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Feel better today and will try to be around more :-D

I see nothing much has changed and we are hitting a stagnant stage. I think what everyone should do is VOTE for who their top scum pick is.(This is not a vote from me). My vote is staying on Carradice, nothing has changed to make me think he is Town tying to figure the game out. I encourage everyone to do an ISO on them if they have not already.


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FlockeSchnee: Another possibility could be MafiaLift and MafiaDedo trying to use Carradice "didn't read my PM" as an opportunity, but that doesn't make much sense too me, because they are painting each other as Mafia, unless that's the point? Give one of them the "if that one flips Mafia the other one probably isn't"-clear? Does such a thing even exist?
This is often a conclusion people come to, and it absolutely can be used by scum to manipulate the situation. Scum will sometimes try to distance themselves from a partner by calling them mafia and pushing for their lynch to earn Town cred if their partner is lynched and flips scum.

I am moving FlockeSchnee to my Town core and will not vote them. I like their posts and questions, they are coming from a Town mindset trying to figure out the game.


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yogsloth: ....
Poke Poke Poke
Hey everyone, I'm back from my trip, sorry for not being around. Catching up now.
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trentonlf: Leaning Town for me is not the same as me saying I will not vote someone because I think they’re Town.
I understand that and everything below but I just want to make sure I understand your stance re ZFR - you still have him leaning as Town but since you are being wary of him you would lynch him anyway. Is that correct?


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FlockeSchnee: ? Why point that out?
For the record. Because ZFR suggested some correlation between Joe's voters and Carradice's supposed flip as scum. I can't remember what happened that made Carradice look worse at that time which for a while made me consider voting for them. Because of that I removed my vote from Joe. I came on record that I realized it was there and understood ZFR's statement if he decided to make a case out of it.


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ZFR: OK, I did a reread on Carradice. I wanted to see if I'm tunneling too much, but the more I look at it, the scummier it looks.
It's about time to do that myself, I suppose. It apparently worked for Trent and now you to spot something out of line. I'll do that some time tonight.
I'm at halfway of Carradice's posts byt the looks of the scrollbar (near #425). It's quite an annoying read really as I'm reminded of the things that frustrated me back then. I'm quite tired from the long drive so I'll put it on hold here and finish the other half tomorrow. Still, so far I don't see anything that would normally be considered as anti-Town. So far the impression remains unchanged (and even strengthened in hindsight) that Carradice just doesn't seem to like receiving negative input regardless of the reason, sees those as scummy and feels the need to retaliate. I suppose Trent sees that as defensive (or maybe I haven't reached the "good" part yet) but to me it seems like a "normal" trait for that person. Then again, I haven't played with Carradice ever before but I also saw that Flocke seemed to have what seemed to be an unpleasant takeaway from a previous game with them, so possibly.

Anyway, done for now. The game seems to have gassed out for the weekend anyway. Have a nice evening!
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Lifthrasil: no. Not directly fishing, just teasing with the slight possibility that it might have been a slip.
Well, I wasn't expecting you to just admit to it if you were Mafia. But it never occured to me faction fishing might be a thing. Well, thinking about it for town maybe, to get a better "feel for where they stand" (don't know, if that's the righ wording). Probably not that useful for Mafia though, as long as they end up the majority, right?


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Microfish_1: Has he been called on the carpet to explain this? I recall he was going to be more active this week. has this materialized?
Did you not read SPF/SMFRs posts, because you already knew he was not your Mafia partner, so: good riddance?


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ZFR: If Carradice is Town, I want to look again at Joe. A few things I didn't like about him, but I Town-read him because I thought Carradice is scum.
On the other hand, would scum hammer anyone they know is Town and is going to be dead anyway in 5 mins?
Why wouldn't Mafia hammer? Maybe try and throw suspicion off? You pointed out yourself in 210, that Mafia doesn't _have_ to do anything. Did you already forget? Or was that just to see reactions?


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Microfish_1: why not hold off the cop claim until at least L1 and then do your best to wiggle out? this way the cop is not exposed early. it is (from this late perspective) a miracle that the cop is alive
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ZFR: He claimed Cop. There is no counterclaim.
I'm not saying "Carradice is Town." I'm saying we have to make a decision. If we decide carradice is scum, we lynch today. If we decide he's town, we decide he's Town today.
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yogsloth: This is a totally closed setup right? Are we sure Town has a cop and Mafia has a roleblocker?
We don't know what Mafia has, just like we don't know what we might have left.
Supplementscene was Town Doctor. He gave Carradice a town lean and at the end stated that the OMGUS made him hard to read. Could be he protected Carradice due to him claiming Cop. We don't know if they have a strongman. Although they have to have something, if we had doctor, compulsive visitor and 1xcommuter, don't they?


Well, this
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supplementscene: If you didn't want to play you should of tapped out. You're letting your side down regarless of alignment
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SirMrFailRomp: I absolutely want to play, I just really don't like Trent and ZFR's decision to balance the wagons. Now we have a leading wagon.

