No, the mafia only need a mis-lynch to win the game.

Will try and add my thoughts tomorrow been a long tough few days...

With it being so vital to get this one right, it would appear we are all waiting to hear what you got to say, so whenever you're ready....;o)

Also - we not heard from Quad since September 19th...lurking at this late stage!?!!

The mafia need a mis-lynch AND a night kill to win the game,
and it's unlikely but not impossible that they wouldn't manage to make the nightkill. I would describe the details necessary for this outcome but as they have been mentioned two or three times already I won't.

Consider yourself prodded.

There should be votecount now but I don't have time to post it so you have to endure one more day without it.

Full read will be tomorrow/thursday kind of ran out of time to tonight with number 6 ending and origin being a pain in the ass for the BF3 beta

To prevent the night kill, there would have to be a Town Doctor; since we already have (had) a Town Jailkeeper, I don't believe there is one; so all the mafia need is a mis-lynch.

The roles were randomly chosen from a list, so we have a one in three chance of there being a doctor. It's a slim chance but it's there.
Would it be enough to influence the actions of a cautious mafia? I don't know.

33% is a fairly decent chance in this game, but as I'm pretty sure by now that we do not have a cop, it's actually 50/50. Which isn't bad at all, but it's nothing we can rely on, anyway. We should definitely treat this day as a LYLO.

(I just realised this is supposed to be a newbie game and I have thrown around this term liberally without much explanation, so in case anyone is wondering, LYLO stands for Lynch or Lose, but a more exact term would be Lynch Scum or Lose. A situation in which a mislynch followed by a nightkill results in a mafia victory.)

Thanks for clarifying that. Zchinique had mentioned it somewhere so I did know it but still, it's nice of you to think of us new players in this game.

One person missing at this stage puts us in a really awkward position. If they're town then the town can't really win can they? Because we don't have enough bodies to control that lynch.

Indeed - Quad appears to have vanished....

Yeah, I sincerely hope he comes back. By now there really isn't anyone to replace him, and at this stage, every vote matters. Games stuck in limbo aren't fun.

Sorry for the delay 14 days straight at work to then, a social life to unpredictable to handle and problems with my current flame have stopped by ability to sit down and write a huge post....

Although I am in thinking that the mafia pairings are either joe/robbe or nmillar/baz or quad I cant currently decide which side of the coin seems the right flip although the latter currently outweighs my theories on the former....

Hell with it its 230am and Im working on stuff anyway here goes nothing....

Pair number one both strike me for the same reasons in which after an initial arguement both seem to be overly friendly, I found joes trusting me statement to be a rather odd statement, In a game of trusting noone it justs seems like a ploy to influence my vote.. Though in his references to me throwing the first stone in the quadalien vote if I were mafia why would I keep the first stone thrown at my partner after his first post and keep it there....

Same to a degree with robbeasy after our week long arguement was blown apart by zchniques odd and ultimately foolish methods I cant but to a degree help feel a certain unease that he generally is in agreement with my theories, After 3 months of knowing nothing maybe the paranoia has kicked in for me and I really dont trust anyone at this point. However in his defence hes stuck to his guns in voting and Id be a hypocrite in citing anything about the zchnique mislynch..... I also am unsure how to read him "forgetting" about me....

I found baz baiting game to be rather scummy, Waiting and pouncing on the first person to gauge him a reaction, Plus once he took over someone died and being either him or Quad triggering my suspicion because of it but its not that what mades it fit, To me its out of all the players picks nmillar to vote for then immediately switchs this whole hopping frog theory just seems to me to be an effort to justify his partner vote at the beginning...

Then I look at nmillar dropping the hammer incorrectly again twice in this game, I did to a degree think it was justified, but at the same time he could get away with it as there would be little to no repentance on his behalf...

Then I look at days one voters for gamerager - zchnique xyem ovvon(baz) ViolatorX nmiller

My hunch is simple really as I never know who xyem used his action on my theory is he aimed for the end of the chain in nmiller blocking him from killing...

night two he is targeted again and ovoon(baz) isnt around to do the kill so he has to do it and fails

Night 3 now that Baz is playing Baz nominates to do the kill and whacks the Jailkeeper resulting in our first town loss, Its the simple if nobody died it must have been the right decision method of thinking by xyem.... ovoons inactivity periods seem to match this timeline.

As your a man of stats me being mafia in 2 games or 4 is far less a probibility of you being town 7 games in a row

As im unsure that baz maybe one of the two Im convinced Nmillar is finally a mafia player this time, with the votechains and the actions all pointing to this being the most logical theory of where by votes now going, as like a broken record Im going to say well the person ive voted for has vanished so this time im taking it off and voting for my other suspect.

Unvote, Vote Nmillar


I say we modkill quad if he doesnt post, doesnt really matter either way were at lylo or we end up better off

In what way is this scummy? If I were scum, I wouldn't need to gauge reactions, because I would know everything already. But I don't, which is why I'm actively trying to find out. What else are we supposed to be doing, staring contests?
You fixate on this way too much. It's very, very inconclusive. There was a jailkeeper in this game and there may be a doc, meaning there can be a dozen good reasons why there wasn't a nightkill. But no, you choose to ignore them and focus on an implausible out-of-game one. Why?

All in all, you've earned some nice scumpoints in my chart here with this post.
If QA is town, the correct approach after modkilling him would be to skip the night, taking us to another LYLO where Town:Mafia is 3:2. That's still playable. I'm afraid we will have to do that if he doesn't come back within say a week; I'd really like to see the current cursed round of mafia games reach its conclusion.

Sorry, had really busy days with scarce internet access.

WARNING! This votecount is not correct!

Late votecount

ViolatorX – 1 – QuadrAlien
nmillar - 1 – ViolatorX
Robbeasy – 1 – bazilišek
bazilišek – 2 – Robbeasy, JoeSapphire

Not voting: nmillar

Closest to lynch is bazilišek with 2 votes (L-2).
With 6 alive it takes 4 to lynch.

I PM'ed Quadr and if I don't get any answer soon, I'll have to resort to modkill.
Also there will be a deadline soon. I have not decided when, yet.