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adaliabooks: Surely the scum with the most heat should risk the conversion? That way if they die their partner is still nicely hidden away with little suspicion on him.
Yes, I was going to mention that, but wasn't sure if it would be OK to put it in the open. But many people have touched upon this now.

This would exonerate mchack from being Hunter's partner. He was at L-1 waiting for the hammer at one stage in day 1, and surely the more expendable of the two. Not saying it means mchack is not scum, just saying he's not on Hunter's team. And same applies for you, adalia.

(The above of course assumes a failed conversion on Hunter's part).
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mchack: you don't?
so if you or hsl would have greeted us dead this morning flipping scum, then you don't think that would have hampered hsls or your aim to lynching me in the least? think again.
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Bookwyrm627: The question is "if they're so close to being lynched anyway (and thus losing their conversion shot), then why would they risk the player who isn't at risk of dying and losing their conversion shot?" Such behavior also puts the team at sudden risk of loss if the conversion backfires.

Mchack, they don't need you specifically dead to win, unless you're scum, so not being able to lynch you isn't a huge deal in the long run. NKs are available to scum for the unlynchable that need to be killed.

All this taken together means that if Adalia or HSL are scum, then they are very likely part of a 3-man cyborg team now.
they weren't closer than me in being lynched, so why waste a nk on me when you can lynch me (only need 6 votes now - oh but hunter is dead now who was one of the six yesterday... :D
I know that I don't need to die specifically for scum to win, but I'm sure it helps if my read was at least partly correct, so letting someone less suspected do the conversion makes perfect sense, to get both a convert and lynch me (or if failed) at least lynch me.
I don't know which team HSL or Adalia belong to, but maybe you wanna find out? help me lynch one of them and judge my list (and me) again after the flip.

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mchack: uh, nope all of scum were on my wagon (but lucky me there weren't 7 scum yesterday) hunter only left for half an hour to vote hsl but changed back as soon as you said, this might end in no-lynch. Also he was very quick to follow your lead to lynch sage just before nightfall.
much better illustration, I think.
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Bookwyrm627: Your illustration doesn't do anything to clarify my point, so it is a terrible illustration in that regard. :P

The idea that my scum buddy would so promptly follow me with voting is kind of amusing, though I guess the HSL split on voting would have been an okay piece of distancing? That assumes that I wanted to preserve HSL even though he isn't on my team, though, when I could have simply said "Sorry HSL, we need to lynch".

Why do you think all scum were on your wagon? What makes you think that ZFR, Sage, Flub, Leonard, and Trent were all town?
not talking who I think town and why. As for scum, I suspect when it's 4 against 8 you don't want to lynch scum D1 no matter which team. you want less muddy town around first. then let the masons claim (incidentally just what adalia suggested yesterday ie. #324) and then nk them off and look to achieve vote control.

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mchack: not conclusions, but speculations. As you (and zfr) have already laid out all possibilities that might have happened, I went to make my point about one of them in answer to adalias trying to lynch trent or flubs (again), obviosly in the thought that one scum team recruited correctly (why else search for converts?) and which implies the other didn't (unless they NKed hunter of course. wouldn't see the sense in that though. he wasn't exactly scumhunting) hence in that team that recruited unsuccessful (hunters) there would be only one scum left, which still has his conversion shot and does not know the player the other team converted. So leaving him uncovered for now, would have the bonus that he's a bomb left for hunters team if they try and recruit the same player (the safe choice as adalia put it yesterday)
But yes all speculation thinking further the same speculation from which adalia votes trent or flubs ( I don't see you asking him about it though.)
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Bookwyrm627: I...think I follow all that. If we don't go looking for the convert, then (assuming the convert is a cyborg) the remaining mutant might target the convert and therefore die.

Therefore, we should leave Trent and Flub alone under the assumption that one of them was likely converted, so the mutant might try to convert one, choose wrong, and die?

Did I get that right?
I think we should not treat anyone as obviously town today only because we did so yesterday. And watch everone carefully. there was 5 vanilla to choose from yesterday, one team might have gotten one right today. no reason to think we know which it was and lynch someone because of the possibility right away as long as we have much scummier players in the Originals left to lynch. When some of those that might have been converted act scummy we note and remember that and when we lynched the Originals and game isn't over we get to those converted (they can't convert themselves - so they pose much less immideate risk than the Original Scum do.)
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ZFR: Yes, I was going to mention that, but wasn't sure if it would be OK to put it in the open. But many people have touched upon this now.

