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General discussionHarry Potter and GOG Mafia #64(1552 posts)(1552 posts)
(1552 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted February 12, 2020
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trentonlf: Eh, too much effort
I find this a bit hard to wrap my head around seeing as you ran your own game at one point. o.0

(Unless you weren't being fully serious and my joke/sarcasm meter is broken again?)
Posted February 12, 2020
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GameRager: On a scale from 1 to 10 [...]
Perfect! Thanks =)

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GameRager: I lean Yog a bit towards town(even though they are also on my scum list as well) due to his pointing out the Flocke situation near the end of D1
This is interesting. We might have two sets of readings, one for 'scum points' and another for 'townie points'. Right now, we are using a single scale. Two sets might be interesting (for example, to make evident who is earning conflicting reads and who is simply lurking), although maybe that would be asking too much from everyone? But if there is enough interest, we might try it, eventually.

In this particular case, let us reduce @yogsloth's assigned suspicion a little, to reflect the conflict.

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GameRager: So how's that? Did I do well sheriff Bart? :D
Love that movie :-)
____________

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SirPrimalform: I... did?
Yes, you did. Apologies. The missing ones are @trent, @Flocke, @Caesar*, @Micro, @Joppo, @Pooka, @agent.

Even if you can just drop a few names leaning scum/town, that might help as well.
Posted February 12, 2020
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GameRager: I find this a bit hard to wrap my head around seeing as you ran your own game at one point. o.0

(Unless you weren't being fully serious and my joke/sarcasm meter is broken again?)
I often am being sarcastic in remarks that I say, but as for the chart Carradice wants I will probably not do it. If they are concerned as to who I suspect or think might be Town then they can always go back and look at my previous posts and determine this all on their own.
Posted February 12, 2020
Vote Count

Micro 4 - Joe, agent, trent, GameRager

Everyone else - 0

13 Players. Takes 7 to lynch.

When you see a vote count, please take a moment to make sure your name is against the correct person.
Posted February 12, 2020
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Carradice: Perfect! Thanks =)
I try.

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Carradice: This is interesting. We might have two sets of readings, one for 'scum points' and another for 'townie points'. Right now, we are using a single scale. Two sets might be interesting (for example, to make evident who is earning conflicting reads and who is simply lurking), although maybe that would be asking too much from everyone? But if there is enough interest, we might try it, eventually.
Sounds good.

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Carradice: In this particular case, let us reduce @yogsloth's assigned suspicion a little, to reflect the conflict.
Or just mark him in the neutral/could go either way camp...that works as well.

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Carradice: Love that movie :-)
Me too....it has so many fun scenes such as this one :)
=======================================================================

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trentonlf: I often am being sarcastic in remarks that I say, but as for the chart Carradice wants I will probably not do it. If they are concerned as to who I suspect or think might be Town then they can always go back and look at my previous posts and determine this all on their own.
Fair enough.
Posted February 12, 2020
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GameRager: I find this a bit hard to wrap my head around seeing as you ran your own game at one point. o.0

(Unless you weren't being fully serious and my joke/sarcasm meter is broken again?)
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trentonlf: I often am being sarcastic in remarks that I say, but as for the chart Carradice wants I will probably not do it. If they are concerned as to who I suspect or think might be Town then they can always go back and look at my previous posts and determine this all on their own.
It's OK. The aim is helping in reaching a consensus for voting, as well as finding curious things that might have gone unnoticed. But, is it possible that such a chart might help scum? Have been thinking about that, too. Whom is it helping more, and might the balance change as the game progresses? Possibly some veterans might have a feeling about it, positive or negative.

If people say it is better to make the state of opinion a bit less transparent, we might drop the issue as well, no problem.
Posted February 12, 2020
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Carradice: If people say it is better to make the state of opinion a bit less transparent, we might drop the issue as well, no problem.
I add my "vote" to the keep it going side....i'd rather we have the info gained from such(as I do want to try to win somewhat as well besides just having fun) and also have a little fun with the game rather than just playing all "mechanical" and "by the numbers" like a few veterans seem to like. :)
Posted February 12, 2020
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joppo: 1) He was getting close to nailing a scum who didn't like the heat.
2) He was far from scum, but they were getting heat elsewhere so they decided that it would be a good idea to move the focus to who RW suspected at the time.
3) Totally random kill (yeah, right).
4) He used his PR to cover someone who was the chosen NK..
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ConsulCaesar: I'd say 3. He was not among the most suspected, so the "bandwagons" don't give us enough information yet.
Nah, these choices are never really random. If anything the scum somehow perceived RW as the biggest threat. I'm just trying to figure out why.
Lift could be right, maybe it was just the removal of a experienced scumhunter. But I'm trying not to simply accept a comfortable explanation and move on.
==================

