It seems that you're using an outdated browser. Some things may not work as they should (or don't work at all).
We suggest you upgrade newer and better browser like: Chrome, Firefox, Internet Explorer or Opera

×
avatar
trentonlf: At this point the two remaining Masons need to claim
avatar
Bookwyrm627: I'm not sure I support this idea at this juncture.
Why?
It's possible there are two cyborgs (full analysis of possibilities coming tonight (European time) when I don't have to rush off to work). Do not put anyone at L-2, or if we're in that scenario, then they might coordinate a quickhammer for the win.

I find it more likely that we're dealing with a lone mutant.
^EBWOP: ...but this is not something we should rely on.

I think I support a mason reveal, but am interested in bookwyrm's argumentation for why not.

Oh, and flub, if you want to go and explain that vote, then by all means, be my guest...
avatar
Bookwyrm627: I'm not sure I support this idea at this juncture.
avatar
ZFR: Why?
The combined implications of Trent disclaiming mason and Flub voting Gogtrial. If there is a recruiter left, then those two factoids would really screw with their recruitment targeting.

It would also mean I should probably just give up ever bothering to try and predict the game state or read anyone ever again.

However, Gogtrial makes a very valid point about leaving someone at L-2.
*****************************************
Official Vote Count
(gee, that was difficult to count this time. There are just so many votes!)

gogtrial 1 - flubbucket 1195

not voting: everyone else
*****************************************
avatar
flubbucket: Well I think I've got a handle on who's who.

Vote: gogtrial34987
avatar
ZFR: Why?
I will refresh before posting.

Of the remaining players he is the one I'm most suspicious of.....one of two.
avatar
gogtrial34987: poke
Are you male or female? I seem to recall you saying female previously, but Flub is making me question my memory.

avatar
ZFR: Why?
avatar
flubbucket: I will refresh before posting.

Of the remaining players he is the one I'm most suspicious of.....one of two.
Who is the other?
avatar
Bookwyrm627: [...] -There are a max of 2 mutants and 2 cyborgs that could still be in the game, based on starting number of conversions. [...]
Could you run us through the possible events that lead to 2 Mutants?
I've run the numbers, and didn't come up with any scenario where we may be facing 2 Mutants.


avatar
Bookwyrm627: [...] Unnecessary question. That possibility was covered by the "or if he was NK'd" part of my statement.
So you say now, but the way you worded it wasn't clear (to me).



avatar
ZFR: Calling my reaction silly. Its because he didnt throw the game as I thought.
What about my other question? Did you miss it, or aren't you going to answer it?



avatar
flubbucket: [...] Of the remaining players he is the one I'm most suspicious of.....one of two.
[emphasis added]

Elaborate? Also the same regarding Bookwyrm627's question.
avatar
ZFR: Why?
avatar
Bookwyrm627: The combined implications of Trent disclaiming mason and Flub voting Gogtrial. If there is a recruiter left, then those two factoids would really screw with their recruitment targeting.
Do you consider it likely that there's a recruitment still in play?
Does the risk of that outweigh the risk posed by the larger pool of suspects to pick from for town, and the inability for the final mason to confirm themselves if scum NKs a mason tonight?

avatar
Lifthrasil: (gee, that was difficult to count this time. There are just so many votes!)
We heard Krypsyn likes votes, but Krypsyn turned out to be icky scum, so we're collectively refraining from casting them now.

avatar
flubbucket: Of the remaining players he is the one I'm most suspicious of.....one of two.
What causes that suspicion? And perhaps more usefully, what makes the other three players non-suspicious?

avatar
Bookwyrm627: Are you male or female? I seem to recall you saying female previously, but Flub is making me question my memory.
I don't recall I ever actually stated this, but "he" is correct.


