Thanks.

After the flip, I was pretty sure there was at least one scum on the wagon. From there, I ultimately decided to check on Lift's vote. He placed a L-1 vote, and it would be very reasonable to assume the RVS vote at the front of the wagon would fall off when L-1 was reached, leaving him with the vote position least likely to draw any attention (not the first vote, not L-1, and not the hammer). I can't read Flub, but I don't recall ever having successfully identified Lift as scum either.

The easiest response is number 3 > Brasas + Agent is impossible unless Flub caught The Stupid. Town!Flub wouldn't fake claim anything at this stage of the game.

1 > Flub + Brasas is odd. I asked about his willingness to vote Lift, because I was wondering if he would be brazen enough to start D2 with a vote on a scum buddy (that feeling I spoke of, previously). There would be some risk involved, but townies aren't likely to jump on him. If he's there in time, he can jump off with some talk about trying to (successfully) draw a quick hammer from scum. If he isn't there in time, he gets cover from having started the wagon on scum (a nonsensical move for scum).

2 > So the most likely pair is Flub + Agent. Flub opens up with a vote, and if a gullible townie takes the bait, Agent can hammer for the win. It doesn't require both of them to be online together for a quick hammer, since Flub is already in place. Flub can whip out the cop claim for a scum read if it will tip the balance, and eventually leave the wagon with little suspicion if no townie takes the bait.

I investigated you, and see above about asking Flubbucket about voting you.

Assuming you mean "what did you do last night", then I investigated Lift and received a Town result.
If you mean "what are you going to do tonight", then I expect the answer is "die".

If it wasn't for rule #3 I'd bet some money on you never being Night Killed in this game.

Ever.

Ever.

Ever.

Ever.

Ever.

Ever.

Ever.

Sorry, perhaps I am slow. But I don't see the logic in this. You want to probe flubb's willingness to vote on a scum buddy - but to do so you ask about his willingness to vote for the one player you cleared as town. That doesn't really make sense, I think.

However, you writing that the cop 'obviously' didn't get a scum result in Post 97, might be read as hint that you got a town result in retrospect. Which would fit with you bein cop, but is still far from proof. So please enlighten me about the logic of the point above. Sorry if I'm dense. But I want to be sure before placing a vote. Because if I bring the wrong one of you two to L-1, it's game over for us.


Obviously. Since one of you two will have to be lynched today and you have no reason to vote for yourself, changing your vote would be nonsense, no matter whether you are town or scum.

Flub hadn't claimed cop at that point, so I wasn't sure if he was scum. He seemed quite happy to vote Brasas, and I wanted to see what he would say if I asked about the only other player I knew was town. I wasn't sure what to expect.

Big Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaawn.

I wonder what will happen if this bores me for the third time.

I threw a coin and got heads...

Vote ...

Just kidding.

A few things to point out:

Good stuff Wyrm. I like it. But I distrust bullshit artists - I got close personal experience with the type :P
Scum|Wyrm could make that post. Flub's vote on me is what''s keeping me from voting you, ya'know?

@Agent
React please?

What da F were you thinking with that vote on me Mr Flub?


@Agent

Please be the real cop, please? I'm giving you the puppy eyes right now.

Both of them are suspicious of you, what could it mean? Pray tell.

@Lift

Run by me again why we aren't continuing the mass claim? There's no realistic scenario where we don't lose 1 PR...

Exactly. We know we will lose 1 PR: the cop. No need (at the moment) to reveal the doctor to scum too. We have what we need to continue. We have two players we can concentrate on. One of these two has to be scum. So we already have better chances than before and we can concentrate on finding the one scum in two.

If we lynch correctly today, we will live another Night. The cop most likely won't. If we reveal the doctor too, he will be killed the following night, especially since it is normal that the doctor can't self-protect (and there are no hidden mechanisms in this game). If we don't reveal the doctor, scum has only a 50% chance of hitting him in the following Night. Not 100%. Plus, if scum targets the Vanilla, the Doctor actually has a chance of protecting him. So we might get lucky and get to prevent the Nightkill in the following Night.
If we continue claiming, we throw all these possibilities away and know for sure that we will first lose the Cop and then the Doctor.

