You still haven't answered the question. Where did I ever state you said it was impossible for us to be scum buddies?

Edit for the posts post:

http://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_forum_mafia_27_gameshow_showdown_the_game/post611 (crème de la crème)

Holy cow people. This was not the right time to travel. I apologize for not getting back sooner. I was dead tired when I arrived and have spent today trying to adjust back to 'normal' (whatever that may be) and time with relatives. I have the rest of the evening free so I'll use it to catch up. This may take a while, so I'll break it into multiple posts. Will break somewhere in there for dinner and my own sanity.

I didn't say that you did.

@HijacK
I will go through your post #1485 over the weekend - it's pretty late here, and I'm quite tired.


I'd like to share a couple of things regarding cristigale's claim and her night-actions.

In that post she said: I assume that she didn't want to invest one of her shots on a player she thought would be lynched the next day. But I'm not sure where this "Yogs had been drawing votes, I thought he might be lynched the next day" comes from. This is the complete list of votes that yogsloth received all game long (strike-though denotes unvoting):

trentonlf (post #13) (Apr 11/ D1)
Leonard03 (post #172) (Apr 13/ D1)
Robbeasy (post #180) (Apr 13/ D1)
R̶o̶b̶b̶e̶a̶s̶y̶ (post #208) (Apr 14/ D1)
Robbeasy (post #269) (Apr 15/ D1)
t̶r̶e̶n̶t̶o̶n̶l̶f̶ (post #287) (Apr 16/ D1)
L̶e̶o̶n̶a̶r̶d̶0̶3̶ (post #356) (Apr 19/ D1)
trentonlf (post #383) (Apr 20/ D1)
A_Future_Pilot (post #396) (Apr 20/D1)
Leonard03 (post #466) (Apr 25/D2)
adaliabooks (post #566) (Apr 30/D2)
cristigale (post #649) (May 4/D2)
c̶r̶i̶s̶t̶i̶g̶a̶l̶e̶ (post #691) (May 6/D2)

He received exactly zero votes during D3. I would not call this "drawing votes, so he might be lynched the next day, especially if we take out the players that were no longer in the game by the end of D3:

Leonard03 (post #172) (Apr 13/ D1)
L̶e̶o̶n̶a̶r̶d̶0̶3̶ (post #356) (Apr 19/ D1)
Leonard03 (post #466) (Apr 25/D2)
adaliabooks (post #566) (Apr 30/D2)
cristigale (post #649) (May 4/D2)
c̶r̶i̶s̶t̶i̶g̶a̶l̶e̶ (post #691) (May 6/D2)

yogsloth may have said repeatedly that he makes a fine lynch candidate, but he was never really close to getting lynched at any point in the game - the highest score he made is two votes.


Next, she said: I questioned her about how the Role Cop would prevent the NK, and she replied in post : <div class="quot">Role Cop would not prevent a NK. It was one possible explanation of why JMich would visit someone at night. </div> I did not (and still don't) find this explanation satisfying, so [url=https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_forum_mafia_27_gameshow_showdown_the_game/post1409]I questioned it, and she then replied in her #1420: So either she didn't consider this case, in which case how did her preface cover it, or her preface "With no NK" had taken it into account, so why didn't she include it in her claim post?

I don't think her arguments regarding the night-actions she claimed add up. And I don't really need to repeat that what she reported on JMich was already known, and what she reported on yogsloth can't be refuted by anyone.

What do others think? Am I reading too much into this?

I don't think you're reading too much into it. As a matter of fact, I'm still baffled as to why she mentioned the role cop when talking about the reason behind a night kill.

There is a distinct difference between when you talk about someone moving during the night and trying to come up with possibilities for no night kill.

This is indeed questionable, but I don't find it as suspicious as the people I have listed in my scum list.

You’re right. I used too strong a word, but I stand behind what I said. Because of the scum tells (early role discussion, pushing for role claims, vote manipulation, detailed breakdown of who/how to lynch) I’ve been suspicious of yogs, adailia, and Bookwyrm. Yogs to one degree or another throughout the game, adalia and Bookwyrm more recently. The alliance suggestion is just the latest example of these type of tells. The fact that it would potentially involve all three of you convinced me that someone in this group is scum. I cannot say it with 100% certainty, I could be wrong. But I am more convinced now than ever.

See response above to yogs, the same holds true. Would you reference the post(s) where Bookwyrm shows “why this is categorically not the case?”

You may have a point here. I think Yogsloth was in the most danger of being lynched shortly before I predicted his lynch on Day 4, after which we finally went to No Lynch. Cristigale couldn't have known Day 4 events would play out as they did when making her JMich/Yog tracking decision. Come to think of it, maybe something interesting will turn up if we search for those that "suddenly" started finding Yogsloth suspicious late Day 3 or early Day 4.

