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ZFR: Claim: mason.
And FWIW, I confirm gogtrial to be the third mason.
I will refresh before posting.

Seems I was wrong about you as well. I haz all the dumb.

Vote: HypersomniacLive
Apropos of nothing, since I noticed this during my evidence gathering (nearly there):
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Bookwyrm627: I'm not sure how much to read into it. As an example: Mchack wouldn't lynch himself. Hunter was already on the wagon. Sage was MIA for an extended period. That only leaves 1 other scum, who would have to be on the other scum team AND who wasn't already on the wagon. This makes some assumptions for the sake of the point, but I think it is a decent illustration.
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mchack: uh, nope all of scum were on my wagon
*checks the wagon*
Damn, he was right...
Scene of the crime: D2. The leading wagon, with some minor momentum, is on adalia, with 3 votes by:
* flub ( #827; no explanation given, but voted on adalia very shortly after adalia's reaction to mchack's mason reveal, and returned to his vote from earlier ( #712) - flub, anything to add to why you re-voted at that point?)
* Leonard ( #891; just backed off from disbelieving mchack)
* mchack ( #894; just backed off from voting Leonard to go back to his earlier adalia vote from #714).

Dramatis Personae: If I'm right about being in a "D" scenario, then there's one freshly minted mutant, who knows that the other mutants are Hunter and adalia, but not which one of them recruited him. Hunter died, which this freshly minted mutant *knows* to have been through a cyborg NK, as he was of course successfully recruited. He doesn't know if his recruitment was via Hunter or adalia (Q: do we know for certain that this is so, or could he even have known that it was Hunter who recruited him? I don't recall if Lift made this clear anywhere?), but he basically believes that there's a 50% chance that adalia has a recruitment left, so is a more valuable mutant than he himself is.

Enter Bookwyrm, stage left, in #914 with the intent to name masons.

Now, his mason naming post was for me a big reason to town read Bookwyrm. He got so much heat for it, and there's just no way scum would invite that. So when I was assembling my pros and cons for flub/trent/HSL/bookwyrm earlier today, I put that as a big town plus for him. And then I idly looked at the D2 wagons to see which by-now-confirmed scum had voted for each of these four candidates. Flub and trent barely had a wagon to speak of (2 votes each; Krypsyn on flub's wagon, adalia on trent's). HSL and Bookwyrm had more substantial wagons, but from only Krypsyn rode along on each.

But, wait, I was looking at Krypsyn's unofficial vote counts, and wasn't there this invalid vote on bookwyrm's wagon? Who was that by...?

Exhibit A:
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adaliabooks: Vote Bookwyrm

While I can to a degree see where he is coming from, I don't think putting it out in the open helps today.

And in light of today's events I think Bookwyrm is scum, so I think he wants to alert his buddies as to who he thinks the masons are before he gets lynched, just in case they haven't figured it out.

As to why I think he is scum, I was pretty convinced he was mason practically since the game started. I thought his voting game with Krypsyn was distancing between two masons and his lack of rocking the boat was him trying to make sure he survived.

Now I'm thinking the reason he wanted to survive is because he is scum.
Adalia.
An original mutant.
Didn't vote Bookwyrm due to missing an unvote.

Which, yes, is something that happens to town, too (see: ZFR). But since I started observing mafia games here, I've seen it happening at least as often with scum-on-scum interactions, while those are definitely a minority of all votes placed. For me this was the smoking gun that made me re-evaluate all of the D2 interactions.

And adalia offers these prophetic words, "I think he wants to alert his buddies as to who he thinks the masons are before he gets lynched, just in case they haven't figured it out."

And I thought back to my shiny theory about Krypsyn protecting a fellow cyborg who'd still have a recruitment left. And applied it to Bookwyrm protecting adalia who still might have (and indeed had) a recruitment left. And it fit. Suddenly the heat he drew wasn't so townie, but just a way to remove that heat from adalia. (Which worked; mchack ( #918), Leonard ( #939) and flub ( #964) all unvoted adalia (though only flub and mchack moved over to Bookwyrm), and that was the end of the adalia wagon.)

