OK, finally weekend. I'm catching up from where I left of and go from there. I want to reread things with all this new information in mind.

this. seems contrary to something ZFR later responded to me....
without looking back, i don't remember you townreading Joe. also, i hadn't seen your poll before, ty.
query: was bookwyrm talking in-game, and if so, was he scum at the time?
Are you still of the same mindset, and if not, why not?
explain please. why and what led you to this opinion and do you still hold it?
Trent, you were. we had to choose between you and Lift. Joe was essentially a JOAT-thingie and Carradice was the town JOAT. Joppo was the last remaining scum. I think it was the HP game?
EDIT: yeah, what ZFR said.
i see dedo as one of Carradice's main supporters? if he flipped scum, this would give dedo scum points from my POV. please explain your reasoning?
i agree lift on d1 was floating, but yogs was also.
paragraph 1 agree.
P2, the SH game. NAI for this game. Agree with the rest of this paragraph, as it is true for everyone.
have you figured it out yet?
have you done this ISO and if so, what are your results?
agree with P1.
Nice analysis on Yogs, has anything changed? Joe said that he wasn't his usual charming scum self but a all-business town yogs without time to delude.

if Yogs is scum, what is Joe?
if my "favorite pet theory"™ is true, is ZFR the main bad guy dominating the convos? or is Carradice?
Paragraph 1 true. agree. ditto.
potentially flawed logic. i have expected to be the target several times and somehow for w/e reason they decided on someone else.
Pooka has liked the concept of RM games before.
i'm not sure i agree with your conclusion here. i want more logics for this reasoning.
would V C D & C be too many roles for town? this is a 13 player game, so there might be 4 scum (as I said before) and extry PR to balance things.
I think that the game where RW was the 1-use BG there was also a 1-use RB? i don't remember and cant be bothered to check atm. it's not important, unless you think dedo is lying on purpose. Do you? Is that what you were saying by this? Do you think he is scum?
i do like this logic the 2nd time i read it, about cop being useless if town.
however, your flip from early d2 "Carradice is town" to this is ... sudden? idk.
your final sentence here is questionable, but idk yet.

OTOH, i really like 782, and think Dedo raises excellent points here; feeling far more towny about him bc of this. ZFR looks worse in comparison.

@zfr would scum let a cop live and RB him another night in order to sow more discord among town? Why or why not?


bumppls

my thinking is gradually seeing merit in "remove distraction in case it is fakeclaim", but i don't think this is wise today. lets see if the rb or whoever is perm or not. OTOH, cop is an easy fake-result claim, too.

again, i really like 786 and think dedo raises some good points.

at this point i am seeing a lot of dedo zfr, little flocke (understandable unless scum), little yogs (IRL?) and i played hooky for a day.
however, i really don't like zfrs tunneling.
how do you know it is 10v3? this was never said anywhere. do you know this because you are scum? :O
why would 4 scum have to be 2x2? 9 v 4 would allow for more PR in- balance
how would you class 3rd party survivors in this scenario?

final paragraph at trent is appreciated.


I believe the proper slang (modified for use here) is "post numbers or it didn't happen"?

based in part on 794's questioning and reasoning
current scum reads: yogs+trent / zfr
not gonna vote dedo.
don't wanna vote carradice
unsure: everyone else

not sure how compulsive visitor is any better than miller. with regards to balancing, it seems an anti-town role.

No. Post game.
As a general strategy I very much agree. Make a decision and carry it out. Annoys me to when Days go on without end with "maybe this"s and "maybe that"s.

Yes, post 818
https://www.gog.com/forum/general/gog_mafia_67_mamlakat_al_shams/post818


1-shot RBs are fairly common. dedo wasn't asking about those but about RBs who can't target the same person twice in a row. I've never seent hem.


I've never seen a 9vs4 setup. 9vs4 means Town has to lynch 4 Mafia while making no more than 2 mislynches. I don't see it happening. 2+2 (or 3+1(SK)) are possible because the 2 scum factions can target each other making it easier on Town.

