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ZFR: Pooka, Lift. Why did you vote yes?
The same question to SPF.
I would like a pre-vote on how to proceed, I would nominate either ZFR or flub. Flub because then we could follow with his presidency if we manage to pass a L. If I draw FFF then I would pass presidency automatically to ZFR. How does this plan sound to you?
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blotunga: I would like a pre-vote on how to proceed, I would nominate either ZFR or flub. Flub because then we could follow with his presidency if we manage to pass a L. If I draw FFF then I would pass presidency automatically to ZFR. How does this plan sound to you?
Works for me.
I don't know, it seems I wasn't thinking straight last night. Ugh.

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ZFR: Pooka, Lift. Why did you vote yes?
1. I have no strong opinions against scene and ZFR, so I saw no big reason to vote a no.
2. We're not yet at the point where we have to be very careful about Hitler being chancellor.

As for blotunga's pre-vote, I am okay with ZFR being chancellor, but flub in my opinion, should be tested as president and not chancellor. So ZFR it is (unless we can vote for another guy).
Post edited February 05, 2019 by PookaMustard
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PookaMustard: I don't know, it seems I wasn't thinking straight last night. Ugh.

1. I have no strong opinions against scene and ZFR, so I saw no big reason to vote a no.
2. We're not yet at the point where we have to be very careful about Hitler being chancellor.

As for blotunga's pre-vote, I am okay with ZFR being chancellor, but flub in my opinion, should be tested as president and not chancellor. So ZFR it is (unless we can vote for another guy).
Why do you think that a flub president without any previous knowledge would benefit us?

@Flub whom would you pick as president in case you pass the 3rd F?
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PookaMustard: I don't know, it seems I wasn't thinking straight last night. Ugh.

1. I have no strong opinions against scene and ZFR, so I saw no big reason to vote a no.
2. We're not yet at the point where we have to be very careful about Hitler being chancellor.

As for blotunga's pre-vote, I am okay with ZFR being chancellor, but flub in my opinion, should be tested as president and not chancellor. So ZFR it is (unless we can vote for another guy).
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blotunga: Why do you think that a flub president without any previous knowledge would benefit us?
Didn't say that it would benefit us, but I said that if we were to put him into a position of power, then as president is ideally better than chancellor. Either case, I'm voting no to him.
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ZFR: Pooka, Lift. Why did you vote yes?
As I said in post 661 I was fine with your scene+you suggestion. So I voted for it. Having a re-shuffled deck, it would also have been a chance to get to 5L before handing a presidency to one of the suspicious triple. I'm not sure about scene, as I elaborated. He is mostly himself, just a bit more silent. That makes him neutral, so in my book less suspicious than flubb, rtcvb and especially Joe. So I thought it would have been worth a shot. But I wasn't sure enough about scene to strongly advocate for this government, since a relatively safe president is coming up now.

@blotunga: safe play for the 4-th L would be you+ZFR. Or, if you prefer, you+trent. But as previously discussed, I get the idea of testing one out of the suspicious triple. So I'm fine with it as long as it isn't Joe. I still think that it's a good assumption that rtcvb is a Hitler candidate (which would still make him a safe chancellor, since we're not at 3F yet) and I don't trust flubb, but then again, I never do. I always read him as scummy and he never does anything to convince anyone otherwise. So I will probably vote yes if you nominate one out of {ZFR, trent, flubb, rtcvb}.
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blotunga: I would like a pre-vote on how to proceed, I would nominate either ZFR or flub. Flub because then we could follow with his presidency if we manage to pass a L. If I draw FFF then I would pass presidency automatically to ZFR. How does this plan sound to you?
Either works for me. If pushed I'd vote for ZFR



I have a new theory, but it can wait a bit...
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blotunga: ..............

@Flub whom would you pick as president in case you pass the 3rd F?
I would pick from the small group I mentioned earlier (post #730).
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blotunga: I would like a pre-vote on how to proceed, I would nominate either ZFR or flub. Flub because then we could follow with his presidency if we manage to pass a L. If I draw FFF then I would pass presidency automatically to ZFR. How does this plan sound to you?
I would vote yes for ZFR or me. If you are wanting to test flub I would also vote yes for that.
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blotunga: ..............

@Flub whom would you pick as president in case you pass the 3rd F?
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flubbucket: I would pick from the small group I mentioned earlier (post #730).
The question was about whom you'd pick as president if you end up passing an F and using your presidential power. Is it still blotunga or trent?

