wolf claim / scenario.

At this very moment in time I believe the tanner isn't in play. No one is really jumping out as seeking to draw attention. If there is a tanner I think my best guess would be zeo but (no offence zeo) I don't really see him playing the role that subtly with my experience of his previous games...

If we assume trent is at least part of the wolf / minion triangle (but we don't know which part) then zeo would have to be the other and blotunga or trial the last... (though bler may take one of their places)

If lone wolf is true than we have a 1 / 3 chance of getting it right and the other 2 lose us the game...

*sigh*


At this very moment, who is everyone considering voting for?

For me I'm really starting to lean zeo. I think he's been wolfing it up all along and hoping we would think him the minion or tanner.
Second would be blotunga.

But Hyper and trent's reveals may change that dramatically if we get any kind of confession :)

Might vote for trent unless hyper reveals anymore, don't see myself voting zeo in any case he is not trying to lay low at all which is something I'd expect a wolf to do.

the way zeo came at everything out of the gate makes me think he's the minion
he knew his wolf was inexperienced and wouldn't know how to set up the angles (like saying he peeked a middle card as the fake seer) - he had to get out in front of his wolf and coach them as he coached everyone else
it all points to trent

I know I said it, but, yep, still is where I'm at,

until we know who HSL switched, trent is the vote, imo

we actually might want everyone to declare who they think is a wolf (especially trent and zeo) before HSL tells us the rest

It's damn hard to quote only parts of the text while on the phone, and I'm on the road again.
@gogtrial: only because I woke up 8 hours later than the rest of you guys, being in a different timezone makes my villager claim less believable.
@Hyp: I think zeo is less trustworthy atm, and if cris is lying about being a seer then the bluff was a good one since she guessed the lone mason, which is unlikely.
Since things have been swapped around, i might not be a villager anymore.
Edit:it could be very well that zeo is a wolf (i don't think tanner because he doesn't actively seeks to get lynched) and maybe trent a minion or tanner after the current developments. Which also would explain zeo's seer claim seeing seeing the wolf card since dedoporno said we shouldn't read to much into the PMs.

On the face of it, I actually found your claim extra believable due to its lateness. You made it when there were three villager claims already, as well as one seer claim about a villager in the middle. A wolf might've opted for a less contested space to claim.

And thanks for your other thoughts! More of that, please, when you have the time!

I'm pretty sure that's not quite right. I'll explain in just a bit if I can steal some time to write it up this afternoon, but I'll explain what I think HSL is doing and what it means.

But ultimately it should be good for town, whether or not it's good for me.

Had guests over this a.m. and my laptop decided to crap out, so I've got to fix the windows install after lunch before I do anything else.

do keep in mind it is crucial that you should be trying to figure out your actual wincon and be playing to it