This would exonerate mchack from being Hunter's partner. He was at L-1 waiting for the hammer at one stage in day 1, and surely the more expendable of the two. Not saying it means mchack is not scum, just saying he's not on Hunter's team. And same applies for you, adalia.

(The above of course assumes a failed conversion on Hunter's part).
Well I've been working on the assumption that mchack is a cyborg anyway (he may try to pass it off as merely a joke but his defensiveness over it still makes me think it was a genuine slip) so Hunter wouldn't have been his partner if that is the case.

But it would mean someone like Sage or Leonard may likely be (though I already have Leonard and mchack as a possible team) or even someone like you or Krypsyn who didn't get any particular heat or attention day 1.

To be honest though Hunter was probably the most under the radar of anyone, I don't think anyone other than mchack at the very end of yesterday, expressed any suspicion of him at all, which does make it very odd. It may well be that he (or his buddy) successfully converted and the other scum team got very lucky (presumably hoping to hit a mason? I completely agree with your assessment that scum will not be trying to NK the quiet townies unless they believe them masons).
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HypersomniacLive: @Krypsyn, flubbucket should have 0 votes in your D1 vote count.
Yep. I screwed it up again. I seem to always miss the vote number, yet get all the underlining correct.

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mchack: Which if true means lynching the most suspected scum from last day is even more rewarding...
So... you then? I am reading that as 'most suspect as scum', is my re-interpretation correct?

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mchack: ... hunter only left for half an hour to vote hsl but changed back ...
Hunter65536's voting patterns were indeed interesting at the end of Day 1. I have been staring at them a bit, without any sort of epiphany. The trouble is that my analysis goes different directions whether I assume he was an original scum or whether I assume he is a recruit. I hate cult games; I believe I have mentioned this.

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mchack: Mchack, they don't need you specifically dead to win, unless you're scum, so not being able to lynch you isn't a huge deal in the long run. NKs are available to scum for the unlynchable that need to be killed.
I find it interesting that most of mchack's arguments are about himself living or dying. Perhaps it is natural for someone who got to L-1? I am not sure. I'll leave it at that.

----------------------------------------------------------

I don't think adaliabooks is scum, so I won't vote for him. Trentonlf and flubbucket are a WIFOMy mess, for various reasons. Mchack... his arguments seem to go in circles and often seem to make unexplained logic leaps and assumptions. I am not sure it is indicative of alignment, but it comes off as a bit scummy to me (did Day 1 as well).

I think I'll go for the low hanging fruit, for ... reasons.

Vote: flubbucket
EBWOP
My last quote in my previous post should be attributed to Bookwyrm627, not mchack.

--------------------------------------

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Krypsyn: Trust in Masons.
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Leonard03: And what if no lynch happens?
I was not anticipating no-lynch. I find no-lynch so utterly idiotic, in a cosmic sense, that I just didn't see it coming. Perhaps I should have.

Regardless, my intention with "trust in Masons" was that players should just vote, and not get bogged down in discussion that might give up information. Masons, with Day-chat and 3 votes, could better keep lynch on vanilla town or scum, without having to discuss opening roles and such. Even a random non-Mason lynch would have a 44% chance of hitting scum; better random chance than in just about every other Mafia game I have been in.

(I won't go into it, but this should also help to explain my voting strategy early on.)
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Krypsyn: I don't think adaliabooks is scum, so I won't vote for him. Trentonlf and flubbucket are a WIFOMy mess, for various reasons. Mchack... his arguments seem to go in circles and often seem to make unexplained logic leaps and assumptions. I am not sure it is indicative of alignment, but it comes off as a bit scummy to me (did Day 1 as well).

I think I'll go for the low hanging fruit, for ... reasons.

Vote: flubbucket
well, I might not have gone to logic class, as you have, but I'm still town. And I think my arguments were better than adalias yesterday. I've always wondered why you seem to follow adalias arguments so much, but still thought your tactic "less talky more lynchy to not out masons" was maybe town.

