My current suspicion is thus:
If the Fascists see Hitler at no10 on the board, that they will panic, and try to get him in power ASAP to prove his credentials. If JoeSaphire is Hitler at number 10, then the Fascists need to get him to be given Liberal credence early because he will not be able to prove his liberal nature in a presidency for 9 more turns when the game could well be over. There plan will be to nominate Hitler early and to get him to pass a Liberal card as soon as possible to achieve this.
Using Random.org would be a cunning excuse to do this if ZFR is Fascist. He doesn't need to give a legit reason why he's picking the no10 placed player on the board because it was an 'fluke random chance'.
The chance of ZFR being Fascist or Hitler given that I am Liberal is 4/9, so 44.4%, with a 5/9 or 55.6% chance that he's Liberal.
I don't like Random.org as town play or the fact it brought up the 10th placed player. There's a genuine concern that this could be an early ploy for the Fascists to put Hitler forward and because of this I'm inclined to Vote No
. Unless I can be convinced otherwise @ZRF
So 6 Liberal policies and 11 fascist policies. Chances of 3 Fascist policies can be calculated as so:
(11/17)*(11/16)*(11/15) = 32.6%
So unlikely that 3 Fascist Cards are called and it's 67.4% likely our President and Chancellor get fully tested. So we get a decent idea of confirmation on alignment with the early cards.
As a Liberal I'm happy to have you test my alignment with any chancellorship although I'm sure both every other Liberal and Hitler feel the same way. Fascists perhaps won't want to be tested early as although they get to pass Fascist legislation, they lose cred. As the odds increase or decrease of 3 Fascist policies they lose less credibility drawing those 3 Fascist policies.
Someone from Germany trying to snatch power straight away. What does this remind me of?
*Dances into the room* Jazz Hands
First time playing this game, seems like it will be fun
So Scene, why are you so concerned with whether or not 3 Fascist cards will be in play at once?
Because if a Fascist policy is passed by the first government then we know there is a 67.4% chance it's happened because one of, or both of, the players are fascist. Where as there's a 32.6% chance it's because of the card draw. Calculating the odds each round helps us analyse the governments actions.
So whenever a card draw occurs we get information of the likely inclination of the Chancellor/President. But it isn't as clear as when someone dies in Mafia. It could genuinely be an unfortunate draw, thus we look at the odds.
And if a Chancellor is Hitler he will likely to vote with Liberal policies so that he gets put into power after 3 Fascist votes are cast
The other information is from voting records. We get to see who voted and then we can ask if their vote was reasonable and for the liberal cause
The last information we get is when a President picks a Chancellor. Does he do it quickly without information or slowly analysing information? Fascists have an agenda and not make reasonable picks.
The Chancellor and President may have different versions of events when a Fascist card is drawn and we have to decide who we can trust.
Once we trust certain players are Liberal, ie town read, then we will try to get them into government so we get Liberal policies passed. Ideally we want 2 quite strong town reads early. If the Town read starts to pass Fascist policy we re-assess our read of them.
Anyway enjoy the game and I hope the new addition is doing well
Joe, are you fascist? I want to get a good 'feel' of you.
Bwahahahaha but still my suspicion above is unwavered. Humour is used as deflection and random.org is not town play even though I know you do use it when playing Town. I kind of think you partly do it when playing Town in order that you can do it in a later game when playing Scum. At least 2 games you've been told it's reads as Scummy and you still do it. If you are Town again and still using random.org you need to stop.
I can see it's perfectly plausible your Liberal and using random.org but because I don't consider random.org to be Town play and because it could put an unfortunately no10 placed Hitler into power I'm very hesitant to give you a yes vote but I haven't voted no yet either.