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Carradice: Dude, don't do this.
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SirMrFailRomp: Then unbalance the wagons for me.

Unvote SirMrFailRomp
keeps nagging at me.
Why would ZFR (581) und Carradice (582) be okay with a possible tie, if someone they (or at least Carradice) believe to be town asks to not have that?
Are Carradice and ZFR the "worst scum team ever"?

Vote Carradice

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yogsloth: Looking at late voters on the SPF wagon
ISO'd flocke, looks good, some consistency in thought, good effort, seems fine
Are you sure you ISO'd me? Please don't try to pocket me?

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trentonlf: I am moving FlockeSchnee to my Town core and will not vote them. I like their posts and questions, they are coming from a Town mindset trying to figure out the game.
Please don't try and pocket me?

Both of you (yogsloth and trentolf) are giving me with the impression of Mafia wanting to keep the clueless one around for better chances to win.


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trentonlf: This is often a conclusion people come to, and it absolutely can be used by scum to manipulate the situation. Scum will sometimes try to distance themselves from a partner by calling them mafia and pushing for their lynch to earn Town cred if their partner is lynched and flips scum.
So, the idea I had in mind would be bussing? And distancing would be more like what ZFR and Carradice (if both are Mafia) are doing?


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trentonlf: So right now I have a two person Town core of dedo and gogtrial.
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trentonlf: 1. I believe someone is Town and I will not vote them
2. Leaning Town is someone I’m not actively looking at and would be hard pressed to vote
Hm. Those two don't seem to go well together. I know you stated "right now" in 130, but if you then never really look at them again, that's not going to change, is it?

Sorry, I will have to postpone answering questions/replying to (other) pings to tomorrow. It's way too late again.
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ZFR: If Carradice is Town, I want to look again at Joe. A few things I didn't like about him, but I Town-read him because I thought Carradice is scum.
On the other hand, would scum hammer anyone they know is Town and is going to be dead anyway in 5 mins?
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FlockeSchnee: Why wouldn't Mafia hammer? Maybe try and throw suspicion off? You pointed out yourself in 210, that Mafia doesn't _have_ to do anything. Did you already forget? Or was that just to see reactions?
That's exactly my point. They don't have to do anything, so why add their name to a Town wagon list.
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Microfish_1: In your opinion, would RB be powerful enough to help balance our confirmed crew?
One Roleblocker vs. Cop, Doc, 1-shot Commuter and maybe Tracker/Watcher? (because of the Visitor) No. I don't think that would be balanced. So maybe Scum have another PR or there is a third faction, that may be anti-town to a larger or lesser degree. The OP mentions 'anti-town factions'. So that may play a role in the game balance.

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ZFR: What I meant:
If Carradice flips scum, this points to Joe being Town not because of any support, but because on D1 when Carradice wagon was growing to 3 (while everyone else was at 1), all of a sudden Joe's wagon grew to 3 pretty quickly.
This doesn't strictly mean that everyone on Joe's wagon was scum trying to push a second wagon to protect Carradice (though it's worth looking into), but I think it does point to Joe being Town. Because no scum would allow a second scum wagon to form so quickly, unless they're the worst scum team ever.
Yes, if Carradice is scum, the theory of the wagon on Joe being a intentional derailment of the Carradice wagon gains credibility. And if Yogs flips scum, that will reflect on you, Joe and, to a lesser degree, trent. Joe's faith in Yogs may stem from knowing him as a player for a long time. Or it may stem from wanting to see him in a positive light.

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dedoporno: * On Carradice scum flip - ZFR has to be Town
* On Yog scum flip - Lift has to be Town
Not stricktly 'has to be'. But it would be cases of overly gratuitous bussing. So I would put 'ZFR is very likely Town' not 'has to be'. The same is valid from the viewpoint of all of you concerning me.

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FlockeSchnee: I still don't believe Carradice didn't read the PM.
That's interesting. Why do you believe that? Do you have any leads that he lied about his not reading?

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ZFR: First he makes a post 540, where he doesn't claim but posts in riddle: "those who were with me in the last three games, do you remember the alignments and roles that I was getting? This one was long due..."

Then he makes another post #542 with just 3 words: "In any case..."

Then he finally claims Cop post #544.

Do you see yourself doing that? Playing around and asking riddles when you have to claim an important PR and time is running out?

But that's not all, looking at the first posts he writes that "this one was long due". How does that make sense for a Cop?
For reference, his three previous roles were: Town JOAT, Neutral pseudo-"Jester" (I don't remember what the role was called, but it involved dying the same way as his sister gogtrial, which made it easy to win the Jester way by getting them both quickly lynched) and a Mafia Redirector.
Huh. Actually you have a point there. Or actually two. Claiming Cop in such a way so close to the deadline was a dangerous play. One might get the impression that Carradice delayed his claim, to reduce reaction time for Town.

The second part is even stronger. 'Long overdue' after three consecutive PRs would be Vanilla. Not another PR. But I'll wait for the reply, before considering to switch my vote.

