You're not doing yourself - scratch that - you're not doing town any favors like this. Guess you decided no point going deep from the start heh?

I'll remind everyone I had the chance to hammer Drealmer and waited for agent to get off before jumping on. How easy it would be be to claim noob mistake? Alas poor Drealmer.

Sure, there would be heat, but enough for automatic lynch at MYLO D2 - IF I was scum and knew Drealmer was Town for sure? Worth the risk...

Which brings us to Mr Hammer.


So it's you and Flub? Is that why rush voting don't scare you? Otherwise the possibility this is Blue on Blue would have to cross your mind as the more dangerous one... right?

PS: You'll have to walk me through that logic around No Lynch vs Mislynch some other time. I don't understand the bolded. I think you have some internalized heuristic I am missing. I get the value of the flip to be sure it's a mislynch, but if I decide to risk a 'Drealmer is Town' lock, and see no scum counter wagon as happening, isn't it obviously better that he survives and avoid the mislynch? NK will happen anyway, and after claim Scum will kill outside anyway.

I don't have any read on you. Your play might be town - with the mis-conception that a no-lynch on Day 1 might somehow have been good - or you might be scum doing his best to be flying under the radar.

Flubb, however, I am suspicious of. The problem is: he always plays scummy, even when he is town. But looking at yesterday's train, my suspicion of flubb intensifies. I think we can be quite confident that there was at least one scum on it when it stalled. As drealmer himself put it: either both scum were already on the train (that would mean flubb and you) and therefore they couldn't hammer. Or scum was hesitant to hammer out of fear to look bad and therefore had to wait for some time before hammering. This might mean that the hammerer Bookwyrm is scum.

So we either have flubbucket and Brasas as scum team. Or flubbucket and Bookwyrm. I don't really believe that there was no scum at all on that train.

But since we are at mislynch-and-lose, I think it is already time to suggest something unpopular: let's make a mass claim. If we mislynch, we lose. If we mass-claim the cop and the doctor will be revealed to scum, but we get a shot at lynching right. Especially since the cop can share whom he investigated tonight. Sure, we will lose him in the next night because he isn't protectable. Or scum might roleblock him instead and kill someone else. But the doctor will also have an increased chance of protecting the correct target. And scum might screw up the claiming. So, considering that we are close to losing, I think that is our best way to go in spite of the dangers connected to it.

And I propose, of course, that whom I suspect most goes first: flubbucket. I would like you to claim. And then all the others from the wagon (including me, of course).

Bolded a few things to comment later. I want to see more dialogue from others - since neither you nor Wyrm jumped on I at least hope this isn't a slow roll to a rush on me.

Two things I'll say already: I want Wyrm's claim to be first. We know Dess was town.

I don't usually like mass-claims (guess that's why you say they're unpopular :-P) but it does seem like the best way to go right now. The math works out in Town's favour.

Right now, lynching blindly (we're not, but for the sake of the argument) we have a 2/5 chance of hitting scum.
If everyone claims, then we have at least a 1/2 chance of hitting scum (if one claims cop or doctor, say).
And if they both claim the same role, then we've got a 2/3 chance of hitting scum.

That's a long view, of course, but I'm quite willing to have a mass claim. I have no particular favourite order, I'll keep my suspicions to myself for a bit longer.


Off to work!

You do know I loathe claiming.

However, if a consensus is reached I'll go first.

Do I then get to choose who's next??

Think on this plan....

THE LAST REMAINING VANILLA TOWN CLAIMS.

The next lynch candidate then comes from the remaining pool of players.

Several other players had the chance to hammer too. If you were scum, then hammering a wagon that started with an RVS vote sounds like a surefire way to draw an investigation. You may recall that I watched the Resistance game, and I've seen you in other threads. Ignorant does not equal stupid; while you might be ignorant of some mafia particulars, you aren't dumb.

The only rushed vote thus far has been Flub's D2 opener. If you and Flub are both town, then scum has apparently passed up the chance for an easy win. Vote-Vote-Win. Second, even if you are both town, there isn't much I can do about it, since Flub controls Flub's vote. Lastly, Quick and Brutal game is Quick and Brutal; if we lose, we lose.

Assume everyone is shooting completely blind. Player opinions will alter the odds in unpredictable ways.
If we No Lynch D1:
-Scum are guaranteed to have both of their powers (NK and Roleblock) available N1. They will be gunning for the cop, and they get to pick two out of five possible targets. 40% chance of cop block.
-We pick one player to kill on D2. We don't hit scum, we're almost certainly dead because scum get their turn with their same two powers and only 3 targets to choose from.

If we lynch D1:
-We have a chance of hitting scum, and who votes where (and why) could be very telling.
-If we kill a scum, we effectively remove the roleblock from play, regardless of which scum has it (it has been pretty much universal here that a player may only use one power at night, regardless of how many they have available).
-We get two shots at killing scum before we lose, and therefore scoring an "extra life", instead of one shot.

Drealmer 's lynch specifically:
-If he was scum, then his buddy was almost certainly either Dessimu or Agent. Flub wouldn't have bussed him in that fashion (no need). Lift didn't have to get on the wagon, though he could be reasonably sure that Agent would remove his RVS vote when he saw the wagon. Your vote seemed unlikely to be a bus either, since there was no real reason for such brinkmanship. That means we're pretty much set for hitting scum, and someone needed to actually finish him before the deadline. Combine several other factors (Drealmer's play thus far, the safer-for-scum vanilla claim, the risk of outing a PR by going anywhere else, that Flub wasn't likely to claim even if we did counter wagon him, and the game dragging because of player indecision), and I hammered.
-If he's town, then we've still taken our shot, and we've got some sure information to use for analysis.

