EBWOP(to post 285): saw there is asking for who should be the next chancellor/etc......given(based on my reading/skimming) the back and forth between ZFR and scene, i'd suggest maybe making one of them the next pick?

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Inspector GR lounges by the fyre in a fancy high backed chair as the others contemplate what to do next. Pulling out a comedically sized/shaped pipe, he puffs on it a bit, and to few people's surprise bubbles come out of one end.

"That GR.....always suck a kidder" one exclaims, as they and the rest go back to their discussion

I see you are discussing investigating ZFR.

Things I know about ZRR:

FACTS

He's either:

A) A liberal who's... how should I put it... not so smart. Can't do basic math and knows nothing about how probabilities work

B) A lib who doesn't know shit about math..

C) A fascist who's playing dumb. A Leprechaun. Vicious and sly.

A,B or C, he can't be trusted (A because we can't trust his judgement if he's elected, because... not so smart; B and C because well... Fascist?))

So we (the Liberals, who fight for freedom and peace on earth) should not put him in office.

Now, there's also this possibility:

ZFR is a lib and the people who are pusing for investigating him are fascists and want us(libs) to waste the last investigate card on him.

It's actually discussion of nominating a ZFR(or someone else) as chancellor.

Actually, ZFR is(from seeing him play many mafia games) somewhat good with this sort of math.

(underlining mine)
This......this made me chuckle a good deal.

Again, some of us are talking about chancellor nomination choices(ZFR being one possibility), not investigations.

Please tell me you're being sarcastic.

I am not.

Your HH "problem" (it's so simple to me)

Think of it as footy matches. Home and away.

Heads wins match one so 1/2 point for Heads, 0 for Tails

Probability that either Tail or Heads wins the second match: 1/4 each.

That makes the probaibilty that you get HH once you've tossed the first coin:

1/2 + 1/4 = 3/4

I did y best to explain it, hope it helps.

You misunderstood my point. I'm not relying on "what are the odds?". I'm asking if those 4 are the fascists why do they leave the liberals take charge of the game, have most influence in nominations, etc. I have no doubt there's a degree of being busy IRL affecting how much each of them can play BUT once in a while one of them appears, leave a comment related to current events and... it is chill.
For example, in the scenario of the 4 silent fascists I would expect Pooka to transpire some concern when posting #218. His buddies had not posted in a while and he knows he has limited time to do his job of seeding doubt, I would expect some desperation. I can't see it there.

I definitely am keeping (or at least trying to keep) an open mind about Joe. If I see reasons to think him more likely to be liberal I won't dismiss them because they don't fit my pet theory.

Actually, ZFR is pretty capable when it comes to math and probabilities. Those who have played with him before are well aware of it. You are just making a mistake in the HH question. I've been out of school for several years now so I won't even try to explain the answer (in a foreign language, to boot); also the question was supposed to be left for post-game discussion exactly because during the game it will become a distraction.
Another reason to drop it is something that I saw happen in a previous game, is that not everyone is good at math BUT then some players make the erroneous link that "player X disagrees with my math" equals "player X disagrees with me so they must be a fascist". They could be but liberals can disagree on math too.

BTW, like GR said we weren't proposing to investigate him; we were discussing if it's a good idea for Dedo to present him as his chancellor.

You're wrong. You don't add probabilities this way.

You toss a coin. One rolls Heads, the other rolls under the bed. What's the probability that they fell HH?

Answer: 1/2. The one that fell is already decided, the other can be heads or tails.

Please, this is basic maths. I do probability and statistics for a living (Did actually: for 8 years.)