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FlockeSchnee: Are Carradice and ZFR the "worst scum team ever"?

Vote Carradice
1. Very, very unlikely.
2. If you want to actually vote someone, you'll have to bold your vote.


@Carradice: please explain ZFR's observation about the discrepancy between 'long overdue' and 'Cop'. In what way does 'long overdue' refer to anything but Vanilla in your situation? And in what way does is refer specifically to Cop?
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dedoporno: I understand that and everything below but I just want to make sure I understand your stance re ZFR - you still have him leaning as Town but since you are being wary of him you would lynch him anyway. Is that correct?
I would be hard pressed to vote ZFR, but if it came down to voting him or no lynch I would vote him. Also, if for some one of who I thought was Town Core was about to be lynched or ZFR I would vote ZFR at that point. Unless something happens to change my view on ZFR those are probably the two scenarios I would vote for him.


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FlockeSchnee: So, the idea I had in mind would be bussing? And distancing would be more like what ZFR and Carradice (if both are Mafia) are doing?
Busing is when you are scum and you know one of your scum buddies is going to be lynched so you push for that lynch and even hammer if need be to secure it.

Distancing is when you are scum and you get into arguments with one of your partners or say you think they are scum so if someone comes back later if they are lynched you look like a Town player because of your actions towards them. You might not be pushing for their lynch, but you make it look like you highly suspect them or at least have some reservations about them. .

It's a fine line between them, and distancing can easily turn into busing.
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Lifthrasil: Not stricktly 'has to be'. But it would be cases of overly gratuitous bussing. So I would put 'ZFR is very likely Town' not 'has to be'. The same is valid from the viewpoint of all of you concerning me.
Sure but you know exactly what I mean. And I don't know about you but if that happens it will be very well "has" for me personally, unless I find out in another way, personally, that the opposite is true. Like it has been said a number of times - sometimes some assumptions have to be taken as truths if they are good enough and under the current circumstances that's the case for me. So yeah, as I said earlier:

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dedoporno: The only immediate comfortable correlations I can think tight now are:

* On Carradice scum flip - ZFR has to be Town
* On Yog scum flip - Lift has to be Town
I simultaneously like and dislike your correction...


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trentonlf: I would be hard pressed to vote ZFR, but if it came down to voting him or no lynch I would vote him. Also, if for some one of who I thought was Town Core was about to be lynched or ZFR I would vote ZFR at that point. Unless something happens to change my view on ZFR those are probably the two scenarios I would vote for him.
I see and will keep that in mind. Thanks for explaining.
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Lifthrasil: @Carradice: please explain ZFR's observation about the discrepancy between 'long overdue' and 'Cop'. In what way does 'long overdue' refer to anything but Vanilla in your situation? And in what way does is refer specifically to Cop?
It was indeed long overdue. I had been trying to avoid having to claim in this game as Town. That way, I might have used the cop checks freely. However, things were looking grim. Even if I waited, it was not going to improve. So, yes, I claimed literally minutes before the end of the game day. It exposed the cop role and therefore it was rendered useless for that game night. Such situations are a big waste. I hoped never to have to do that. But... it seems it was coming.

I do not get that vanilla thing that you mention. When do you say that I wrote "vanilla"? When I finally described my assigned role, it was very clearly written "cop".

If I eventually flip, by day or night elimination, you will find by yourself.
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Carradice: However, things were looking grim. Even if I waited, it was not going to improve. So, yes, I claimed literally minutes before the end of the game day.
I don't understand that paragraph. What wasn't going to improve even if you had waited?
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trentonlf: Feel better today and will try to be around more :-D
Nice to read this! Not so nice to see the tunnelling continuing uninterruptedly since D-1 but, seemingly, we cannot have one without the other!

@Trent: Do you have alternative options, in case your preferred bandwagon was not happening?
Bump if you feel like answering my question.
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FlockeSchnee: Why wouldn't Mafia hammer? Maybe try and throw suspicion off? You pointed out yourself in 210, that Mafia doesn't _have_ to do anything. Did you already forget? Or was that just to see reactions?
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ZFR: That's exactly my point. They don't have to do anything, so why add their name to a Town wagon list.
No, nothing changes. If a qualified majority is required, they get a mark for not hammering. If a qualified majority is not required, they would get a mark by not voting. Smart scum will be everywhere, or filling a bandwagon. Whatever but doing anything easily predictable. "Scum would never do this" will simply not work, because if it did, it would be too easy to find them, which is what they want to avoid, in the first place!



@Dedo: OBVIOUSLY not having to claim because another bandwagon took the lead. If all your questions are like this one... I do not get what you expect to get from milking this. To appear to be doing something, maybe.
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Carradice: It was indeed long overdue. I had been trying to avoid having to claim in this game as Town. That way, I might have used the cop checks freely.
Why would you avoid having to claim as Town? Were you wanting to be seen as scum? This sounds like you are scum and was trying to avoid claiming.