OK, I did a reread on Carradice. I wanted to see if I'm tunneling too much, but the more I look at it, the scummier it looks.
For starters, please look at this. This is his claim, just before the Day ended. With around an hour to go (we know the time from SPF's post #549 and Pooka's #551)
So, the Day is almost over. Imagine yourself a Townie with an important Role. How would you claim? Here is how Carradice did it.
First he makes a post
540, where he doesn't claim but posts in riddle: "those who were with me in the last three games, do you remember the alignments and roles that I was getting? This one was long due..."
Then he makes another post #542 with just 3 words: "In any case..."
Then he finally claims Cop post #544.
Do you see yourself doing that? Playing around and asking riddles when you have to claim an important PR
and time is running out? But that's not all, looking at the first posts he writes that "this one was long due". How does that make sense for a Cop?
For reference, his three previous roles were: Town JOAT, Neutral pseudo-"Jester" (I don't remember what the role was called, but it involved dying the same way as his sister gogtrial, which made it easy to win the Jester way by getting them both quickly lynched) and a Mafia Redirector.
How does that make Cop long due?
When roulette lands black 3 times in a row, then red is long due. When you get exciting roles 3 times in a row then, just like SPF reasoned in 543, Vanilla is long due. I don't see the Cop making sense.
My hypothesis is that Carradice didn't know what best to claim and cosidered going Vanilla first, then changed his mind for Cop either hoping to have it accepted or getting the real Cop counterclaim, so his lynch at least has some meaning.
@everyone, I know we were caught up in the heat of the moment back then, and that we tend to accept PR claims, but looking at it back now with a clear mind, can you see if the claim makes sense?
Looking at D2
Carradice: ZFR: Starting tunnelling because of a disagreement on rules. Then grabbed on a series of excuses to keep maintaining his vote. He never voted for anyone else. "Now it is the rules, now that he did not read the pm, now that he forgot I was actually voting for him (of all people); now that he says he is a cop; now that another guy says he is a doc; now that scum is underpowered and we overpowered...".
First, Aside from my RVS vote on gogtrial, I made a serious vote on Joe #129, so "he never voted for anyone else" is false. But that's just a minor point...
The main point is that this whole "now this, now that" feels like an attempt to discredit my reasons. Whether you agree with my reasons or not, I gave them, and if you don't like them then fair enough, but this post is purposely written in a way to make it seem that the reasons are just random whims.
I *never* voted him because "he forgot I was actually voting for him"
I *never* voted him because "he says he is a cop". Quite the opposite, I
unvoted him when he claimed Cop and only voted when scene's flip threw doubt on it.
I didn't vote him because of disagreement over rules - that point was explained already multiple times in D1 and was caused by the ambiguity of the time he read his PM".
And voting him for not reading PM was a valid reason that was picked on by multiple players.
Yet this list tries to show my voting reasons as a list of flimsy excuses made by a person who's clutching at straws, in order to reinforce the idea that I'm just a tunneler. Not good.
And finally there is the a/b/c analysis about being blocked which as I said makes no sense, since b and c can't be true. Yet they're not just mentioned as theoretical possibiles, they are actually given same weight as a. Why??
There is an "Information instead of analysis (?)" concept where scum attempt to give information instead of actually analyse. This feels like a similar "shallow analysis instead of analysis" created only to give the appearance that one is doing analysis.
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So, sorry. but I won't change my vote.
God knows I try not to tunnel. I let go when I see I could be reinforcing a preconceived idea. Only last game I dropped off Laser's wagon, when I realised I'm just voting because of leftovers from a previous game, despite my personal dislike of him.
But in Carradice's case the more I read the worse it looks.
Vote stays.
If anyone has reservations about any points I mentioned in this thread, I'll happily hear them.