I think you're somewhat off base here. When considering only JMich's action, if JMich visited you and you didn't die, then the only roles left to use on you would be doctor, role cop, or role blocker. Vig and NK would kill you, she had tracker, commuter can't target other players, and JOAT was dead. She might not have considered a combination of actions for figuring out her result. Though that in itself could be viewed suspiciously.

It’s good to know that you find adalia’s suggestion suspicious, but this surprised me a bit. I see adalia’s suggestion in the same type of category as your vote manipulation from Day 3 and the lynch analysis from Day 4. They all seem like scum tells. Do you see a difference between what adalia suggested and your actions on Day 3 and 4?


I’d be most surprised by Hijack. After early Day One, I have found his play to be town. When he first claimed Commuter, it raised my eyebrow because it was probably the last role I would have expected him to bid. But I found his explanation for choosing Commuter consistent with my impression of him. Choosing Commuter could be a scum play. However, I tend to believe him. I had a hard time following the recent back and forth between adalia and him on the first read through and there were other posts from the past 12 or so hours. If my opinion changes after that, I’ll re-visit this.

JMich is still neutral to me because I’m not convinced he is town or scum. Of all the roles, I’d hate to lynch the Doctor if he is town.

I see the similarities between Adalia's suggestion and my Yog-lynch analysis from Day 4. I see a difference between my Day 3 vote manipulation and the other two.

Day 3 vote manipulation: I'm seeing the No Lynch deadline rapidly approaching, and votes were scattered to hell and back. Hijack was absent and his vote was stuck in a useless position for lynching anything. JMich and HSL seemed to be not voting, Yog was in a useless position (but present), and Sage was ready to suicide (depriving us of wagon information if town, or making a ploy to avoid dying if scum). There was very little conversation going on, from what I recall. I was ready to lynch either Sage or Vitek, preference Sage because I knew Vitek was vengeful, and I saw a way to move toward lynching a candidate that I wanted to lynch. So I took action to avoid a No Lynch and instead lynch someone that I thought scummy enough to be worth lynching. After Yog and Sage moved to Vitek, I moved back so that Vitek was not the only viable wagon: the remaining people now had two choices for lynching someone instead of only Vitek. I also made clear I was happy with either one, and ultimately HSL elected to join Vitek's wagon to avoid No Lynch. If people didn't like either candidate, then they needed to actually put in some legwork to present why someone else should be lynched instead.

Now, if you think I had a sudden change of heart into wanting to lynch either of them, please speak up about what makes you think so; I'm perfectly willing to talk about that if anyone is interested. The problem people seem to have is that I managed to get the last votes needed to secure a lynch at all, instead of letting town waffle into a No Lynch, and that it turned out poorly. I can't help but suspect I wouldn't be getting so much suspicion if either one of them had flipped scum. To see what I was trying to avoid on Day 3, look at how we just kind of drifted into No Lynch on Day 4.

Day 4: I can see why my Yog-analysis looks similar to Adalia's alliance proposal. When I saw the votes mostly scattered (again) and who was where, I was pretty sure what was going to happen: we'd get down to the day before No Lynch or the day of No Lynch, and then Yog would be lynched in a scramble to avoid No Lynch because no one else would garner enough votes. I saw that no one had any real interest in either of my top two candidates, so I looked around at who I might be willing to lynch that was actually lynchable. Adalia was 3rd in my list, and Yog was right behind him in slot 4, but I had a feeling that if I pushed for Adalia and missed, there'd be no time to reverse course to anyone else and we'd hit No Lynch because of a hung jury. I decided Lynch Yog > No Lynch, and the risk of No Lynch from pushing for Adalia was unacceptably high, so I outlined why I was voting for Yog. I also outlined what I saw as his options and his chances, just in case he could pull something off and maybe I'd get a candidate that I found scummier. I made the forecast public information so anyone could step in to try and change it. As it turns out, I'm the one that changed it by dividing votes towards me. The discussion that came about because of my comment ultimately showed me that No Lynch was a palatable idea for that day, so I accepted a No Lynch. It also convinced me to be wary of settling for a likely lynch candidate, regardless of my feelings about No Lynch.

Adalia's proposal: This proposal makes me crazy suspicious. I don't have proof of his alignment either way, so I'm looking at whether the idea itself has merit, and how best to use it in favor of town. I agree with Hijack that Adalia, if scum, has his scum buddy in this alliance. I think either both scum are in the group Adalia suggested, or neither one is, and I've already mentioned how we don't have the days left to lynch everyone not in the group.

