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Bookwyrm627: Vote Gogtrial
I'm mason.
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Bookwyrm627: Vote Gogtrial
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gogtrial34987: I'm mason.
Unvote Gogtrial
Well, blergh, that was lousy timing with that vote. Real life had not quite yet let me go there. Now it should've though... *fingers crossed*

Yes, the second mason is going to claim as well (we were pretty much resolved on this anyway). But let's drag this out nice and slow to annoy Krypsyn some more :) and give any ambitious scum the chance to counterclaim.

As for my game state analysis (fingers crossed this formats okay, and that the notation is clean enough that you get my meaning)

Initial state: m2-2, c2-2 (That is: 2 mutants with 2 recruitments, 2 cyborgs with 2 recruitments)

I'll run through the possible permutations for night actions for each night, leaving out the permutations which wouldn't be possible given what's known. Please eye this critically in case I overlooked a scenario!

N1: hunter (mutant) dead.
[i]A) hunter (mutant) recruitment failed + cyborg NK on hunter :: m1-1, c2-2
  N2: mchack (mason) dead + dedo (cyborg) dead
  A1 or A2) dedo (cyborg) recruitment failed + mutant NK on mchack || cyborg NK on mchack + mutant NK on dedo :: m1-1, c1-1
    D3+N3: lynch krypsyn (cyborg) + adalia (mutant) dead
    -> town win :: thus not applicable (NA)[/i]

B) hunter (mutant) recruitment failed + dedo (cyborg) recruitment success :: m1-1, c3-1
  N2: mchack (mason) dead + dedo (cyborg) dead
  B1) cyborg NK on mchack + mutant NK on dedo :: m1-1, c2-1
    D3+N3: lynch krypsyn (cyborg) + adalia (mutant) dead
    B1a) mutant recruitment failed + cyborg null || cyborg NK on adalia :: m0-0, c1-1/c1-0 <- unlikely (why would cyborg do nothing?)
    B1b) mutant recruitment failed + cyborg recruitment success :: m0-0, c2-0
    B1c) mutant recruitment success + cyborg NK on adalia :: m1-0, c1-1/c1-0 <- unlikely


C) hunter (mutant) recruitment failed + non-dedo (cyborg) recruitment success :: m1-1, c3-1
  N2: mchack (mason) dead + dedo (cyborg) dead
  C1) dedo (cyborg) recruitment failed + mutant NK on mchack :: m1-1, c2-0
    D3+N3: lynch krypsyn (cyborg) + adalia (mutant) dead
    C1a) mutant recruitment failed + cyborg null || cyborg NK on adalia :: m0-0, c1-0 <- unlikely
    C1b) mutant recruitment success + cyborg NK on adalia :: m1-0, c1-0 <- unlikely
  C2) cyborg NK on mchack + mutant NK on dedo :: m1-1, c2-1/c2-0
    D3+N3: lynch krypsyn (cyborg) + adalia (mutant) dead
    C2a) mutant recruitment failed + cyborg null || cyborg NK on adalia :: m0-0, c1-1/c1-0 <- unlikely
    C2b) mutant recruitment failed + cyborg recruitment success :: m0-0, c2-0
    C2c) mutant recruitment success + cyborg NK on adalia :: m1-0, c1-1/c1-0 <- unlikely


D) hunter (mutant) recruitment success + cyborg NK on hunter :: m2-1, c2-2
  N2: mchack (mason) dead + dedo (cyborg) dead
  D1 or D2) dedo (cyborg) recruitment failed + mutant NK on mchack || cyborg NK on mchack + mutant NK on dedo :: m2-1, c1-1
    D3+N3: lynch krypsyn (cyborg) + adalia (mutant) dead
    D1a or D2a) mutant recruitment failed :: m1-0, c0-0

[i]E) non-hunter (mutant) recruitment success + cyborg NK on hunter :: m2-0, c2-2
  N2: mchack (mason) dead + dedo (cyborg) dead
  E1 or E2) dedo (cyborg) recruitment failed + mutant NK on mchack || cyborg NK on mchack + mutant NK on dedo :: m2-0, c1-1
    D3+N3: lynch krypsyn (cyborg) + adalia (mutant) dead
    -> NA; no way adalia could've died[/i]


So that gives me two likely scenarios: two cyborgs (B1b, C2b) or one mutant (D1a/D2a).
The one mutant scenario basically means Krypsyn was telling the full truth about cyborg actions, and adalia lied only about being by himself, as hunter's N1 recruitment would've succeeded.
The two cyborg scenario has several permutations where it's only one cyborg, possibly (but not necessarily) still with a recruitment, but I don't believe that such a cyborg wouldn't have used the nightkill to take out one of the likely masons, so I'm calling all of those "unlikely" above. (This probably merits discussion by people who've played as scum; do you agree with Bookwyrm's "I probably wouldn't have killed anyone, either"? If so, they might not be as unlikely as I think...)

To get to two cyborgs (or one cyborg with a recruitment) at this point, cyborgs would've had to NK mchack. Which means that mutants would've had to NK dedo, which means that Krypsyn was telling a bald-faced lie when he said that dedo died when converting adalia, and couldn't have had more than a suspicion on adalia, and adalia would've known this, and went along with it. I don't want to rule that out (because with two cyborgs, we're at MYLO), but I do consider it the less likely scenario compared to one mutant.
A single cyborg without a recruitment is also possible, if to me "unlikely" compared to a single mutant.
Absolutely worst case is C2c, which would give us a single mutant and a single cyborg which might still have a recruitment. But why would a cyborg ever NK adalia, when adalia was certain to go down by lynching tomorrow?


