Microfish_1: Please answer.
I've already answered while posting to GH above.
Microfish_1: And if Blotunga is town? What does this say about NMillar, or others?
If Blotunga is town, then process of elimination indicates he might actually be right about NMillar, and we may be in trouble trying to find the second scum.
Microfish_1: So you're going for the most likely to be scum partner, if not the most blatant at being scum?
Foremost, I want to hit scum. Failing that, I want a high information lynch. If Blotunga somehow flips Town, we can reevaluate the wagons.
Microfish_1: So I did that excercise you stated (from memory) and in no particular order (just as the thoughts came to mind):
Have you seen those logic puzzles where there are (as an example) 5 people, 5 professions, 5 favorite colors, and 5 favorite foods, and you are given a set of clues ("Bob doesn't like Red") to help you figure out which one is associated with each of the others? One tool for solving those puzzles is figuring out what pieces are
not associated.
It isn't perfect in a human game like this, since people can make strange leaps of logic, deliberately make odd moves to add to confusion, or simply make mistakes.
As an example, pretend that Blotunga and I are the scum team. What does this mean happened? Blotunga switched off GH to Lift in attempt to get a mislynch with NMillar; this makes sense. This also means that Blotunga is pushing a lynch on a townie with a large degree of success (Pooka, Catte, and GH are all town and all on board thus far). If this succeeds, the two of us simply need one more mislynch to win. Scum!wyrm could "accept" his arguments and ride my expressed D2 suspicion to join that lynch and get that 5th vote for the mislynch, or I could simply wait it out in case the plan blows up on Blotunga somehow.
What actually happened? I try to turn suspicion toward Blotunga and disable the NMillar lynch, putting both of us under the spotlight. Is working against our win condition worth the effort for some WIFOM that people might not buy?
The answer is "no", and the conclusion is that while maybe Blotunga is scum or Wyrm is scum, it is unlikely to be both of them, so if one flips Scum the other is somewhat cleared. Blotunga's play doesn't make much sense from a Blotunga/NMillar team, but Wyrm's play does make some sense from a Wyrm/NMillar team.
This is what I'm talking about when temporarily adding labels to players and seeing who is doing what from the position of those labels. Sometimes looking for groups is easier, sometimes looking for the one is easier. And yes, sometimes it really is scum doing something for WIFOM.
Microfish_1: Still uneasy (more so?) with how Bookwyrm let Lift do the talking for him early days now that we know lift is town. Much easier to let town post and then go "I concur" than making up new info.
That's true, except for the part where I didn't make up new info. Reread NMillar's D1 posts, then reread mine. You should be able to see a huge difference. I offered my own opinions, made my lists, and very importantly, indicated why I thought what I did. Sometimes I just pointed at someone else and said "I concur", but that isn't the sum total of my posting. There were a lot of things I wanted to say that Lift simply said first; entire post sections were deleted because he already said it and I didn't feel the need to clutter the thread.