1. Thank you. I see. What do you think the likelihood is that Carradice is telling the truth? What is the likelihood that he is lying, and what is the margin for error? Percents please.

2. Thank you, I will read it when I get into the 800s.

3. Good call, I wondered if you would notice.

4. Thank you. I see and appreciate the info.
Again, how would you class or group neutral survivors in a 13-player game? Which side of the ledger, if either, would they fall on. Could you see your way to give town more PR if there were neutral survivors?

Since compulsive visitor is an anti-town role at worst, and useless at best, why do you see it as tipping the PR balance in favor of town if there is a cop? Wouldn't it tend to balance things, similar to how a miller balances things?

Because you didn't answer me, I'll say it again.
Given this, @zfr you still want to imprison our claimed-Cop?


Edit: I just jumped ahead and read your post. Why would town hammer with (as Joe put it) "5 minutes to go!" Why would scum?

++++++++++++++++

I'll ask everyone what I asked Lift:
+++
When IRL permits I will go back and read page 17-18

I don't like quantifying but gun to my head I'd say 75% lie, 25% truth.
(Meaning if I was a gambling man, I'd bet on Carradice being a liar if the payout was 1.33:1 or better)

How do you even put a margin of error like this? It's not a statistical analysis with a sample size.

Scum are only those who can win if Town loses (Mafia, SK, gemstone hamster bastard sibling lovers). Neutrals can win with or without Town (Lyncher, Survivor, Jester...). They may hamper Town to a smaller or bigger degree. Example, Jester is a big liability. Survivor less so, but can still disadvantage Town e.g. in a L/MYLO + Survivor situation, a survivor is interested in lynching Town and finishing the game than lynching Mafia.

No, Survivors should not be compensated with Town PRs. Not with the ones we've seen. Doc/Tracker/Cop/Commuter are all anti-Scum PRs. They have absolutely zero effect on Survivor, perhaps with the exception of Cop being able to detect one.



Yes. This was my line of thought before scene flipped, which is why I said I'm of the opinion that Carradice should be Town locked for the moment. Now I simply think Carradice is a liar.

His later actions don't help his case. Look at his abc alternatives. b and c are clearly not true. Why mention all these scenarios. It feels like analysis for the sake of analysis. Just to show that one is busy.


In a normal game, scum might hammer to ensure a Town kill.

In this case however, there is a death by any majority, so SPF was dead anyway. In this case why should scum get on a wagon of what they know is a Town lynch, when they can see this lynch happening while they keep their hands clean? Why should they put their name there for wagon analysis. ergo, WIFOM aside, this earned Joe Town points in my eyes.

Do keep in mind thought that Joe later said he wasn't sure of the vote count when he hammered, so there is a chance he was scum who wanted to ensure no tie would spoil the Town lynch.

I really like 812 (?) Lift's long post.

814 seems very defensive of another player, beyond normal. If Yogs is scum , I suspect ZFR is also.
(I think I have said this previously)
When i subbed in, i read the rules first. Pooka has a big bold "these are da special rules. Read them or weep" comment at the top.

Joe says yogs is very laid back vs scum!yogs. Could it be that a veteran player, having been made aware of his scummy playstyle, with daychat open, and with little lime IRL, is spending his precious little time playing catchup up with two chats** and thus doesn't have time to be his usual charming scum self? Yes.

** (I've found it hard enough keeping up with and analyzing one, but then scum don't have the same need to analyze that town do.)

ZFR's defensiveness of Yogs is very interesting, and would prove illuminating, if only we knew the alignment of one player. Sadly, we lack that knowledge at this point.

a flimsy one, if true.
using the rules "a d-1 no-lunch is impossible via the rules" but not reading them to see that a tie results in no-lunch" seems...lazy. Yes, as town, I had to go back and reread them once or twice because I was confused. I thought it pitiful of myself then, and was merely glad that i hadn't said anything aloud.

I have not seen @JOE @CARRADICE & @ZFR's responses to my 827. please respond.

