It seems that you're using an outdated browser. Some things may not work as they should (or don't work at all).
We suggest you upgrade newer and better browser like: Chrome, Firefox, Internet Explorer or Opera

×
avatar
Lifthrasil: But well, you saw your mistake and admitted it ... and I get the feeling a scum would have hounded me more for this cherry picking. I've given you enough handles for a counter vote, but you decide not to grab on to them. That again makes me believe, that you actually care about avoiding a mislynch ... which makes you townier again. So I can't vote on you in good concience any more:

unvote bler144
This is all very charitable and all, but you voted for me originally at a point where no lynch wasn't on the table, so a gambit to run a wagon on me was a good play.

Now that it's moving towards no-lynch, there was no need for you to continue that gambit. So you, very graciously no less, step back down. You also snuggle up to JMich on how you wouldn't normally agree with No Lynch, but just maybe this time it's a grand idea.
Damn! Usually such a suggestion like a no-lynch would make me immediately vote JMich, but unfortunately today it actually might be a towny suggestion.
Maybe I'm being uncharitable, but that strikes me as a complete put-on. I like the "Damn!" in particular.

No lynch is still a very good deal for scum. There's no getting around that. The only question is whether town can increase its odds by picking a lynch target that is highly likely to flip. With the deadline not moving, and now a chunk more info on the table that I think helps scum more than town, I'm going to

Vote Lift
avatar
bler144: I am a cop, yes. Sir Cloudsely Shovel, Human Knight to be precise. But I will say that what I do know was more useful in the context of verifying a claim. I do not know enough to solve the puzzle, however. If QA or CSP want to share what I might know about them, I won't stop them.
So, you claim cop. Why not go a step further and reveal whom you investigated and what were the results? If your claim is true, you already did what I wanted to avoid: present our cop as a target to scum. So the damage is done and you might as well share everything you found out. Are there some you 'cleared' as town (which then of course hinges on you being town and not 'naive' yourself etc.) Did you find some scum already?

What else can we do with the remaining time? I, unfortunately, have nothing else to share about the night, since nothing (apart from the goblin fighting) happened to me. So if someone visited me today, he stayed hidden. But since most night actions seem to leave something noticeable, I rather suspect that no one came visiting me.
avatar
Lifthrasil: So, you claim cop. Why not go a step further and reveal whom you investigated and what were the results? If your claim is true, you already did what I wanted to avoid: present our cop as a target to scum. So the damage is done and you might as well share everything you found out. Are there some you 'cleared' as town (which then of course hinges on you being town and not 'naive' yourself etc.) Did you find some scum already?
Perhaps one or both of them have roles of their own. Perhaps they don't. The data on the table suggests there are probably 3 cops on the table. Say I'm vanilla or role cop and claim that neither have roles then scum can presumably do math and figure out who else does. If I claim one is vanilla and the other isn't, and the vanilla happens to be scum, then voila, another target.

Any permutation here is bad. Maybe I'm a stats cop and really just know jack shit.

Again, I'm not inclined to make it clear how dangerous I am in the future.
Again, short of a full claim, anything I could say now about them hurts town more than it helps.

At the very least, if I had something that 'proved' scumminess on either of them right now I would have absolutely shared it sooner.

TLDR: I cannot prove either is town at this point in time. Dedo outing me has made me a target yes, but better to WIFOM how big a target I should be is at this point the safer play. Me full claiming plus a no lynch is a recipe for disaster.

If I'm NKed tonight, does town lose something? I think I'll leave that for scum to guess.
Before I subject you to my Text of Doom: in one of my spot checks last night, someone made a relatively accurate observation on my play for Day 3. I did mostly coast Tuesday while I was working on a coding bug at work. Then I was gone Tuesday night and on through nearly all of Wednesday. I'm now working on catching up. In an effort to not miss anything, I'm going to start back at the beginning of Day 3.

Please forgive me, as things seem to have moved quite far along while I wasn't paying close attention. I'll post my thoughts as I get a chance, instead of trying to save up for a Big Bang. Therefore, some of these comments might already be irrelevant by the time you can read them (depending on what is said later that I haven't read yet).

-----

avatar
bler144: Hijack pointed out at some point yesterday that we never looked at the wagon for Day 1. And we never really did, though I'm still a bit skeptical there's much there. But we probably should look at D1/2 before we go much further.

