No. That's the problem. It won't be. If you really are Town, scum might gamble to leave you alive, risking another investigation. By your own reasoning, if you are alive on Day 3, you would have to be lynched (and by extension, whatever read you get can't be trusted). But if you are Town, that would be an automatic mis-lynch. At LYLO, that would be game over. Therefore it is in the interest of Town to confirm your alignment. Therefore, if you are Town, it is paradoxically even in your own interest to get confirmed via flip, since every Townie wins when Town wins. Even if they are dead.

If you flip Town, I'll be dead too, probably (unless scum want to paint me as GF). But still I say that confirming your alignment via flip is necessary for Town. Everything else is just too dangerous.

So, Lift and ZFR (ZFR-conditionally, but more than not) want Pooka lunched.
Trent is asking questions, but not saying much of anything of his own views.
Book voted Pooka,
Red hasn't voted yet day or voiced his overall feeling. I know you is new to GOG mafia, but what are your thoughts? I see you making a lot of statements, about scenarios others draw up, but please share your opinions as-is (as-are?)
Pooka ain't voting himself.
2 of those listed above are scum, the rest are not. Pooka is either the cop or is mafia.

What are the odds that a player (In this case Pooka) is scum 2 games in a row?

Book, Red, I want your opinions on the latest developments and arguments, specifically re ZFR's 4-scenario setup and since then.
Trent, what are your thoughts?

All--what about ZFR? Is he scum or town?
Red, your list of "most-to-least townie" (towniest-to-scummiest?) please. The same goes for the rest of you. If we're gonna end this day before the dedline, I want our thougthts down on hardtack (or paper if you prefer) ahead of time. Just in case.

I should be in bed, as I need to go to the doc in a few hours; therefore, my list is not thoroughly thought out yet. However, here is its present form (off the top of my head, based on feelings as much as proof):

Town
Flub
Gamerager
Micro

Red
Trent
Book
Lift

Pooka
ZFR
Scum

Do we postpone the vote a few more days just to see what happens? What slips in convo occur? We have 3 days (at least).

I can't do it without knowing Pooka's alignemnt.

If he flips scum:

Bookwyrm gets Town points for being on his case when he wasn't under fire. Same for trent. Micro gets Town points (unless Pooka flips Godfather). Not sure about Lift. Hopefully real cop gets useful info.
If he flips Town:
Lift gets town points (Godfather notwithstanding), Micro gets major scum points.

Red: would like more thoughts from him. I'm wondering now if my town read on him is wrong and he's a newbie caught in a scum role trying to keep a low profile.

Vote Count

PookaMustard - 3 votes (Bookwyrm627, ZFR, Lifthrasil)
ZFR - 2 vote (Microfish_1, PookaMustard)

Not voting: RedFireGaming, trentonlf

PookaMustard is closest to lynch, at L-1.

With 7 players, 4 is a majority.

The deadline is approximately 3 days from now.

If Pooka should flip Town, ZFR and Bookwyrm would get scumpoints.

If he flips scum, Micro gets scum-points. He repeatedly listed him as suspect, but still goes along with his reasoning too easily (e.g. Post 298) and never once voted him. When things got hot for Pooka, Micro tentatively supported him (again, Post 298 and Post 306), says that what Pooka says 'rings true' - but still has him as top suspect together with ZFR in his list. To me that looks a bit like 'distancing with words, while trying not to condemn a scum-buddy'


But apart from everything else, it really irks me that several players are so silent. I know that's the pot calling the kettles black, but this game is really made more difficult by the slow pace and the repeated absence of some of us.

Don't you think scum!micro would be happily bussing scum!Pooka instead of tentatively supporting him? The only reason I see this bussing not taking place is if Pooka is Godfather, the only useful role against our cop, and Micro is hesitant to let him go.

Finally have some time to catch up and see what I've missed.

Micro is quite new. Perhaps he isn't that keen on bussing yet. I remember that I was very reluctant to bus team-mates when I was scum for the first time.

I agree with Lift in that if Pooka and Micro are scum together that Micro is hesitant to bus a team mate.

I'm not set on Pooka being scum though, I'm still trying to wrap my head around why he would claim Cop if he's not. The only thing I can come up with is he is hoping we don't lynch him and we mislynch a townie and that puts us at MYLO. So tomorrow when he's still alive we will still be unsure if he's the Cop or scum, and at that point it would be a tougher call to lynch him because it could be a scum ploy to leave him alive for a mislynch.

So with that scenario in mind I've been trying to wrap my head around if he would do that as scum or not because there's not another scenario that makes much more sense than that if Pooka is scum. So for me the question comes down to if I believe him or not, and I'm not sure yet.

Let's say you're scum about to get lynched. You're dead either way, what do you claim?

You can only claim VT or cop. If you claim VT, you get lynched. So claiming Cop seems the only logical thing to do; worst case, you die anyway but maybe at least you get real cop to counter claim? Either way you have nothing to lose.


However, I'm agree, especially given recent posts, that it is possible Pooka is cop as he says.
I'm NOT going the "if I survive N2, then lynch me D3" route. That, as Lift explained too, is not going to work.

But I'm willing to to hard-read Pooka as Town and discuss from there.

So, assume Pooka is Town.

Scum points for Bookwyrm? Not really. Sure he was the first who voted Pooka, but why wouldn't Town!Bookwyrm do it. He had valid reasons.
Lift? He was cleared by Cop Pooka (barring Godfather). And I see nothing scummy coming from him.

