Intelligent, but wow can you get convoluted sometimes (no offense). I wonder if other people feel this way when I'm trying to explain things sometimes. Actually, I think I figured out the problem. You say "In that scenario, since I would know..." and that is what throws the whole meaning of the sentence out of whack. Yeah, that works massively better with "wouldn't" in there.

Your conclusion makes too many assumptions: mind reading being done by Role Cops, mafia not investigating their own, and third party not scanning mafia.

Lets see if anyone is going to comment on the "town points" equivalent used here.

Hmm. Has someone talked about how to push lurkers into participating? Anyone at all? :P
Yes, I've been distinctly less active during Day 3 before today. Would you say I've also been less active during Day 1 and Day 2? I remember being on the "losing" end of some debate during Day 1, and providing analysis during Day 2.

I've already posted my thoughts on No Lynch a little while ago. Until I reached that point, Leonard was at the top of my list. After reaching that point, JMich sprang to the top so fast it made my head spin. He's stayed under cover until late game before, dropping hints and trying to gently push ideas in the direction he wants them to go. His managing to be doctor and scum at the same time broke my faith in him a few games back. :(
I seriously thought about voting for him at the end of that post with my No Lynch analysis, but decided to finish reading the thread first.

I acknowledge my Day 3 play before today has been pretty light, and given my reasons. Does your comment here apply to Day 1 and Day 2 as well, or just the more recent Day 3?

This helped me notice something else: Lift pulls his vote from Bler, then asks about other player's scum candidates. He doesn't, however, name his own. Interesting.

-743: Dedo sums up quite well my concerns with Leonard's post 741.

-754: Oh wow, I made this post. 9 hrs ago. Still not caught up to where I started posting tonight. x.x

Maybe this is just because of the timing, and I'm reading all the posts one after another hours/days later, but it looked to me like you were okay with him spilling his track result.

-761: Is this...the last page? Am I nearly done? :O

(%#&@*%($@&%*($@U
Reading, making some remarks, then got distracted. Come back, hit reply, and realize I hadn't transferred the latest updates to my Notepad file. *head desk, head desk*
DEDO! GIVE UNTO ME THE LAZARUS!

-Not in the mood to rewrite the joke about Hijack and girls. Dedo already answered the piggy-backing question. +1 to Leonard and Bler for different jokes.

Oh, what the heck. So far this game, I am unaware of any visitors I may have had.

*snort* "If all of you rebels would nicely walk into this wooden pallisade here, we'll talk about your demands. Yes, that's right, just come right on in."

-And wow, I'm caught up. Yay! Refresh didn't show anything else! Note to self: do NOT fall behind again.

Finally, I see no reason to hold this vote any longer.

Vote JMich.

Shit shit shit. I do know something useful. Just now put the pieces together. I suspected CSP and Lift both, but there’s an exchange between them that looks innocuous at first blush until you have the missing piece. And I only went back and found it now.

But first look at the overall pattern:

Lift and CSP
CSP in a nutshell:

#12: Asks Hijack for list of 3 scummiest
14: Repeats request of Hijack
52: Asks JMich for list of 3 scummiest
*72: Addresses why he asked for lists
(not much in between- some minor observations of fact)
372: Most interesting list: Bler, Wyrm, Hijack, Flub. Casts a wide net but won’t commit to anyone.
512 Questions Trent, doesn’t get on. Also casts doubt on Hijack’s suggestion that the game might have telekinesis. Seems minor at the time but may be something to it.
515: Comes around to why telekinesis might be feasible, if “oddly specific.”
680: Asks why I voted then unvoted Lift even though my post explains why I’m taking the vote off the board, but not changing my target.
738: Raises suspicion of me for going through his pack. Might be some irony there. In response to Lift mentions no lynch but expresses regret we might do it. Names his top 4 most suspicious: Bler, Wyrm, Hijack, Leonard. Casts a wide net but won’t commit to anyone. Very helpful to pick a top 4 most suspicious at this stage in the game. Notable overlap with list from #372. On bright side, no longer finds Flub suspicious.
771: Wants to know what I know before he’ll make a claim.

As I can tell he doesn’t even mention Lift by name or respond to him until post 680.
By comparison, by post 150 he’d mentioned: Trent/Wyrm/Hijack/Jmich/Flub/Sage/bler/adalia/dedo
Rwarehall 484 (welcome)
Leonard: 527 (prompt for him to post more)
Lift: 680. I had to triple-check that because I didn't believe it.

It is particularly odd since, by that point, Lift had voted for CSP (even if just in RVS), quoted him to provide a list of ‘most scummy,’ and referred to him 5 more times. I’ll come back to why he finally mentions Lift.