Obvious questions:
1) Why not NK Wyrm? While he covered himself a bit, and perhaps was a town vanilla bluffing to eat the shot, his use of the "My PM" seemed to me like a slip.
2) Why not NK Dedo? Either he's scum...or he's not but scum think he's the most likely lynch target. Also possible that for whatever reason they just don't think a tracker is dangerous, though that would suggest they're playing the odds or have an untrackable role.
3) Why Flub over either of those? Either they knew he was the role blocker and perceived as dangerous, or it was just a lucky shot and they were hoping to cast FoS on whichever townie investigated him last night.
-I seem to recall someone else sort of bringing up Adalia wagon analysis early on Day 1, but I don't remember who. I don't think Hijack was the first to mention it, though he did point out it was mostly ignored.
-"Why not NK wyrm?" Apparently I either haven't been quiet enough (lurking), I haven't been threatening/important enough to warrant it, or (from Not-Me Point Of View) I'm scum.
-Why not NK dedo? Same reasons as me. Except it would be Not-Dedo POV.
-"Why Flub?" Best guess, he was lurking enough that it didn't seem like town would get much from it. Dedo has some good commentary on this question in Post 635.

avatar
dedoporno: So, first things first. Elephant in the room. Myself. Is there any suspicion around my claim and Joe flipping Town after all? Will we go in that direction or will we proceed with other things?
The story rings true, with all the cross-verification between you and Trent. I can't shake the idea that you might be scum with a careful plot, but I'm currently tentatively believing you are town since Trent flipped town and you led in delivering most of the details.

avatar
dedoporno: Interesting. If this is true it seemes Flub wasn't the only blocker around. It also makes me think the dart is of scum origins - we are unlikely to have more than one blocker.
avatar
bler144: Why would you assume that? Flub was the NK, but we don't have an action priority order.
Post 646: Dedo agrees with Bler about this assumption.

-646: Dedo wants to protect the protector.
-648: So does Lift.

avatar
bler144: Possible the game is down to 5-4 or 5-3-1 and for all intents and purposes we're at LyLo.
-5-4 puts us at LyLo if the 4 are the same faction, while 5-3-1 only puts us at LyLo if the 1 is neutral survivor (doesn't care who wins as long as player is alive).
-Third party scum would mean we aren't quite at LyLo, since if mafia kill the 3rd party scum tonight, then they didn't kill a townie, while if they kill a townie, then presumably they aren't in control because of that 3rd party scum and so we get another day. 5-3-1 does mean we need to be lynching the 3 either today or tomorrow, or they might be able to equalize the numbers over night.

avatar
Lifthrasil: <Why not to indicate if you were protected last night>
Doesn't this logic also hold true for the bag searching and mind reading? Which information/roles are we willing to risk scum laying hands on? Anyone that can be identified with relative certainty is one less person that could be some other desirable role. Quad covers some of this in 656.

Though if we don't share anything until mass claim, we risk losing whole swathes of info to a lucky NK.
-669: Bler goes into this -> town is probably best served by all or nothing for info sharing.

-669: Bler advocates lynching Lift. He did his vote/unvote for Lift in previous posts.

-673: Dedo pushes for reveals on unclaimed investigations.

-678: Leonard apparently got nothing when searching Lift's posts

avatar
bler144: We can also observe that there was only one NK again last night. Which would seem to mean one of three things:
a) There is only one scum team
b) There are 2 scum teams but Flub just happened to hit an NK action each night. That would make Leon and Hijack both killers. Is that likely? No, and barely plausible imo but technically possible.
c) the setup was 9v3v1 and the 1 has some non-SK win condition or is laying low til the end. Probably not productive to speculate further until there's more info.
d) I'm probably missing something.
-Flub might have blocked one NK, while the protective role blocked another kill. There may be more ways of stopping a kill out there, as well. Flub managing to block kills on both nights seems to be the most unlikely of the scenarios you proposed; he'd have to be down right amazing at either luck or at predicting who would make a kill, since he almost certainly didn't have access to non-public investigation information. No offense Flub, maybe you were that lucky, but if you could predict the kills I'd think you'd save yourself.

-683: Leonard seems pretty sure Flub did both of the claimed role blocks.

-Note: It was around here that I stopped watching the thread on Tuesday. There might be a few posts overlap, but most everything from this point on is going to be new to me.