I would love to hear FlockeSchnee's explanation for the behaviour Yogsloth pointed out in #595. Didn't look as something a townie would do to one of their main suspects. So until a convincing explanation comes up he's at the front of the scum queue for me. In fact, let's put some pressure:

Alvum profluvium FlockeSchnee
(You might need to change your robes)

And let me add myself to the list of people who want to hear what Micro has to say about both he being able to prove himself Town and about RW's ISO clearing him. As far as I am aware RW only said that his supposed role fishing was too brazen to be actual scum role fishing, which goes a big distance from meaning "I'm totally sure this guy is as Town as I am".
=========================

@Carradice here goes my list

SirPrimalform 0.5
yogsloth 0.7
trentonlf 0.6
Lifthrasil 0.25
FlockeSchnee 0.85
JoeSapphire 0.6
Carradice 0.2
RWarehall 0.0
GameRager 0.5
ConsulCaesar 0.8
Microfish_1 0.75
joppo 0.0 (can I assign a negative?)
PookaMustard 0.6
agentcarr16 0.65

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joppo: Agent had made a mistake that was so obvious there was no coming back. Trent knew Agent would be the D1 lynch right away and bussing was the least risky option. If Agent had managed to stay hidden longer their strategy certainly wouldn't be the same.
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Carradice: @joppo: See? so there was a valid tactical reason for that, and the rule-of-thumb sure meets exceptions in practice.
Exactly. There was a valid reason in that game that just doesn't apply here. Or do you see anything Microfish did as an unrecoverable mistake and I'm the one not seeing it?
Not to say it never happens... but it would be hard to justify based on what we have seen so far.

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SirPrimalform: I think if Micro hasn't come back to explain a few things by tonight (UTC) I'll add my vote for bit of pressure.
Exactly what I'm thinking. My vote is on Flocke right now but I wanna see Micro convince us that he's Town for real or I'll agree (and help) his joining RW in the hospital wing.
Posted February 12, 2020
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joppo: GameRager 0.5
Bah, don't I at least get a 0.6? Must not be acting weird enough this game. o.0 ;D

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joppo: ConsulCaesar 0.8
Why so high a suspicion on Caesar, if I may ask(if you answered this before, then just point out which post and i'll look it up myself :))?

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joppo: joppo 0.0 (can I assign a negative?)
Let's ask Lord Vader out there tumbling in space: "Nooooooooooooooooooooo!" ;)

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joppo: My vote is on Flocke right now but I wanna see Micro convince us that he's Town for real or I'll agree (and help) his joining RW in the hospital wing.
I also want to give Micro a chance to expand on what he meant and dissuade us from a trip to said wing if he is town....hopefully he'll be on soonish. :)
Posted February 12, 2020
It would be a heck lot better if the GOG forums were optimized for mobile. Then I would be able to comfortably read and catch up with the game from the comfort of bed. Alas.

I'm going to ISO Microfish before committing to voting him.

Couple of quick points:
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Lifthrasil: I disagree. Intelligent scum may avoid putting all their eggs in one basket. Especially the hammer position on a mislynch is better left to Town, from Scum's view. Also, intelligent scum know that a no-lynch is bad for Town. Worse, actually, than a mis-lynch. A no-lynch is basically a free night-kill with minimal information for Town. So why should scum do our job for us? Maybe they just sat back yesterday enjoying the show. Or they were content with derailing one or two trains that had actual scum members as target and then sat back.
Indeed, intelligent scum will not put all their eggs in one basket. However, they will very probably put at least one egg in the basket. Even you admit to lynching a scumbuddy day 1.

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Lifthrasil: Not regular. But it happens. Sometimes it's even necessary, if one scum is too obviously scummy. If I remember correctly, I won one game as scum by bussing my partner on Day 1 and afterwards saying, that no scum would ever do that.
If Micro is indeed Mafia, it's in the interest of one scum to hop on and bus him. If he got lynched, the scumbuddy got Town points for contributing to a scum lynch. If he didn't get lynched, well, his buddy is still alive.