And then I looked at the rest of Bookwyrm's activity on D2, and noticed a nice back-and-forth with adalia as the first three posts of the day ( #696-698, followed a short time later by:

Exhibit B:
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ZFR: I just found it curious that the behaviour of person X can be read diametrically differently by persons Y and Z. If we assume he was town, that would mean that one person was very sure he was town, enough to risk converting him, knowing that if he was wrong he would die. The other was very sure he was scum/mason (incidentally, was he NKing with the aim of killing rival scum or mason?) to go for the NK. Both of these reads were based on same behaviour by Hunter. Why?
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Bookwyrm627: Alternatively, one team wasn't certain enough to attempt a conversion, so they just murdered someone. Hunter was floating enough that his death wouldn't tell us much about who might have done it, which may be a reason if he was targeted for a kill.

Also, I forgot one possibility: 2c) Hunter may have been scum that failed a conversion AND was targeted for a NK. Duplication on the kill, no conversion, but the mutant scum have a confirmation on someone not being vanilla. In this case, the cyborgs wouldn't know whether the conversion was successful or not.

Actually, lets throw the mod some questions:
Lift, two questions for you:
1) If a vanilla townie is targeted by two conversions, will that be apparent from the flip?
2) Are all members of the relevant scum team told if a conversion is successful?
Notice that question "2)"? Given the uncertainty raised by Hunter's death, he needed to know if adalia knew that he was all wormy now.


A final reason I find it likely that Bookwyrm is remaining scum, is that not converting claimed vanilla town (that'd be flub and trent) fits perfectly with my mental model of how adalia operates (there'd be too much suspicion on them), and I certainly believe that Hunter would go along with him there.


So, how does this fit with how people read Bookwyrm? Am I chasing a shiny and wrong theory here and ignoring things I don't want to see, or could this actually be it?
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gogtrial34987: .....
I have been back and forth on bookwyrm and HSL and I am ok with lynching either of them. As I said I’ll follow the lead of you and ZFR with who y’all want to vote.
@gogtrial,

This would mean that of the original Hunter-adalia team Hunter, made the first conversion despite being safe. Or at the very least it means that: Bookwyrm believed that of the original Hunter-adalia team Hunter, made the first conversion despite being safe, to a degree that justified his protecting adalia at his own expense in case adalia had an additional convert.
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ZFR: @gogtrial,

This would mean that of the original Hunter-adalia team Hunter, made the first conversion despite being safe.
That is correct, but that is necessary anyway.
If the non-hunter mutant recruited on N1, he must've succeeded (since he didn't die), which puts us in scenario E, which isn't possible as adalia wouldn't have died last night, then.
So regardless of success or failure, we know for certain that Hunter was the recruiting mutant on N1. (Oh, or mutants didn't do anything at all on N1.)
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flubbucket: I'm Not Saying......at the moment.
...
It should be read as less suspicious. I never said non-suspicious.
flub, that seems to be two "INS" signals in the same post. Care to enlighten us what that means / who you'd be signalling / why you're highlighting things in such a way if not for signalling?
To speed things up, and to give Lift some counting to do:

vote Bookwyrm
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gogtrial34987: And adalia offers these prophetic words, "I think he wants to alert his buddies as to who he thinks the masons are before he gets lynched, just in case they haven't figured it out."

And I thought back to my shiny theory about Krypsyn protecting a fellow cyborg who'd still have a recruitment left. And applied it to Bookwyrm protecting adalia who still might have (and indeed had) a recruitment left. And it fit. Suddenly the heat he drew wasn't so townie, but just a way to remove that heat from adalia.
So my big plan to protect my teammate (who has been on the edge of being lynched since Day 1, and who might not even have a conversion) is to try and draw a lynch to myself? A lynch that is at least partially jump started by said teammate's (failed) vote on me?