-684: Lift declares suspicion of Bler, votes. I tend to agree with Bler, in that I think town has several power roles left; I think Lift overreacted in thinking Bler said multiple town roles visited Bler. If Bler is town, then scum are unlikely to spend more than one investigation on him (and they'll use whichever is most likely to tell them what they want to know). Looks like Bler basically says this in 686.

avatar
Leonard03: Interesting, let's see if I get what you're saying. Basically if you are visited by a scum, then it means you are town. Since you were visited by so many people they can't all have been town, therefore some of them were scum, therefore you are town. That about right?
Wait, what? I...I don't see how you came to that conclusion at all. I really don't see how Bler excludes all of his visits being town; he excludes that all of his visits were scum. He specifically says that at least 1 visit (or more), possibly all 3, were made by townies.

-689: Leonard is pinging my scum-dar pretty seriously at this point.

-690: Bler makes some decent points. However, scum might try to defend a lynch of a townie, precisely so they can later say "I was against killing that townie"; no credit for this defense.

avatar
bler144: Though he will have to decide for himself, for now I would recommend he just share his target at most, assuming dedo's target was not Flub. Revealing whether or not that person had a night action I'd say for now is only critical if their target was Flub or if there was something outwardly suspicious observed.
I think Dedo already dropped that his target went somewhere, and therefore has some kind of night action.

-696: JMich is very concerned about Lift and Dedo, votes Lift. I was wondering if I was going to be in the minority for thinking Bler is much more convincing than Lift has been; I guess not.

-698: Leonard asking if protector should out himself.
-699: Bler points out that protector doesn't necessarily need to claim; second protected could do it.
-700: Leonard points suspicion at Dedo.

Note: Maybe Dedo and Lift are a scum team. Possible, but I tend to disagree right now.

-701: Lift makes an interesting observation about Bler calling Lift a townie. On further review though, I don't think this holds up. While he talked about Lift being unable to be protected again as a townie, Bler didn't go into the case where if Lift is scum then Lift needs to be lynched regardless. We've already been through Bler being unfamiliar with whether a doctor can only protect someone once.

Note to self: I've gotten to 701. I need to get some more work done before I come back to this.
Hold it a sec Lifthrasil, bler was not the one to bring the cop (himself) to light, it was dedo. He was the one who claimed tracking bler to CSPVG. You cannot blame bler for this, in fact is is odd that you do I would have thought it was obvious that it was dedo.
avatar
dedoporno: @HijacK, do you have a description of your brain read? So far we have a gentle friendly read and a mind f*ck (ba-dum-tsss!). Is yours consistent with these in any way?
The presence in my mind was painful, or so I assume because my flavor indicates I was in pain.

avatar
dedoporno: @Everyone, the calmness with the imminent deadline is a bit disturbing. Even with no lynch there is a fair possibility of information lost which can't be in any way good for us. What is the point of prolonging the game waiting for more investigations if we don't work with them?
I am not so sure about this whole no lynch thing today. Day 2 could have been better, but tonight there's the risk of losing yet another investigative role if we proceed with no lynch. Alternatively we could lose 2 investigative roles if Lift happens to be one of them, but for some reason I highly doubt that.

avatar
dedoporno: Last night (N2) bler visited CSPVG. CSPVG already reported having his pack searched, so we now know that bler is the person who rummages people's bags (but doesn't steal stuff from them). Which in turn tells us that he visited QuadrAlien on N1 (based on QAs report).

@bler, the ball is in your court now :)
Interesting find. It seems this game makes excessive use of flavor, which in spite of what many may say I do actually think it's a better setup since it's no longer just a numbers game.
avatar
HijacK: The presence in my mind was painful, or so I assume because my flavor indicates I was in pain.
From that I would find it safe to conclude we likely had the same visitor. For whatever that's worth.
avatar
Leonard03: Interesting, let's see if I get what you're saying. Basically if you are visited by a scum, then it means you are town. Since you were visited by so many people they can't all have been town, therefore some of them were scum, therefore you are town. That about right?
avatar
Bookwyrm627: Wait, what? I...I don't see how you came to that conclusion at all. I really don't see how Bler excludes all of his visits being town; he excludes that all of his visits were scum. He specifically says that at least 1 visit (or more), possibly all 3, were made by townies.
I misunderstood his reason for this when he first posted it. I did not understand why you would want to prove that at least one visit was from town. Now I understand it was because lift was accusing him of knowing that all the visits were town by being scum. So bler was pointing out how you wouldn't have to be scum to know that.

