So what can we learn from Dessimu's lynch?
Disclaimer: To keep this from getting too messy, I'm dealing with a single scum team and ignoring third parties. If there are multiple scum teams, almost anyone could be on an opposing team. As well, anyone could be a third party. I also find it unlikely that both babark and Dessimu are scum.

If Dessimu is scum, Tammy is nearly lock town. Brasas is likely town. The remaining votes gain some town points. Lift looks scummy - voted on babark when Dessimu was gaining traction. I'm not sure we learn much about Quad and Ixam. Yogs vote on babark could be seen as desperate scum (not sure I buy it - would be a bit of a shift for yogs).

If Dessimu is town, a lot depends on babark. If babark is scum - yogs is nearly lock town, brasas looks suspicious (avoided barbark and voted Dessimu when babark at 6 votes). Tammy is suspect as well. Still don't think we learn much about Quad or Ixam.

If both Dessimu and babark are town. I'm not sure we have enough data yet to draw many conclusions.

So my question to myself is what do I think about Dessimu? Do I vote for him or go elsewhere? Dessimu's reasons for not voting him are not terribly convincing. Perhaps he is scum and doesn't have time to play. Dessimu has a better scum game than this, scum Dessimu will put up a fight (I should know, after voting him, scum Dessi got me lynched while I slept). My impression is Dessi's scum game is stronger than his town game. If he is scum, his lackluster defense actually makes me think he is town.

Which leads me to the conclusion that both babark and Dessi are town. If that's the case, scum could easily be moving back and forth between either wagon. I can see several people on both wagons who could fit this bill. I like bler, brasas, and tammy, I could probably see a case for everyone else, some more than others.

I have gone around and around on this next part. My greatest suspicion started with RWarehall. His assertion that Tammy has to be the SK makes no sense to me. Even if I buy his argument that sushi's death must be a SK, I don't buy Tammy killing one of the MU players and putting a potential target on her head. I think she is smarter than that. Next I thought it strange that RWarehall indicated he fell 'trap' to Bookwyrn. I thought I was on to something, until I started looking at it...I can see why town!RWarehall might think this. Bookwyrm made the initial observation (though he never took a stand on it - I believe that was RWarehall's point). I'm not sure what Bookwyrm has been doing most of the game and his 'oh poor babark' remark (1088), felt hollow. While Bookwyrm is off the table for today, his vote on RWarehall makes me leary of my own suspicion on RWarehall. I need to shelf both of these for another day. I do think it is likely that one of them is scum.

I don't support the no-lynch and actually like Liftrasil's vote. Yogs is being given too much slack for doing almost nothing. If he is scum great. If he is neutral, not a big loss. I can't see that he has down much as town.

Vote yogsloth

How do I even post without breaking the rules?

Here -

Unvote babark

Vote no-lynch

It's the disaster you all seem to crave so much.

"In search of" or "Isolate". What it means is when you go back through the thread and search/read one specific player's post only.

-----------------

I just don't understand how any of the regular GoG players can think that was a DayVig.

Now I see a theory that it was Yogs. The same Yogs who insists there is no way as SK he'd be so impolite as to kill one of the players he just invited to the game. But you are claiming that if he had a DayVig, this would be okay then. It just doesn't make sense. On what basis would Yogs be using this power so early? And why does it suddenly become okay to kill a mostly lurker very early in day 1 if you are town with a DayVig?

Here's the question you should be asking....
What kind of roles might have a day kill power like that and what kind of role is going to take a very early random shot that early in the game with so little information?

First, let's talk about limited shot vs. unlimited shot.
Why, if one's shots were limited (or if using it in the day were limited) would one use a DayVig that early in the game? The answer is "Hell No!" I'd wait until I had something more conclusive. Think about it. Pretend you are given a Vig role. Let's imagine you have a 2-shot DayVig power. Do you use one that early?

But maybe you saw Sushi do something really scummy? If so, would you use your limited shot power or would you bring it up and get her lynched? C'mon people. Wake the heck up!

It should be pretty clear, there is no good reason for a Town player with a limited shot DayVig power to kill Sushi.

