Krypsyn: Well, given that the probability of a single one of those three being a werewolf is 38.18% (21/55) and the probability of two of those three being both werewolves is 5.45% (3/55), it doesn't quite seem that probability is on your side. :P
Dammit, Krypsyn, L2Math! I don't care if you had a couple beers and it was the middle of the night...
The correct probabilities, when I don't do something stupid:
One of the three is a wolf = 43.64 (24/55)
Two of the three are wolves = 5.45% (3/55)
None is a wolf = 50.91 (28/55)
Although the probabilities
are slightly against Sage that at least one of them is a wolf, we are now in the realm of Vegas odds. A virtual coin-flip.
Sorry, I am sure nobody else really cared, but I was thinking about that probability since I woke up and realized my error. It really bugged me.
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As for this wagon on SentinelWolf, it really is picking up steam now. Maybe I am just used to the way games around here often move at the speed of snail, but it strikes me as a little fast. He is only one vote away from lynch at this point, by my count. I am all for swift games, but at least let him reply to the wagon before hammering.