avatar
yogsloth: “Where are we going again? I’m confused,” added Leonard03 helpfully helping nobody.
I have been doing a lot of drawing lately, which apparently uses the right side of the brain. The left side is the one used for logic and reasoning. That's my excuse :D

avatar
dedoporno: I have no idea. Town having a bunch of power roles usually balances equally powerful mafiosos (Godfather, JOAT, Blocker, Strongman, you-name-it). It may seem like too much but it may not be once you know the whole setup. Do you feel comfortable assuming the best-case scenario rather than the worst?
Yes, because if scum do have those kind of roles I think we are lost anyway.

avatar
dedoporno: When did we came to this conclusion? I'm pretty sure this was just an assumption and as it has been said numerous times - assumptions are a dangerous thing in this game. Speaking of which, why do you assume the bag thief is an alignment cop? The flavour doesn't suggest this. It's more likely that's a flavour cop or something like this. Far more likely for the bag searcher or the brain reader to be an alignment cop.
I have only heard of role cops and alignment cops, so I would think it was one of them.
And haven't I already proved I have no skills at re-reading? Rrrrgh...
JMich pointed out it was likely over in post 483, also 492.
Also, he he he, this post seems really ironic.
Something else I noticed, at the beginning of this post, you seem to believe all claims are true now, or am I wrong there?
And then dedo claims and the talk centers on him and trentonlf only. I guess saying we came to the conclusion was a little in accurate, but at least it wasn't just me that thought it.

avatar
dedoporno: I asked JMich this, so I'm going to ask you as well. I respect the fact that you are suspicious of me, but please share why. Stating suspicions without actual arguments backing them up is less than perfect.
It was mainly you (and partly lift) that got trentonlf lynched. I do not find the arguments you have been making very good. It also does not really feel like you are looking for scum, besides me I don't know who you suspect. You also seem to be very close to lifthrasil, who I find suspicious. For his part in trentonlf's death, and for his hounding of bler.
avatar
Leonard03: It was mainly you (and partly lift) that got trentonlf lynched. I do not find the arguments you have been making very good. It also does not really feel like you are looking for scum, besides me I don't know who you suspect. You also seem to be very close to lifthrasil, who I find suspicious. For his part in trentonlf's death, and for his hounding of bler.
I can't tell you whether or not you should find dedo's arguments very good (though on the whole I have only minor quibbles with him), but I will say that lift/dedo being close doesn't have to be them buddying up to each other. I've tended to read it as Lift finding dedo's arguments convenient for his own purposes.

Was dedo calling (in bold) for anyone protected to clam up a gambit to cover for Lift? Maybe, but also quite viably a pro-town opinion, whether or not I agree it's the best play I see the argument. The fact that Lift then follows up is arguably too obvious if they're on the same team, though WIFOM of course.

And Dedo has, at least to a moderate extent, also backed my own play today, at least until he outed me. ;)

I'm not saying that action buys him "townie points" just that I think it's risky to assume he's teaming with either "side" if one assumes Lift and I are indeed on opposite sides.
...Sorry, I was entirely distracted by watching the GOG stream and discovering that there were, in fact, groups of adventurers less competent than ourselves. :D

...Actually, that "Damn!" is interesting to me as well, though it may be the fact that my breadcrumbing senses have now developed in such a way that they have taken on sentience of their own and I am now quite, quite mad. :P

Nothing currently to say about Bler's search of me, though I might have a bit to add after CSPVG has a chance to answer.

Leonard: Well, now you know of one more: Flavour Cop gives some information on that character, while there's also the Name Cop which gives the player's character name. They're not quite as powerful, admittedly, though I imagine when in use their flavour would be at least somewhat suited to them.
avatar
QuadrAlien: ... there's also the Name Cop which gives the player's character name. They're not quite as powerful, admittedly, though I imagine when in use their flavour would be at least somewhat suited to them.
Could be useful if scum happy to be named ...damn, I had a joke for this.

Anyway, it occurs to me there's one thing I can tell you that doesn't reveal anything about QA/CSP/the field. Why did I choose my actions?

On D1 I was inclined to use my night action on someone entirely different, but Adalia's finger-pointing made my primary targets too hot to risk if there was a watcher. But let's just say the game would have been verrrry different had Adalia not thrown mud around. Which I'll come back to in post-game comments.

And keep in mind at this point I wouldn't have known there were so many roles in play, so risking outing myself to a watcher seemed a significant one. Trying to pluck someone at random just because they were on/off Adalia's wagon was too low-value.

