budejovice should return soon from his visit to the nearby village and hopefully we can hear what he has to say. I also hope we hear soon from the less vocal villagers.

So, reviewing the votes on SentinelWolf's wagon for Day 1:

1) Rwarehall RVS votes him for his name. Nothing damning about that. It is interesting that he didn't remove the RVS vote or even speak again for the rest of the Day though (except for one reply to how my RVS vote against him was warranted :P). Given that is was the first Day (thus not much to go on regardless) and it did finish up rather quickly, relatively speaking, it is hard to draw a hard conclusion from this.

2) mrkgnao places the second vote, stating that he wants it to go on an active wagon, rather than to a new target (HijacK, in this case). I found it a bit scummy then, and I still do.

3) After a lull in the game, GreenDigitalWolf places the 3rd vote, stating that he wants his vote to create a bigger wagon. This pretty much makes Sentinwolf's wagon, which was stalling until now, a full fledged wagon with renewed momentum. Scummy.

4) trentonlf follows soon after with the 4th vote, stating that SentinalWolf's aggressiveness early on, followed by the silence after his wagon started gaining momentum, made him look guilty. trentonlf had also stated, prior to GreenDigitalWolf's vote, that the game need more activity and that people weren't saying much (Posts 86 and 89). So, although I hate trentonlf's vote placement (4th vote seems perfect for scum to drop in and seal the deal), his prior reasoning and state of mind does exonerate him a little in my mind. Slightly scummy, but I am still leaning town on him.

5) Sage103082 adds the 5th vote, after making some argument that she thinks at one of the players with 'Wolf' in their name is a wolf (Post 93). I picked that out, and ran some quick probabilities for fun on it (twice, since my first time I made a silly mistake). The reason was two-fold: 1) I was genuinely curious what the probabilties were, 2) I wanted to highlight someone possibly forming a rickity groundwork for a later vote. She even notes that she is hesitant about making the 5th vote because of backlash when she votes. Scummy.

6) I hammer, after an extended wait. I think I should have waiting longer, even if the game was starting to drag on. Rwarehall hadn't had a chance to post about the wagon he had started with his RVS vote, and budejovice hadn't (still hasn't) posted at all. Up to you guys to determine how scummy it was, but I'll freely admit that waiting might have been a little more pro-town.

Those are my reads from the lynch wagon from Day 1. It is very possible that one or both wolves sat out of that vote, content to let town kill their own, however that wagon is the best evidence we have so far. That and the NK of JMich, which I will look into in another post (this one has gotten fairly long already).

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pre-post edit:

Interesting.

Call it good psychological skills. His pattern of words was unusually incriminating. Denoting that most of this group believes what they see at first glance, it was a suicide to post like that. Hence why I knew he was not a werewolf. His moves were sloppy. There are various ways of hiding yourself, but he chose the worst one possible given this groups overall psychology. JMich was one of the few who here who analyze the situation before jumping to conclusions. I do not know what plans he laid to unmask the scum, but I'm going to assume he had something in mind.

Also: This should be a very important aspect to take in consideration.

Has anyone else noticed how JMich was killed after accusing GreenDigitalWolf of being scum due to his questionable ethics of voting? Given the fact JMich is one to fear during day and the probability of GDW of being scum, he was the perfect target at night.

This being said, I place my vote on GreenDigitalWolf.
Let's see where this leads now.

Why, if you were so certain of his innocence on Day 1, did you not bring it up then?

Why would I? JMich didn't buy the bandwagon choice of SentinelWolf, went with someone else and look what happened to him now. However, not the scum are in a bad position. If my theory holds true, the scum will act and will unmask themselves.

It's pretty late here and I'm off to bed, so this shall be short.

Before getting into who might or might not be a wolf, there are two things that still bother me and that I feel I need to think about some more:

1) Why did the wolves kill JMich? HijacK offered two theories ("careful examiner" and "accusing GreenDigitalWolf"), but were these really the reasons? Was JMich really the "best" target, given that the wolves' first priority was to kill the Seer? What can we surmise about the wolves' identities from their choice, if anything?

2) What can we deduce about budejovice's identity given that he is still part of the game ("9 players"), despite having apparently missed a whole day and a whole night?

I'm not sure I have any answers, but I'm sure I'm going to think about it (or at least dream about it).

Good night (or good morning).

Interesting. You were one of the first people to say something after the incident, yet didn't say a thing. After others have come forward with an analysis, you threw in yours as well, but I found it a bit sloppy.

The seer would have no information on day 1, so the seer would probably be the same as everyone else which basically invalidates your question IMHO, making you suspicious to me. On the other hand, JMich did play relatively low, so I guess the wolves had a good reason to believe him to be the seer.

Your second question also seems like a herring to me. It doesn't say anything about you or your opinion, you just simply asked the obvious.

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1) Hijack "knowing" his innocence is also very interesting, but I also find it a very blatant way to accomplish anything, so I'll consider it a false lead for now. And on day 1, he had an early vote, yet never changed it later. An early evasive strategy maybe?

2) I definitely agree with Kypsyn about GreenDigitalWolf's shady behavior though it's a bit early for me to call him anything.

In response to the inquiry. It was day 1, hard to judge much. I made a RVS vote. Seemed to be more than enough discussion going on. Didn't see anything that stood out to me. If anything I thought my RVS vote was well-placed Clearly wrong in hindsight, but I was happy with it at the time.

