Posted June 25, 2019
![flubbucket](https://images.gog.com/ef6ba2d89b4529cf57a22197115b821a3d3222f091a4c385cad506fb144a0454_forum_avatar.jpg)
flubbucket
"Intoning"
Registered: Dec 2012
From Micronesia
![Bookwyrm627](https://images.gog.com/d1355e5f84031276937144dd0d53330f9b25822a2390be87bb5e993fcc472bcd_forum_avatar.jpg)
Bookwyrm627
ADD Jumping Bean
Registered: Nov 2013
From United States
Posted June 25, 2019
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/56bedbb66e3db1245520fb369d88ada22fe70a9751d7dc3ea29143dbd3fb01d6_avm.jpg)
I'd like to hear Scene's answer to my question.
I also would like to see people vote.
Also,
![Bookwyrm627](https://images.gog.com/d1355e5f84031276937144dd0d53330f9b25822a2390be87bb5e993fcc472bcd_forum_avatar.jpg)
Bookwyrm627
ADD Jumping Bean
Registered: Nov 2013
From United States
![PookaMustard](https://images.gog.com/5629b6d77e23e4d3650fc24909f4cad930e125ead4001c435823c326537031d8_forum_avatar.jpg)
PookaMustard
モニカ。モニカだけ。
Registered: Jun 2013
From Other
Posted June 25, 2019
Right, I keep forgetting things.
trentonlf: I know my activity this game has not been the best and I apologize, but it will not get any better over the next few days. My oldest daughter Grace who just finished the chemo a couple of months ago will be getting married on Sunday so I will be pretty busy until then. Going to be a great weekend :-D Sorry I was this late, but congratulations to the both of you! Hope she leads a fruitful life!
----
I forgot what else to respond to...
If I could vote scene and micro at once, I would. But it's probably a coin toss at this moment. Micro has a vote and scene has a vote. Voting either brings them to L-3...but we've brought scene close to L-2 before and learned more about him from then. Micro is still a bit of unknown territory and to be honest, I don't like his play at the moment, for reasons I mentioned earlier
Also, unfinished sentence.
JoeSapphire: AHA I found it. It was Pooka's alarm that supplementscene's wagon grew to 5 strong in a short space of time early Day 1.
You remember? And then he warned blotunga off it, and blotunga stepped back and then we all lunched blotunga and it turned out blotunga was town and Joe was wrong? And then SirP and Carr got shot. Ah those were simpler times... Well, and I was the only one to see that blotunga's play seemed more town!blotunga-like than scene's shenanigans...
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/3db5274bc7d72b08e6d338b0516da836b2b27b7294de686130b6b2c01a74c8a7_avm.jpg)
----
I forgot what else to respond to...
If I could vote scene and micro at once, I would. But it's probably a coin toss at this moment. Micro has a vote and scene has a vote. Voting either brings them to L-3...but we've brought scene close to L-2 before and learned more about him from then. Micro is still a bit of unknown territory and to be honest, I don't like his play at the moment, for reasons I mentioned earlier
Also, unfinished sentence.
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/56bedbb66e3db1245520fb369d88ada22fe70a9751d7dc3ea29143dbd3fb01d6_avm.jpg)
You remember? And then he warned blotunga off it, and blotunga stepped back and then we all lunched blotunga and it turned out blotunga was town and Joe was wrong? And then SirP and Carr got shot. Ah those were simpler times...
![PookaMustard](https://images.gog.com/5629b6d77e23e4d3650fc24909f4cad930e125ead4001c435823c326537031d8_forum_avatar.jpg)
PookaMustard
モニカ。モニカだけ。
Registered: Jun 2013
From Other
Posted June 25, 2019
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/391f366a068493c20eecb2037002c295d63725a0ec60cc44fed949b35ef7ca85_avm.jpg)
Old Joe's Town Meter:
MOST TOWNY
^
Gogtrial
SupplementScene
Bookwyrm
Trent
Dedo
Microfish
Flub
Pooka
v
LEAST TOWNY
New Joe's Town Meter:
MOST TOWNY
^
Gogtrial
SupplementScene
Dedo
Pooka
Bookwyrm
Trent
Microfish
Flub
v
LEAST TOWNY
Okay, it appears that trent dropped because dedo and I rised up the ranks. Joe says dedo raised up because "he'll trust dedo's read." I assume he's referring to this post by dedo.