I find that you are doing much better toDay than yesterDay, and that you have some good points against ZFR and Yogsloth. Enought that i would be willing to vote Yogs at present, I think, at least compared to Carradice, despite the latter no longer being in my 'never vote" camp, due to ZFR's tsalking.
I am reading you as leaning town, and ZFR as neutral/town. I personally have noticed a lot of players so far doing this whole "avoid and evade questions until pressured into them" thing.

I think i prefer Yog's narrative on 834 to ZFR's narrative in this instance. However in this particular concatenation of events, I fail to see either side waving i giant orange flag and saying "I'm Scum!!!" The game would be so much easier if they did.
I regret to say that i see Lift vs ZFR as either TVT or T(L)vsS(Z).

Don't BEEP me, you insufferable answering machine! The only thing allowed to BEEP me is a fax machine, and I know you aren't one!
In case a human ever hears this, you told me to call back later, so here I am! Is anyone there? Or am I just standing here stupidly talking into this plastic device that does nothing?
Now I feel silly.....

Simple reason. When i wrote this SPF had already flipped town. I wasn't going to waste my time wondering if the one player (SMFR) who flipped town had ulterior motives for lying about Carradice's "non-vote" vs it being a simple mistake. The other two of the three listed could easily be scum, trying to repeat the lie often enough and loud enough that people believed it without checking for themselves, especially against a player who iirc wasn't around at EOD1.

Agreed. I want to head more of carradice's suspects, as mentioned previously in this post. (I asked Carradice Joe & others to respond to unanswered questions from my earlier post.)

exactly what i later asked of folk and ZFR answered; glad that he was thinking along these lines too.

i do like these award names!!
however, i am becoming wary for fear of being pocketed.
good--great even--point about C. The only regular copproof role is GF, but even that "returns town" rather than "returns nada".
re roles/PMs, Carradice and Trent both hate discussing PMs/roles in previous games. I'm surprised there wasn't a bigger stink made by trent over the role convo, tbh.
Trent's failure to comment on this is troubling.
hmm. valid, i guess? unsure beyond the Direct Quote.

Onto Page 18!!

Another thing to make a cop useless is a modifier of naive &c.
did other flips have muddyfiers? hu-muddyfiers? de-hu-muddyfiers?

If you weren't feeling well, I'd ask if you were trying to steer the vote here.
OFFTOPIC: I do really hope that you are feeling better soon.
++++++++++
The fact that our eliminated players flipped town makes it worth taking notes of, and any player who refuses to answer a question just because it might be uncomfortable, even from an imprisoned player, should be under more scrutiny.
+++++++++
I'm glad it is such a hit! It is always heartwarming to see someone enjoy a special gift.
Yes, I need to reread him. maybe even before tonight is done.
If i [promise to be less fond of him will you be more fond of me? :OOOO /jk
I guess it is a sad state of affairs when most everything I read from early carradice seemed like something I could agree with or write, if the situations were reversed, but ZFR is slowly and surely making me doubt Carradice.

+++++++++++++++
Why ZFR? YesterDay you were convinced that Lift was the scum, now it is ZFR. Is this OMGUS?
Give your reasoning please. And idk, previous games and before you read your PM you were more direct, less ambiguous or asking open-ended questions that could be taken multiple ways (eg you nialed things down rather than asking questions designed to get others to think).

Considering that recently, after one of your previous games, you were happy(?) or at least mentioning Is this tone shift real, and if so, is it indicative of scum trying to not lie? I must ponder this and other questions. I still think you are town, but not as convinced as I was yesterDay.
+++++++++++
LOL XD true this.

+++++++++++

Permit me the pleasure of quoting your own statement to you.
Would you be calling town overpowered if you knew scum was weak? Maybe, but the only way you would know is if you were scum.
Your third lime is very possible--even probably--from a scum!LAMIST position.
IOW, the 3rd quoted line doesn't cut the mustard until we know your flip.
Your second lemon is irrelevant in that whether you know something or not makes no difference. It either is, or it isn't. Only Pooka at present knows what roles each side has. Pooka knows if it is balanced, or if it favors A > B, or A < B.
This entire statement lends credence to the "scum!ZFR" POV.

