For most of Day 2, I wasn't paying that much attention to the game, since I did have a shitty time irl. So even if Lift was seen as fully town by everyone, I didn't have him as a fully confirmed town. So I went with a quick decision and protected Robb/Vitek.

As for my post, I think you are referring to the end of post 732 and post 742. I don't recall mentioning anything about Lift's townieness, just that he wasn't a lurker.


And will you then post what you promised, or you didn't promise to post anything?

Correct, I will post a thought at that time, although it isn't very much.

JMich has claimed Doctor and cristi tracker. That's all the players accounted for, and all the roles but role blocker, so I think it's time to share the results of your investigations. I kind of doubt you'll catch any one out as it seems pretty stupid to lie about roles when there is a role cop about, but you never know.

Beat me by 1. Damn.

So... conveniently you confirm JMich's story of defending Hyper on Night 3.
Or you could be covering up yogs making the NK last night.
Or you could be telling the truth.

Short of you flat out lying about your role (and let's face it, as me and Hyper have both claimed to bid for Tracker we know someone must have got it) and Bookwyrm catching you there's no way to know without lynching people if anyone's actual actions are legitimate. So we are (ironically, as yogs has stated all along) completely at a loss as far as power roles go. No useful results what so ever, so we have only our wits to go on.
Having said that, and with all night actions (bar whatever Bookwyrm tells us) on the table, I have a question for JMich. You now have all the night action info you are likely to get, would you care to put forward some theories now?

I'd like to hear what you can come up with as well, JMich. Here's the last of the data people are likely to put forward.

My target - My result:
N1 -> JMich - Doctor
N2 -> Robb/Vitek - Vanilla Vengeful
N3 -> Adalia - Vanilla
N4 -> Cristigale - Tracker

Reasons:
N1 - I don't really have any leads, so I selected someone that I view as hard to read. Maybe the information would be useful later. Targeted JMich, went "Oh SNAP!" when he came back doctor. I've been avoiding questioning him most of the game, so as not to draw attention. Do you know how annoying it is to know something, but be totally unable to let on about it without blowing both your cover and their cover? The doctor investigation is also why I'd have voted for Yogs over JMich yesterday.

N2 - Investigating Robb/Vitek, since he was one of my people of suspicion. Glad to have found the Vanilla Vengeful, wondering where Vigilante was, and wondering how long my train of finding roles I'm seeking would last. This is the reason I wanted Sage over Vitek on Day 3. Vitek had to die (or clear himself) eventually regardless, but I've already mentioned my concern about a scum vengeful finding a town power role without us knowing it was found.

N3 - Suspicious of Adalia, and also looking for someone that wasn't a likely night kill (it would be a pain if tracker happened to track me to a NK). Also looking for someone that isn't likely to die quickly, so as to make my investigations "last longer".

N4 - Considered checking out one of the claimed players, but decided to keep looking amongst the unclaimed for Vig, and if I was really lucky maybe I'd find someone else with commuter (thereby identifying the entire scum team). I picked one of the players I was most suspicious of, cristigale. After what she said today about waiting on revealing my investigative results, I wondered if she saw me visit her, but I guess not. It isn't like people couldn't guess why I would want to be the bridge between vanilla and roles.

Anyway. I'll take another look at things later. Dinner time!

This is not the promised bit. This is just for organizational purposes:

Bid number / name / role:

2. Robbeasy / Vitek- Vengeful
4. JMich (claimed doctor)
5. cristigale - (claimed tracker)
11. HypersomniacLive - (claimed vanilla, bid tracker)
12. HijacK - (claimed commuter)
(unk) Leonard03 - Vigilante
18. Sage103082 - Vanilla (bid vigilante)
1. yogsloth - (claimed vanilla, bid vigilante)
6. Bookwyrm627 - (claimed role cop)
6. adaliabooks - (claimed vanilla, bid tracker)

Unknown:
. A_Future_Pilot - JOAT
. trentonlf - Vanilla
. flubbucket – Goon
. Lifthrasil - Vanilla

Conclusions (assuming veracity of claims):
Leonard's bid can be identified as 3, 7-11, or 13-17
One of the four unknowns bid 1
Role-blocker was not bid
No obvious conflicts in information are present

Damn! Missed one! Doesn't make much difference, but I overlooked AFP. Sorry!

Scratch that above....