Why would I gamble my life, which was mostly uninteresting to other players at that point, on whether his high player-interest life has a conversion? Adalia, being the one more likely to get lynched, would seem to me to have been the obvious choice to have done the conversion in case he goes over the edge, and so not worth a claim that I'm going to name the masons. If I wanted to save him, why not just push some other player over the edge for a mislynch?

Speaking of which, what would be my attachment to HSL, in that scenario? I would have been against his lynch even when I know he can't have been associated with me, and accepting his lynch would have been surer protection of Adalia (and me!) than me broadcasting I'm going to name some masons.
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flubbucket: I'm Not Saying......at the moment.
...
It should be read as less suspicious. I never said non-suspicious.
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gogtrial34987: flub, that seems to be two "INS" signals in the same post. Care to enlighten us what that means / who you'd be signalling / why you're highlighting things in such a way if not for signalling?
I will refresh before posting.


I thought ZFR was scum. Clearly I was wrong, as usual, so no signal. However I am impressed at your "two INS" signals. You give me too much credit. I'm not that clever........

I will keep my vote where it is unless there is compelling evidence to move it.
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Bookwyrm627: Speaking of which, what would be my attachment to HSL, in that scenario? I would have been against his lynch even when I know he can't have been associated with me, and accepting his lynch would have been surer protection of Adalia (and me!) than me broadcasting I'm going to name some masons.
Did you have an attachment to HSL at that point? Could you please point me to the relevant post?
HSL definitely didn't have a viable wagon until the very end of the day, so there was nothing to "accept" which your "naming masons" announcement would've been the alternative for.

If you're talking about your aversion of the HSL wagon on D1: You weren't scum yet at that point in my scenario.

Anyway, I'm just one out of 4-5 town players here, and having been confirmed as mason doesn't make me infallible with reading you all and interpreting what's going on. So, do some legwork and convince me that "HSL, or maybe Flub" is our man.

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gogtrial34987: flub, that seems to be two "INS" signals in the same post. Care to enlighten us what that means / who you'd be signalling / why you're highlighting things in such a way if not for signalling?
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flubbucket: I thought ZFR was scum. Clearly I was wrong, as usual, so no signal. However I am impressed at your "two INS" signals. You give me too much credit. I'm not that clever........
So you just bolded those starting letters for shits and giggles and absolutely no in-game reason?

Adalia and Krypsyn aren't in the game anymore. Being enigmatic to an audience which doesn't have the capability to interpret you, might backfire rather painfully...
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gogtrial34987: Did you have an attachment to HSL at that point? Could you please point me to the relevant post?
HSL definitely didn't have a viable wagon until the very end of the day, so there was nothing to "accept" which your "naming masons" announcement would've been the alternative for.

If you're talking about your aversion of the HSL wagon on D1: You weren't scum yet at that point in my scenario.
Post 940, in the conclusion section. Later posts of mine continue in that regard, pointing fingers at Leonard, ZFR, and Dedo.

Scum!me could have found an excuse to bow to Mchack's focus, considering how hellbent he was on lynching one of Adalia, HSL, or me. Since I'd know that HSL wasn't on my scum team, then lynching him would keep both Adalia and I unlynched and it would also either 1) kill scum from the other team (my team is already down a man, and possibly even out of conversions), or 2) Make Mchack look bad through the lynch of a townie, casting doubt on his reads of Adalia and me.

And if I finally came out as (even grudgingly) accepting of HSL's lynch, that would probably have been enough drive to get him lynched, considering how close he was on D1.
I see we got the last Mason claim. And no counterclaims; if we still have 2 scum left, I'd say they're not on the same team, or they might have attempted it.

I was leaning towards gogtrial34987 being one of the Masons, based on how I was reading the Masons collaboration after mchack claimed. In that reading, I was leaning towards trentonlf being the third one, but I was wrong about that, so not sure where I have him now.
A few things about ZFR were making me uneasy after dedoporno's flip, but I was wrong about that too, since he's a Mason, and Krypsyn was the Cyborg I was looking for in the ZFR/Krypsyn pair.

