Do you think Sage was lying?

Do you think that Sage was lying, Bookwyrm?

Not sure. Gut feeling is that she wasn't. Her winning conditions though (assuming those were true) were tough enough though that she could be trying to set up her long game, but the self hammer does make me question that as well.

I think the key to this game at this point are the powers. There seems to be a single town power left in play, though direct transfer does mean it may not be passed to town.

As I've already said, I let it dissipate, so you can be sure it will fall into Town hands tonight. The only problem is the power itself is unknown.

I think Sage was mostly telling the truth, but I think she also mixed in a few small (critical) lies.
-I think her suicide was her effectively giving up (we can ask after the game), since she was all but dead anyway. Since she suicided in the same post as her win condition declaration, I'm inclined to believe that part is true.
-I think her massive read on the day we lynched Flub was true: it helped set up her usefulness to town.
-Her day 1 cop read on me might or might not be true: with so many other nice powers, why use that one instead of, say, finding out how many power roles are in the game with her overwatch power? Remember, before she died she said she had at least one more use of it. Her claim of a cop is easily faked since TwilightBard already did that exact action (wait a day to see if it sticks, then she can claim it too, including the exact same reason). And if only one person is moving around, she's already got one scum identified.
-Same with bulletproof: claim that can't be easily falsified while she does something else (or nothing). She might or might not have lied.
-I'm inclined think that her last read, that only Ix was moving around, is a lie; I think she saw one other person moving around. She might already have an idea of who was scum, so she can pick the townie. She says only a townie is revealed, and scum can immediately see the declaration of "Hey, I'm helping you scum guys, so don't kill me". This helps keep her safe from scum, and if Ix flipped town then she could fall back on the ninja idea, or some other variation that allows scum to start hiding. As a declared neutral, it wasn't like she wasn't already living on the edge.
--Alternatively, Ix IS scum, and she'd have started relying on her bulletproof to help keep her alive to a moral victory.

Sage had to work hard, playing both sides against each other. It would be easier to kill a few scum first for town points, then switch sides once scum numbers are few and town has built some trust in her. The other way around leaves too many scum alive for late game, and her neutral alignment would get her killed when town start reviewing her actions. This next bit is pure speculation on my part, but I suspect that one of her "useless" powers was a 1 shot vig. Align with scum, get down to 2 town and 1 scum, let scum NK a townie while she vig's scum (easier than guessing which townie the scum will NK so she can hit the other one). 1 town player left alive and she wins.

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My player reads:

I'm still waffling between a scum pair or a single scum.

I'm pretty convinced Quad is town. If he isn't, scum has basically won since several people trust him.

I think Ix and Robb are the same alignment, town or scum. I currently have them leaning town; all of the posting seems to fit together. Ix is actually talking about why some things might have occurred (like Sage lying). Also, the power shifts seem to confirm the story: we've got a missing power from Quad and no one has counter claimed about it even though it is far enough back that countering won't draw a target.

JMich is a tough read, but I think he might be town. He doesn't seem to be excluding possibilities, and he seems to be considering what people are saying and trying to work out what is going on.

I'm not sure about CSPVG. He just hasn't said quite enough to give a decent read, but his last post where he's voting Ix is ringing my alarm bell. He gave several reasons to vote for Ix, but they seem incredibly weak to me (do you really think Sage wouldn't have lied?). He's my back up scum for the moment.

And that leaves my current favorite for scum: Krypsyn. He's been trying to discount possibilities like Sage lying, he bought Adalia's doctor claim pretty straight up (but dismisses a different doctor claim), and the lack of NK explanation seems weak to me. He's pushing hard for Ix as the lynch. His posting feels off, when taken together.

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-I think the scum have already voted, if there are two scum. If we had a scum pair that hadn't voted yet, I think we'd already have a lynch by now.

I think I'm comfortable enough with my reads to go ahead and Vote Krypsyn. If he flips town, we're in trouble with a possible 4v2 scenario.

It's not that I do not think that Sage could have lied to us, I just find it unlikely after her reveal and self-hammer. I do think that it could have been her giving up, but for a different reason than what you may believe, namely: frustration. I think she was frustrated that she'd observed something, after giving us credible information on a previous occasion, shared it, and been voted for.

I felt rather indecisive yesterday. I badly wanted to vote for Ixam, as I've believed him to be scum for a long time, but thought that many of you may just see it as me being overly attached to lynching a specific person, and therefore being scummy. So I went for Sage, against my better judgement.

