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Microfish_1: However, is this the time to say ZFR's immortal phrase "I have a PR! I dare you to NK me, you scum!"? I thought not.
I'm not sure what this line is supposed to be saying. Can you elaborate, please?
@Korotan: especially in a game without power roles we NEED to lynch. Flips are the only way to get information. We' can't trust I'm investigative roles. Scum may select those players whose flip gives the least information. So the most information will come from our discussions whom to lynch and the subsequent flips.
Microfish_1: In ZFR's calculations, I don't see how NL ever *benefits* town, just how it mathematically doesn't *hurt* town.
It benefits by making the pool of people you lynch from smaller, thus increasing the chance of lynching scum.
Statistically, if you have no other information, NL can be good if there's only a small number of players left. Especially at MYLO. Imagine four players. 3 town, 1 scum. Mislynch means 2 town on scum enter Night. One town is killed, the game is lost for town. The likelihood for randomly lynching correctly is about 25%.

No lynch means, the next day starts with two town and one scum. Increasing towns chances to 33%
Lifthrasil: @Korotan: especially in a game without power roles we NEED to lynch. Flips are the only way to get information.
Yes, but you won't get any less flips with a single NL in an-even numbered game.

9vs2 and 10vs2. The number of flips/wagons to analyse in both games is same.

e.g. let's say we have an even-numbered 7 vs 1 game

Without NL

_ Lynch (flip and anlyse)
_ NK (flip and analyse)
(we're now at 5 vs 1)

_ Lynch (flip and analyse)
_ NK (flip and analyse)
(we're now at 3 vs 1 - we have to lynch scum or it's game over)

With NL

_ NL
_ NK (flip and analyse)
(we're now at 6 vs 1)

_ Lynch (flip and analyse)
_ NK (flip and analyse)
(we're now at 4 vs 1)

_ Lynch (flip and analyse)
_ NK (flip and analyse)
(we're now at 3 vs 1 - we have to lynch scum or it's game over)

Did you see that? In both cases we have exactly the same number of wagon analyses to make. We didn't lose any flip analysis.

Just to be clear: I'm not advising we do a D1 NL now. I'm saying: Mathematically it doesn't matter when we do it. In the example above, at 3vs1 they should do an NL to get an additional flip to analyse from NK and to have a smaller pool to lynch from.
@ZFR: the number of total flips may not change with a single NL. Still it would be very bad play to start with that single NL. NL on Day 1 is bad for town even in a game with PRs. But even worse in a mountainous game.
Lifthrasil: @ZFR: the number of total flips may not change with a single NL. Still it would be very bad play to start with that single NL. NL on Day 1 is bad for town even in a game with PRs. But even worse in a mountainous game.
It is definitely bad in a game with PRs. Why in a mountainous game?
EDIT to the above: ^ assuming an even number of players.

dedoporno: and if it matters when it's done.
Eeek! I was wrong. It does matter.
ZFR: Bonus task: Prove that, as far as Expected Value is concerned, for any even number of players it doesn't matter at which stage of the game the No-Lynch takes place.
From EV point of view, it does matter: the NL should happen as soon as possible.

e.g. for the simplest case 5 vs 1. There are only 2 possibilites of NLing: D1 and D2.

NLing on D1
Town EV = 1 - (4/5 * 2/3) = 0.4667

NLing on D2:
Town EV = 1- (5/6 * 2/3) = 0.4444

(and no NLing at all)
Town EV = 1 - (5/6 * 3/4) = 0.375

Basically the sooner you NL the sooner you'll have a smaller pool to pick Mafia from.

This of course is using EV, i.e. where Town Lynches randomly (and scum NKs randomly). In a "real" game, other considerations have to be taken into account:
_ The faster the NL the faster we have one fewer person to be taken into account when analysing wagons, making analysis easier.
_ On the other hand, the faster the NL the faster we have one fewer Townie to provide his/her own analysis which might help win the game.

Do note however, that according to Mafia Scum statistic, Townies tend to do worse than their EV indicates.
Okay let us assume that we can analysis from jumping on each other. Then right we have two persons which can be put one way or another.
We can say ZFR is right with his analysis and Trenton is so energetic to jump on him and bring to vote because this would favour scum letting us do their work.
Or we can say ZFR is scum and want us to confuse with mathematical logic so we get into trance and get a slower start and here are double tripple mindgames that I will not going to write down because even thinking about them make my head spinning.

Then there is chance c where both are right cause statistic can show, that gut feeling is not always right and because there is something you can only really find out if you are a chaotican from the virtual adepts of MtA because only then you can see all the numbers that flow into the equitation and so can prophetize it with calculation.
Okay so from continuing my train of thought, if the scum would nk either ZFR or Trenton we would assume it whas the other one for him getting dangerous or it is trick so we do their work.
Alternativly they can NK another one and we may think it is trick so the suspicion is not falling on them.