-------

So what about "unlimited" shot? Again, I will repeat...what can a town Vig see that would warrant the use of a Day Vig very early in the day like that, which isn't also convincing enough to be brought up and get that person lynched?

C'mon, I'm listening...

And while I'm at it. How many unlimited vigs have you seen in our GoG games? It's been brought up many times by some of our moderators how they consider that a overpowered role, thus they only include Vigs with limited shots. Do you include an unlimited Vig in a big game like this with what seems like a lot of roles already?

Wake up and think about it. If you use your brain it should be really clear that kill was a serial killer (or maybe they gave scum a one-shot extra day kill...maybe). Because someone who is town isn't going to waste it that early and use it that recklessly. Even if it's unlimited, a townie is going to gather more info before it's use so they don't make a mistake. And then the question is if you see something that is such a clear scum tell that it warrants a Vig shot, why can't you also mention it in the thread and get them lynched.

Nope, but if it's a Serial Killer, all bets are off. They are going to pick a target which enhances your chances to survive and a lurker makes sense because there is little to go on or killing someone early who you fear might be able to read you makes a lot of sense as well.

But hey, so many people insisting it's just a DayVig....no wonder you were fooled by the Town Arsonist.

--------

And as to your "town reads", if you are reading Tammy as 100% pure town...

You are letting her throw you a load of crap...

How many Serial Killers have we had in our games? How many times was Mafia going after them? 0! Heck, remember the Town Arsonist game...who won? Mafia...how did they win? They left the SK alive...

But listen to Tammy...she knows...only scum want to kill the SK so its a clear sign I must be scum. She's such the elite player, disagreeing with her and her great deal of experience would just be wrong....it doesn't matter that we have had SK roles in many games. It doesn't matter that mafia have usually left them alive for the confusion factor and the fact they are more likely to kill a townie than scum because town outnumbers scum. Nope, TammyTown knows better than our own experiences.

When I see a player repeatedly tell everyone how bad her own scum game is...or how they play so completely different when they are scum than they are playing now...
When I see a player misrepresent information or give bad analysis on a topic...such as which faction is the only one who wants to hunt SKs...

I DON'T READ THAT AS TOWN. I see someone potentially fabricating a case to remove a threat. I trust her as much as I trust Yogs...
But hey, keep reading her as completely 100% town...maybe her analysis is just merely a bit misguided...and maybe this time she's really a "Town Serial Killer"...I'd keep her alive too because she is just soooo town.

The short story...I'm pretty sure we have a Serial Killer. While there is a slim possibility scum were given a day kill or some townie used their power super recklessly, the far more likely possibility is a SK. I don't understand why so many of you seem hellbent not to see this, but I didn't understand how you let a "Town" Arsonist stay alive either with his claim of Town Arsonist who knows with certainty there is one scum on a fixed list of 3 names and not realize how insanely overpowered that would be...

I don't know as certainly this SK is TammyTown, but given the way she has fought back and tried to mischaracterize the SK situation and pass shade onto me; Given that the death of Sushi by a SK might be to eliminate someone who might be good at reading you which makes Nacho and Tammy more likely. I see her as the most likely suspect. It very well could be a GoG player who thought ahead in the WIFOM game and maybe Nacho. But so far, she is the one who sticks out.

-------------

As to this day...what the heck...
Ixam claims Compulsive "Unspecified" investation role.
Bookwyrm claims "Mason" but as a flavor role which may or may not be has actual role, but he will leave enough breadcrumbs for the other Masons if this just happens to be his actual role, but it might as just be flavor...
Babark claims "doc" but leaves it vague enough that he could be trolling us just like Bookwyrm and he might just be referring to his flavor role as a vet...

At the very least, we had a fair bit of activity. We had a lot of bad and forth accusations, many of them heated. There are a fair number of combinations of people I don't see as scum buddies together which is useful.

While it looks like we won't get a lynch, unlike many Day 1's, I think it's not a total waste...

And when I see Trentonlf voting No-Lynch, hell hast frozen over...

What the heck, this is a strange game. If the going gets strange, join the strange...

Unvote Dessimu
Vote no-Lynch

Boy, that was incredibly hard to type...I know somethings wrong, when I'm starting to agree with not lynching anyone Day 1. At least the day seems productive enough without a lynch.