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/56bedbb66e3db1245520fb369d88ada22fe70a9751d7dc3ea29143dbd3fb01d6_avm.jpg)
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/5dc227f1d34bd2b679052c7031fc634387169fe9cf232b2fa7d91c9bc03c19b5_avm.jpg)
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/56bedbb66e3db1245520fb369d88ada22fe70a9751d7dc3ea29143dbd3fb01d6_avm.jpg)
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/5dc227f1d34bd2b679052c7031fc634387169fe9cf232b2fa7d91c9bc03c19b5_avm.jpg)
That being said, I'm still pretty sure he's Town.
JOESAPPHIRE!!1!!!! EXPLAIN THIS MESS!!1!!!1
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/391f366a068493c20eecb2037002c295d63725a0ec60cc44fed949b35ef7ca85_avm.jpg)
Also, hang on a sec.
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/5dc227f1d34bd2b679052c7031fc634387169fe9cf232b2fa7d91c9bc03c19b5_avm.jpg)
Did I walk into the wrong universe?[/i]
![flubbucket](https://images.gog.com/ef6ba2d89b4529cf57a22197115b821a3d3222f091a4c385cad506fb144a0454_forum_avatar.jpg)
flubbucket
"Intoning"
Registered: Dec 2012
From Micronesia
![gogtrial34987](https://images.gog.com/0f27ee8ce35869e04252cfa60ee7a73018c48278928fb10ee5b4e1152251a5a6_forum_avatar.jpg)
gogtrial34987
Go for the eyes!
Registered: Dec 2013
From Netherlands
Posted June 25, 2019
*looks in*
Yay for town doing way more damage to ourselves than mafia is capable of. The day frustrates, but the results of these nights amuse me!
Going to be catching up now.
FYI: Real life is making me be much less present than I'd prefer to be. Keeping a close eye to see how bad it gets (nothing truly bad irl - just a lot of it to deal with); I really hope I can avoid having to ask for a replacement.
Yay for town doing way more damage to ourselves than mafia is capable of. The day frustrates, but the results of these nights amuse me!
Going to be catching up now.
FYI: Real life is making me be much less present than I'd prefer to be. Keeping a close eye to see how bad it gets (nothing truly bad irl - just a lot of it to deal with); I really hope I can avoid having to ask for a replacement.
![trentonlf](https://images.gog.com/3db5274bc7d72b08e6d338b0516da836b2b27b7294de686130b6b2c01a74c8a7_forum_avatar.jpg)
trentonlf
Easily amused
Registered: Apr 2014
From United States
![dedoporno](https://images.gog.com/5dc227f1d34bd2b679052c7031fc634387169fe9cf232b2fa7d91c9bc03c19b5_forum_avatar.jpg)
dedoporno
A bloody pirate!
Registered: Apr 2012
From Bulgaria
Posted June 25, 2019
I'm here. I'm catching up quickly and then I'll share what I was considering in the past couple of days.
![gogtrial34987](https://images.gog.com/0f27ee8ce35869e04252cfa60ee7a73018c48278928fb10ee5b4e1152251a5a6_forum_avatar.jpg)
gogtrial34987
Go for the eyes!
Registered: Dec 2013
From Netherlands
Posted June 25, 2019
Catching up from way back when:
dedoporno: I told Joe himself that I prefer to consider him as Town when he asked if I think his lynch would be a mislynch when GR was ready to vote for him. He felt different before when he was scum. Ah, that is true, and I'd missed that as a "read" (despite noticing it from Joe's PoV due to it being the source of his trust for you).
Quote for reference:
Still, "I'd like to think that" isn't exactly the strong town read which I interpreted your "don't want to vote" as. Is that just a matter of me not correctly interpreting your meaning (quite possible!), or were you deliberately trying to keep your reads vague so you could claim them either way as the game progresses? (Something for us all to ponder.)
Combined with two instances of you not wanting to repeat yourself...
dedoporno: Also, I can't say I appreciate the fact that you are painting my original stance on blotunga as piggybacking just because I wasn't on it first. Do I have to apologize about joining the game almost 3 days after it started and things had already happened? The "piggybacking" I am thinking I'm seeing is not your "stance on" blotunga in itself, but the way you first expressed reasoning for it way after the fact (#226), by echoing someone else (though the fact that you echoed Joe doesn't work with my suspicion of the two of you being a team). This echoing happened two days after you joined the game.