Based on early comments, I agree and am liking GreenDigitalWolf both for vote placement and entanglement with JMich who died. But before I place any vote, I'll need to re-read the thread and try to put this all into context as well as see if anything else sticks out given the new information.

No reason to stay on the fence.

GreenDigitalWolf is a solid suspect. Vote placement is bad. Reasoning is a little suspect. The clincher is the potential that the JMich kill is a response to the vote against GDW. Maybe I shouldn't say this, but I like it more because GDW is a less experienced player and might not have considered the future ramifications of the JMich kill.

Vote GreenDigitalWolf

Beyond that, I have one player I'm leaning a little to being the 2nd wolf.
I have another I believe to be town and a lot of question marks in between.

When I cast my vote the first time around I said I was torn. So my intent on casting my vote was to see the reaction of those around me. The only one who seemed to voice an opinion against it with reasoning was Krypsyn. So now Hijack is saying he knew that SentinelWolf was innocent, yet stayed quite. Why? His reasoning of "Look what happened to JMich" is very suspect. If Hijack had voiced his dissent of voting SentinelWolf since he knew SW was innocent and gave those reasons then I might buy into him "knowing". But, saying JMich was killed for going after GDW is his excuse for not saying anything makes no sense unless he knew JMich dying would put a target on GDW's back. How could he have known JMich would die for accusing GDW? Hijack makes it seem as if he knew SW was innocent along with JMich but kept quiet. A simple "hey I beleive SW is innocent because of...." or telling JMich "be careful I think GDW is a wolf and going after him now might get you killed". Nothing said until after both are dead. Hijack also ended his first statement out after the killing by saying if he was accused it must be a wolf doing it since he gave reasons to suspect everyone.

Are you trying to hide behind twisted logic or are you trying to guide us Hijack?

Read along the lines. Just like the psychology part, you're believing what you see. My plans go accordingly so far. Quick answer to your question: Defending someone who had 4 votes in a round where every word is subject to suspicion was ridiculous. After all, our objective is to also survive outside of catching the scum.

Interesting because the person giving me bad vibes (and 2nd choice) was HijacK. He did come up with his theory very early in the thread today. Did he consider this as a wolf at night? I did not catch that last point in my initial read through (stopped at the lynch, should have read on and didn't register a name with the first to accuse GDW), thank you trentonif for the insight.

If not, then GDW is a good candidate, as a new player, might not have considered the future ramifications of killing the person suspicious of him.

I firmly believe one or the other is a wolf. I'm not seeing a scenario where both of them are.
If HijacK had this pre-planned to pin it on someone, it would not be his wolf buddy. There are only two wolves and it would be very foolhardy to sacrifice one of your own this early just to gain some cred.

For now, my vote remains on GDW, but I can be readily convinced to switch to HijacK given numbers. I do suggest that if we pick the wrong one, the other goes next (of course we can discuss this tomorrow). I'd be willing to bet we have one wolf between the two of them.

Very interesting. Just like in the beginning of day 1, trentonlf was very eager to question me as he is now, but only me. And you are supporting such motion without even questioning him. You 2 just got higher on my list.

Well, you pointed the finger at GDW. If GDW turns out to be a wolf, you have my apologies and then trentonlf is probably next as his post clearly qualifies as a bandwagon stopper.

You should note, my vote is still on GDW, he voice alone is not enough to switch it, but as I said, you were in my radar prior to his mention. Besides, what is there to question? He merely suggested the idea based on the facts of the posts. It's an interesting theory. A good townie wants more information and ideas. Information and ideas are our friend. And by list, do you mean your claw and bite list?

Despite the lack of interest from popperik, I'd still like to pursue what I had begun in my previous post.

I thought a little bit about my second question.

- As I see it, budejovice missed a day and a night.
- Like everyone, budejovice could be one of three roles:
1) Seer: But if he is and he missed the first night, that gives an unfair advantage to the wolves, because the village has lost one identity check, which is a whole lot. I don't think the moderator would allow such unfair advantage.
2) Wolf: But if he is and he missed the first day, that again gives an unfair advantage to the wolves, because we all knew we would not suggest budejovice for lynching due to his absence, so the chance of RVS'ing a wolf on day 1, was 1/10 instead of 2/10, which is significant. Again, I don't think the moderator would allow such unfair advantage.
3) Villager: That seems to be the only option for budejovice. But if we all know that budejovice is a villager, it makes him practically immortal, because the village would not want to lynch him and the wolves would have no reason to prefer him for killing, at least not until they kill the Seer.

If my logic is correct, budejovice becomes an uninteresting player. If my logic is wrong but we still believe it is right (and I still do), it's even worse, because the moderator has granted immortaility to a Seer or a Wolf, which unbalances the game.

So I half-expected to hear that budejovice had run away during the night, never to return. But he didn't.

As I see it, the moderator knows budejovice's identity and he knows everything I have outlined above, yet he allowed him to return. I must admit I don't understand why.

Perhaps budejovice could shed more light on this (he said he'd be sort of unavailable until or through Wednesday, so I expect he'll post today or tomorrow).

Off to work...

[Looks at the duty roster] Sh*t. Again the latrines...