And before anyone says it's a slip, by "rather than take ourselves to the brink" I meant "rather than risk taking ourselves to the brink."

I absolutely did not know Trent would flip town (or even non-scum), I just thought we were taking too big a strategic risk. And yes, I get that I'm in the minority, but my read on risk was absolutely correct.

That's not just 20-20 hindsight. Being wrong on Trent means we're down to our last chance, maybe 2 if we're lucky, from here til the end of the game, and yet we're still reduced to working on hunches.

Situational example, but it happened before:

The doctor protects someone whom he is fairly certain is town. Doctor protects that someone on more than 1 night, maybe not consecutive. That someone turns out to be scum.

Now I'm not advocating this handicap is an advantage, but it definitely forces the doctor to thoroughly analyze others and decide whether or not to go protecting at night. This and he can't protect any given scum on more than one night, so the margin of error is smaller.

I am not getting scummy vibes from anyone right now.
@dedo it might be good if you share what you got last night, since you may not last a long time.

No point in sharing just the person's name since we'll have to talk about what happened anyway right away. Otherwise we potentially risk giving them time to come up with plausible explanations if they are scum. So we either do this now and work on it or leave it for later today.

@Leonard, I will live at least by Dusk Today and my info will most likely be brought up before the day ends. I just wanted to wait for more people to share nightly experiences since these may help in the process.

The meditation would be flavor but I doubt I'll see them doing it since I don't see what actions have been taken, just who visited who. I'm usually served just flavor but when the read isn't obvious enough I can ask yog for flavor-less result (i.e. Player X visited player Y).

@bler, you are correct about RW, I totally forgot about his role, so we are 2 nightly experiences short:

1 brain read and 1 pack with stolen stuff. I wonder what happened to those.

I don't like this. I really don't. I'm under the impression that Lift plays quite differently from last games. He is usually the one that plays so townish, that he is chosen for a night kill because there won't be any chance for attempting a lynch on him, yet in this game he does leave quite a few openings for a wagon to form.
Add to it the alliance he seems to have with dedo, and their almost identical views, and I am really concerned.

So please, someone other than those two, do convince me that Lift is not scum. In the meantime, vote Lift (will happily go for dedo as well, if you think that wagon is more viable).

Alliance? And where exactly did you get that idea from?

You provided some reasoning for your vote on Lift, but you say you're just as happy voting for myself as well. I didn't see any reasoning for that (you didn't vote for me, yes, but some argumentation would be appreciated anyway). You usually have this available and it's based on pretty good logic wrapped around whatever facts we have at hand.

Fair enough.

I would guess it is mostly from the way your information together brought us to lynch trentonlf.

If what lifthrasil claimed about being visited by a protector is true, then someone here knows he is telling the truth. Considering we basically have to get this lynch, do you all think it would be good if they claimed?

I don't think we need to jump all the way to protector claiming himself. In theory it should suffice to know if anyone else was visited N2 with the sort of protection lift describes having observed N1.

If Lift is scum can that be bluffed by another scum? Sure, but there's a limited number of people who could still pull that off I think.

I have another unrelated point to make on the "alliance" question but need to do a bit of work first.

Good point, and dedo was the one who wanted anyone who was protected not claim it. Interesting.

I don't know if protecting me from an (unjustified) lynch is worth sacrificing a protector role. But yes, at least one of you knows that I told the truth about night 1.



Which ones would that be. Apart from me being still alive? ... Of course, you have a point there. Me being alive on Day 3 is unusual. So I can see where the thought 'Lifthrasil wasn't killed by scum, so he must be scum himself' comes from. But I would expect much better arguments from an experienced player like yourself.

Apart from you the only one calling me scummy so far was bler, who, among other (admittedly better worded) reasons, said: Just an unfortunate wording? Or a freudian slip, because bler knows I'm not scum and is actually considering which townie can be lynched?

Neither - it was a hypothesis. And you left out the rather important context of the larger argument - I made the point that if you were scum we should lynch you, and if we were down to random voting we should lynch you anyway. You're just cherry picking out the latter part and spinning it.