So... what would a mafioso do if he sees Pooka about to get lynched? Do his best to get away from the wagon.
Anyone doing that. 2 people: Micro and trent.
Basically, Pooka is in deep crap. And as Lift (and Pooka) noted, if Pooka turns town, those on his wagon (Bookwyrm and myself) get scum points. But real scum are not stupid so as not to know that. ergo, they would get off Pooka's wagon.

If we hardread Pooka as town, I'm going to vote for trent or Micro. In that order.

I'm getting some cognitive dissonance here. Your words make sense, but after years of pushing for us not to wait until deadline (including hosting multiple games where the deadline is somewhat uncertain), I wouldn't expect those words from you.

My understanding is that breadcrumbing is done by players to drop hints about something, usually their role (they'd just say it if it was a matter of suspicion or something). Townies will do this (usually PRs, possibly vanillas), and scum trying to pose as townies (usually town PRs) will do this.

I'm mean, what sort of scum is going to breadcrumb that they are scum? I suppose I could see it in a game where there's a scum that isn't connected to the mafia team yet, but not in the setup we're playing right now.

The problem with winning as scum: no one ever trusts you again.

Uh...

I have been deeply concerned that I've been tunneling because I'm only seeing Pooka and Lift as likely scum candidates.

I'm not sure whether to thank you for broadening my horizons.

This is actually one of the few Pooka statements that hasn't screamed "KILL ME I'M SCUM!".

It might make more sense if I rephrase it a little: "Don't spend an investigation on a guy [ZFR, in this case] who is going to die anyway."

I keep thinking about what to say, and I keep running up against the same wall: everything said is available for scum to read, too.

I know this might be frustrating for you, but everything (generic) you says when you're suspected scum is going to be mistrusted. "Is he now trying to fish for reads so mafia know who to kill for best results?"

In your current circumstance, if another player has been breadcrumbing cop then you're screwed regardless of alignment (you're too suspicious and they've prepped better than you did). A lack of breadcrumbs has no effect on the case against you.

For breadcrumbing in general:
It depends on the player, the role, the breadcrumbs, and the provided reasoning. If you don't breadcrumb, then you can't point back to anything to say "I'm not just making this up right now and here's my proof." Just like any evidence, poor quality breadcrumbs might work against you.

On the other hand, if you don't breadcrumb then there isn't anything for your opponents to find and know whether/why to kill you.

Really?

Irrelevant. The probability of each event is not linked in any fashion.

I think most of the scenarios presented are missing some things. Also, see above about that wall.

Maybe, but the impression I've had was that Micro was doing some work to dismantle Pooka's lynch.

-----

Pooka's posting has been atrociously scummy, however I'm still chewing over potential scenarios.

For the moment, I think this might be the better play.
Unvote Pooka
It is easier to revote than to unlynch.

I've culled several responses to Pooka posts for the sake of not giving you people a bunch of extra things to read, but I'll save the responses in case someone really wants to know. For the record, the posts in question are 264, 269, 271, and 303 (sort of).

Ok, I'm finally here.
I started the day out reading Pooka as town. Then came his responses to scum accusations, which made most of his past posts stop making sense and ended the "rational, analytical town" impression I got from him. After last night's arguments, I think that lynch is the best option whether he's town or scum. I held off my vote because I didn't want to cut off Trent's response, (because of his wait and see argument) but with Wyrm unvoting I can express my stance.

Vote Pooka

Now to examine the remaining players
If Pooka is Scum:
1) ZFR and Wyrm are probably not scum
2) Micro and I are both on the table, since we've both sided with Pooka
If Pooka is Town Cop:
1) Lift looks like town. Not only because of the investigation, but from his posting behaviour.
Regardless:
1) Trent's switch from ZFR (At first the expected D1 lynch) to Pooka (Who appeared to be the likely D2 lynch since
D1) with no reasoning provided looks scummy.

Typing it out helped get the swirl in my head to settle down.
----------

If Pooka survives to D3:
-He's almost certain to be CC'd.
'->If he's town, scum will either NK or CC him. Exception: He's so off target that they don't care about him (or WIFOM to this end).
'--->Issue?: Scum can pick which of them will CC him. They'll pick their best.

'->If Pooka is scum, he'll get CC'd on D3 either by the real cop or by the cop's corpse.
'--->Assuming worst case scenario (D2 mislynch), that's the latest that the real cop could afford to wait before claiming.

'->If he reports a Town result, we know at least one of his claimed targets have to be town (possibly both; we don't know).
'--->If he's town, only one scum can be GF. If he's scum, there is only one other scum he could 'investigate'.

'->If he reports a Scum result, we know that at least one of Pooka or his report are scum.
'--->This does NOT say that only one of them is scum! Scum!Pooka could report a scum result on his scum buddy.

Obviously, if Pooka is NK'd then he's town.

As much as his play pains me, I think the mechanical answer is to lynch someone besides Pooka on D2. This seems to give us the most information via grouping players if Pooka lives, and it gives us a chance to hit scum if Pooka is somehow town. If Pooka is scum, we're more likely to mislynch but we can still hit his scum buddy.

Regardless, if we don't lynch Pooka then we should decide whether Pooka should claim his information first or whether he should wait for the CC (or for everyone to forgo a CC). I'm inclined to say he should go first.

This is a logical fallacy.

(not(p) -> q) DOES NOT EQUAL TO (p xor q)

(ScumZFR wouldn't bus ScumPooka) could still mean (both ZFR and Pooka are town).