I promised analysis, and that's coming, but it's going to be a couple of hours still, as I still have real life interruptions to deal with right now, and after that need to 'translate' from my shorthand notes to something legible and probably figure out formatting (as I don't think indenting will be preserved very well - let me test here).

testing, this can be ignored:
test long line which is very long and runs on like long lines tend to do when they aren't shortened to be short enough for normal purposes.
=> indented one
-> indented two
=> indented one long line which is very long and runs on like long lines tend to do when they aren't shortened to be short enough for normal purposes.
-> indented two long line which is very long and runs on like long lines tend to do when they aren't shortened to be short enough for normal purposes.
___ => indented one
________ -> indented two
___ => indented one long line which is very long and runs on like long lines tend to do when they aren't shortened to be short enough for normal purposes.
________ -> indented two long line which is very long and runs on like long lines tend to do when they aren't shortened to be short enough for normal purposes.
avatar
Bookwyrm627: [...] -There are a max of 2 mutants and 2 cyborgs that could still be in the game, based on starting number of conversions. [...]
avatar
HypersomniacLive: Could you run us through the possible events that lead to 2 Mutants?
I've run the numbers, and didn't come up with any scenario where we may be facing 2 Mutants.
This was a statement on the maximum number of scum that could possibly still be in the game when factoring initial number of conversions and the number of each kind of scum flip. Nothing else was factored for this particular hard cap on the possible number of scum. We obviously don't have 2 cyborgs and 2 mutants still in the game.

When factoring the deaths, I don't see how we can have more than one mutant currently present.

----------

Mutants
It is very highly unlikely that mutants have any recruitment shots left.
-Hunter accounts for one shot, whether he used it or it was used on him.
-On the night Adalia died, either he failed a recruitment, or a mutant succeeded at recruiting, or mutants passed up their action (since only a mutant died).

Adalia was going to be lynched anyway, so I see little reason to skip the kill if they weren't going to recruit, so I'm guessing they are now out of recruitment, if any mutants are still alive.


Cyborgs
It is possible that a surviving cyborg has one recruitment shot.
-Cyborg recruits on N1, mutant dies because of failed recruitment
-Cyborg makes a kill on N2
-Krypsyn, either the N1 recruiter OR the recruitee, is lynched D3
-Cyborg shoots Adalia.

Hm. Seems odd to shoot Adalia since he's pretty much guaranteed to be the next Day's lynch. They might hold their shot and recruitment back, though.
avatar
Bookwyrm627: The combined implications of Trent disclaiming mason and Flub voting Gogtrial. If there is a recruiter left, then those two factoids would really screw with their recruitment targeting.
avatar
gogtrial34987: Do you consider it likely that there's a recruitment still in play?
Does the risk of that outweigh the risk posed by the larger pool of suspects to pick from for town, and the inability for the final mason to confirm themselves if scum NKs a mason tonight?
Mmm. Hard to say whether a recruit shot is still in play. I will say that if I were scum with a recruitment shot last Night (unless I was in Adalia's specific position), then I would have saved my recruitment shot and tried to get through the Day. I probably wouldn't have killed anyone, either. One mislynch on whomever and I could recruit for the win.

I'd weigh the risk of a recruitment remaining at least as high as the chance of two cyborgs remaining, especially if the masons claim.
avatar
ZFR: Calling my reaction silly. Its because he didnt throw the game as I thought.
avatar
HypersomniacLive: What about my other question? Did you miss it, or aren't you going to answer it?
I didn't miss it. I thought I'll do an analysis of all the possible scum combinations before I answer that, but looks like gogtrial is going to write it.

I don't see any possibility for the "or" in my statement to be inclusive (i.e. by D3 there were 2 mutants and 2 cyborgs). So it's an exclusive "or" (either... or...). Can you show a scenario where it's not the case?
avatar
Bookwyrm627: ..............
Who is the other?
I will refresh before posting

I'm Not Saying......at the moment.

avatar
HypersomniacLive: .................

Elaborate? Also the same regarding Bookwyrm627's question.
To answer both.....


avatar
gogtrial34987: ...................
avatar
flubbucket: Of the remaining players he is the one I'm most suspicious of.....one of two.
avatar
gogtrial34987: What causes that suspicion? And perhaps more usefully, what makes the other three players non-suspicious?

...................
It should be read as less suspicious. I never said non-suspicious.
Hrm.

Boop it. Some days one just needs to take a chance.

Vote Gogtrial
My two cents, not even sure my thoughts are even worth that much though, are that ZFR and gogtrial are the two remaining Masons. I’d be surprised if they are not the Masons, and I’m basing this off of their reactions today to everything going on and what I’ve gotten from their play over the entire game so far. So I am willing to vote any of the other three players and will follow the lead of what the two of them decide to do.