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AI = alignment indicative

N = not or non
@Trial - Non-Alignment Indicative, meaning it could just as easily come from scum/town. blotunga is really the perfect example - is he scum not saying anything because he doesn't want to get trapped or new town with no info at all?

Pretty much a tossup, so yeah, unlike adalia I'd much rather have him at least speculate, right or wrong.
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bler144: @Trial - Non-Alignment Indicative, meaning it could just as easily come from scum/town. blotunga is really the perfect example - is he scum not saying anything because he doesn't want to get trapped or new town with no info at all?

Pretty much a tossup, so yeah, unlike adalia I'd much rather have him at least speculate, right or wrong.
Heh, I didn't say I wouldn't like blotunga to talk more, just that it doesn't always help in deciding whether he is town or scum.

He's probably my top pick until the whole Hyper / trent situation resolves in some way.
Yeah, fair enough. I was writing that post while trying to wrangle a 3 year old off to the bathtub so it wasn't fully thought out or explained. ;)

So it's not that blotunga has done anything amazingly scummy, just that he has to be in the POE. Could certainly be trial, but he's put in some effort without slipping.

Agree he's in the mix. For me, at present I'd probably flip a 4-sided coin between cristi/zeo/trent/blotunga probably weighted to the latter two.

Still think HSL should stagger his announcement - one at a time. He's closer to town-lock than anyone except you.
Back to intermittent attention - actually wrote pretty much all of that post about 30-40 minutes before I posted it, running off to give the kid a bath, look at picture books, etc.

So probably won't be particularly useful today. Evening maybe, but considering sneaking out to see Star Wars after several aborted attempts.
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bler144: Agree he's in the mix. For me, at present I'd probably flip a 4-sided coin between cristi/zeo/trent/blotunga probably weighted to the latter two.
I'm not sure what to make of cristi and zeo. I think zeo is the one lying, but I don't know what to make of him, I don't think he is lone wolf (or Tanner) but could well be minion or second wolf. But either way there's still a 50 / 50 chance he needs to be lynched or doesn't....

It's really taking me a while to get my head around the WIFOM of this game...
Some people are intentionally trying to get lynched to win, so we don't lynch those people.
But if getting lynched loses then you want the rest of us to think you want to get lynched so we don't lynch you...
And the opposite is also true, the people who do want to get lynched pretend they don't so we lynch them...
And repeat to infinity...
:/

Right now zeo appears to not want to be lynched.
trent looks like he might want to be lynched, blotunga possibly too though that's not quite as obvious.

ARGH!
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adaliabooks: Right now zeo appears to not want to be lynched.
trent looks like he might want to be lynched, blotunga possibly too though that's not quite as obvious.
Because if you do that, you'd lose.
Similarly if you lynched Cristi (at least, I suspect).
Look at it this way: If you assume either of us are lying, the likeliest thing we end up as after that are minion or tanner while the other one is the true seer. That's a pretty good reason to avoid both of us.

I say Trent's bluffing, desperate, and bluffing hard. No idea whether Blotunga is hanging back and trying to look innocent or what. As much as I hate to agree with Drealmer when he's spent pretty much the entire game riding on me, I'd have to say that those two are basically our voting pool.

I still think that Hyper only revealing one card or lying about the swap is only setting us up to get further lost in the WIFOM, but to each their own. Y'all just play differently than I do, I guess, and that's fine. So long as I can make crappy jokes the whole time.


Also, be advised that I won't be here most of the day. So if I stop ****posting for once in my life, it's not because I'm sitting back and waiting for more information before figuring out my next move, it's because I'm sitting back and eating pizza, waiting for more information about my next move...in this same game, which I will be playing, along with the Daybreak expansion, with a couple friends.
Still catching up, connecting dots, and analysing, but I'm going to oblige trentonlf.


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trentonlf: I am going to not say anymore until you let us know if you did swap any people or not.
[emphasis added]

Yes, I did. Now talk.



@adaliabboks - You said you're a lone Mason. Were you told so in your initial role PM, or did dedoporno give you this piece of info in a later PM? If the latter, how much time passed between the two PMs?