Still, insofar as you genuinely feel that I'm unfairly accusing you of something that is a direct cause of joining late, I did not think I was doing so, and you have my apologies.
gogtrial34987: A town full roleblocker only requires a single B to be rolled out of 7 dice. Vig needs VV, Cop needs CC. The chance for either of those is smaller than the chance for B.
That means that for full roles, doctor (and innocent child) are likeliest, then roleblocker, then cop, then vig. Btw, did this explanation from me make sense to you? I'm kinda asking because your thinking (expanded in the quote below, as flub only put in the dots) was the cause for flub moving his vote back, but I still see that thinking as wrong:
dedoporno: The Town Roleblocker role has the smallest chance of being drawn in the first place.
.................
If scum is going to claim a full power role the risk of getting counter-claimed by the same full role is the smallest for the blocker.
flubbucket: This really makes the most sense. I'll not bow to pressure.
Unvote: JoeSapphire
Vote: GameRager I see your reasoning as faulty. Flub uses your reasoning to re-vote GR. Did flub not (want to?) see where it was faulty?
Something to check up on: Does flub always trim his quotes quite so strongly?
Bookwyrm627: Also, have you considered who SPF interacted with in a pro-active manner, as opposed to only a reactive manner? Were there players that SPF addressed only because they addressed him first? That question goes for both this game and the other game. I didn't pay too much attention to this for the point of speaking to fellow mafia, since I believe(d?) the non-avoidance would go both ways (I deliberately skipped noting it in my original roundup at the start of D2), but yes, I did pay attention to it when re-reading everyone's individual interactions with SPF later on.
gogtrial34987: I have this habit of thinking around too many corners when I'm too involved. Need to take a step back and go for the simplest solution.
Bookwyrm627: Hi Bler! *g* When I first joined mafia, bler's performance in Oakwood was my inspiration, which I tried to emulate somewhat. Glad to hear that I've arrived. :)
Bookwyrm627: Hey Dedo, we've talked a fair bit here on D2. I have a question for you.
Do you have a trap in mind? Any intent to clarify this?
supplementscene: He seems scummy from loads of his posts. He has claimed a role that there's a 95% probability isn't in the game. I know hindsight is difficult, but would you have voted GR if you'd properly understood that there was a 30% chance that it was in the game?
You said in #688 that you would "look at [your] vote again" if someone could direct you to it (which happened), but never showed up anymore before EoD.
JoeSapphire: Well I was all prepared to begin this day by voting without giving any other statement and then when asked to explain my vote just quote bookwyrm telling me blahblahblahblah and that the time for words has ended but if I did that in response to that Dawn then you'd all start thinking that I know more than I do about it. Any thoughts on flub seemingly concluding the opposite of what you appear to be claiming here?
supplementscene: Why has Joe's wagon grown so fast? I was clearly in favour of it yesterday and it seems convenient 2 players have jumped on it today with discussing my speculation. Interestingly the 2 players who are on this wagon also came into hammer our Roleblocker. I know I did 2 and that's hypocritical because I believe Town should be responsible enough to hammer but why did they only come in at the end? I will go back and re-read. I like the question you start with.
Given your reread, could you do a most-to-least scummy list from your PoV?
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/5dc227f1d34bd2b679052c7031fc634387169fe9cf232b2fa7d91c9bc03c19b5_avm.jpg)
Quote for reference:
Still, "I'd like to think that" isn't exactly the strong town read which I interpreted your "don't want to vote" as. Is that just a matter of me not correctly interpreting your meaning (quite possible!), or were you deliberately trying to keep your reads vague so you could claim them either way as the game progresses? (Something for us all to ponder.)
Combined with two instances of you not wanting to repeat yourself...
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/5dc227f1d34bd2b679052c7031fc634387169fe9cf232b2fa7d91c9bc03c19b5_avm.jpg)
Still, insofar as you genuinely feel that I'm unfairly accusing you of something that is a direct cause of joining late, I did not think I was doing so, and you have my apologies.
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/987d06d75554e2e66bd69e6508e74db5b40eed6098900ccc43a7b47f6c7d7ca1_avm.jpg)
That means that for full roles, doctor (and innocent child) are likeliest, then roleblocker, then cop, then vig.
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/5dc227f1d34bd2b679052c7031fc634387169fe9cf232b2fa7d91c9bc03c19b5_avm.jpg)
.................
If scum is going to claim a full power role the risk of getting counter-claimed by the same full role is the smallest for the blocker.