Now looks at where Lift overlaps with CSP despite not being mentioned:
*30: RVS vote on CSPVG, “Because sooner or later he'll start lurking as always! “ Nice cover.
50: RVS vote on me.
*77: Jumps in to cover CSP with his own 3 person list. See, no harm no foul in asking! CSP does not acknowledge his post.
*281: Disagrees CSP should be top lynch and either Flub or Adalia should be target.
*294: Concedes I made a good argument and that we should keep an eye on CSPVG. Unspoken: just don’t lynch him.
*335: Votes Adalia. Adds list of players to watch: flub, Hijack, and after them “CSP and/or dedo.” CSP is no longer even 3rd – he’s dropped quietly to #4/5 after adalia, flub, hijack, and maybe dedo.
420: Pushes for flub train. Choo choo!
*475: “But seriously: if we do have someone who can read stats, look out for someone with a high STR.” Also:
“But I do agree on not revealing if someone elses packs were searched. That tells scum more than it does town. Although there is a good possibility for two role cops, so that the two searched packs make sense. Role cop is more often a scum role, since it helps them more. RW was town role cop, so a scum role cop might still be floating around. “
*516: “it is sure that at least either dedo or trent is scum (or both…)” Votes Trent. Acknowledges possibility of telekinesis
522: Makes claim of knowing he was protected to counter Trent’s role claim.
535: Strongly denounces request for mass claim and insists that Trent v. Dedo must be resolved! If Trent flips town, then obviously we lynch Dedo!
648 (dawn of D3) “ Should we share what happened around us at night? I mean apart from being protected, which, as dedo suggests, should be kept silent for now “ Mostly contradicts what he said in 475. Did I miss where he came around?
*684: Refers to CSP’s “few more” unspecified reasons for voting me.
737: Sees opportunity for no lynch on table, backs off. Unvotes me. Makes nice to both me and JMich.


Lift is regularly around CSP’s posts, gives him cover in his RVS vote and post 77, and there’s a resonant harmony there in several spots : 475/512/515/516, then 680/684. That's a lot of connection given that CSP doesn't post often (~27 posts so far).

And the first time he does name Lift at all is to tell me that me reason for voting Lift is terrible. Which, while mostly accurate, is telling. Again: The first thing that makes him even acknowledge Lift is in the game is the prospect, however slim, of Lift being lynched.

I can tell you why the 475-516 exchange is meaningful, but chew a bit on that first.

Plus going back through CSP's posts, now I know who to blame for the giant spider. ;)

It is somewhat notable, though perhaps coincidence, that the two players last game who made similar claims to lift's here (during the game) were Yog and RW.

I won't talk about what I learned from visiting QA, though I will say the most confusing/concerning thing is actually the troll poo. He described it as incidental, but the PM I got implied that it looked purposeful. Not a hanging offense, but interesting.

My role lets me go through people's packs and see what they're toting around. Considering I think scum are probably concealed behind 'normal' roles, it's of fairly moderate power. Probably enough to make me the NK, but then I was probably tempting enough anyway, and I think it's important now to explain why the stats thing is important.

CSP's pack contains a calculator, spreadsheets, and the book "Actuarial tables for dummies" plus a few other items like handcuffs.

On its face it's not that suspicious, but it finally occurred to me tonight that someone had teased "if we had someone who can investigate stats" much earlier in the game so I went back to look. And starting from that post (Lift #475) a fairly strong pattern emerged between them.

It's been a rough week - don't give me crap for not thinking of it 3 days ago.

Also, coincidentally, not unlike JMich teasing arsonists last game because he was connected to the arsonist. It's hard for people to avoid talking about what they know even if they aren't trying to tease it intentionally. Given all the cross-connections between CSP/Lift (aside from CSP's seeming reluctance to acknowledge Lift's presence), and not just this single note, it seems much more significant than random.

If one considers they both might be scum it's a great setup for CSP to later throw shade on anyone with high Str down the road. CSP's N1 target was either Flub (Str 2) or Dedo (4), but whichever it was neither of them have Str to run the gambit on. The gambit doesn't go anywhere at all because Hijack effectively derails it for the rest of the game in #490.

As for me outing CSP right before dusk, even if we're both town (and I don't believe he is), no one is going to NK the bleeping stats cop over a tracker or someone who gets to see what you're toting. Worst case scenario I've increased my target profile, but now you know everything I know that I think shouldn't go down with me.

Mostly the only thing I'd want to know from CSP is which of the two mechanisms (theft or mind-read) is his. Have a guess but would like to know. The 'stats' thing was useful only because it was the key to finally seeing a significant pattern in posts that have been there all along.

And if I'm wrong? Then town probably loses. But I don't think we're likely to get anything more solid than this.

Vote stays firmly on Lift.

Development! I love it.

Let me add some thoughts to this. If what you say about CSPVG is true my guess is that he is the mind reader (stealing flavour shit from people's bags doesn't look useful for a person that works with statistics and such). And that would be the painful mind reader, too.

But that brings a similar question about you that I can't seem to answer myself. WTF does you chessboard have to do with your anything about you? My stuff at least hinted towards my race (Elf) and I can't really call an assumption that an elf might be a tracker, watcher or maybe JOAT a stretch. But the chess? Weird. Does it hint that your character is really smart or what?