Regarding gogtrial34987's analysis (post #1218), I'm not sure I'm comfortable enough to dismiss the "cyborg null" cases, for the reason I've already said.

Also, knowing adaliabooks, I wouldn't put it past him to forgo their N1 action to sow confusion, but, in this case, later events would put us into a scenario where no scum would be left after N3, which is NA.


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ZFR: [...] Krypsyn was sure adalia was scum without recruiting him. [...]
Not sure I follow, why would he need to be sure adaliabooks was scum? At that point, adaliabooks hadn't admitted yet he was scum, hence we didn't know adaliabooks' alignment. I've not thought this through in full yet, but couldn't Krypsyn have made the move with the goal of getting adaliabooks lynched before himself? If adaliabooks had been lynched D3, even if he had flipped town, it'd still have been a good result for the Cyborgs who'd have gained one more Night before Krypsyn was lynched Today.

Or am I overlooking something?



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gogtrial34987: [...] (Q: do we know for certain that this is so, or could he even have known that it was Hunter who recruited him? I don't recall if Lift made this clear anywhere?) [...]
We don't, Lifthrasil left it vague. If Bookwyrm627 is scum and knew who recruited him, was there anything stopping him from asking anyway in the game thread?


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gogtrial34987: flub, that seems to be two "INS" signals in the same post. Care to enlighten us what that means / who you'd be signalling / why you're highlighting things in such a way if not for signalling?
That caught my eye too, and even after looking up what "INS" all stands for, I was still not sure what he may have been meaning/doing there.

I'm still not sure what flubbucket's doing. On the surface it seems that he's going to place a vote on everyone until lynch is achieved, which looks like a scummy thing to do, but I don't think that's what he's doing. He likes to play the "I haz all the dumb" card when he's anything but that, and with him so little on record, I'm not sure how to read his D4 posts.

Bookwyrm627 certainly is a player very good at fooling and WIFOM-ing us, so I have to go over gogtrial34987's case and do a reread on him, but not sure if I can do it tonight (I'm running a fever, again).
What about this team? Adalia + HSL

HSL recruits Hunter, Cyborgs kill Hunter: m2-1, c2-2
-Adalia and HSL are both on the chopping block anyway, so no preference in who converts.
-Cyborgs are not at risk, so they can afford to wait with their conversions until vanilla are more clear.

Dedo fails to recruit Adalia, Mutants kill Mchack: m2-1, C1-1
-Krypsyn knows the recruitment failed, and Mchack's flip confirms that Adalia must be scum.

Krypsyn accuses Adalia (failed recruit), Adalia fesses up. Krypsyn lynched. C0, m2-1
-The accusation was too pat for Krypsyn to be unsure about it.
-Krypsyn could easily have been mostly telling the truth, and he would have known that mutants are NOT down to 1 (he can't afford to ignore them, which we were doing).
-Adalia didn't even try to deflect; he still has an ace up his sleeve in the form of an unsuspected teammate while we hunt Krypsyn's conversion, and as a bonus he might survive to convert someone.

Adalia fails conversion on ZFR. m1-0
-With HSL already a mutant, and me broadcasting all over the thread about Flub/Trent/Gogtrial being masons, that leaves ZFR and me as recruitment choices. I could see him going either way when picking between me and ZFR for a recruitment. ZFR is the mason, so obviously Adalia didn't fail to recruit me.

-----

This explains Adalia being unwilling to lynch HSL on Day 1, and it avoids the trouble of the scum pair of me + Adalia both risking lynch instead of "grudgingly" accepting an HSL lynch (the two of us both avoided his lynch on Day 1).
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ZFR: [...] Krypsyn was sure adalia was scum without recruiting him. [...]
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HypersomniacLive: Not sure I follow, why would he need to be sure adaliabooks was scum?
Maybe he wasn't. But it was a risk to call out adalia as scum, without being sure. The other case meant his partner died while recruiting adalia, so he would have been sure.