The point I was trying to make is that you are not really talking about who you think is scum.

1) Lulz. Nicely done!
2) I didn't perceive it that way. He was either sucking up to me or it was an honest statement. I tend to think the latter. Doesn't seem related to you in any case as I can tell.

3) Interesting question. At least some aspects of my mechanism are clearly just flavor - not confirming or denying other parts are meaningful. When you know there's some "oh, that makes sense!" but I think trying to make sense of it on your own you'd be at least as likely to guess wrong as right.

Stealing stuff could be mechanism related, or it might just be flavor. My PM relates my mechanism to one of my stats, even, roughly parallel to Dedo's claim IIRC. A mind-reading mechanism in theory could fit with a pretty wide range of roles.

One thing about that possibility is that we could have three (maybe even four) cops on the town side, which would mean you are still a valid suspect.

Well, of course. That's how scum hunting works. And more often than not Townies suffer more than scum in the beginning.

You already know I'm not extremely fond of yourself. JMich seems different than his usual analytical self and doesn't seem to be too involved, but unfortunately I wasn't part of the game where he was scum and I don't have a base for comparison. As others suggested HijacK and Wyrm also are less outspoken than usual, especially HijacK. All of these may be like that because of RL situations or not, no way to confirm that. Bler is intriguing me to say the least. So far he's been the most fun to dance with if nothing else. I can't say these are scum picks, more like people of interest, some more than others.

Saying who one thinks might be scum =/= Scum hunting

That was for bler.

I'm a bit confused by that. I think I've said prior that I also think town has at least 3 cops and possibly four, and that, yes, of the four I can't "prove" I'm town.

That said, your statement seems to suggest town could have 4 cops and I would not be one of them. Wouldn't that assume there's an additional cop out there who leaves no trace? Or one might also take it to mean you're insinuating you're also a cop but do leave a trace, and since you were blocked on N1 you didn't use your ability N2.

While it's certainly possible, the suggestion that there are 5 cops complicates a number of things. Or am I missing your point?

From what I can see, there are 4 cops, and at least 3 are town. Maybe 4. We agree on that? I'm telling you I'm one of them, but yes, again, I cannot "prove" I am one. Even Lift flipping scum wouldn't prove I'm town, since I could be bussing him, though tactically I'm not sure that would make sense in this scenario.

Why? So you can bluff better? ;)

Okay, sitting down to try and wade through the next 4 pages.

Yogsloth must have been getting mighty bored. I suppose 5 days should be plenty long enough, and I just feel short-handed because I ended up missing a day and a half. Oh well. Maybe I should stop griping about the mod.

Just figured out who I'm feeding to the spider.

Brb. Need to wash the cat for the next 35.8 hours.

You sure that's wise? The spider can only kill you in the game.


The cat is going to kill you IRL.

Dafuq? Leo turned into a semi old me. :D He's still too polite and that vocabulary is stale, but the aggressiveness is there.

Problem is, you are too smart for me to feel safe trusting that. I've been very impressed with your intelligence, and I've been watching your confidence grow as you play. Another few games, and you could well be a wrecking ball, in my humble but accurate opinion. ;)

I'm sorry to hear about more life troubles, though.

-----

Unless I've missed something, we have a few players that haven't revealed their night actions or anything they may have been told about being targeted (ex. you and me). Why would you assume that any townie that has been role blocked would come forward? For that matter, assuming any townie would have come forward, why would you assume there isn't a second role blocker that may have managed to hit scum both nights? Have we negated the possibility of a 3rd party scum with role blocking abilities?

My biggest concern is the apparent assumption that because we haven't heard about it or seen it, it hasn't affected a townie and probably doesn't exist. I seem to recall Yogsloth repeatedy not using his NK.

Perhaps, but Lift is addressing the doctor specifically. When we are identifying who was targeted by what, we are adding information about who might and might not be which roles. I think I've talked about the dangers of this previously, and Bler has been pushing on this topic pretty repeatedly too. Yes, it applies to all roles, which means it also applies to the doctor. The importance of doctor versus investigative is, as you point out, debatable.

-----

These assumptions, if true, say something about the flavor of the roles. If there are 3 scum, and there are two investigative roles that have unfriendly aspects (pack theft, mind violation), and scum are unlikely to have more than 1 investigative role, then we can't say that an investigation marked by something unfriendly comes from a scum player. The flavor aspect could just be a way to differentiate which investigation role is targeting a player (pack thief versus non-thief, friendly mind read versus hostile) as opposed to a clue that someone has been investigated by town or scum.

-----

-What is a "vanilla cop"? I don't recognize the name, and the name doesn't say much about the likely ability.

-In later days we sift through claims to look for outright lies and to cross reference what people say they did with whether it seems likely they made the decision they claimed at the time they claimed they did it. Different sort of verification. Not sure which method, if either, is better.

-Is that "Not received" or "Not Claimed to have received"?