Interestingly, after linking JMich's post and Leonard's, you just pull a quote from mine with no link. Since I don't have adalia's script installed at work I can't even readily go back and find which post you're quoting. And I do talk a lot.

Admittedly, IIRC it was not a good argument on my part since it contained assumptions that were pointed out as unlikely based on the range of typical mechanics. If there is a town doctor (admittedly I'm still somewhat skeptical on that), we'd have no reason to think you couldn't be protected again. Mea culpa - I was wrong there.

So now it would be amended to, if you're scum we should lynch you, but I'm not sure how we would know, and now I'm not sure what our play is if we don't start building some certainty. But nonetheless, you are cherry-picking your quotes there, seemingly just to advance your own argument, not to build understanding.

If I had to guess, I would still pick you first. But that's largely just hunch and not enough for a wagon.

I do, however, share dedo's and your concerns that JMich is making an "alliance" claim without really putting a lot on the table to support it. While his inscrutability is an advantage early on, at this point in the game it's nearly impossible for town to get a read on him. I'm not sure that's helpful as we try and gauge who is reliable and who isn't. Leonard seems more involved than usual for him; Wyrm less. .JMich abides

Hijack has provided the best counter-argument against a claim of being protected on N2. That said, I still think at this point numbers and info matter more than anything. It may or may not be technically to LyLo, but functionally I think it is.

Doctor, if one exists, might save us, but it's not a high percentage play to rely on.

It grew colder and colder. The party’s flickering torches (and the Grand Wizard’s shining staff) provided feeble light, but it sufficed.

CSPVG trotted along beside the wizard. “Lotsa spiderwebs around,” he commented.

The wizard stayed silent.

“Like, lotsa lotsa spiderwebs.”

The wizard… stayed silent.

“A whooooooole bunch of spiderwebs. Really big ones. We keep having to cut through them.” He beamed up at yogsloth, who eyed him edgewise. “There’s gonna be a big spider, isn’t there? Like, a really really big spider, isn’t there?”

The wizard came to a stop. He glared at CSPVG, and then at each member of the party in turn.

“Hold yourselves silent. Close your eyes and listen… with your ears and with your hearts,” he told them.

They did as he said… and one by one, they heard… they felt… a distant sound and movement… something enormous and ancient, crawling, hideous… and terribly, terribly hungry.

As they opened their eyes, the wizard whispered to them, “Hurry yourselves. Make your choice.” He glanced down the ancient tunnel, towards the creeping horror they now knew awaited them. “We haven’t much time.”


_____

OFFICIAL “WHY DOES IT HAVE TO BE SPIDERS” VOTE COUNT

bler144 – 1 (Lifthrasil)
Lifthrasil – 1 (JMich)



Not voting – HijacK, CSPVG, Bookwyrm627, Leonard03, QuadrAlien, dedoporno, bler144

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Closest to lynch is those two at L-4

You now have a deadline – Approximately 4 PM PST (GMT-7) Friday August 21
_____

WIFOM. This excuse could be used for every bold scum play.

WIFOM potentially explains the attention, though that assumes I'm that kind of daredevil. Which I'm very much not as evidenced by me melting downt just trying to bluff as town in the last game. RL fell apart again yesterday, but I'm holding together here because everything I've said is true to the best of my knowledge.

I will say I'm getting tired of putting in the effort, but I haven't melted down.

In any case, it doesn't explain why I'd risk town actually recognizing the logic inherent in playing the no lynch. Unless your WIFOM counter is that I'd know of course town wouldn't actually make the safer play.

But one doesn't even need a majority no-lynch votes, just enough votes to block the lynch and run the clock. That would be an unwise tactical move for scum to bluff. If it works you just shot your team in the foot for marginal personal benefit.

Sigh. Seems a bit fast, but at the same time, I don't really know that we're making any meaningful progress. We have 3 votes more or less allocated, but by and large they all boil down to hunch primarily.

Tactically going on hunch is a weak play, but it may be where we end up nonetheless. Personally i'm not sure how we proceed from here.

Thoughts?