Vote flubbucket

It seems I received the power yesterday and last night I investigated flub. He is Monolith scum! I had a suspicion about him after his "I can't be trusted" comment. When he later said he welcomes all investigations on him it sealed it for me as to whom was best to investigate.

I no longer have the power and am just s simple man once again.

I need to ask everyone is they want the info I collected last night or not.


I know who had actions..

As you said, it's unlikely we'll know, so I believe it's safest to assume the worst case scenario - whatever the role was, it's gone now. Relying on anything else will cause more problems than it will solve.


After the demise of RWarehall / P1na (bad luck Brian P1na :/ ) Trent is pretty much the next best thing in my eyes and his report is enough for me.

vote flubbucket

Poor P1na. I miss you dearly, Pineapple.

Trentonlf: You seem to have had the power, or actually had the power? Since you say that you investigated flubbucket, I'm going to assume the latter, and that, therefore, you were the cop last night.

Sage: Well, if you've got information and are allowed to post it, I do not see why you should not do so. Also, you make it sound as if you know what everyone did last. Is that the case?

Yes. Do post it.

Yes I was the cop last night, but I no longer have the power.

Warning: Long Post.

Kind of a shame RWarehall left just before he got off'd. Also a shame P1na steps up, presumably preps or something, and then will get exactly 1 post in-game. I hope you check the dawn of Day 3 before reading everything, P1na!

Anyway, I want to broach three topics of discussion today: A) How many teams are present, B) how many scum are present, and C) Who are the scum?

A) I see no reason to suspect anything other than 2 teams (Clear Sky, Monolith). If there are two NKs tonight, we'll know differently, but I've seen nothing to indicate this. Additionally, neutral survivors don't really fit the flavor (we are a small strike force from the Clear Sky Initiative, and the Night 0 emission corrupted some people), and I think that a neutral survivor would hose town, number-wise, unless there are only 3 scum.


B) At the risk of sounding like Yog's "Follow the Math!", I believe 3 or 4 are the most viable numbers for the scum count. We have 15 players, 3 town have died, and 0 scum have died. I think 3 scum or 4 scum are both viable scenarios right now.

->6 (or more) scum means they've already won. 15 - 6 = 9, 9 - 3 = 6. Town hasn't lost yet, so this is impossible. It would also be basically impossible for town to win; scum would only need 1 town vote on Day 2 to achieve victory (assuming a town is the Day 1 lynch).

->If there are 2 scum, then it it 13 vs 2. One lucky, early lynch, and the sole remaining scum may have to survive 6 days (or more!) alone. Combine that with how power roles shift, and the lone scum doesn't really have a chance to win (not to mention it'd be a waste of a good mechanic (powers shifting)). I reject this scenario as too biased in favor of town.

->If there are 5 scum, then town gets only 2 mis-lynchs (and Day 1 is very likely to be one of those).
Day 2: Say we lynch a townie again. Then 15 - 5 = 10, 10 - 4 = 6 (end of night 2), and we'd be at lynch right or lose for the rest of the game (at least 5 nights!). I'm going to reject this scenario as too much in favor of scum; 5 scum buddies only need 2 town votes to lynch a townie on day 2.

->If there are 4 scum, then if town hits town every day town gets to Lynch Right or Lose starting Day 4. This works for either team.
End of Night 1: 15 - 4 = 11, 11 - 2 = 9, 9 - 4 = 5
End of Night 2: 9 - 2 = 7, 7 - 4 = 3
End of Night 3: 7 - 2 = 5, 5 - 4 = 1. Lynch right or lose.

->If there are 4 scum, then if town hits town every day town gets to Lynch Right or Lose starting Day 5. This works for either team.
End of Night 1: 15 - 3 = 12, 12 - 2 = 10, 10 - 3 = 7
End of Night 2: 10 - 2 = 8, 8 - 3 = 5
End of Night 3: 8 - 2 = 6, 6 - 3 = 3
End of Night 4: 6 - 2 = 4, 4 - 3 = 1. Lynch right or lose.


->If there are 4 scum, what is our situation?
Day 3: 15 - 4 = 11, 11 - 3 (1L, 2NK) = 8, 8 - 4 = 4. We can only afford to lose three more people before we have to be hitting scum. If we mis-lynch on Day 3 and Day 4, scum wins.

