Ah, sorry, neither you nor Joe got the answer so far.
I asked for help - I want to know if 4/13 chance is greater than a 9/13 chance of getting a 1/3 chance with the other 4/13 giving us a 1/4 chance, but I don't know how I'd calculate it.
oh yeah I just realised we're no longer dealing with 4L 9F are we? d'oh.
so is 3/10 chance greater than a 7/10 chance of getting a 1/3 chance, and 3/10 chance getting a 1/5 chance?
hmmm... I guess the question I'm asking it "Is it mathematically more probable for L to be the first card in the pack, or the second?" To which the answer is "there is a 3/10 chance that any position holds an L card." So I'd expect it to be the same...
So maybe there is no strategy to adopt? You could wait for a few Fs to go by, but there's no guarantee that will work in your favour...
hmm... tricky tricky.
Or even if he didn't lied he could frame SPF and then we'd have 8 F and 2 L at most left while standing at 2-1.
hmmm.... I don't know what to make of Blotunga suddenly fearing ZFR and naming himself as the only logical candidate for next chancellor.
But I also don't really like the way SirP started off all 'I don't mind if I get skipped, but who's a safe person to nominate in case you all end up voting yes on me?' and ended up as "I'll vote ZFR because I don't trust him."
I might change my vote. But I'm also interested to see what would happen...
this is trickier than the other Mr Z Gold's stupid puzzle.