So I again say, NL on Day 1 with equal number would be good with no discussion from my opinion cause it gives the Mafia more option for mindgames for finding out dangerous persons to get them eliminated or lead them on with a red herring instead of having them to randomly put one.

Of course my opinion could be pointed to the opposite that we would loose important data but I think it is better to just let them do without giving them any information so we have a smaller pool to analyze if we start in the favourable position.
Hey everyone.....catching up.....will post more in a bit. First off, just wanted to break the ice with a silly reply and a note to ALL PLAYERS(below):

Pookina: Hi. I am myself.
bucktoothgamer: Quite a bold claim. Wonder if someone can counter it...
Wha?!? But that's who I am.....I am ALSO myself. o.0 :D

++++

Also a note to all players-observers-etc: The first prize choices for the first round of the contest are now listed here

Anyone who hasn't done so who wants to opt out of the contest can do so by replying to me in that thread....also anyone who opted out who wants to opt back in(given a prize they like or etc is on offer) can do so at any time before the draw(some time during N1, before end of N1).

(all future prizes will be listed in the same thread as well btw)
GymHenson: Hey everyone.....catching up.....will post more in a bit. First off, just wanted to break the ice with a silly reply and a note to ALL PLAYERS(below):

bucktoothgamer: Quite a bold claim. Wonder if someone can counter it...
GymHenson: Wha?!? But that's who I am.....I am ALSO myself. o.0 :D

++++

Also a note to all players-observers-etc: The first prize choices for the first round of the contest are now listed here

Anyone who hasn't done so who wants to opt out of the contest can do so by replying to me in that thread....also anyone who opted out who wants to opt back in(given a prize they like or etc is on offer) can do so at any time before the draw(some time during N1, before end of N1).

(all future prizes will be listed in the same thread as well btw)
Dammit you really put some good games in there.
Sort of replied to Trent/ZFR/Lift, and replied to Pookina:
(Note to all: I will use limited bolding to call attention to parts of posts I think all should read, or when I have important thoughts to share)
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Hmm, ZFR seems to have a good idea, but Trent is opposed(Lift seems to be as well)....as per Posts 48, 49, and 51. I am wondering if a scum is hiding among them, or if it's just town with set play styles tunneling a bit on fellow town? What do y'all think?

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Pookina: After wrapping my head around ZFR's explanation, I...am entranced by the idea of a no-lynch, I think. However, I do think it's not favorable for us to waste this mathematical no-lynch on D1, for a reason: yes, wagon analysis. I know I bring those two words up often, but I do believe that they can lead to somewhere and especially more so here with no power roles to muddy the water. So unless we're not gonna do wagon analysis, we shouldn't think about it on D1 at the very least.

...but now that I think about it, NL is tempting to increase chances on paper, but it comes at the cost of wagon analysis on any day. We'll effectively have to base off "alignment by vote patterns" based off incomplete vote counts, more or less.
Tbh I also think we should hold off on the nolynch until a "day" further in as well.

As to nolynching in general and re this game: I am okay with it during certain instances . In this case, ZFR is a vet player so his idea seems more sound to me(based on his experience and such)...but I agree we should hold off on it....at the very least not use it on D1.

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(Bump needed)
Replied to Micro and Korotan, and one thought to all near the bottom of this post:
(everyone make sure to check your replies :))
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Microfish_1: i don't like the concept of NL. I wanna have something to analyze. Who jumps on whom, etc. Who jumps off, falls off, or is pushed off the wagon. I want to see who is filled with profundity in their comments and who is not. I want to see the fella who is eating my apple pie. Because we have no specials to help us out at night, I want to see analyzation and rationalization. I wanna see the beefeeters do their job. I want to see who obfuscates and who aids....you get the idea?

In ZFR's calculations, I don't see how NL ever *benefits* town, just how it mathematically doesn't *hurt* town.
To me personally: Fwiw, if ZFR says the math checks out and a NL(at some point, not on D1 necessarily) would help town, then i'd tend to believe him and be more willing to go with it.

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Korotan: Dammit you really put some good games in there.
You can opt into the contest if you're not already opted in or had opted out.....that is allowed...to do so, go to that thread and reply to my post there asking to opt in/opt back in. :)

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Aside to ALL: First ZFR claimed the NL could be done on any "day", now they claim it's better if it's done ASAP. Don't know what to think about the situation now, tbh.
GymHenson: ZFR seems to have a good idea, but Trent is opposed
Seriously, what are you guys talking about? What is this "good idea" of mine that trent is opposed to?

Did I post anywhere (pre #48) that I want a D1 NL? Are you perhaps confusing it with Koro's #37?