I’ve been re-reading through the posts since the start of day 2. Some of my impressions:
If Robbeasy’s claim is fake, is it possible he is a Janitor? Robb both killed TW and covered up his flip. Am I reading this role wrong?
Having said that, I noticed something that gives Robb’s claim of PGO more credibility in my estimation:
I’m not certain how much time passed, but there are only 18 posts between Hijack’s revelation that he knew something (post #1320) and Robbeasy’s claim as PGO (#1338). If Robbeasy is faking the claim he included a lot of detail (a flavor appropriate name, number of shots, flavor in the claim) that flows well together, while being under pressure to fake a claim (in what I assume is a relatively short amount of time). If you see merit in this, it does not necessarily help confirm that the PGO is for town. The wiki indicates a mob PGO is unlikely, but anything is possible. Having limited shots helps balance the power. Thinking on my feet is a struggle for me, perhaps I'm giving Robb too much credit.
Robbeasy leans slightly towards town for me.
In fact we'll never know, because I'm gonna be lynched today or tomorrow I would guess, and it would be suicide for anyone visiting me.
You know? I tend to believe your claim, but this strikes me as BS. I believe flub clearly stated we can ask him questions about our roles, so what exactly stops you from PMing him right now?
I agree. Robb should inquire with flubb about the parts of his role he is uncertain.
I’m not sure who else to lynch besides Robbeasy without more information or agreement otherwise by the deadline.
I continue to think CSPVG's looks scummy but to my count, at least 5 others are against this. I do not have additional concrete information about CSPVG, my reasoning is based on the arguments already presented. I have one speculation that has not been presented to my knowledge: when yogs first claimed, he mentioned the best case scenario would be to Follow the Cop
. The wiki states that if a doctor is known to exist than “the optimal strategy for the Mafia is to counterclaim Cop and hope that they can get the real Cop lynched OR confuse the Doctor into protecting the false Cop while killing the real Cop at Night”. We did not know if a doctor existed. But if scum believed a doctor existed, this was the optimal strategy for them to take. CSPVG’s claim was not a 100% counter-claim, but it introduced the same confusion and doubt (if not more) that this move is intended to create.
I’d be willing to vote CSPVG if there was more consensus. My confidence level in this first game has not exceeded my threshold for risk yet.
There is definitely a chance either or both of them are scum. But neither of them had any real pressure to make a claim or gained anything for scum by doing so. If CSPVG isn't a cop he either needs to keep feeding us accurate reads on townies to maintain the charade (or be lynched for being naive) or get lynched as soon as he gets one wrong. The only problem there is that we may or may not get flips so its hard to know. But the important point is, he didn't know that when he claimed.
I didn’t follow this. All CSPVG claims is whether or not someone is town, not the role. If CSPVG is scum and one mafia group remains, claiming someone is town is a no brainer, they know every townie (but not specific roles.) If more than one anti-town faction remains, who would argue with CSPVG if he claimed them as town (even if he was wrong)?
This is my understanding as well, but I guess Jmich is referring to a potential double voter.
That was not what I was talking about. Theory was that if hammer was from faction A, we get a flip, if hammer was from faction B, we don't. Now, with 11 votes, does the faction of the 10th or the 11th vote caster count for the flip? And if we do have a double voter, is the hammer or the last voter the one who determines the flip?
The idea of flips based on multiple factions is interesting. I hope it's not that complicated.
Does a double vote make sense in this case? Unless the double vote is from CSPVG, wouldn’t the vote have been sealed once 9 players voted, prior to CSPVG’s vote? Does a double voter get to choose when to use it? If CSPVG has the ability and can choose, it would not make sense to use it in this case either. This leaves CSPVG with a passive double vote. @flub - Without a forth coming lynch from us, I assume this day last past Christmas?
I’m not certain how much internet access and time I’ll have the next several days.
flubbucket: @flub One more question, out of curiosity, your list appears to randomize the numbers from 2 to 19 (instead of 1 to 18). Is there a benefit to skipping the number 1?
It is a standard to randomly assign roles. Anything else is tantamount to cheating the gaming experience. Here, for what it's worth, is the actual Random.org "roles" stat for giggles.