Not to say I won't hammer. Heck, I'd even be willing to hammer Mr. Trapsmith if I had the chance as by changing my vote, i'm entitled to another post. What a long fricking day 1...

Okay, turning the game off and sleep helped. But I will say RL stress has ramped up significantly. Found out yesterday morning about a follow-up interview, and it's very much in the "Completely irrevocable high-risk/moderate reward life changing decisions" category so at some point tomorrow I'm just straight logging out for about 48 hours.

Want to actually post a few calmer thoughts but daughter is leaning on my arm asking me to come do stuff.

So for now,
unvote trentonlf
vote dessimu

Want to address RW's post above (which I quite liked), and dess/yogs/NL. But won't be til later.

@dessimu - you're riding yogs as suspicious for not STUing you (in a game that also featured Sushi and Quad)...and then vote Quad?

unvote dessimu
vote quadralien

You missed a few salient details in your day summary - it's been crazier than that. No love for the Paranoid Barn Owner or the no-flip-modkill? Even there I think I'm missing something important.

I hate long games. I just do. I think there are potential good things that came out of the day, but in the net my guess is we're well on the negative side of the ledger. Even of the claims on the table, it's going to take some time to sort out which are real/not. And if there's only one scum in the 4-5ish claims on the table, that's a losing proposition.

I'm not all that excited about dragging out a losing game, personally. The major ray of optimism for me is that maybe Sushi's non-flip means he was anti-town, but that's...far from a given. If he was town we're in a major hole already.

On the SK/vig issue, I'll just say RW seems to be treating this as a purely logical consideration. Reconsider it as a 50/50 (or even 40/60) logical/emotional consideration and there's quite a simple explanation for who did it, and why. Maybe they acted when they did because of fear, or exuberance, or both. But there's enough data on the table to suggest what they might have thought they were looking at.

Even among rational players not everyone plays with rationality consistently, and some players openly play a more mixed style. Honestly while I can't prove it, I don't think the "who" is a mystery. I can't tell if you're trying not to see it, see it and don't want to say, or really are just hung up on the pure logical proposition, which I know I'm prone to (see: bickering with trent) but is usually a mistake to stick with.

I'm willing to leave open the possibility that they are non-town, though I still think the play, in the context of all the variables at that moment, makes more sense as town than SK.

Ironically I'm usually open to no lynch but this has been one long-ass clusterfuck, and I think no lynch only digs the hole deeper.

My pool atm is basically this:
POE Quad, or
Resolve Dess (because of the upside if he flips scum, and at least potential for wagon-reading down the road when a few other pieces fall in)
If Dess has a town!role, I'm inclined to think they're a bit dime a dozen, even if we know there was at least one vanilla in the mix.

Don't have adalia's on this comp, but Quad is like 14 posts deep in a game that is now on ...day 19? Dess I do slightly town-read tonally but playwise a few things bug me - suspect yogs but vote quad? Like Ix's claim but maybe moreso I don't get the upside of teasing "I do something" at L-several.
Distant 3rd: Resolve yogs

Anyway, should edit this but going to park with daughter to have some fun and going to try turning the game off for the day to have a stress-free day before I get to start freaking out about RL (and prepping again) for srs tomorrow.

votecount / vote-count / vote count / VC

3 villagers want to kill Nathaniel (Nathan) Smith [Dessimu] -- Sarah (TammyTown), Dan (Brasas), Fergus (Nachomamma8),

3 villagers don't want to kill anyone -- Emily (trentonlf), Eric (yogsloth), Adam (RWarehall),

2 villagers want to kill Laura Jennings [babark] -- William (QuadrAlien), Emma (Ixamyakxim),

2 villager wants to kill Adam Johnson [RWarehall] -- Laura (babark), Craig (Bookwrym627),

2 villagers want to kill William (Bill) O'Brian -- Nathan (Dessimu), Marie (bler144),

2 villagers want to kill Eric Barton [yogsloth] -- Sean (Lifthrasil), Claire (cristigale),

1 villagers want to kill Sean O'Donnell (Sean-O!) [Lifthrasil] -- Justin (Stanari),

************************************************************************************************************** ***
if your vote is not where you want it to be, say so, and I'll amend the vc

I didn't read all of rw' scrap, but I read enough of it to know I'm not reading any more f his pompous mocking bullshit. He's the type of player I absolutely detest playing with. So kindly kiss my ass. I hope you are scum.

vote no lynch

Will change this in a bit I'm sure but probably but just needed to get that from my chest.