So I opted for CSP's wagon, which at least at its prime was myself, flub, and QA, akin to the value of looking at JMich's D1 wagon last game. Flub was also too risky to visit and I tended to think he was town anyway (which I believe a review of my D1 comments will support), and had CSP been visited N1 several people might have intuited it was me as the most ardent voice on his wagon. My assumption being that the way the D1 vote went, either QA was scum, or CSP probably was.

Without revealing what type of cop I am, let's just say my hope was that I'd get something on QA that would also tell me something about CSP. Considering I visited CSP N2, one might perhaps conclude from that it was at least not definitive. I briefly toyed with investigating Leonard, but that was too low-value a play and wrote it off.

So the two choices were Lift (gut), or play out the theory that 1 of CSP or QA were probably scum. I went with the latter, because again, if I got lucky it might tell me something about two people.
avatar
dedoporno: I would add a bit of piggy-backing here and there of which I'm not a fan.
What's piggy-backing? I'm assuming it's not the same stuff you do with girls to get them close to you.

@CSPVG: Classes have started and girls need my attention as well. ;D
avatar
Leonard03: It was mainly you (and partly lift) that got trentonlf lynched. I do not find the arguments you have been making very good. It also does not really feel like you are looking for scum, besides me I don't know who you suspect. You also seem to be very close to lifthrasil, who I find suspicious. For his part in trentonlf's death, and for his hounding of bler.
Uhm, really? Oh my... Uhm... Do you find your arguments very good? Do you feel you are looking for scum? If you answer with yes to any of these questions I will seriously reconsider what am I doing with my life.

Show me where I got Trent lynched by providing untrue information. Show where you didn't join that wagon. Here? On, no, sorry. That is where you say that you are convinced we should lynch him.

You not knowing who I suspect besides you means I'm not looking for scum? Nice. I love that argument.


avatar
bler144: Anyway, it occurs to me there's one thing I can tell you that doesn't reveal anything about QA/CSP/the field. Why did I choose my actions?
Ah, nice! I was about to ask that. Thanks for being pro-active :)

avatar
HijacK: What's piggy-backing?
Repeating the thoughts / comments of others as your own mostly.


Damn, that Lazarus plugin is so strong! I actually close the tab by accident and didn't lose anything!
To be fair, I should probably amend "would have been verrrry different" to "could have been verrrry different." It definitely changed my plan, but it's possible it could have changed later.
avatar
dedoporno: Uhm, really? Oh my... Uhm... Do you find your arguments very good? Do you feel you are looking for scum? If you answer with yes to any of these questions I will seriously reconsider what am I doing with my life.
Yes, my arguments are brilliant.
I would most definitely say I'm looking for scum.
With a high int like that I would suggest wizardry ;)

avatar
dedoporno: Show me where I got Trent lynched by providing untrue information. Show where you didn't join that wagon. Here? On, no, sorry. That is where you say that you are convinced we should lynch him.
I never said untrue information, I said information. You could be a townie who simply lost out in the circumstances. Whether or not I was on the wagon doesn't really make a difference. With the information we had I think it was the best thing to do. The point is, it was your and lift's info that resulted in the lynch. Without that trentonlf was certainly not on my scum radar.

avatar
dedoporno: You not knowing who I suspect besides you means I'm not looking for scum? Nice. I love that argument.
Who are your scum picks?
Maybe it's not the best argument, but I can't be brilliant all the time.

avatar
dedoporno: I would add a bit of piggy-backing here and there of which I'm not a fan.
avatar
HijacK: What's piggy-backing? I'm assuming it's not the same stuff you do with girls to get them close to you.

@CSPVG: Classes have started and girls need my attention as well. ;D
Whoever scanned your brain just got "girls"

avatar
dedoporno: Ah, nice! I was about to ask that. Thanks for being pro-active :)
Oy! Is that a shot at me?

avatar
QuadrAlien: Leonard: Well, now you know of one more: Flavour Cop gives some information on that character, while there's also the Name Cop which gives the player's character name. They're not quite as powerful, admittedly, though I imagine when in use their flavour would be at least somewhat suited to them.
So they could be one of those kinds, interesting. Someone noted that not all searches are the same, one brain scan hurt, the other didn't, one bag search stole stuff, the other didn't. (Just in case I am accused of piggy-backing, this was someone else's idea). Could we possibly have four different types of cops?