Today is a different day though, please do explain your vote on flubbucket. Sure he may have been converted or not. it was clear to scum he would be under suspicion from now on, so not at all a safe choice to go for. I'd say it's not very likely (but still possible) he might have been been converted (let's say they chose him out of a pool of 4-5 players they deemed town vanilla yesterday - 20-25%?) And because of this chance you want him lynched (giving scum time to do another 2 conversion shots) and then lynch trent tomorrow? (giving scum to nk the townies they like least) and then you only then start looking for the original scum?
I think the chance of Adalia or HSL or Bookwyrm flipping scum is much higher than 20-25%. Are they all off the table for you? or just adalia?
Or go with me if you must, but if you are town, you do not want to do that. If in fact you are the one converted yesterday, then it's probably the safest route to fulfil your new win condition but otherwise, you are very much on the wrong track if you think me scum.
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ZFR: I just found it curious that the behaviour of person X can be read diametrically differently by persons Y and Z. If we assume he was town, that would mean that one person was very sure he was town, enough to risk converting him, knowing that if he was wrong he would die. The other was very sure he was scum/mason (incidentally, was he NKing with the aim of killing rival scum or mason?) to go for the NK. Both of these reads were based on same behaviour by Hunter. Why?

I'm pretty sure 2(a) is what happened; you, adalia and trent all said he wasn't really on your radars. And to be honest I agree with you; he didn't catch my attention one way or another. So he wasn't really threat enough for someone to NK him.
No, it looks to me like both scum teams went for the conversions; one succeeded and one failed. This means Hunter's partner is left alone now, and with the knowledge of who one scum/mason is. Would he be desperate enough to try conversion again, or wait quietly? Could depend on how threatened he is today.

I actually have more insights regarding this, but I can't discuss it without touching on the topic of masons, so if you want me to be quiet I will.
Small correction - not "one person", each team would discuss among them what action to take.

It could well be as you say, however, I'd rather be a tad more careful with that "very sure" lens, more so in this setup and after only one Night. At least this early into D2.


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ZFR: OK, a preliminary re-read, I think for the time being I'll go with

vote flub

It's likely he got recruited and a small chance he was scum to begin with. [...]
Do you think he was the only one on the table for conversation, given the way that D1 went and ended? And I'm not talking about the No-Lynch (only).



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Bookwyrm627: [...] Vote Mchack
Is that because you (still?) think he's scum? Yes, I saw you unvoted him already, just want to make sure I follow you.


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Bookwyrm627: [...] That was pretty much the absolute worst possible time for such conversation, and Trent Don't-Talk-About-Roles-On-Day-1 onlf decides it is a good time to claim.

And yeah, I'm moving my vote because that is still ridiculous.

Unvote Mchack
Vote Trent
Your reasoning isn't clear to me - are you voting him because of what he did yesterday (as town? as scum?), or because he believed his claim and think that he's likely scum now?


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Bookwyrm627: Part of that was that the mason talk was coming in the literal final hours of the Day, right before night fall when scum can start picking them off (or more easily identifying non-mason townies) before we can do anything with/about the information. [...]
There's something I was thinking about Yesterday, and tried to steer town into considering it too without being obvious about it, but don't think it's a good idea to say anything more on it. At least not yet.


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Bookwyrm627: [...] 2) Are all members of the relevant scum team told if a conversion is successful?
Heh, what an interesting implication this may make for, depending on the answer.



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adaliabooks: [...] But consideration of the information already available today suggests flub is actually playing (and for town, though he may well have been converted by mchack's team and is pushing their party line) and trent is not his usual self. [...]
[emphasis added]

Define trentonlf's usual self in the context of the setup we have.



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Leonard03: [...] Unless they were as indecisive as us and ran out of time, lol. [...]
How funny. More so since N1 didn't last a full 48hrs.
OK, I'm here now. Reading to see what you talked about.
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HypersomniacLive: It could well be as you say, however, I'd rather be a tad more careful with that "very sure" lens.
Oh, believe me, I agree. I find the 2-conversions theory much more probable but I'm keeping an open mind to all possibilities.


