Before I subject you to my Text of Doom: in one of my spot checks last night, someone made a relatively accurate observation on my play for Day 3. I did mostly coast Tuesday while I was working on a coding bug at work. Then I was gone Tuesday night and on through nearly all of Wednesday. I'm now working on catching up. In an effort to not miss anything, I'm going to start back at the beginning of Day 3.
Please forgive me, as things seem to have moved quite far along while I wasn't paying close attention. I'll post my thoughts as I get a chance, instead of trying to save up for a Big Bang. Therefore, some of these comments might already be irrelevant by the time you can read them (depending on what is said later that I haven't read yet).
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bler144: Hijack pointed out at some point yesterday that we never looked at the wagon for Day 1. And we never really did, though I'm still a bit skeptical there's much there. But we probably should look at D1/2 before we go much further.
Obvious questions:
1) Why not NK Wyrm? While he covered himself a bit, and perhaps was a town vanilla bluffing to eat the shot, his use of the "My PM" seemed to me like a slip.
2) Why not NK Dedo? Either he's scum...or he's not but scum think he's the most likely lynch target. Also possible that for whatever reason they just don't think a tracker is dangerous, though that would suggest they're playing the odds or have an untrackable role.
3) Why Flub over either of those? Either they knew he was the role blocker and perceived as dangerous, or it was just a lucky shot and they were hoping to cast FoS on whichever townie investigated him last night.
-I seem to recall someone else sort of bringing up Adalia wagon analysis early on Day 1, but I don't remember who. I don't think Hijack was the first to mention it, though he did point out it was mostly ignored.
-"Why not NK wyrm?" Apparently I either haven't been quiet enough (lurking), I haven't been threatening/important enough to warrant it, or (from Not-Me Point Of View) I'm scum.
-Why not NK dedo? Same reasons as me. Except it would be Not-Dedo POV.
-"Why Flub?" Best guess, he was lurking enough that it didn't seem like town would get much from it. Dedo has some good commentary on this question in Post 635.
dedoporno: So, first things first. Elephant in the room. Myself. Is there any suspicion around my claim and Joe flipping Town after all? Will we go in that direction or will we proceed with other things?
The story rings true, with all the cross-verification between you and Trent. I can't shake the idea that you might be scum with a careful plot, but I'm currently tentatively believing you are town since Trent flipped town and you led in delivering most of the details.
dedoporno: Interesting. If this is true it seemes Flub wasn't the only blocker around. It also makes me think the dart is of scum origins - we are unlikely to have more than one blocker.
bler144: Why would you assume that? Flub was the NK, but we don't have an action priority order.
Post 646: Dedo agrees with Bler about this assumption.
-646: Dedo wants to protect the protector.
-648: So does Lift.
bler144: Possible the game is down to 5-4 or 5-3-1 and for all intents and purposes we're at LyLo.
-5-4 puts us at LyLo if the 4 are the same faction, while 5-3-1 only puts us at LyLo if the 1 is neutral survivor (doesn't care who wins as long as player is alive).
-Third party scum would mean we aren't quite at LyLo, since if mafia kill the 3rd party scum tonight, then they didn't kill a townie, while if they kill a townie, then presumably they aren't in control because of that 3rd party scum and so we get another day. 5-3-1 does mean we need to be lynching the 3 either today or tomorrow, or they might be able to equalize the numbers over night.
Lifthrasil: <Why not to indicate if you were protected last night>
Doesn't this logic also hold true for the bag searching and mind reading? Which information/roles are we willing to risk scum laying hands on? Anyone that can be identified with relative certainty is one less person that could be some other desirable role. Quad covers some of this in 656.
Though if we don't share anything until mass claim, we risk losing whole swathes of info to a lucky NK.
-669: Bler goes into this -> town is probably best served by all or nothing for info sharing.
-669: Bler advocates lynching Lift. He did his vote/unvote for Lift in previous posts.
-673: Dedo pushes for reveals on unclaimed investigations.
-678: Leonard apparently got nothing when searching Lift's posts
bler144: We can also observe that there was only one NK again last night. Which would seem to mean one of three things:
a) There is only one scum team
b) There are 2 scum teams but Flub just happened to hit an NK action each night. That would make Leon and Hijack both killers. Is that likely? No, and barely plausible imo but technically possible.
c) the setup was 9v3v1 and the 1 has some non-SK win condition or is laying low til the end. Probably not productive to speculate further until there's more info.
d) I'm probably missing something.
-Flub might have blocked one NK, while the protective role blocked another kill. There may be more ways of stopping a kill out there, as well. Flub managing to block kills on both nights seems to be the most unlikely of the scenarios you proposed; he'd have to be down right amazing at either luck or at predicting who would make a kill, since he almost certainly didn't have access to non-public investigation information. No offense Flub, maybe you were that lucky, but if you could predict the kills I'd think you'd save yourself.
-683: Leonard seems pretty sure Flub did both of the claimed role blocks.
-Note: It was around here that I stopped watching the thread on Tuesday. There might be a few posts overlap, but most everything from this point on is going to be new to me.
-684: Lift declares suspicion of Bler, votes. I tend to agree with Bler, in that I think town has several power roles left; I think Lift overreacted in thinking Bler said multiple town roles visited Bler. If Bler is town, then scum are unlikely to spend more than one investigation on him (and they'll use whichever is most likely to tell them what they want to know). Looks like Bler basically says this in 686.
Leonard03: Interesting, let's see if I get what you're saying. Basically if you are visited by a scum, then it means you are town. Since you were visited by so many people they can't all have been town, therefore some of them were scum, therefore you are town. That about right?
Wait, what? I...I don't see how you came to that conclusion at all. I really don't see how Bler excludes all of his visits being town; he excludes that all of his visits were scum. He specifically says that at least 1 visit (or more), possibly all 3, were made by townies.
-689: Leonard is pinging my scum-dar pretty seriously at this point.
-690: Bler makes some decent points. However, scum might try to defend a lynch of a townie, precisely so they can later say "I was against killing that townie"; no credit for this defense.
bler144: Though he will have to decide for himself, for now I would recommend he just share his target at most, assuming dedo's target was not Flub. Revealing whether or not that person had a night action I'd say for now is only critical if their target was Flub or if there was something outwardly suspicious observed.
I think Dedo already dropped that his target went somewhere, and therefore has some kind of night action.
-696: JMich is very concerned about Lift and Dedo, votes Lift. I was wondering if I was going to be in the minority for thinking Bler is much more convincing than Lift has been; I guess not.
-698: Leonard asking if protector should out himself.
-699: Bler points out that protector doesn't necessarily need to claim; second protected could do it.
-700: Leonard points suspicion at Dedo.
Note: Maybe Dedo and Lift are a scum team. Possible, but I tend to disagree right now.
-701: Lift makes an interesting observation about Bler calling Lift a townie. On further review though, I don't think this holds up. While he talked about Lift being unable to be protected again as a townie, Bler didn't go into the case where if Lift is scum then Lift needs to be lynched regardless. We've already been through Bler being unfamiliar with whether a doctor can only protect someone once.
Note to self: I've gotten to 701. I need to get some more work done before I come back to this.