Bid number / name / role:

2. Robbeasy / Vitek- Vengeful
4. JMich (claimed doctor)
5. cristigale - (claimed tracker)
7. A_Future_Pilot - JOAT
11. HypersomniacLive - (claimed vanilla, bid tracker)
12. HijacK - (claimed commuter)
(unk) Leonard03 - Vigilante
18. Sage103082 - Vanilla (bid vigilante)
1. yogsloth - (claimed vanilla, bid vigilante)
6. Bookwyrm627 - (claimed role cop)
6. adaliabooks - (claimed vanilla, bid tracker)

Unknown:
. trentonlf - Vanilla
. flubbucket – Goon
. Lifthrasil - Vanilla

Conclusions (assuming veracity of claims):
Leonard's bid can be identified as 3, 8-11, or 13-17
At least one of the unknowns bid 1
Role-blocker was not bid
No obvious conflicts in information are present

So, where are your ideas, though they interestingly reduced to a single thought in the meantime?

I'm away for one day and role claiming explodes, at least from where I left the game off. Alright. Catching up now. Will think things through in the morning though.

Actually, I'll try to give some thoughts before going to bed. Uhm, role claiming and night action sharing hasn't brought much info. It confirmed the stories of some players, unless some of them are scum and in cahoots in which case bad for town, and it established that one of the roles isn't in the game, unless someone is lying.
Still, kinda funny if no one bid for role blocker. It remains to be seen if that is actually true.

Moral of the story: This is still mostly a game of intuition. Not my coup of tea. Too focused on luck, but I guess this is when you need to be most alert in order to maybe, just maybe spot something off.

Not sure where to go from here. It's pretty much either resume where I left yesterday, or proceed to take yet another look at someone else from my list.

Maybe I'm too tired, but the night actions don't tell me much right now, granted it's almost 4 am. I need to revisit them. Nothing seems wrong with them at first glance. It will be really interesting to see how today plays out.

One thing that I forgot to mention at the beginning of the day is that since no lynch was established the previous day, I was more comfortable with a no lynch than with lynching someone I wasn't sure about. As far as I'm concerned I think we extended our chances of winning. This may be an unpopular opinion, but I think a safe play was required.

Off to bed now.

I'll be back as soon as I can, but I'm going to be AFK pretty much all day.

I would like to hear JMich's analysis of the night actions, then I'll add my own.

So, if we assume every claim and action performed to be true (I somewhat doubt this, but anyway) then Bookwyrm has confirmed:

Me, JMich and cristi.

cristi confirmed JMich too and confirmed yogs didn't perform the NK last night.

And one of Hyper or HijacK must be town.

Now if we look at it in another way, Bookwyrm could be lying to cover up for either me, JMich or cristi (although, to be honest, I'm not sure there is much point to this as no one else can confirm or deny his claims anyway, particularly if cristi has used all her shots).
cristi could be covering up for JMich or yogs.
JMich could be covering up for Hyper.
HijacK only really confirms or denies himself.

So while the whole thing does seem to lend some credence to my idea of a JMich / cristi scum team it's not exactly ground breaking stuff.

I'm pretty irritated with all the broken site features at the moment, so not in the state of mind to do any game-related work, but I wanted to quickly post in relation to a couple of things.

May I ask how him being the Role Cop would have prevented the NK?



I'd actually prefer that you went first. After all, you said you would share some ideas six days ago. Did you change your mind about that? And if yes, why?



Do you think that everything in one's claim is either a lie or the truth, if one's not truthful about their claim?

I would imagine a bit of both. Unless Bookwyrm and cristi are the scum (the only two roles capable of catching anyone else out) then scum have to at least be careful what they claim in case someone could counter it.
I'm pretty much ready to believe everyone's claims, as there is nothing so far to suggest any one has lied about their role.

In fact, I would say the only ones capable of doing so are me, you and yogs as we could be the role blocker. But for me to be lying would also mean Bookwyrm is lying and that's a fairly bad result for scum (if you lynched me and I flipped scum and not vanilla you would know Bookwyrm is also scum), so that reduces somewhat the chances of me lying.

Now whether their actions are true is another matter. JMich could easily be lying about who he protected, particularly if crisiti is his buddy. cristi is even more capable of lying about what she's done as other than yogs coming forward and saying he's not vanilla and did perform an action or JMich saying he lied about protecting you there's no way to verify the truth of her claims at all. (and since she claimed after yogs and JMich it would be easy for her to just claim to have followed them and got the results that were expected)

Bookwyrm is in a similar spot as he put forward his results after everyone else and hasn't shown up anything out of the ordinary, so he could just be saying what we would expect him to say.

But unfortunately that's all just conjecture. In light of my suspicions I find JMich and cristi's claims confirming each other somewhat convenient but as I've already said I don't think it's enough to make people switch someone from town or neutral to scum.

While I do have said analysis typed (and saved), I will respect HSL's wishes and wait for you to go first. Unless of course said ideas were (once more) sarcasm.