What the heck did we do all day that we're headed for a no lynch?

Unvote Lifthrasil
Vote Dessimu

Not the most happy with this lynch but ehh.

It's absolutely clear that RW didn't actually read what I posted and is just pissed off that I dared to suspect him. He's just repeating his own fantastical narrative and I feel misrepped here.

You're wrong and you can suck it.

I'm done with this bullshit. He's causing nothing but a distraction and distractions only help scum. If someone wants to talk to me about what i actually said and not this made up version I'm happy to expand on my thoughts there.

Apparently I've made a mistake every time I've tried to change my vote to no lynch and I'm beginning to think that means that I shouldn't be inviting and that dessimu is the right choice, but I really did like his last post.

I didn't like quad's last post though. I thought he was scum earlier in the day, but then he made a few posts that I did like and i started thinking he was town. But the last post just came off wrong. Considering moving my vote there but I'm hoping that dessimu comes back and answers the question nacho asked him and I was hoping for an actual claim not some oh I have a plan, not role related though. So I'm torn.

it is now

TWILIGHT -

votes are LOCKED ! A decision has been made! A LYNCH is about to be held (or not!) - You may continue to converse until the NIGHT post is made.

FINAL votecount / vote count / vote-count / VC

4 villagers want to kill Nathaniel (Nathan) Smith [Dessimu] -- Sarah (TammyTown), Dan (Brasas), Fergus (Nachomamma8), Justin (Stanari),

3 villagers don't want to kill anyone -- Emily (trentonlf), Eric (yogsloth), Adam (RWarehall),

2 villagers want to kill Laura Jennings [babark] -- William (QuadrAlien), Emma (Ixamyakxim),

2 villager wants to kill Adam Johnson [RWarehall] -- Laura (babark), Craig (Bookwrym627),

2 villagers want to kill William (Bill) O'Brian -- Nathan (Dessimu), Marie (bler144),

2 villagers want to kill Eric Barton [yogsloth] -- Sean (Lifthrasil), Claire (cristigale),

*************************************************************************************

...please stand by...

Finally, no more post restrictions (for now).

You guys should have split it up so we had a massive tie with two-vote wagons. Would have been awesome if we then got Flub's "something wonderful" and wiped every anti town faction out at once.

"That's it, everyone, I've had enough."

"Me too."

"Yeah."

More and more villagers in the group agree it is time to be done.

"Well what are we going to do then? We can't seem to agree on much." Says one villager.

"Does that matter?" Says another.

"We think we should kill Nathan, and there are more of us in agreeance on that than on anything else, right?" one villager states and a few stand by them.

"That's true, but we don't think we should kill anyone." A few villagers share this sentiment.

"Well a large portion of everyone here doesn't seem to care either way."

"That's not really fair." Says Nathan.

"Fair?" Says another. "Was what you did to Julie Ives 'fair'?"

"ME?! To Julie?! You must be crazy." Nathan is suddenly almost in tears at the horrible accusations.

"Confess it." Says one villager. "You know it's true." The group that want to kill Nathan approach where he sits as the others stand by and watch.

"No! I..." He stands. One villager grabs him by the arm. "Wait! No! You all know me! I am one of the founders! I love this community! I love you all! Why would you think it is me?! I don't understand!"

Nathan pulls away and backs away from them, stumbling over his chair, regaining his balance, and he starts towards the door. Those that want to kill him move fast after him. The rest of the group is close behind.

Nathan is out of the community home door and down the steps, but those that want him dead are right on his heels. One of them jumps from the top of the steps down onto Nathan's back and knocks him over. Everyone is right there watching.