Speaking of IRL(thanks for reminding me to mention it here, btw): Dunno about the others you mentioned, but I myself have been distracted by IRL issues i'm trying to resolve, plus my parent's health needs more attention, so I can only get online during certain hours......hence my somewhat lackluster posting here and elsewhere on the forums as of late.
(also add to that that i'm not too good at playing this game, so I just try to follow along and play as best I can and don't reply much to the mechanics/etc talk that has taken up much of the posting so far)

Yup.......I even made a whole reply about it.....yet Maxxy boy replied to ZFR and not my own post.
(not saying this means anything, of course.....just curious as to why they didn't at least acknowledge my post in their reply to ZFR)

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GR stares into the fyre....wondering what the flames might reveal, given enough time. As he does so, he opens a book taken from one of the many pockets on his coat, and starts to read to himself “....to sleep, perchance to dream – ay, there's the rub, for in this sleep of death what dreams may come…”

Or here is a better way to show it:

Imagine both coins are hidden. What's the probability of HH?

By your logic, H has 1/4 from first coin and 1/4 from second coin.

So: P(HH) = 1/4 + 1/4 = 1/2

Which is wrong. Do you see now how you can't add probabilities this way?


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Your answer 3/4 would be correct if the question was what's the average number of Heads per single coin toss in the above case. In that case you do indeed get a full Head from the fist shown coin and 1/2 from the other one which could be Heads or Tails, so average = 3/4.

I don't have any problem with this and it seems to make the most sense. Simply put he has to play Liberal policy in order to be next president. If he doesn't, he doesn't get to be president. Seems like a win win

If they don't want someone who will be next president, they can always pick me. I'd have no immediate benefit to playing Liberal policy as I won't be the next president.

I answered this twice already earlier in the thread GR. Beware I consider all skimreaders as potential fascist. Why do you get bots downvoting all your posts BTW?

I believe it's optimal fascist strategy for the fascists to get their fellow fascists into play. So when I see quite a few players advocating for a certain player above others it does make me question if that is what is actually happening. It could just be Liberals finding ZFR as a Liberal sounding player with his helpful statistics and such.

Interesting. What about people who mis-quote, and who skim-read so much that they don't even notice that they are quoting the wrong person? I never wrote what you quote me here with. So, by your own reasoning, you are a potential fascist.

The down-voting is probably because I accused GOG of selling DRM-ed games and called them out for not answering to questions about this topic. Some GOG fan-trolls seem to have set their bots on me since then.

No, it doesn't. Because it is wrong. Read a bit about probability and when you have read about the basics, read about the monty hall problem and try to understand that.

But that has no real bearing on this game and can be discussed in detail post-game.

Yikes! Do you even follow the game?!


Well, that same logic can be applied in reversed. Why are the liberals in these people chilling back and letting everyone else (some of whom are likely fascists) take charge of the game? You've played a lot, you know that we have different types of players. Some are more active, some aren't. Some times real life happens so the more active ones can become less so while the less active ones become effectively disappear. My point is that neither of these things is AI - not everyone would try harder just because they are on specific side of things.

Anyway, I do see where you're coming and it's worth it to keep it in mind.

By the way, did you play with Joe previously? If I understand correctly he was F (Hitler?) last time or at least once, in case he took part in most games. How was he back then? He feels somewhat weird to me right now. I gave him credit initially about proposing to open with a specific strategy but maybe that was just dirt in the eyes if he knew that suggestion would be shot down. Or if the Fs are stacked near the end of the line.


I hope they'll get better soon.


Shouldn't everyone but you be considered potential fascist? Or you mean skimreaders are even more frowned upon? How do you feel about Maxleod?


Huh?! Where are you getting downvoted? I thought Scene was still confusing you with GR who's been consistently downvoted into oblivion.

Sorry I meant to quote GR and that post wasn't aimed at you, it was aimed at GR. As was the downvoting question, as you can see he has bots attacking all of his posts

I must have butchered the quoting while replying to multiple people. He's the one who I thought skimread. But it seems I skimread a bit and didn't realise he has IRL issues that gives him limited time for the game

By the way I believe we've heard from pretty much anyone but Cadaver. I'll give Cadaver until tonight (some 12 more hours) to maybe present another point of view and if that doesn't happen or if it isn't a ground-shattering case I'll most likely going to go ahead with my initial choice of ZFR.