-----

I'm curious as to whether you have any reasoning beyond "4 scum seems high" to decide that 3 is the number of scum. No lynch is a risky idea if there are 4 scum, and a fatal one if there are 4 mafia. If a SK decides to finally try out his kill ability, that could be two town investigative roles done in one night, with him claiming misplaced Vig afterwards.

-----

-721: Now dedo seems more content with putting the doctor at risk. A turn around from 646.

-----

Whoa, whoa, whoa. I just went back and double checked on the math you posted in 712. The math pans out, but it looks to me like you jumped awful fast over to a No Lynch for today to get that extra night. Here's the results again for those (like me) that didn't pay close enough attention when JMich ran through it the first time:

Day 3 -> Mislynch, NK -> Day 4, Mislynch -> 3v3, No Night 4.
Day 3 -> No Lynch, NK -> Day 4, Mislynch, NK -> 3v3, No Day 5.
Day 3 -> No Lynch, NK -> Day 4, No Lynch, NK -> Day 5 is 4v3 (LyLo).

This assumes 3 scum, and it assumes the doctor is either an utter failure or doesn't exist. We have to No Lynch twice to be sure to get to Day 5. Otherwise, we're right back at risking the mislynch and not getting through Night 4.

So yeah, we get an extra day if we don't mislynch either today or tomorrow. When the math looks like this, I'm a little uncomfortable with agreeing to No Lynch, when lynching scum on either of those days also gives us the extra day. And by a little uncomfortable, I mean it sounds like a terrible idea. Give scum two NK's without much fear of reprisal? I'm sure they'd go "Yes please!". We either let them take pot shots at claimed investigative roles that are supposed to be using those nights, or we risk losing said roles to blind shooting.

Good grief, JMich. Surely I'm not the only one that thinks this is a terrible idea?

Posting this now. I'll continue catching up, but this bit seems kind of big.

I like to think I'm smart (as Trent pointed out last game), but I can't lie very well. And it would be very hard to maintain a lie talking this much. Yog was all over the board last game - he skated mostly because other people kept presenting as juicier targets and he ducked and dodged like crazy. I'm going for something more akin to "talkative but relatively stable." Of course, none of you have seen me lie, so you don't know that definitively. But I'd likely suck at it.

The trouble with assuming more role blockers is the same as assuming 4 scum. It's possible, but not super likely. And worse, if it's so, we're probably hosed anyway. So why set strategy around something that's both unlikely and a near-guaranteed loss anyway? Focus attention on the scenarios that are likely and where success is viable.

Leonard could certainly have a role that was blocked N1 and then held back N2, but if he was also a role blocker why would his order of operation be behind the other role blocker? Why would scum not claim to have been role blocked instead of claiming the visit and trying to spin the role blocker as possibly scum?

Vanilla cop: http://wiki.mafiascum.net/index.php?title=Vanilla_Cop

Yes, 'not claimed to have rec'd', but there was an error in that Lift claimed to have been protected N1. So I think it's just you and JMich that have had nice, peaceful, uninterrupted evenings so far. Right?

On the math issue, I think it's possible to be technically right about the math, but gloss over that there's a difference between living to fight another day and retreating to a corner there's only a slim chance of clawing back out of. I made that mistake last game.

I think No lynching creates the same dire prospect here, even if it does make today easier. I would feel otherwise if I was confident there was a town cop who was going to bring us something guaranteed tomorrow. But that assumes there's a cop with that amount of power, and that said cop lives through the night, and that the collected townsfolk all believe that person to be town.

That's...a lot to ask for. Otherwise we're likely to be stuck with the same shitty hunch-based options tomorrow I suspect, and even less margin for error.

I'll give a slightly more full answer to this, since it is actually an important question for everybody, not just me teasing CSP for making a suspicious request. I actually know a few things the rest of town doesn't know, the question being what, if anything, is it worth?

I was tempted to say I found your Harry Potter slashfic collection just for amusement, but that would not go over well with certain people. Why does Lift hate flavor jokes!?

Anyway, what do I know about CSP? Something! The end.

Ok, well, my investigations have been set around the notion that you or QA is scum, but I've visited you both. And despite that I'm pushing a wagon for Lift. What can one intuit from that?

One would tend to conclude I don't have evidence to indicate either of you should be a prime target for town, and maybe not at all. I'm willing to risk that what I know could be lost if I'm the NK, so either my silence is to protect one/both of you, or I don't have anything that valuable at all, or [etc.] Clearly I'm not World's Best Cop. But I might still be worth NKing.

If you're town, I would say I don't know anything that would prevent you from claiming honestly. I do find it a bit interesting you would ask the question 25 hours before deadline though, even aside from the phrasing. The only reason I suspect you at all this game is your play.

If we're all alive tomorrow, then sure, we can trade stories. If I die, then town will have to try and win without all the super awesome stuff I know.

Maybe scum will shake on a gentleman's agreement that if we no-lynch, they'll no-NK? Of course, we'll need a volunteer from the scum squad to come forward to agree to terms.