++++++++++++++
lets not have another fight, please? I know you don't want one, but lets all plz be careful.
Also, from my POV, I'm not sure that I would have picked up on or necessarily agree with your translation of modifiers?

+++++++++++++++++++++++

This is along lines that I am also getting. Not sure I like it, but nothing much has been discussed in the last 2 days. (less than 50 posts in the last 24 hours). I do hope this wasn't because ppl were waiting for me.
In your opinion, would RB be powerful enough to help balance our confirmed crew?
thank you. This--as mentioned above--bothered me tremendously.
Thank you for the notice.
I'm drawing closer to being willing to lunch Carradice in order to gain info, but I would prefer to do so on D3. he does rightly say that--if there is a RB and if Carradice is a cop--that imprisoning the cop is bad strategy when they might be useful late game.
Also, i fear some of my D1 defensiveness might have been from digging in my heels, unwilling to see the light.
I'm still have leaning scum
yogs
zfr.
not sure about the rest but Carradice isn't as lock-town as he had been. Only willing to lunch him D3 or if ZFR flips town.

Leaning town
Joe
lift
Pooka
probably carradice

Unknowns:
trent (feel better soon!)
Flocke (really nice observations, but very rare.)
dedo

Given that we must keep the possibility in mind that he is passing his posts around for filtration before posting, I am doubting ZFR being scum, unless he is trying to herd the crowd of ppl along in his chosen direction.

lift has been much better in my books toDay than yesterDay.

++++++++++++

lol, YES!!!!
If I was back on page 15 on 20 PPP, I'd have probably asked for a sub, as this is now close to 900 posts, and 20*15=300. however
+++++++++++
i see. therefore, i partly retract what i said about your post being illogical, but in a vacuum, it is.
+++++
Assuming that you are town, which I still think you are, this is true. however, you must admit that if you are scum, the collective we's [wheeze] have at least been grilling one scum.
+++++++
Thinking: If Carradice is scum, so is joe. if he is town, zfr is--in all likelihood--scum or doing scum's dirty work.
If C is scum, would fellow scum be distancing as (assuming for the moment that they are scum) Vitek did in 880 and Dedo did in 886? Hmm.
+++++++++++

not sure if this is tunneling, blackballing or correct.

+++++++++
1. Thank you. Re margin of error, true, but it would indicate your certainty about your stats.
2.& 3. Thank you for the info. I do like your reasoning in this comment. have you seen a luncher or a survivor?
4. Thank you. @LIFT What do you think of this comment? does LAL apply here?
5. Barring WIFOM, I agree.

4 pages done!!! I am caught up!!! (5 pages)

I need to reread Vitek, but we have until after weekend, and I my next two days are extremely busy so I might put it off a bit because he's funny.

To kick of conversation, I
vote yogsloth

I had to travel unexpectedly but have connectivity and some spare time. Catching up.

How about ZFR?


Basically your point is that 75 percent of the time it works every time.

Agreed. I didn't like the way that question was structured either. In the end Micro says that it was to meant to indicate certainty but the general levels of that have been already established, I believe, so what's the point in asking this?


I wondered about the exact same thing but I kind of gave Trent a free-pass over him not feeling well and forgot about it. But it is a good observation nonetheless.

I already do feel a bit better about you as I like most of your recent long posts. Bit first impressions are hard to shake down.


By the way, something I just realized about Carradice while reading the ZFR/Micro discussion on the matter. If we mislynch Today it's very likely another Townie will get NKed during the night, likely leaving us at MYLO Tomorrow. If Carradice turns up, unblocked and with a positive scum investigation would we really want to use that information?

What's the question for me?

You realize we'll be at MYLO at D3?

Saying "I'd be willing to lynch X for info but I'd prefer to do so on MYLO" is bad. Very. That infor will only help you in the afterlife if X is Town.

On MYLO you don't lynch for info. You lynch scum, period.

Didn't realize that it'd be mylo, no....thanks. That changes things.

Sorry, it was both 825...
and 827 (roundabout)
Joe said:

to which i said
what are your thoughts on what I proposed? does this match up with what you see happening, as mentioned in 526?

also, in 896 I said and Do you see Compulsive visitor as a pro-town or pro-scum role?