Now that Dessimu is dead, it is absolutely sure that at least one scum was on the wagon.

Obviously, the cop didn't get a scum result last Night, or we'd have a claim already. Assuming the standard rules we use for a doctor in GOG mafia (doctor cannot self protect), there is exactly one player left in the game the doctor can successfully protect. I'm against a mass claim, since it effectively kills the cop and renders the doctor useless. Any claim at this point basically does the same thing.

That would be an option. If the majority wants Bookwyrm to go first (being in the exposed spot of the hammerer) that would also be OK. But my preference would still be you going first. Especially after your next post:


Did you just warn your scumbuddy implicitly that there is only one vanilla left and that that is therefore no better claim than any of the others? That posting kind of looks like it. Especially since both myself and agent avoided pointing this fact out specifically. Would have been a nice trap for a careless scum who might assume that Vanilla is a safe false claim. But no, you had to go and warn everyone.

Quick question for you, Flub: What are the chances you think you might vote for Lift?

I'm tunneling hard on Flub / Wyrm, especially after rereading D1 and seeing Drealmer's wagon as reaction in the context of the wagon on Flub. Wyrm voted Flub and things got out of hand, how they both reacted is interesting. Soem of the earlier RVS is also interesting.

I'm a dumbfuck squared. I forgot the usual GOG Mafia scum don't have daychat. That makes organizing a rush much harder, but it also means this kind of communication is something I should have been paying more attention to. Not sure I have the willpower to reread all again so soon though. >:(

Yeah yeah... derpclear or WIFOM, I know. But I'm pissed at myself. Too many rookie mistakes.

I really don't think the No Lynch topic is productive now. If Drealmer had been scum you might have an angle to push a mislynch on me based on the defense I tried of him. As is, I see it as a distraction from more pressing arguments. Which makes it a good play :) - I'm a sucker for arguments for the sake of arguments. Takes effort to park this for later. ;)

First, not all of them could be scum.
Second maybe all / some scum were already on the wagon.
Lastly, unlike me, maybe the scum off (Wyrm) was worried about his hammer calling attention to his dance with his partner on the wagon (Flub) when one of them was at L-1 earlier.

Ergo - one player did hammer. But I see you defended that action adequately. Who knows - maybe I am tunneling.

Why thank you!

[Blinks seductively]
Why don't you just confess darling? I'm sure all the dissimulation is sooo tiring.

Are you good at bussing? This seems too little too late.


I kind of want to see a slip here. Frustrated that Flub is a loose cannon and immune to influence from scumchat?
You're right that he should be bussing you, not the other way round.

I got just what you need. A nice footrub, and a back massage. And some sweet lemonade! Just roll over and confess - you can have it all!


Thanks, that was one of the things I wanted to make explicit to Lift later.

Or he's still fishing. But if Flub's got one thing going for himself, is that he's bloody laconic, and he's ignoring you just the right way to not be obvious. Excepting for the timing of voting Drealmer that is.

It's do or die. I see it as we're all at L-1 kind of. So it makes sense.

That was another of the the things I wanted to tell Lift. Unpopular or not, anyone against mass claim at this time is scummy as hell.

Only argument I rem is that mass claim makes the game not fun. I don't see it. It won't kill the game - too much WIFOM to sort through anyway. Mass claim at this point IS the game. It will be messy though.


Meta comment: Low player count and open setup was just what I needed to get a nice feel. I will jump into Drealmer's game with gusto - I expect a tasty contrast in flavor.


Who would you try to pocket? Me or Agent?

Welcome to your first GOG mafia game! ;)

You brought it up, I responded. I'd be happy to argue the No-/Mis- more post game, if you like, with the expected result of neither of us actually being convinced by the other's priorities.

And if Drealmer was scum, I'd have actually been placing you on the town side of things, not the scum side. That was a direct part of my reasoning: it would have been some really weird brinkmanship for scum!you to try and use to save scum!Drealmer.

I was saying that "I didn't hammer before Agent jumped off, so I'm not scum" doesn't fly. No wings, no propulsion, dead on the ground. :P

You asked "Is that why rush voting don't scare you?" and I said why it doesn't.

Please spare me yo...wait, back massage? With or without dagger?

As far as I'm concerned, we are in LyLo (lynch right or lose) (though technically speaking, we could theoretically survive a No Lynch). A mass claim will probably turn it into a 1v1. Scum choose which role(s) are in that fight. We still need to succeed in the D3 lynch after surviving this one, and I'd like to maximize our chances of that.

If we lynch wrong, we lose. If any townie claims, we are definitely in LyLo because scum have no chance of missing their shot if both survive. I'm not starting that party unless the majority agrees that I should.

Is that where the tunnel comes from, then?

I'm glad to see you missed it. :D

Exactly. That's why we have to maximize our chances of lynching correctly today. It's our last chance not to lose immediately. How do you propose to increase our chances of hitting scum if we avoid claiming?

And other question: would you be willing to vote flubb and if no, why not?

I haven't written Flub off as town quite yet. I'd like to see Flub's answer to my question before going into it further. I've got this itch, I think other people would call it a "feeling", about something.

Heh

But I liked the humor. :)
Wait, is this your pocket?

You're still my scummiest read. You're the lynchpin mate. Bus some more please?


@all
If we mass claim, we do it when we're all online yes?

^
Let's!

[waits for the Archimedian Canuck to get off work and process the flow so far]

Inquiring minds want to know: What would you do if I tried to bus you?