But you don't have a reason to trust Joppo's result, don't you? As it has been said before hitting a Liberal would mean pretty much nothing to anyone other than Joppo himself, in case he is also a Liberal. At least at this point. You seemed quite adamant in your choice of approach back then and the only scenario in which you'd stray from it was in the face of the top-deck. Now it turns out there is another case and considering how experienced you are I'm sure you were aware of it. Why didn't you bring it up back then?

I'm certain I don't get all of the nuances of the game, that's why I'm considering options and thinking out loud - so others can chime in and provide their points of view. If you read the whole paragraph you've surely seen by the end I was considering the possibility of F!Maxleod playing against his win-con to gain trust. But thanks for teaching me anyway. It helps.

I've provided reasons for my preference on something, just like before, and am asking others for theirs. Thank you for providing yours. It helps.

By the way, I read your previous post again and this made me think:

We still have 7F vs 6L in the active deck, no? It's still possible to draw 3F twice more and right now the odds of this happening is still greater than drawing 3L for example. Obviously the 2F/1L and 2L/1F are most likely to happen but in that case there would be even less information to compare with the first draw. Why do you expect to get any sort of information confirming or denying the first government based on this particular draw (barring another investigation)? Maybe my math is off but I don't think it is.

Last but not least I also considered your suggestion to chose you and I'm tempted by it but I agree it's probably better to test someone of the more imminent presidents rather than someone who is 5 seats away, like we said at the beginning of the game.

The games I play are 7 player and don't have an investigation in the first fascist policy. The investigation is usually considered very important. Yes it can be 2 fascists. But it does make it more likely the person will be more Liberal. Especially when Joppo let me influence who he investigated. He didn't just choose who to investigate by himself. It could be he's fascist and me suggesting you made him think he could clear a buddy, sure. But even if that is the case it will give me more info down the line if fascist policies keep getting enacted.

Now I do want to be in government but I have to weigh in the importance of who of the next 3 presidents is most likely to be Liberal. That's as important as being in government myself. I don't merely want to be vote bought by a fascist. But I'd like you to pick me and if you do hopefully we can get some Liberal policies on the board.

As for your point about the likelyhood of 6 fascist policies being the first 6 deck cards. It's completely possible and happens regularly. We won't truely know about who likely dropped until we have seen the full deck, which is 5 hands of cards or governments. There's aprox a 90% chance that we see 5 Liberal policies without top decking. About 40% chance we see all 6 Liberal policies without a top deck. And about 10% chance we only saw 4 fascist policies

Sometimes when we get 9 or 8 consequtive drawn in a row, top decking is advisable. This will allow us to topdeck Liberal policies or find out for instance that Joppo and/or yourself dropped a Liberal policy.

Exactly. Fascists sometimes clear Liberals to buy themselves credit. And with Joppo already having participated in a F passing government him participating in a conflict would surely lock him out of later governments. So his claim that dedo is L is NAI for Joppo himself.

But the only way dedo can be F now is, if both Joppo and dedo are F.

While starting with an F is bad for us, I would still say test the Chancellor. Dedo is more likely to be Liberal than not (unless him and Joppo both are F), so if there is a conflict, it would help exclude his Chancellor from future governments. If he would force an L, we get an L policy - but we don't learn anything from it.

It's a matter of risk/benefit estimate. If dedo's Chancellor turns out to be F and passes a second F, we have one Fascist locked away. But we would be only one more policy away from Hitler territory. Whether that is a good tradeoff is something that dedo would have to decide, should he draw LLF.

8F vs 6L.

The odds of drawing FFF at this stage are 15%. Not big but far from impossible. As I said though, one shouldn't concern oneself with %ages now.

By the way, you can't pick Maxleod again, he's termlocked.

Personally I'm all for being the chancellor myself.

That was a typo, I don't know where I got the 7 from but I had 8 in mind when I was making calculations.

And yes, I forgot Maxleod is out of the question for this election.


@Lift, do you have any suggestions on next chancellor? Pooka/ZFR or someone else?

Not Pooka. That would pot Pooka in a powerplay position.
Not Maxleod or Joppo, because as ZFR pointed out they are termlocked.
And if you ask me, not Scene. It's partially my read on him because I still think he is the most likely Fascist among us, but, to be honest, partially also because I didn't like his attempt at blackmail at all. It was a very anti-game move.

I'm OK with everyone else. ZFR might be a good choice (Pooka won't nominate him, to avoid power play) or someone from the end of the board to have a chance of testing one of them (it will be quite a while until presidency migrates to the end of the board). Perhaps just go with someone whom you read as likely liberal and test them, to verify that impression, if you get the chance.

Yes. Exactly.

Because that's the current narrative. If that's not the case then it's even more likely to pick 3F in the next draw. The point is that doesn't give us anything we can take to the bank as either scenario is possible.

The issue being a fascist chancellor could take out 2 Liberals, freezing all 3 players and creating a 4v3 out of the remaining players out of which he now has better odds. Albeit the Chancellor looks worse than other 2 players in conflict

On a serious note, can you explain the meaning of this question.

My 6L was simply a correction to dedo, who in turn based it on an assumption that joppo wasn't lying.

I mean I literally quoted the post from which I got 6L.

Why the attempt at shading me with an insinuation that doesn't even make sense (even if I knew joppo's role card because we're both fascist, I wouldn't know if he's hidden an L or really got FFF).
You complain so much that Lift is shading you, yet here you are doing it yourself.

Agreed. If I was in Dedo's place I would nominate ZFR. Joe is somehow making me uncomfortable; I'm not particularly eager to see him or Pooka in government and the rest I still find my opinion too close to neutral. I still need to better gauge the alignment of any of them to convince myself they fall on either side of the scale.
In the case of Lift and Scene, weirdly, they both went back to neutral after being read as somewhat scummy.

(I'd probably vote Yes for the neutrals on the grounds that going "Yes" only when we have certainty wouldn't be a winning strategy.)

Pre-post Edit: But ZFR raises a good point against Scene in #267. Back to the scummy list he goes.

If you're F you'd know if Joppo was L.

I also didn't bother to read the post you were quoting, and got excited that zfr might have slipped up.

OK, but my post still stands. scene's question looks much more like shading rather than "I caught a slip".