So, now it's your turn. Do you think it would be pro-town to continue the mass claim? And if so, why?

That you are scum.....and it's still a distinct possibility.

@Brasas - Sorry to disappoint you, but puppy eyes can't change facts. I'm not cop.

@Lifhrasil - Do you really think this game is going to last that long? We lynch today, there's a kill tonight. Tomorrow there are three players.
The only way It's going to a third night is if we no-lynch tomorrow, and that's giving scum a major advantage. So we don't much need to worry, no?

Actually you are right. Since the copkill tonight is not avoidable (with the cop being Macho), either we hit correctly tomorrow again, or we mislynch and lose. Damn. I'm not used to the player number being that low that early in the game. Still it's not really necessary to give scum more information to work with than strictly necessary. If the majority is for continuing the mass claim, I'm willing to go along. But I don't see the necessity for that at the moment and therefore I don't see it as a pro-town move.

By the way, I think we can exclude the 'both flubb and bookwyrm are scum' scenario by now. Otherwise the real cop would long since have voted for any one of the two. Becaus he would know that both are fake claiming. So the only conclusion is that there is no additional 'real' cop. That in turn means that one of these two MUST be town, as unbelievable as that is.

At the moment flubb feels somewhat more scummy to me than Bookwyrm. Only, as already stated, flubb always feels scummy to me and that makes me hesitate.

Then consider what it means for each of us to be scum.

Scum!Flub means that either Agent or Brasas must be scum (Wyrm is town cop and cleared Lift).

Scum!Wyrm means that Brasas must be scum, or else Wyrm + Partner passed up the chance to win while Town!Flub had a vote on Town!Brasas for so long. I've been online with everyone while that vote was in place.

Gah. The situation feels like a stale mate. Either Brasas or agent is the second scum. The other one is town. But none of us dares to vote. The scum out of fear to look over-eager and townies don't dare to vote because they know, that if that vote is wrong the remaining scum will speed-hammer and win the game.

Any idea for a way out?

After thinking it over again: we could continue the mass claim after all. Just to get things moving. That would have to lead to a second conflict (because the pool of claimable town roles is limited), but also to one uncontested claim (since there is only one scum left among the un-claimed players). This one uncontested claimant would then be certified town, because there is no way that a false-claiming scum could stay uncontested. But would that really help with the decision? We would still be at a 50/50 chance to hit correctly, only now among four players instead of two.

What do you think?

...stupid 10 minutes rule!

That's true. But it doesn't help with the decision either, since Brasas might well be scum. I know I am town. So, as stated, the second scum must be one of Agent or Brasas anyhow. And scum Brasas would fit both the flubbscum and the Wyrmscum theory. But I have no way to verify whether Brasas is scum or not.

But wait, actually that might be a way out of the stale-mate! Let's continue with the mass claim after all. If we get lucky, Brasas might be the uncontested claimant. That would clear him as town and thereby strongly suggest that Bookwyrm and me are cleared too.

Of course scum, knowing this plan, will do their best to claim the same role as Brasas to avoid clearing him. Therefore my suggestion is: Brasas goes last. If he is scum, he has no choice but to counter-claim one of the two others. But if Agent is scum and we make him go fist, he has a 50% chance of claiming my role.

So I propose: we continue claiming and Agent goes first.

Agent, of course, will prefer that I go first, for the very same reasons that I stated. No matter whether he's scum or town. But Agent, IF you are town, you know already that Brasas has to be scum. As Bookwyrm laid out: ScumFlubb would mean that Bookwyrm is town and cleared me. ScumWyrm plus ScumMe would mean, that we were very stupid and failed to lynch TownBrasas. Which is unlikely. Therefore, IF you are town, you already know that the second scum is not me. And therefore, if you are town, you should agree to me not going first. If you are scum, however, you will have to be against going first because it is too risky.

Did I make any sense? Or were my words too convoluted again. It does make sense in my head at least (but that may well be a strange place ;-) )

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Or, to follow Bookwyrm's much more concise suggestion: I select Agentcarr to claim next! (Reasons: see above)