"No, wait!" Someone from the group of people who don't want to kill anyone shouts and goes towards the group of people now holding Nathan down. The rest of those who don't want to kill anyone are right there as well. Together as a group, they start pulling off their fellow villagers from Nathan, and, while it is quite a struggle, they are strong enough to balance them in strength and are finally able to free Nathan to the point where it is only he and one other villager, locked in a hold of each other. Everyone looks on as it seems no one can seem to get the advantage. Those that want to kill no one hold off those that want to kill Nathan and Nathan holds his own against the last, who doesn't look like they are going to be able to kill Nathan on their own." It's a seeming stalemate.

"Well now what do we do?" Says one villager.

"Well, since it seems like two sides who have the most convinction are evenly balanced, there will be NO LYNCH tonight." Says one of the villagers from the onlookers.

"No killing anyone?"

"What?"

"Whhhaaat?"

"After all that."

"That's right. It looks like there is going to be NO LYNCH."

Lots of disgruntled and confused chatter is heard from the group.

"Oh my fucking gods." Says one of them.

"Are you fucking kidding me?" Says another.

***********************************************************************************

There has been NO LYNCH on Day 1.

The villagers all stand outside of the community home. Exhausted beyond belief. Many are demoralized or feel driven nearly mad.

The cool air of the night starts to hit you, now that the struggle and tension has calmed a bit. It feels good.

There has at least been a resolve, and while it didn't come easy, it's at least a resolve, for now. It has come and you all feel relief about it, no matter if it was what you wanted to have happen or not.

The uncertainty of what the night might hold, if anything, doesn't seem as daunting as it has in past nights, and you are all more at ease than you have been since the whole situation began.

You all breathe in the brisk air and look up into the trees and sky. Most of the leaves have fallen, and while there are still some leaves and there are a good number conifers in the area, the forest is mostly barren of cover and the full moon beams down on them all with its brightness.

You all take sevearl minutes of silence to re-gather yourselves and your thoughts and regain some balance within.

"Sooo, I guess we just meet here tomorrow for more discussion about what to do then?" Asks one villager to the group.

"Uhhh, yeah, I guess so." Says one, looking towards the others for confirmation.

"Yeah, let's meet in the morning, skip chores, do break fast here, and see how we all feel in the morning and try to start afresh on the situation then." Says another.

"Well then, goodnight." Says one villager, and they start towards the path that leads toward their home.

"Yah, goodnight everyone." Says another, and they head off as well.

"Goodnight."

"G'night."

"Night."

You all head off in your respective directions into the moonlit woods. The shadows of the trees swallow each of you one by one as you make your ways into the depths of the forest towards your homes.

*****************************************************************************************

it is now NIGHT -

there is NO POSTING at NIGHT !!!

DAYBREAK - The Day has just begun. Everyone is still processing the what happened during the Night. There is NO POSTING during this stage, ever.

Oakwood Village (population: 51)
------------------------------------------------------------
October 28, 1696 -

The villagers begin to arrive very early the next morning to the community home. The majority of the group have been gathered for a little time yet some are missing, and you all await their arrival. After a little time, one of you speaks up, a tremble of worry in the voice, "Well, it's starting to look like this could be all of us?" They begin to count the group. "I'm...unsettled if it is true. Are we really missing three people? Should we wait longer?"

"We were told to meet early, it's past early, I think this could be all of us." Says someone. There are mumbles among the group about the missing people.

"Everyone?" The gentle voice of Sarah Matthews sings through the crowd and everyone pauses their mumbling to listen. "Could you all please come outside with me? I have something I need to share with you all." As with any community member, you all grant her what she asks of you as it is not unreasonable and you gather outside the home in a large mostly circle. Sarah stands somewhat in the middle and continues.

"I went home last night after what happened here and ran it over and over in my head." She pauses. "For now I'll keep it simple. I think Nathan Smith is a threat to us, and I'm going to kill him."

Suddenly she's running at him where he stands in the circle, she pulls out what looks like a silver dagger, lunges at him and before he can move, plunges it into his chest." As it goes in he gives off a very loud, beastly howl - "ARRWWWRRRROOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!" His entire body shifts from a man into a man-beast. A Werewolf. He falls dead and his body shifts back into a man, the silver dagger remains in his chest.

Nathaniel (Nathan) Smith is DEAD. He was a Werewolf.