Also, I fail to see how any of the reasons I have given are all that weak. He posted bizarrely in some cases, this I found suspect. He was near lynched, but managed to survive, which I find suspect. He was reveal to be the only one moving around on a night when we had a night kill, and that was suspect.

The last case is enough grounds for a lynch in my mind. I should have followed through with it yesterday, and I did not. I have a deep conviction that Ixam is most likely scum, and I'm feel it's necessary that we get him so that we as townies can will this game.

While looking over my post in notepad: "Don't forget to bold the vote before posting. Don't forget to bold the vote before posting."
"My arguments look okay." *Copy, paste, post*

Vote Krypsyn.

I never 'bought' adalaibooks' claim, I just thought we should give him the benefit of the doubt in the absence of a counter-claim. I never 'dismissed' Ixamyakxim's claim, per se, merely questioned the timing of it and brought to light holes in his story.

But, alas, you have already made your choice. So much the pity.

Bugger, I made a lot of errors in my above post (spelling and grammar wise). I apologise.

I've scanned back through the thread, primarily looking at votes and LIft's vote totals (especially scum votes) and browsing some of the posts. I think there is just one scum left, and I think Krypsyn is it.

-Ix and Robb seem pretty close even early in the game. The known scum players, not so much.
-CSPVG has been on Ix's case since Day 1. He did sideline to help lynch Sage, and he didn't have a vote down during the furor surrounding Flub and Adalia, but he's been voting almost solely Ix before and after (I didn't check all of his posts to see whether/how much he deviated).
-JMich is much more solidly town in my book, when I started putting his early posts together with his later posts.
-Krypsyn is much more solidly scum in my book. I'm going to compare it to the scum feel that I got while looking at Adalia; it is in bits and pieces all over the place. For example, lets look at Hijack's wagon: HijacK - 8 (dedoporno, RWarehall, trentonlf, Robbeasy, Bookwyrm627, flubbucket, adaliabooks, Sage) with Krypsyn having stated he planned to hammer (possibly losing the lynch because we were in over time?). We know Dedo, RW, and Trent are town. There is a little doubt about Robb, probably more about me. Then scum start pushing the wagon. Flub, Adalia, then Sage (neutral) beats Krypsyn to the hammer.

I can't speak for Robb, but I'd already voted for Hijack earlier (with reasons) and moved off when no one else was interested. When Ix's wagon fell apart and Hijack's took off, I was more than happy to go back.

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CSPVG:
Why do you think Sage wasn't likely to lie before she finally gave up? Considering her win condition, why wouldn't Sage lie to try and kill a townie, after she'd already helped some scum into the grave?
After giving up, I also don't see her stopping to correct any lies she may have already laid down. And it would have been pretty mean-spirited to out anyone during her resignation post.

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Krypsyn:
What holes did you poke into Ix's story? You've offered an alternative scenario, yes (and even a believable one), but I don't see how you've found holes in his version.

I might be as wrong about you as I was about Trent. The difference is that I based almost all of my scum tell on Trent on what I thought was a single lie on his part. For you, it is a feeling of something wrong in your posting, similar to what turned me to track Adalia.

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It's a hot today. The air in the shelter is stagnant and flies as big as june bugs fly around your heads. But still the discussion goes on.

Vote count

Krypsyn - 3 (Quadralien, Robbeasy, Bookwyrm)
Ixamyakxim - 1 ( Krypsyn )

With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Krypsyn is closest to lynch at L-1
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The main one is how he was the only player Sage103082 saw moving on Night 4, and a player was NKed. The alternative scenario is a generalized poking hole as well, since he is presenting it as the only way it could have happened.

However, it doesn't much matter at this point. I can't see how Ixamyakxim won't hammer me at this point. I don't think it will lose us the game, so at least you'll have my wagon to go on Tomorrow. ;)

Oopsie. Missed one.

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Vote count

Krypsyn - 3 (Quadralien, Robbeasy, Bookwyrm)
Ixamyakxim - 2 ( Krypsyn, CSPVG )


With 7 alive it takes 4 to lynch
Krypsyn is closest to lynch at L-1
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Just in case you're town, any thoughts on CSPVG?

Besides extreme lurking and popping in to vote for me, plus never claiming a power, I have nothing to go on with him. I thought he had a solid vote on me early, but after that it seemed a bit much.

Bookwyrm am I correct in assuming your post meant he didn't vote for Adalia or Flub on either of the days we lynched them?
(I suppose I could go back and look, but if you already have the info...)

I didn't stop to try and read all of his (or anyone's) posts, but I don't remember seeing him name in any of Lift's vote totals around that section posts. It would be safer if you go back and check for yourself, of course.