Any and all wolves are more than welcome to also answer the question.
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HypersomniacLive: Were you told so in your initial role PM, or did dedoporno give you this piece of info in a later PM? If the latter, how much time passed between the two PMs?
Even though I haven't prohibited PMs discussion I find this question to be in poor taste. I will remind everyone once again that the PMs structure and especially their timelines aren't supposed to follow any usable patterns. Even if some exist they are probably accidental and mean nothing. My initial plan changed after the decision to crunch the Night Phase and handle most of the stuff simultaneously so the result, even though correct, may or may not have produced "leads" that are actually meaningless.
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adaliabooks: Right now zeo appears to not want to be lynched.
trent looks like he might want to be lynched, blotunga possibly too though that's not quite as obvious.
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zeogold: Because if you do that, you'd lose.
Similarly if you lynched Cristi (at least, I suspect).
Look at it this way: If you assume either of us are lying, the likeliest thing we end up as after that are minion or tanner while the other one is the true seer. That's a pretty good reason to avoid both of us.
Yeah.. but you would say that :P
Particularly if you were a wolf.

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HypersomniacLive: @adaliabboks - You said you're a lone Mason. Were you told so in your initial role PM, or did dedoporno give you this piece of info in a later PM? If the latter, how much time passed between the two PMs?
I don't know whether to answer or not after dedo's post. But as he hasn't specifically said not to I will:
It was in the same message.
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zeogold: Because if you do that, you'd lose.
Similarly if you lynched Cristi (at least, I suspect).
Look at it this way: If you assume either of us are lying, the likeliest thing we end up as after that are minion or tanner while the other one is the true seer. That's a pretty good reason to avoid both of us.
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adaliabooks: Yeah.. but you would say that :P
Particularly if you were a wolf.
Or tanner wifoming wolfy.

Regardless of what he is, I'm going to still suggest the 1 reveal at a time strat. He's not wrong that more info also means more potential for WIFOM, but I'd rather have it and then potentially judge it wrong than not have it.

Or put another way, considering we still have 2+ days to talk things out, I think there's value in isolating someone, seeing what that produces, if anything, and then moving on. With so many of us being new, if put in iso I think there's more chance of making a mistake. But yes, we'll have to WIFOM if it's intentional or not, but the real question is does the first person change their story (and how) after the 2nd person in the pair is revealed.

Might be nothing, might not. Might be telling, might not. /shrug
I was on the road for most of the day. But it seems that people have made up their minds about me so it's hard to say anything in my defense that wasn't said.
Post-merge - not sure if I actually wrote this last night or not, but I submitted my action about 12 hours in, only got the result at the time the game opened.

Thinking about it, with the wolves you'd kinda have to assume they knew if they had a partner or not in the initial PM, since if not they'd need to select an action that dedo would have to resolve. The fact that the mason is reporting the same isn't really surprising, imo, but depending on where HSL is going with this I would assume the wolves knew if they were partner (and who) or solo in the initial PM, and would have time to strategize from that point on.
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blotunga: I was on the road for most of the day. But it seems that people have made up their minds about me so it's hard to say anything in my defense that wasn't said.
Are you a wolf, then, or tanner? Minion?

What did you think of my question to you about what Trial is if you are telling the truth about being villager? If town, you could, y'know, make an effort to crack that piece of the puzzle or at least put forth a theory/evidence, etc.

Whether or not people will believe you is a whole separate problem you shouldn't worry about yet. Make the case.
Post edited December 26, 2016 by bler144
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adaliabooks: Particularly if you were a wolf.
That's exactly what a MASON would accuse me of!
...
...am I doing it right?

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blotunga: it's hard to say anything in my defense that wasn't said.
You could sing about it. And maybe, just maybe, your soul-rendering solo will convince us not to vote you.
Or it could be horrible enough to make us want to vote you even harder.
Either way, it'd at least be entertaining to watch.
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blotunga: I was on the road for most of the day. But it seems that people have made up their minds about me so it's hard to say anything in my defense that wasn't said.
If I had made up my mind, I would be telling everyone about it and pushing people to get to voting already. Instead, I'm asking you questions, which you aren't answering. :( The only conclusion I can draw from that is that you're a lazy tanner.

I have a scenario I currently consider most likely, a ton of permutations on that scenario, and a couple of entirely different and scary scenarios which I haven't yet ruled out. In most of those scary scenarios, you could very well be town.