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ZFR: OK, a preliminary re-read, I think for the time being I'll go with

vote flub

It's likely he got recruited and a small chance he was scum to begin with. [...]
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HypersomniacLive: Do you think he was the only one on the table for conversation, given the way that D1 went and ended? And I'm not talking about the No-Lynch (only).
No, there was another one on the table, trent. And I'm really sorry to break the "don't discuss masons" rule, but for crying out loud everyone must have noticed this fact so I'm not adding anything new here: he could have been mason.

Or he could have been a townie and got converted. But given the mess that this is, the fact that even if converted, it's better to go for the original scum, I think of the two, flub is a better lynch target.
(There is more to that, but I won't discuss it further at least for the time being.)

That is not saying that I won't change my vote later to someone else I find who I find is scum. But for the time being I'll go for the low hanging fruit too.
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HypersomniacLive: [emphasis added]

Define trentonlf's usual self in the context of the setup we have.
Well, what we saw from him for most of yesterday. Today he seems to be playing a little more fast and loose, a bit less serious. Which I don't particularly ever remember him doing so, it could well be the sign of someone who has been converted and doesn't know how to behave.
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Krypsyn: [...] I find it interesting that most of mchack's arguments are about himself living or dying. [...] Mchack... his arguments seem to go in circles and often seem to make unexplained logic leaps and assumptions. I am not sure it is indicative of alignment, but it comes off as a bit scummy to me (did Day 1 as well). [...]
They do, don't they?



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mchack: [...] 1 scum dead [...]
And you think he was scum from the beginning?


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mchack: [...] people willing to lynch a townie yesterday (flubs + trent) [...] only reason I can think of is you fearing he may flip scum and trying hard to not let this happen. [...]
[emphasis added]

I thought we agreed Yesterday that you're smarter than you want us to think, and pay attention more than you let on. Makes me wonder...


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mchack: [...] or sage (who wyrm also tried for in the end) [...]
And Hunter65536 promptly followed him. What do you make of that?


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mchack: or anyone else may be converted. [...]
Which could well have been you, if you were town D1 as you claimed, couldn't it? So, why should anyone take your word that you're town Today, and follow your suggestion?

Also, since anyone else could have been converted, how are you going to tell if someone's flip Today is the same as the one they'd have flipped Yesterday?


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mchack: [...] (hunters, which was most likely unsuccessful in recruiting) [...]
[emphasis added]

I was going to ask you what makes you so sure that he died trying to convert someone, but see that Bookwyrm627 already did.


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mchack: [...] lynching the most suspected scum from last day is even more rewarding as if we lynch correctly we not only kill scum but also the last remaining conversion shot of that team dies. [...]
[emphasis added]

And you're so über-confident about that because...?


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mchack: [...] uh, nope all of scum were on my wagon [...]
Are you saying that every single scum put all their eggs in one basket? If so, why would they?


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mchack: [...] You didn't talk to hunter as if you thought him scum. I at least offered him a place on my list (your spot in fact)
And that makes you automatically town how exactly? Let's assume that it normally would (it wouldn't), does having two scum teams in play change anything?


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mchack: [...] I explained in my last post. Adalia or HSL flipping scum this morning would not at all help in lynching me. that's why I assume they didn't do the conversion shots themselves. [...]
Again, do you factor in the fact we don't have a single scum team?



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Leonard03: [...] Also, just as a reference (and blatantly stolen from Krypsyn's Unofficial vote counts, so if something's missing, blame him). On Day 1 Hunter voted for: flubbucket, Bookwyrm (when Bookwyrm asked for the votes), trentonlf, adaliabooks (RVS), mchack, and HypersomniacLive. [...]
Not sure I follow, a reference to what exactly?



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adaliabooks: Well, what we saw from him for most of yesterday. Today he seems to be playing a little more fast and loose, a bit less serious. Which I don't particularly ever remember him doing so, it could well be the sign of someone who has been converted and doesn't know how to behave.
More likely aiming for lots of WIFOM as to whether he was or wasn't converted, I'd say, especially after his promise, and the way it affected the game state Yesterday. I don't think that "not knowing how to behave" if he was converted is all that applicable to trentonlf.
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mchack: ~ with most likely only 2 conversion shots left in game and most likely 4 vanilla left in game ~
How come that is the most likely scenario?