@blotunga.
I don't trust trent. If you want to test, pick rtcvb or flubb, in that order.
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ZFR: I don't trust trentonlf.
huh.

who would you pick as your chancellor? Top 2? (You can't pick Joe for both of them)
RTCVB is either illogical or Hitler. Because of this he's certainly someone who can't be Chancellor after 3 Facist policies come into play (if they come into play)

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JoeSapphire: and then I thought "Oh wait there's still a vote with special election, so they might trust me if I promise, in the case of FFF or trent screwing me over, to elect ZFR. If I don't elect ZFR then they just vote it down, it's a waste of a power but..."
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JoeSapphire: BUT! Either Lift or Joe is certainly Liberal (spoiler alert - it's me).
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ZFR: While I think you're right, technically it's not "certainly". There is a chance both of you are fascists and Lift did this so he could implicate himself after some time, while "clearing" you.
I think it's too risky a move. While you create conflict to distance yourself in Mafia, in Secret Hitler all you end up with is both of you outside any government.

(Incidentally, I'm happy there is finally a *real* conflict i.e. one where you're sure one person is scum (so one based on investigation or arguing which cards were passed). In the previous game we never had them.

Some other pairings I thought about:

Theorem: Pooka and Lift can't be both scum (barring bad play on Pooka's part)
Proof: Assume Pooka scum. He is a president and has to elect a fellow chancellor. When would ever F choose a fellow F as his chancellor? Two reasons: He wants to make be very sure a fascist policy is passed (even if he draws 2 Ls) OR he wants to pass a liberal policy and clear two fascists with one stone.
Neither applies here. There was only 1 L, so scumPooka knew his presence was enough to pass an F policy, and there is no way scumPooka at this point wanted to pass an L policy to clear himself and Lift. Not when there was a good 62.5% chance they'd be getting FFF anyway.
scumPooka would know he has to pass a F policy, either by burying the remaining L or getting FFF anyway. Either way, he was better off getting a Liberal into government so the liberal's name gets tainted too by the F passed.

A corollary of the above: blotunga and Lift can't both be scum.
Proof: if blotunga is scum, Pooka is too, hence Lift isn't (as per above proof). If Lift is scum then Pooka isn't (as per above proof), hence blotunga is Liberal.

A corollary of the above: blotunga and Pooka must be on same team (note that without the above, we can still have a case of fascist Pooka clearing liberal blotunga).
Proof: trivial.

A corollary of the above: liberal!Joe, scum!(blotunga & Pooka) combination is not possible (i.e. if Joe is liberal, then blotungaPooka has to be liberal, and if blotungaPooka is scum then Joe must be scum).
Proof: If Joe is liberal, Lift is scum therefore Pooka and blotunga can't be scum. Rest you do for homework.

Any comments on the above?

My thoughts:

a) It does depend on Pooka not making a mistake. I wonder if scumPooka who just got into the game might not have picked scumLift by accident.

b) My money would be on Lift being the scum, with other three liberals.

c) Why wouldn't Lift scum create a conflict with liberal blotunga claiming he passed him FL? Could it be he's actually a liberal?
I think I posted most of this without underlining things. It all makes sense,

It leads me to ask:

Why doesn't Blotunga not trust Pooka or want to be in government with Pooka? Maybe they are both Scum and he wants them both to get their chance seperately. Perhaps Pooka didn't want to drown Lift because his key objective was to confirm Blotunga.

Why does @Lift read Blotunga as Liberal? If you know you're Liberal, the likelyhood is Pooka is fascist, so why would you think a fascist Pooka would tell the truth about Blotunga?

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JoeSapphire: So I have a theory - it's kindof frustrating because now that I have information I'm put into a position where I can't be trusted. Frustrating and fun. But I'll explain how my thought process worked.

Of course, even if you trust that I'm not F, you have to consider that I could be just totally wrong.

Anyway:
There were three things that struck me:

1 - Lifthrasil said investigation of me turned up F.

2 - Pooka said investigation of Blotunga turned up Liberal.

3 - Pooka trusted Lifthrasil over me, and said that "it seems he [Joe]'s desperately doing anything to sow distrust among liberals."

My conclusions:

1 - Lifthrasil is F. This needs no expounding.