+++++
I guess that what I meant was "what are the chances that you feel, please give the answer in percents, and is it solid percent to you? is this opinion-based percentage solid with no margin for "I could be wrong", plus or minus 5% 3% 20% what?
In this case, ZFR said it was 75%

Please answer my question to everyone, as quoted above?

RE: your very last sentence, idk if this is town being wary or very skillful scum planting seeds of doubt.

No, it doesn't match at all with what I meant.

What I meant:
If Carradice flips scum, this points to Joe being Town not because of any support, but because on D1 when Carradice wagon was growing to 3 (while everyone else was at 1), all of a sudden Joe's wagon grew to 3 pretty quickly.
This doesn't strictly mean that everyone on Joe's wagon was scum trying to push a second wagon to protect Carradice (though it's worth looking into), but I think it does point to Joe being Town. Because no scum would allow a second scum wagon to form so quickly, unless they're the worst scum team ever.

I don't disagree with what you wrote, but it's way oversimplifies things. So if Town is lynched on D1 those who defended them are likely Town, and those lead the lynch should be FOSed? Eh, Town mislynches on D1 happen more often than not, and there is usually no more than 1-2 scum on the wagons. And defending a Townie who's about to be lynched and flip is pretty much a basic scum tactic.

In other post you asked to have your questions of #826 answered. Well, your questions were in #827, and they were already answered in #854 (awards and the reasons for them).

I can see that you are trying to keep a distance, responding to the vague threats of Z-whatever.

It seems that people call OMGUS to any vote that they do not like. It is a cheap think, you just need to type 5 letters. However, I am still to vote for Flocke or Trent or Vitek or Dedo or whoever else was calling my play scummy or whatever. I have not grilled them, and I have not tunneled on any on them. On D-1 Lift was skating. On D-2 he has not. On D-1 the guy I voted for this week started an insane tunnelling based on double standards, over a disagreement on rules. Possibly because his is having RL problems and has lost his temper now and again. He not only started an insane tunnelling. He has dedicated to me a collection of rude posts, even more when trying to reach out to him in order to keep the game civil (which of course he dismissed in a petty way), to the point that I am utterly fed up with this guy already. I have patience, up to a point, and with that guy I already gave up.

However, the tunnelling is there, and feelings of being angry or indignant are well-known ATE that scum might be using. But, above all, his line of play makes no sense, he started with something absurd, went on with absurd things, and he NEVER acknoweledged it.

So yes, this guy makes a better candidate than Lift on D-2. Call it whatever you like, but remember that on D1 I have not pressed anything about most of the people that actually voted for me.

I explained it before. I will repeat it to you so that you look more townie to the eyes of whatever: I am reading and voting based on overall behaviour, on on whom are they targeting.

I reckon that Yogs was skating, that Vikte was mirroring now and then, that Flocke is missing altogether (possibly even past the 48 hours rule), that Trent has been tunnelling (but only after the Reading-gate and of all the players, I expected that from him and from Lift, if they were town, at least for the first day, but we are on D2, Lift considered other players, at least). Who of them are viable candidates on D-2. Who has shown the most unfounded behaviour (regardless of the last excuse he might want to hold on to). There you have my vote.

So yes, after making a delayed entry, receiving flak even before starting, then more for absurd reasons when I still even did not know my alignment, etc etc etc This game has gone on for two weeks seemingly on a single note. Also it seems like people do not read my posts, or read them in weird ways, and sometimes they ask for repetitions (like in your case). So, why not reading what I actually posted first?

I had hope in getting the blocker imprisoned, then being the lightning rod that catches the NK, so if there is someone else with investigative shots, they might keep safe for another Intrigue phase (night). Who knows, if there is someone with one doc or roleblock shot, I might even make it through the night! However, this is something to be decided by a majority. Just remember that scum is winning this and tunnelling and considering one guy will not win the game.

At dawn of D-2 asked everyone to make a decision and vote for me or whatever if you felt like that. There is not much more that can be said, so...