Thing is, if groups of people don't work together, then scum win. I can't beat them alone (none of the townies can), and most people in this game don't seem willing to contribute proactively. Ultimately, I have a feeling that I'm going to be stuck going along with Adalia's plan because I don't see how to get anyone else to work with me. JMich is stuck on Yog, Yog used to be stuck on JMich, I know for a fact that Hijack has been trying to lynch a townie up until Adalia's proposal, and I can't make either you or HSL contribute more than you choose to. I currently have hopes for HSL being proactive, but that is going to take a while to pan out (if it does at all, I don't know yet). So it appears to me that I'm stuck working with Adalia and keeping a wary eye out for traps if I want to avoid any more No Lynch. I'm not going to blindly vote however he votes.

If a proposed idea seems suspicious to you, that's fine. Look at them with a hard eye, look for any possible traps, and try your damndest to punch a hole in the logic. I've been trying to invite people to refute my ideas, and I think the main taker on that has actually been Hijack. I just wish he'd actually address what I'm saying, instead of accusing misrepresentations or presenting red herrings.

I found the idea of Hijack bidding for commuter to be odd, but I'm not going to discount it out of hand. We currently have nothing verifying his claim, but nothing contradicts it so I'm tentatively accepting the role claim as true.

He has made some good points over the course of the game, but when I look back over his posting history, I'm distinctly less than impressed with his overall contributions, especially lately. He has boasted about having a 100% rate of hitting scum when he is on a wagon that goes to lynch. That ignores that every single other vote he cast (except for me and Adalia) are proven to have been on a townie (except maybe RVS, which I didn't record or examine). I'm not sure about Adalia, so except for Flub and Adalia, every vote I've seen out of Hijack has been on a confirmed townie. His oh-so-valuable contributions and early vote (2nd place) for Flub came after 3 other players had already been giving Flub the stink-eye, and I see Lift as leading the way on that lynch, not Hijack. His 100% record also ignores that he was absent for the end-of-Day 3 debacle (and he ended Day 3 sitting on Leonard, a confirmed townie) and that no one lynched a townie on Day 4. Hey, do I get credit for not helping kill a townie on Day 1? Do I take blame for Vitek choosing a town player to venge kill? My lynch record is nearly as good as Hijack's; I have one more town kill on it, but then I wasn't the one missing during a critical period for one of the lynches.

You've pretty much outlined my view on JMich. I'm planning to accept that he is town (for now) and see what scum does over night, then I'll take another look at him.

Cristigale, I'm not sure you are aware how close you are to being lynched. No threat intended, just me guessing at the future again.

I think I'm going to take tomorrow off from the game. I'll probably keep an eye out and answer questions, but little more than that for a day or two.

-----

I'm for bed. Good night.

Unofficial Day 5 vote count:

cristigale: 1 vote - adaliabooks

yogsloth: 1 vote - JMich

adaliabooks: 1 vote - Hijack

Hijack: 1 vote - Bookwyrm627

Not voting: crisigale, HypersomniacLive, yogsloth

With seven (7) alive, it takes four (4) votes to reach a majority decision.

No lynch occurs next week Thursday, about 6 days from now.

You're missing one crucial point: The game is dynamic and not static. If X is a suspect during this day but later developments make me change my mind and said X candidate is still alive then once X candidate is lynched due to majority vote it is not primarily on me. Yes, I voted for a few people who are now confirmed townies, but my votes never lead to their lynch. This is what you're missing.
I'll repeat so people can understand. The game is dynamic. Just because today I see someone as townie it doesn't mean later in the game they will stay like that if developments show them to look otherwise.

Not only that but if you think me missing a little over 2 days before the deadline of a lynch somehow changes anything when I had my vote on my favorite candidate at the time and he wasn't the one even remotely close to lynch then you are wrong. I don't lynch for the sake of lynching. If you think I would have switched my vote to Vitek then that's you.

(emphasis added)

Why do you think I’ve ignored it? Did I not address your accusations in this post where I specified why I thought your suspicions were faulty. The arguments you made against me could be made against you and in some instances other players as well.

I did not directly address this in that post:
(emphasis added)

I think I was clear on why I initially found you suspicious , it was mainly the push to role claim in conjunction with your calculation that a role only had a 1/6 (16.7%) chance of being NK without a role claim. I mentioned other things, but they had not tipped the scales until that point. Should I ignore it because someone else brought it to my attention? Wouldn’t practically everyone be suspect for the same reason at various times throughout the game?