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mchack: There was an option/possibility to lynch scum yesterday with HSL and all of you (this also goes to bookwyrm and dedo) are people willing to lynch a townie yesterday (flubs + trent) So how is it you didn't go for HSL? only reason I can think of is you fearing he may flip scum and trying hard to not let this happen.
Did you even follow what the idea behind lynching flub was?! How come you keep going at something else? (more "keep"!)

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adaliabooks: Doubts as to what? His scuminess I assume as you were one of those on his wagon.
He was scummy yesterday, but that doesn't always mean he is scum. In this case I meant his actual alignment - I find it a bit hard to believe why he wouldn't be finished off. Maybe the hammer scum didn't want to rush things and the deadline came faster than they hoped while they were keeping up appearances or they were simply not online to do it. No sure way of telling (maybe if going back to take a look at time stamps, no idea yet).

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mchack: Why was HSL off the table for you yesterday but now you complain about no-lynch?
Because I wanted to lynch you and not HSL. If it wasn't clear yesterday I wasn't going on a random lynch but voting the player who I found the scummiest. This is what you're asking for, no?

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Bookwyrm627: I'm not sure how much to read into it. As an example: Mchack wouldn't lynch himself. Hunter was already on the wagon. Sage was MIA for an extended period. That only leaves 1 other scum, who would have to be on the other scum team AND who wasn't already on the wagon. This makes some assumptions for the sake of the point, but I think it is a decent illustration.
I'm a bit tired and I'm not sure I follow this, I have to process it a bit but I actually neglected the fact about Sage not being there at all.

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Bookwyrm627: Similar holds true for HSL's lynch, Flub's lynch, and Adalia's lynch. All were pretty close, though not all were L-1.
OK, but being that close to the deadline is kind of a free pass for hammering for scum for the sake of having a lynch, no? For the others one could argue there was still time and a "rushed" hammer might have attracted too much attention.

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mchack: Which if true means lynching the most suspected scum from last day is even more rewarding as if we lynch correctly we not only kill scum but also the last remaining conversion shot of that team dies.
I'd be down with keep going at what I was doing if not for what I already shared about second-guessing.

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mchack: this is the one part where bookwyrm made a lot of town points (and some krypsyn points, too) with me when he threatened everyone to not talk masons.
Scum can't do that? Really? Is it enforced in some way or are they just nice like that?

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Bookwyrm627: ~ the idea of one scum team doing nothing on N1 is ridiculous enough that I categorically regret it. ~
[emphasis by me] Is that supposed to be "reject" or do you regret doing nothing on N1?

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Krypsyn: I find no-lynch so utterly idiotic, in a cosmic sense, that I just didn't see it coming. Perhaps I should have.
No idiots here, so no reason for such expectation.
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HypersomniacLive: More likely aiming for lots of WIFOM as to whether he was or wasn't converted, I'd say, especially after his promise, and the way it affected the game state Yesterday. I don't think that "not knowing how to behave" if he was converted is all that applicable to trentonlf.
Which is fine, but far more likely to come from scum then town (sure, he may wish to avoid a conversion by pretending he already has been, but I'm not sure I'd count that as a pro town play here).

Considering yesterday, I think it is. He to all intents and purposes cleared himself as town yesterday and declared all of the main wagons bar yours to be town. If he suddenly tried to vote either me or mchack without a very good new reason it would look suspect.

But unfortunately I don't think it's really worth pursuing too much right now... either him or flub may be scum and the only way we will know is to lynch them (which we probably can't really afford any more).

Unvote Leonard03
Vote mchack

Sorry, I just can't not vote him. As Krypsyn pointed out all of his arguments revolve around him, as if he is the only important point in the game. You'd think if he was so important and scum were so desperate to remove him they would have NK'd or converted him...
And despite his stalling, mud slinging and attempts to save his own skin at the end of the day causing us to No Lynch, meaning we now have two players we can no longer trust and no more info then we did yesterday, he can't possibly see why anyone could think he is scum..
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adaliabooks: Which is fine, but far more likely to come from scum then town (sure, he may wish to avoid a conversion by pretending he already has been, but I'm not sure I'd count that as a pro town play here).
He's not avoiding conversion now, though. He's avoiding lynch so to speak. I wouldn't say that approach is equally as good in that situation.
@flub, do you still think you're supposed to be lynched?