-> If there are 3 scum, what is our situation?
Day 3: 15 - 3 = 12, 12 - 3 (1L, 2NK) = 9, 9 - 3 = 6. We can afford to lose 5 people before we have to be hitting scum. If we mis-lynch D3 and D4, we're at Lynch Right or Lose.


C) Nothing Flub or Sage said yesterday does anything to lessen their scumminess in my eyes. Flub continued to do what he's done most of the game: agree with other players while not providing much in the way of new stuff; I think he tried to bus Sage. Sage was scrambling to come up with something, anything, before getting lynched; she tried to divert attention over to Flub as one of her tactics. I'm pretty certain 2 of the scum team have been identified (sage and Flub); now we just need to figure out the rest.

Trent is one of my top suspects for remaining scum. He knows the clock has started, and he just wants more information; he fails to actually provide much of anything himself or even push very much for the information, though. We are into the unknown amount of extra time before the emission, we only have one decent wagon going, but Trent doesn't want to rush anything; now we have no lynch and no flip to analyze. During the count down, I was watching to see who was online yesterday, so I could see who was watching the thread while not posting (and to see if I could get anyone else to join the wagon before time ran out). Sage checked in frequently, which is understandable when it is her neck on the block. By my own admission, I was watching the thread closely. And Trent was online many of the times I looked around. Most of the other players usually appeared to be off-line. I haven't made the time to go back and read all of his posts yet, but two things stand out to me about his posting so far: 1) he poked at me using some misrepresentations early on, and I called him out on it twice, and 2) he basically faded into the background after that, occasionally asking someone a question or jabbing at someone, but not really doing anything (like during the countdown on Day 2).
I'll go ahead and point out now that you could view my suspicion as biased. Be that as it may, I ask that you look over Trent yourself and think about what I've said.

Krypsyn also apparently missed Sage's wagon, so why does Trent rank higher? 1) I have reviewed Kryp's posts, and I have him leaning town, 2) He has indicated he has had some RL issues, so he may have missed some things, 3) My scum list is already filling up. Krypsyn is on my watch list, though.

===================
Some people have posted since I started this.

You missed something: If a player flips town, then their reads can be trusted. If a player flips scum, then their reads should be run through a salt mill before being trusted. Scum know who is town and who is scum, so they could claim either as either.

Which leads us to Trent. He might be trying for town points by fingering (hush, Flub, no dirty thoughts) a scum that is already under heavy suspicion. Alternatively, maybe he was keeping quiet on Day 2 in order to avoid giving away he had a cop power.


Lets see your claim. Who knows? Maybe you can get replaced as a certain scum.


What did you do with it?

You did read the part of me that you quoted, right? When we get a flip.
And just a reminder, a town cop will get a town read on a mafia godfather.

I did read it. After rereading it, I think I misinterpreted "move the read to the relevant pile"; I was imagining different piles than you probably meant.

And I haven't forgotten the possibility of a godfather. For me, none of the cop reads have that possibility so far (I'm town and Trent is claiming to have found a scum), but others didn't get to read my alignment off my PM.

Twilight, did you lose your cop power the same night as you had it, or was it "taken" from you at the start of the next night?

You confound be Bookwyrm. If I did not believe TB in that you are town you would be at the top of my scum list. When the day started yesterday and TB claimed I believed him because I had gotten the power over the night.

You want town to win trust me, flub is scum. If he's not lynch me tomorrow. I assure you he is scum.

As for the power I had, I don't know who has it now as it's up to the void what townie gets it next.

Twilight is no longer in play, he was replaced by QuadrAlien.

Not sure if I feel this is a quick catch and cover on your part or not.

Ooo GGRRR ara RrRraAaA ssrR Ooooo ggRR Ooooo ara RaaA RRrRRrrRAAAa Ooo Gggg ORr RrAA ssrr RRrrrRAAa RraaaAaAA Gggg GgRrr srRR GggGGGrR!!

Vote trentonlf

This stinks of false claim. You're covering for Sage who came close to lynch yesterday. At first I thought it was too early and desperate for this, but rereading Bookwyrm's post (assuming his numbers are correct) that's not it at all, you're getting set for a win.

I'm even more certain now. Sage yesterday tried to wiggle out with "you're assuming everyone has the same role" when she mentioned protecting the heart. Okay, maybe you are a doctor or some such. But today she comes out and again softclaims yet ANOTHER role (tracker maybe? I don't know).