2 - Initially I thought blotunga fairly confirmed by this - I've explained my logic already, but for those who weren't paying attention: 1. Blontunga didn't want Pooka as president :- blotunga and pooka aren't both F. 2. Blotunga was keen for me to be president, which made me think him more likely to be liberal.
HOWEVER - he began wavering with the Joe 4 Prez plan, even before Lifthrasil stuck his nose in.
It also occurred to me that my 1st conclusion - Pooka and Blotunga can't both be F - could be wrong IF Pooka was Ade H-man. Perhaps an F, seeing that the cards were likely FFFFFFFL, and that the next two likely in presidency were Fs, would want to avoid H-man getting smeared.

3 - This was what got me puzzling the most. Now it might just be that I think Pooka sucks because he's said negative things about me, but no-one else seems to have joined either the Lifthrasil or Joe camps so strongly. ZFR initially said that he leant towards Lifthrasil, and then logicked that Lifthrasil might be the scum.
It was the particular phrasing "it seems he's desperately doing anything to sow distrust among liberals." that got me braining. Two things struck me as odd about it: 1 - the hyperbole, "desperately doing anything", which suggests that pooka's heavily leaning toward Lifthrasil. 2 - the wording "distrust among liberals" suggests that Pooka knows who liberals are - well yes the investigation... nevertheless it makes me brain. Now if Pooka's trusting of Lifthrasil is because they're both F friends, it causes problems with the whole "pooka confirms blotunga & blotunga didn't want pooka in presidency". If Pooka's H-man, it causes problems with the whole "pooka sides strongly with Lifthrasil", because H-man doesn't know who the other F friends are.

UNLESS

Pooka H-man passed Lifthrasil LF, and Lifthrasil passed F.

That would explain why pooka knows lift is fascist, and why pooka name blotunga L (if blotunga IS L, H-man can't cause the conflict, if blotunga is F I need not expound.)

So, that's my theory.

I'm not so excited about it now, as when I started writing, but it'd be really cool if I'm right.

The other thing is it's probably best not to elect pooka as chancellor just to be on the safe side.

OOH pre-post edit, I've just seen that ZFR's put up some of his theories which look like they might be as crazy as mine! Here's hoping x
Far more analysis than you usually make, which looks good to me. It could be your a panicing Fascist but I'll run with what you're saying.

1. Yes, you or he is Scum, no doubt

2. Could it be Blotunga is Hitler? He's pushed very hard for him and only him as being President, to get confirmation. A scummy Pooka then picks him to investigate and confirm. Pooka's play has struck me as quite unsubstancial.

Lift being Scum and Pooka being Hitler doesn't make sense. Because Hitler should try to pass Liberal policy to look Liberal and a fascist Lift would enable that.

3. This part of Pooka's play maybe understandable if you are both Liberals. He perhaps believes the investigation result even though if he really received, then it's likely Lift is Fascist

Another point. Both Lift and Pooka get Town points for not smearing their Chancellor.
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supplementscene: So you're saying you're Hitler? I mean Trump, no I meant Hitler
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flubbucket: No.
Why does your avatar have a Hitler mustache?
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ZFR: @blotunga.
I don't trust trent. If you want to test, pick rtcvb or flubb, in that order.
Why don’t you trust me? Is it because I’ve been bored out of my mind with the pace of the game and I’m not posting much or because I have not contributed to the pointless discussion of probabilities? Something else? Who do you trust and why?
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supplementscene: Pointless wall of text.
I didn't said that I don't want to be with Pooka in a government. I was thinking that it would be benefic to have a chancellor from the next 3 in line for presidency.

As for why the rest of what you wrote is pointless: pooka can't be a chancellor because he... Ah damn, i think zeo made a mistake, pooka can be chancellor I think.

Anyway, yes he cleared me. Do I trust him for that? 50% yes. But I have more confidence in ZFR for example at this point. But if the majority says I should pick pooka as chancellor, I have nothing against it. My guess at this point leans to Lift scum at this moment, but there is a chance that pooka confirmed me, not wanting to create a dissent.

So I have 4 theories at the moment.
A: pooka is Hitler, Lift scum, joe town.
B: pooka is town, Lift scum, joe town
C: pooka is town, Lift town, joe scum
D: pooka is scum, Lift town, joe scum
But it pooka is scum I'm not sure why he would clear me. So I find scenario D unlikely.