I had a shiny theory yesterday where I was pondering motives for Krypsyn if he lied all the way. The theory was that Krypsyn wanted to protect an under suspicion cyborg who still had a recruitment left over (presumably HSL due to his wagon, but it could be anyone), while Krypsyn was the recruit (by dedo) or an original cyborg who'd already used his recruitment (to recruit dedo). However, for that scenario to work out, we'd have to be in B1a/B1c or C2a/C2c, which means the bald faced lie about dedo, that adalia just went along with.
Krypsyn protecting another cyborg who no longer had a recruitment would of course also be possible, but why would he when they might both survive?

So yeah, I think it's just one mutant (D1a/D2a). Once us two masons are off the table, we'll have a 25% chance of picking him out from the remaining four players. If we miss, then tomorrow we'll have a 33% chance. Total 50% chance of town success just by random lynching. Since in this scenario that mutant was recruited on N1 (it can't have been adalia), we can compare behavioural differences between D1 and D2, think about who Hunter and adalia would've found a good recruit, and look at voting behaviour on D2/D3.
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Bookwyrm627: Hrm.

Boop it. Some days one just needs to take a chance.

Vote Gogtrial
So would you care to explain your thinking with this vote?
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Bookwyrm627: [...] I probably wouldn't have killed anyone, either. One mislynch on whomever and I could recruit for the win. [...]
Yeah, doing nothing sounds like the smart(er) play for a (well) hidden scum; they remain hidden, make Krypsyn's claim that he was the last Cyborg sound (more) believable, and go about their business on N4 in case of a mis-lynch (from their PoV).



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ZFR: I didn't miss it. I thought I'll do an analysis of all the possible scum combinations before I answer that, but looks like gogtrial is going to write it.

I don't see any possibility for the "or" in my statement to be inclusive (i.e. by D3 there were 2 mutants and 2 cyborgs). So it's an exclusive "or" (either... or...). Can you show a scenario where it's not the case?
My question was about the number and combo of scum we could be facing; adaliabooks and Krypsyn are confirmed scum, so I reasonably assume that there's some lying somewhere in everything they said.

So while there's no scenario where we had 2 Mutants and 2 Cyborgs at D3 start, depending on the synthesis of each team going into N3 and how things played out during it, we could be against 1 Mutant, or 1 Cyborg, or 1 Mutant and 1 Cyborg, or 2 Cyborgs.


I see gogtrial34987 claimed Mason; curious to see flubbucket's and Bookwyrm627's response/reaction.
I also see he made his analysis, but haven't gone over it yet.
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Bookwyrm627: Hrm.

Boop it. Some days one just needs to take a chance.

Vote Gogtrial
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gogtrial34987: So would you care to explain your thinking with this vote?
1) Lots of people just sitting around staring at each other.

2) Something of a "tag along with the mason" (I had Flub as one of the more likely to be mason), combined with "if there are two cyborgs, they can't quick hammer unless both of them are in ZFR/Trent/HSL".

3) Sometimes, I just get tired of spinning my wheels with no noticeable effect. At that point, it is time to kick something and see what happens. Maybe the ants will make an interesting pattern, or maybe I'll stub my toe on a brick.
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gogtrial34987: So that gives me two likely scenarios: two cyborgs (B1b, C2b) or one mutant (D1a/D2a).
Thanks for the analysis

If Kryspyn was telling the truth, he was indeed the last cyborg, and thus he threw the game while giving away adalia's identity in the process, then screw this. I'll continue playing normally, but Lift please modkill me before ending this; I don't want to consider this game a win for myself.

If Kryspyn was lying; there was one or more other cyborgs, and he thought that acting the way he did was in the best interest of his team, then fair enough.

If it's the latter we're in B1 or C2. Either Kryspyn lied about dedo recruiting adalia (and adalia went along) which means that Krypsyn was sure adalia was scum without recruiting him. Or Krypsyn lied to protect another cyborg who had no conversions left but Krypsyn did it nonetheless because he was (a)bored and/or (b) thought that outing himself and adalia increased his partner's chances of winning.
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Bookwyrm627: Vote Gogtrial
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gogtrial34987: I'm mason.
I will refresh before posting.

So I was wrong about you, fascinating.

Unvote: gogtrial34987
Wow, an entire 18 posts in a full day. Who is supposed to read all that?

*****************************************
Official no-vote count

No one is voting
Everyone is at L-4
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I think I have to shorten the Day to encourage some activity. I know ending the Day on a weekend is bad. But at the latest it will end on Monday evening. Perhaps even earlier (that would mean a nasty weekend-End) if nothing keeps happening.
So I have thoughts about each of the four non-masons, but I don't have a single "it must be him" conclusion, and I don't want to share these reads first, as it's really easy for scum to just agree with my reads and join me for a mislynch (and I generally appreciate the reading ability of all y'all more than my own).
Of course, you're probably all thinking similar things.

How do we get out of this rut? Do you all want to share your town reads to start with, rather than your scum reads?

Or are you still re-evaluating? Waiting for the second mason to reveal to crystallize that re-evaluation? (I've prodded him to go ahead; don't want to do it for him.)
At this point, I'm inclined toward an HSL lynch, or maybe Flub. Trent and ZFR follow them.

Vote HSL
Actually, I think I just realized there's an actual smoking gun. Which fits with today.
Working on assembling the evidence and seeing if things line up. Early results seem probably not conclusive, but still indicative.

However, I still have many real life interruptions, and the posts are spread out over a wide time range, so it's gonna take a while. I'm still interested in reads from everyone else, so please don't wait for me with revealing those.
Claim: mason.
And FWIW, I confirm gogtrial to be the third mason.
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gogtrial34987: Actually, I think I just realized there's an actual smoking gun. Which fits with today.
I hope life slows down for you so you can point out what it is. I have nothing but gut instinct I’m going on at the moment because nothing stands out to me.