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/039a6a1a2b191a39686f0634fa7a450a199d1a95d58823f08fdcfe1a73ca5405_avm.jpg)
Unvote: JoeSapphire
Vote: GameRager
Something to check up on: Does flub always trim his quotes quite so strongly?
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/391f366a068493c20eecb2037002c295d63725a0ec60cc44fed949b35ef7ca85_avm.jpg)
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/987d06d75554e2e66bd69e6508e74db5b40eed6098900ccc43a7b47f6c7d7ca1_avm.jpg)
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/391f366a068493c20eecb2037002c295d63725a0ec60cc44fed949b35ef7ca85_avm.jpg)
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/391f366a068493c20eecb2037002c295d63725a0ec60cc44fed949b35ef7ca85_avm.jpg)
Do you have a trap in mind?
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/ee900e78482f47c01b6b7c8d18a5da0e9721b168baebdf9a563e76809f93057a_avm.jpg)
You said in #688 that you would "look at [your] vote again" if someone could direct you to it (which happened), but never showed up anymore before EoD.
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/56bedbb66e3db1245520fb369d88ada22fe70a9751d7dc3ea29143dbd3fb01d6_avm.jpg)
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/ee900e78482f47c01b6b7c8d18a5da0e9721b168baebdf9a563e76809f93057a_avm.jpg)
Given your reread, could you do a most-to-least scummy list from your PoV?
![Lifthrasil](https://images.gog.com/e2259851c6e86609b166b01345176fdc7b1fed6147789a7fb8042dc24095c8da_forum_avatar.jpg)
Lifthrasil
Bring the GOG-Downloader back!
Registered: Apr 2011
From Germany
![dedoporno](https://images.gog.com/5dc227f1d34bd2b679052c7031fc634387169fe9cf232b2fa7d91c9bc03c19b5_forum_avatar.jpg)
dedoporno
A bloody pirate!
Registered: Apr 2012
From Bulgaria
Posted June 26, 2019
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/685acd830622f558ea3676a026c872673a829fdcd8fee75b46251a2cbcc00478_avm.jpg)
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/56bedbb66e3db1245520fb369d88ada22fe70a9751d7dc3ea29143dbd3fb01d6_avm.jpg)
You meant to say "JoeSapphire and flubbucket do NOT make me feel secure regarding their towniness.", right?
OK, all caught up. So,
PREVIOUSLY ON MAFIA
We had these two mislynch wagons so far:
blotunga - JoeSapphire, Flub, dedoporno, Bookwyrm, SirPrimalform, scene, trent
GameRager - Pooka, Flub, dedo, scene, Micro, Bookwyrm (+ Joe)
The people who were on both of these wagons are:
Flub, dedo, Wyrm, Scene, (Joe - technically he wasn't on the second one but for all intents and purposes should be counted in it as I've been told he did cross-vote with Wyrm for the hammer)
The people who were on none of these wagons are:
gogtrial
People who were on the first wagon but didn't join the second:
Trent, Joe (but not really)
People who weren't on the first wagon but joined the second:
Pooka, Micro
The scum took a very heavy blow on the first night. Not only they lost one of their own but they also didn't manage to decrease the Town numbers. Depending on how many scum players we currently have they might be less or more obligated to join each and every Town wagon they can.
I really don't see gogtrial skipping both wagons if he is scum. If he is, his scumbuddy has to be very well hidden and a whole lot of people have to be Town-reading him for gogtrial to afford to stay away from pushing a "good" Town wagon and keeping his hands clean for some future moment.
I already have had him as Town during pretty much the whole game so I feel it's pretty safe to keep assuming that.
I don't see lone scum Trent (or any lone scum really) skipping the second wagon as he just doesn't have enough time to dilly-dally. Obviously the scum can't even rely on night kills so they'll probably get even more desperate as days go by.
I've had Trent leaning Town in the past days because he feels like town!Trent even though some of his back and forth with Scene doesn't make sense a whole lot of sense to me.
On the other hand if it's not a lone scum it's quite possible the mafia decided to swap places so it doesn't get too obvious being on all Town wagons so far. If I am fooled and Trent might actually be scum his buddy probably isn't Joe but may be among one of the new voters Pooka and Micro.
Something to note here (if Wyrm is to be trusted on this) is that him and Joe didn't exactly cross-vote and Joe's redundant hammer came later. This may or may not have been on purpose and to serve some purpose. I'm too tired to think about possibilities on how that would benefit scum!Joe.
If there are 2 scum and the above assumption is correct (alternating scum on each wagon) I'm more inclined to believe that it's Joe + Pooka or Micro.