The villagers stare on for a few minutes in amazement and then you all take his body to his home and bury him.
It always seemed like he was just a regular villager with nothing un-ordinary about his existence at all. He seemed to be a part of this community and to care about everyone that lives here.

He moved to Oakwood Village 19 years ago as one of the original establishing settlers of the community. He had lived for twelve years before that in the busy city of Portland where city society and living among all the forming of councils and organizations and governments began to bore him and feel more and more ill-suited for him. So, when he saw the bulletin posted calling for a meeting of anyone interested in heading out to a yet-to-be-decided-upon location to begin a community settlement, the idea struck him as enticing in many ways and he went to the meeting, and then more meetings, and he ended up being a crucial founding member, with much skill and knowledge to contribute.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ---------------------

After burying Nathan, it has become apparent who the few other villagers not with the group are. Those of you here travel back to the community home to see if anyone has arrived in the time that you were gone to bury Nathan. No one is here. The community bell is rung, and everyone has a meal and waits to see if any of the missing arrive.

None do.

Adam Johnson, William (Bill O'Brian), and Craig Adams are missing. You all make your way to their homes one by one to see if you can find anything about them.

First, to Adam Johnson's home. His fire is cold and there is no trace of him inside. You all search his surrounding property thoroughly. He is nowhere to be found. You all think he is likely dead and you take a moment to reflect on him.

Adam was married to Megan, who you all know and love, and have four children - Adam who is 16, Aaron who is 13, and twins, Owen and Erin who are 10. He loved them all deeply and there wasn't anything he wouldn't do for them if he was able. He sent them away to be safe in Nashua until things resolved here.
He hoped to live through it all and see them again, but there was no question about his staying, it made sense to you all.

He was quite a strong man, almost 6 feet tall, and his stature was thick and formidable, yet he still had a little belly on him from being so well-fed. He had thick black hair all over his body, arms, legs, chest, and face, which was covered in more hair than his head and seems to take up a good 60% of his face. His beard was so thick and gnarly that there were often numerous things to be found within it. Wood chips and sawdust, flakes of apple, nuts, and an assortment of breadcrumbs all were things that were likely to reside in his beard.

You all go into his home for a closer look to see if you can determine anything. His journal sits on a bedside stand. Someone picks it up.

"There is a letter to his wife here. It says 'open if you return and I am gone.' Hmmmm. Should we open it?" You all agree to open the letter and read it aloud.

"Dear Megan,

Tell this to our children at your discretion. I trust you will know what is best.

I stayed behind when the village went to Nashua because I am a werewolf and am directly involved with what happened in Oakwood Village, whatever state it is in upon your return.

I was not thrilled with the choice of Julie Ives being killed but I wasn't there for that, thankfully. I know she was very close friends with our children.

I will tell you how I came to be this way.

One full-moon night in November almost 12 years ago I heard the chickens making a fuss and I went out to check on them thinking I'd find a fox or something getting at them in the winter night, desperate for food. Instead I found some version of a man, a man we know very well and that I have become the best of friends with since our working together to help establish this village - he was standing right in front of me in partial werewolf form, staring right back at me in almost as much horror as I was at him. I couldn't believe it was him...

He was devouring a fox that had been attacking our chickens. I recognized him immediately and froze, I didn't know what to do. He later told me I had startled him and he instinctively lunged at me. There was a full moon and he could not help himself, and has told me since that he is very sorry for what he has done to us all and that he would take it back if he could.

Know that I consider him a true friend to this day, and I have learned to accept this part of me as a part of life and I am at peace with it. Know that Nathan will never allow harm to come to you or our children. You are all safe.
He clawed me across the arm and bit on the right side of my rib-cage and I really only suffered medium wounds. I passed out from shock and the next day woke up in his home. He was sitting there with me, ready to explain and apologize. He had never intended to harm me and regrets ever having done so. Please, don't hold it against him. I have learned to embrace my affliction. I see it as a natural part of the world and existence that it simply befell upon me to be one.

I hated that I've had to hide the full truth from you. I love you deeply and never wanted me being a werewolf to put you in danger, but now that I am dead, you are safe. I love you. I love our children. Please forgive me.

Forever loving you,

Adam"

Adam Johnson is DEAD. He was a Werewolf.