Also back to your original argument: scum would sometimes do our job because, guess what, it's in their interest to gain Town points. And while a nightkill without a lynch may sound nice on paper, it's counter-intuitive for scum because not only does it make the game take longer and thus produce more opportunities for slips, it also gives Town power roles free nights. If they had failed to nightkill RW, then they simply prolonged Day 1 AND gave Town power roles free information without making as little as a scratch.

So I have to disagree with the implication that no-lynch is beneficial to scum because "free night-kill." How is it even a "free" night-kill anyway? They were going to attempt a night-kill on Night 1 whether we lynched or not. The way I see it, we gave up our lynch, but they didn't give up their night-kill.
Posted February 12, 2020
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joppo: @Carradice here goes my list
Thank you! You just made the results more interesting, and the chart, more exciting! Really. some findings were to be expected, but some were not that easy to foresee.

Just finished writing a key for each index. Hopefully, commentary will be available today as well (maybe including some more views).

For something completely different: this seems to be a critical week for both @Micro and @Flocke, but they must be overwhelmed IRL

@Pooka: Interesting post, especially the second point.
Posted February 12, 2020
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PookaMustard: So I have to disagree with the implication that no-lynch is beneficial to scum because "free night-kill." How is it even a "free" night-kill anyway? They were going to attempt a night-kill on Night 1 whether we lynched or not. The way I see it, we gave up our lynch, but they didn't give up their night-kill.
That's the precise definition of why no-lynch is beneficial to scum.
Posted February 12, 2020
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GameRager: Bah, don't I at least get a 0.6? Must not be acting weird enough this game. o.0 ;D
Wrong, you're just as weird as usual. And that's the point: I'm getting used to your weirdness being NAI.

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GameRager: Why so high a suspicion on Caesar, if I may ask(if you answered this before, then just point out which post and i'll look it up myself :))?
It's pretty much a combination of:
a) original suspicion from post #240;
b) a wagon that disappeared even more suddenly than it grew;
c) general lurking. Well, more like posting too little while not having shown much scumhunting effort. As we leave D1 and march further along D2 the leeway we have for such behavior gets smaller and smaller;
d) as I pointed in #615, RW's death could well indicate he was scum feeling it was too risky to leave RW live to push his wagon on D2.
Posted February 12, 2020
Everybody in the game thinks I'm scummy

Everybody in the game is voting my candidate

deepthoughts.jpg
Posted February 12, 2020
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PookaMustard: It would be a heck lot better if the GOG forums were optimized for mobile. Then I would be able to comfortably read and catch up with the game from the comfort of bed. Alas.
Just do like I do(sometimes) and use a laptop in bed if you have one. :D

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PookaMustard: I'm going to ISO Microfish before committing to voting him.
Sounds good....if you have time could you post it here so we can also read it as well without all needing to put in the effort? If not, fair enough....just spitballing/making suggestions.

(Also in the bits I snipped you made some good points)
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Carradice: Just finished writing a key for each index. Hopefully, commentary will be available today as well (maybe including some more views).
Hopefully... as I(and i'm guessing other town) would like to see it when it's done. :)

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Carradice: For something completely different: this seems to be a critical week for both @Micro and @Flocke, but they must be overwhelmed IRL
Likely so....as no matter scum or town at least one of them would likely be on defending themselves right now if they had the chance.
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joppo: Wrong, you're just as weird as usual. And that's the point: I'm getting used to your weirdness being NAI.
Good good...*pets cat* o.0
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joppo: It's pretty much a combination of:
a) original suspicion from post #240;
b) a wagon that disappeared even more suddenly than it grew;
c) general lurking. Well, more like posting too little while not having shown much scumhunting effort. As we leave D1 and march further along D2 the leeway we have for such behavior gets smaller and smaller;
d) as I pointed in #615, RW's death could well indicate he was scum feeling it was too risky to leave RW live to push his wagon on D2.
K then...will look into him a bit more later maybe...thanks for the thoughts. :)
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yogsloth: Everybody in the game thinks I'm scummy
It's likely not everyone, and not everyone suspects you the same amount.

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yogsloth: Everybody in the game is voting my candidate

deepthoughts.jpg
As long as your suspect gets lynched and turns out to be scum why are you bothered WHO does it? If micro got lynched and was scum then you can analyze the wagon and who did/didn't vote while looking for scum. If micro got lynched and was town you could do the same.

So then what's the problem besides worrying you might be picking the wrong target...or is that the bulk of it?
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionHarry Potter and GOG Mafia #64(1552 posts)(1552 posts)
(1552 posts)