I've been reading Pooka mostly as Town so far as most of his posts and observations resonate positively with me and he seems to be trying to figure out what's going on but can't discard the possibility of being wrong and placing too much trust in him.
Then there is Micro - he is a lot more confusing to me. I've played a couple of games with him and I never can get a good read on him and too often end up surprised when he finally shows up to share some thoughts. Maybe we are just too different, I don't know. To be honest the only thing that is making me consider Micro as more Town than scum at the moment is his big post where he got frustrated with Scene which felt genuine. Normally I don't trust such AtE posts and even frown at them but when it's done by a newer players (which I still consider Micro to be) it may actually be real.
If there is only one scum this is pretty much where the suspect list starts - with Joe, Pooka and Micro.
Finally we arrive to the easy part - players who were on both mislynches - there has to be scum here. Maybe not all of the scum are here but there has to be at least one. There is just no way there isn't.
That's me, Wyrm, Scene and Flub.
I know I'm not it and I'm pretty sure it's not Wyrm either.
That leaves Scene and Flub. One of them is not like the other - Scene has been off pretty much from the start of the game with continuous weird choices, statements and accusations but the annoying part is that this isn't automatically AI in his case. It may be either way. I'm pretty torn on him as it's a very easy choice but at the same time it's a very easy choice. Can it be that easy? For a few days now I have been pondering over the idea that he has been intentionally playing in the way he did to bait a Cop investigation and continue unchecked as a Godfather but wouldn't that be pushing it a bit too far? It could backfire so easy unless of course he counts on people giving him a pass because they would expect that type of behavior as Town.
Flub on the other hand only started to feel weird Yesterday (some others shared concerns earlier on but I haven't really seen it). He might be the lone scum who doesn't have time to play games but the same time I'm not sure if he'll make the effort even if that is the case.
Based on all of that I'd say the remaining scum is among the following (in order of most likely to least likely and in sets):
1 or 2 scum left, top priorities
- Scene
- Flub
- Joe
- Micro
- Pooka
2 scum left, reserves
- Joe
- Trent
I don't see the rest being scum. If someone is they are playing a very dangerous and bold game, they have fooled me and get a tip of the hat regardless of the final outcome of the game.
![dedoporno](https://images.gog.com/5dc227f1d34bd2b679052c7031fc634387169fe9cf232b2fa7d91c9bc03c19b5_forum_avatar.jpg)
dedoporno
A bloody pirate!
Registered: Apr 2012
From Bulgaria
Posted June 26, 2019
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/987d06d75554e2e66bd69e6508e74db5b40eed6098900ccc43a7b47f6c7d7ca1_avm.jpg)
The same applies logic applies the other way around too. There are people I have on the positive list which I wouldn't want to vote but in case I really must (like early days no-lynch) I would.
In all instances I can't be certain about anyone other than myself or based on my own personal information so I can't be put concrete trust on anyone.
You are not incorrect to question it but I doubt you'll find anyone who would say "I know that he is Town" or "I know that he is scum" with certainty without having exclusive knowledge on the matter. Well, maybe there is one such instance but that was obviously a false positive so yeah.
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/987d06d75554e2e66bd69e6508e74db5b40eed6098900ccc43a7b47f6c7d7ca1_avm.jpg)
![avatar](http://images.gog.com/987d06d75554e2e66bd69e6508e74db5b40eed6098900ccc43a7b47f6c7d7ca1_avm.jpg)
Still, insofar as you genuinely feel that I'm unfairly accusing you of something that is a direct cause of joining late, I did not think I was doing so, and you have my apologies.
I probably didn't understand correctly what you were referring to, so there is no need to apologize.
Is this a question for me? Even if it isn't I'm only going to say that he may have seen things in the same way I did. So I can't blame him for that alone. What is more noteworthy is that this seemed to be enough and as I said before I didn't even mean it to be some massive condemning clue - it was just a small point to make note of.
![ZFR](https://images.gog.com/8d7a9f712d0a0e0f7c0ba66102e81933a36652ad0a2a17b9bc4734d717abd952_forum_avatar.jpg)
ZFR
I love gold!
Registered: Jan 2010
From Ireland
![flubbucket](https://images.gog.com/ef6ba2d89b4529cf57a22197115b821a3d3222f091a4c385cad506fb144a0454_forum_avatar.jpg)
flubbucket
"Intoning"
Registered: Dec 2012
From Micronesia