The only thing I’ve seen you add to that since then is that my reports as Tracker could be fabricated. Yes, they could. Other than beat JMich to the role claim Today, I’m not sure what else I could do. Given the way everything played out, the information I shared would only be original if I happened to track the NK or Bookwyrm on N4. Assuming everyone is truthful about their role, I add nothing “original” if I track anyone else. I did not have the opportunity that day to post before JMich, so that is what it is. He’s the only player I could have claimed beforehand as we followed Bookwyrm’s plan. I wasn’t going to risk revealing the information about JMich and my unused track to scum on Day 3.

Am I missing something else that you expected a response concerning your accusations?


I read through the back and forth between you and Hijack. Didn’t gain much from it, mostly bickering. And I will admit at times I sort of zoned out while trying to follow it. The one thing that stuck out about you was this:
(emphasis added)

I’ve read this multiple times. Your use of the words “town” and “their” does sound like you are referring to another party (yourself not included). It’s not that big of deal in the grand scheme of things, but it adds to the pile.


You’ve posted a lot about yog’s scummy behavior throughout the game. When did you decide that he should now be one of your allies?

Thanks :)
The trick seems to be to not really care and be as scummy as hell. Going full town is so last year :)

Sorry for dropping off the map everyone. Been working at a music festival all today and yesterday.

In this post you respond to my idea saying that you think it's a bad one and that some of us (me, Bookwyrm and yogs) might be scum. You don't vote for me, you don't go crazy and accuse me of lying. You just take it in your stride and move on (admittedly you also state you didn't have much time, but even so if you were going to react more strongly you probably could have) I class this as basically ignoring it (which I find a much better reaction then HijacK's, though I still think you are most likely scum)

I didn't really expect any response from you, you can try and convince me otherwise or you can ignore me and my idea completely, either response is completely valid.

I've covered the "Town" thing with HijacK, I pretty much use the term interchangeably all the time (whether town or scum I would point out) so count as scummy if you like but I really think it's clutching at straws.

My problem with yogs (and Bookwyrm I think) is that we are all trying to push the game in our own way, and have done for most of the game. I'd thought our problem at the start of this game was that town had no leader, actually I think it was that it had three (or more, I'm not sure how leaderlike any of the dead players were without a reread) and that we were all pulling in different directions and (for me anyway) eyeing the others up as scum.
Fact is, and I know this is mostly WIFOM, but scum would never dare be as scummy as yogs and Bookwyrm have been (I know, I've been there). They wouldn't bother to push the game and draw attention to themselves, because it's far too big a risk for scum. I don't even believe HijacK is scum, just that he is a possibility (to be honest, I'm mainly willing to lynch him to get Bookwyrm onboard with lynching who I think is really scum, you and JMich) but that being said the pairing of him and JMich does have a number of things going for it, hence why he's in the possible scum pile.

So, in case I didn't make it clear enough first time round, here's my plan.

Today, we lynch cristi.
1) She flips scum - Yay, games in the bag. One townie will get NK, therefore confirming one more person and reducing the pool of possible scum candidates and it just remains to choose a target for the next lynch (preferably HijacK or JMich). Say we then hit town tomorrow, another townie dies in the NK and we're down to 2 to 1. I would hope at that point it should be pretty obvious who is scum.

2) She flips town - Whoops, with the NK that's another two townies down, but if I'm correct then the NK will have to be from one of me, Bookwyrm, HSL or yogs thereby confirming that player. If JMich or HijacK is the NK we know I was way off and we can look at the whole situation again, I probably get lynched for pushing the idea and we lose. Otherwise we continue with the plan and lynch JMich or HijacK, hopefully hitting scum, and then it's the same as the first scenario.

Basically, the NK is actually in our favour now. Killing Leonard was a massive mistake, as he was a bit of an unknown for everyone, and removing him from the equation really clarifies the situation.
Who ever dies now from the NK provides us a bunch of information about whether their reads and ideas were a load of scum rubbish or things they genuinely believed. This of course doesn't make any of them true, but it allows us to re-evaluate the dead player and their thoughts without the cloud of doubt over whether it's all a trap.

And here's a random (maybe interesting) fact, I added a little snippet to my search script to count the number of posts in the results, and here are the number of posts made by all the surviving players (according to my script anyway):
adaliabooks - 147
yogsloth - 208
Bookwyrm - 186
HSL - 108
HijacK - 155
cristigale - 84
JMich - 127

cristi is by far the lurkiest player, with Hyper coming a little way behind and JMich behind that. Difference being there is that JMich's posts are often short whereas Hyper's are usually quite long. Yogs and Bookwyrm are leading the pack by a long margin.

My vote sticks with cristi, in case anyone was wondering.