Anyway, I'm not a fan of no lynch and I would be more willing to gamble a bit with rather than wait for Tomorrow considering we didn't accomplish that much Today using investigation results. I'm also not a fan of lynching over data that emerges just before the deadline, but oh well...



@Yog, can we get a vote count and ETA on the dusk?

Mostly a case of ennui, though I do try to push myself to post a bit more.

For the same reason you are correcting me. We are in trouble, so we are sharing information we have, and if you have been blocked, I do think that it would be important enough to share. Same if you blocked someone who didn't report it. So no, I'm quite confident that we only had 1 role blocker.

A limited shot role could very well be sitting on his power. As could any passive one. What roles would those be, and how would they affect us?

I'll refer you back to the game where I was the scum doctor. While the doctor is a very good role to have around, his usefulness depends on him targeting the correct person. The usefulness of an investigative role doesn't depend on who he targeted, since he will always be giving us more info. Not to mention that lack of protection confirmation does paint Lift in a very bad light.

I was under the impression that I didn't paint any specific investigator as town/scum, but you are correct, it would be hasty to accuse someone due to flavor.

The usual ratio of scum to town is 1/3, or 25% of total players. 4 in 13 is closer to 30% than 25%, thus why I think it's excessive.

I thought scum and mafia was the same thing. Are you including all neutrals in scum, or only anti-town neutrals?

And how would that change if we did lynch, and said SK decided to kill this night? Oh, right, 3 townies down. So loss next day.
Unless the SK hits scum, or there isn't an SK.

Yes. As I said time and time again, if you are confident enough that someone is scum, vote for them. But what happens if you aren't confident enough?
Option 1) Go for luck based lynch. If we it scum, hurray! If we don't, we lose a night's worth of investigations.
Option 2) Delay the lynch. Wait for extra info. Decide once you have the extra info.
Lynching today means that we are either in a better spot tomorrow (if we lynch scum) or in a worse one (if we lynch town). Not lynching today means we are not in a worse spot tomorrow, and depending on investigators, we may be in a better one. This only works here due to the sheer number of investigators we have (4), since not all of them will be killed. It is quite likely that one of them is scum, possibly two, but we will have 3 extra reads tomorrow, if not 4. So yes, for me the No Lynch is the safe play here, unless you can convince me that your preferred target is scum. bler is making a good case, but it may be too late for that now, with the deadline looming over us.

This is a very strange request! I know that bler kind of covered it in his subsequent posts, but this still sticks out to me. Why should the cop claim first? This seems very much like you want to construct a good bluff around what bler might know. True, bler claims to have investigated you and isn't trying to lynch you. This might mean that he didn't find any incriminating evidence - but he didn't find anything redeeming either, or he wouldn't be asking. So I still find your evasive answer very scummy!

Does this make bler town? Not necessarily. He still could be lying. I find it strange that he gives you so much leniency after a comment like this. And then he goes on to construct some kind of alliance between you and me. - But keeps his vote on me. You two could be playing a little act to demonstrate you are in different camps and at the same time throwing mud at me. Or you could be from different scum camps - or he is genuinely town after all and is just too focused to me to switch votes on you. However, I think you showed your true face with that attept at dodging bler's question. Therefore:

vote CSPVG

By the way: another scum suspect would still be Leonard. But there's no single post condemning him, it's more the impression that his play is off. First lurky, then, when induced to join, he appears a bit too agressive and just different. But I'm not sure enough that I would risk a mis-lynch over him. I'll have to go back through all his posts and hope, that there is still enough time to do so.

Something just occurred to me. Even if someone reports the protection being detectable or the actual protector comes up and confirms he targeted Lift on N1 what does that prove? Only that there is a protector, they targeted Lift and the action is detectable. That wouldn't automatically confirm Lift as Town, just that he didn't lie about it. So, once more, no real reason for the protector to step out at this point (unless they know for a fact Lift is lying, that is and even then I'm not sure it's needed, considering something may be in the works anyway).

Which ones do you have an objection about?

I was sure bler or someone would come up with this reply and of course I can't proove that this isn't one scum bussing one other. I can't proove either that I'm town. But you have to admit that this evasion by CSPVG was strange.

But yes, bler has a point too, that CSPVG kept ignoring me for so long is strange too. But I don't know why he would do that. I haven't exactly been silent and easy to ignore. Perhaps CSPVG can answer that himself?


1/3 =!= 25%

also 4 scum might not be exessive if they aren't all in the same team.

1 scum/3 town = 25% of total players is scum. A mixture of 1/1 oil to water ratio means 50% of the mixture is water, not 100%.

Someone asked about time: No Lynch occurs roughly 11 hours from now.

Absolutely!

Oh! Then it was misunderstanding based on wording/expression. In my experience 1/3 is usually read and referred to as one third as in ~33.333333%.

You are right. I should have given it as 1:3, which may have clarified things a bit. This is what happens when you post first thing in the morning, even if you say that it is a ratio of 1/3, the ratio is ignored.