I see there's been quite some activity, and things to address, but I did some phone-reading earlier today, and I'd like to address the elephant in the room, aka the RWarehall/Catter thing. I think it's more important with EoD2 coming up, the rest can probably wait.


It's true that Catte has lots of joking around posts, has done little to no game-solving basically addressing posts to/about him, didn't show up/vote at EoD1 (but RL), drew attention to the difference between bucktoothgamer's fake-claim and actual (implied town) PMs, had that back-n-forth with JoeSapphire about it where he wanted to (and did) have the last word, and gave a really meh reads list where everyone's either their usual self or has no opinion of because new, and only a scum-vibe on JoeSapphire which may just be because of MU Championship PTSD (his words).

Thing is, none of the above is particularly out of character for town!Catte - I've had a lengthy and quite intense back-n-forth with him in a game we were both town because he was mostly coasting and not game-solving; turned out a colossal waste of time and energy, and a huge distraction (we lost).
As scum, though, he's usually more engaged and game-solvy, using mistakes townies make against them. Here, otoh, he seems to... just not care particularly? It's certainly not good, but it's not particularly scum-indicative for him, more like he's LHF (Low hanging fruit: player who's is easy to eliminate).

Which brings me to RWarehall. And his treatment of Catte. It brings back flashes from a game where town!me was at the receiving end of such treatment from scum!RWarehall. And because that was a long time ago, I'm in the process of checking if that still holds in his most recent games.

One thing to keep in mind, is that RWarehall's really skilled at making perfectly town sounding posts (like post #375, for example, he makes posts like this as either alignment), convincing analysis and game solving as mafia; he's fooled many good players in past games. He's extremely good at spotting and presenting mistakes that townies make in ways that convince other townies he's caught scum, without him looking bad when their target flips green (town). I've seen him in action as town and as his scum-buddy, and that's why I mistrust him, unless/until it's mechanically impossible for him to be scum.


I'm going to post this bit as I continue with my ISOs, and post the rest separately, as it looks like it's going to be walli-ish - so please, don't just gloss over.

@HSL. Thank you for sharing this insight. Given what you said, would you say it is worth lynching Catte if only just to check, wether there is substance to RWarehall's words? If Catte flipped scum, it would pretty much clear RWarehall as Town. Though, if Catte flips Town, it says nothing concrete about RWarehall, seeing how he was on Buck's wagon. Might be Town on Town. But I have to say, if Catte flipped Town, I would consider your post again. Because even now, I could see how scum!RWarehall might be manipulating things. Can't know for sure without flips or successful night actions

So, I've ISO'd both, even ISO'd them together, and I've done some more legwork looking into past games.

I think my assessment of Catte holds after ISO-ing his last few games to refresh my own memory. I did notice that he's rolled mafia a lot (his last town game is over two years ago), so I'm thinking, this game may be a bit of an adjustment for town!Catte? Which may be playing into what he see here? Does anyone think that scum!Catte makes meta reads that say basically nothing this close to EoD2 when he knows it'd could/would get him lunched? I don't.

And looking into RWarehall's recent games, I think that my assessment of scum!RWarehall's play also still holds, so on to going over RWarehall's treatment of Catte:

-- Catte had the back-n-forth with JoeSapphire about his "revelation' (as RWarehall calls it) 5 days ago. At the time, RWarehall's first post was #465 addressed to JoeSapphire. Shortly afterwards he made post #466 with a general comment against breaking the game with PM discussion.

-- The Catte/JoeSapphire back-n-forth on the subject continued into the next day, that's 4 days ago. No more talk about it afterwards. RWarehall's post #498 back then has no comment on the matter.

-- Two days later (aka 2 days ago), RWarehall makes post #547. He prefaces it with how Catte's "revelation" had been bugging him as it shouldn't give Catte any town-points. Note that he brings it up in a townie way, but 2 days after it all had ended (Catte's right when he later says that it was in he past until RWarehall brought it up again). Catte addresses this part in post #554, RWarehall never replies. No other reactions except for dedoporno's post #549.
Of note here is that by the time RWarehall made this post, most of Catte's content was already in the thread, yet RWarehall placed him third in his list with "[...] I think I like the others more for today", and voted detective_razza instead.

-- Yesterday, RWarehall started gunning for Catte in post #584, where he's now added that Catte took "a couple of pokes at him for supposedly 'not getting the PM thing'" - please, go check for yourselves if that's an accurate representation/interpretation of Catte's post #554 (I think not). Closes with stressing how Catte's hiding in plain sight, etc etc (you can read all the reasons given in his post).

-- Catte replies shortly afterwards with post #587, and two hours later, RWarehall returns with post #593; three things of note here:
- he takes the PMs and flavour discussion, which he makes sure to stress that he dislikes, a step further, introducing "spirits (or other entities) either talking to us or possessing us". His "I'm glad that no one brought it up and that no one tried to use flavor text or PM minutia to cheat the game. Leave it be!" as a conclusion to everything he had said before is priceless irony;
- he uses the "unanimous acceptance of "policy lynch" is a sign they did" to support his claim that he "got" what Catte was alluding to, when that's a gross misrepresentation of the reason the claim was a policy lynch (see posts #429, #430, #432, #434, #439);
- he says "I said I wasn't buying it, but yes, part of that reason was I noticed there was no spirit or other entity involved in the claim [...]", in an affirmative tone, when back at EoD1, his first reaction to the claim was post #427, and his words on it are in post #433. In this context, post #440 looks like feigned innocence and uncertainty about the upcoming flip.

-- When Catte replied with post #594, RWarehall responds an hour later with post #596. The first part of it (before the quote with the rules), is typical scum!RWarehall attack - acting upset, reiterating the same arguments over and over with a forceful tone mixed with sarcasm, sucking his target back into the discussion on his terms, and drowning any attempt or argument of his target to end the discussion.

-- At this point, JoeSapphire steps in with post #597 which I actually find level-headed, and I agree with his "I think scum!catte also knows that people generally don't town read that kind of talk" - and RWarehall knows it too. Then makes another good comment in post #599.

-- RWarehall replies to JoeSapphire with post #602 - notice the tone, the framing of arguments, it all follows the pattern I described above.

I was waiting to see how RWarehall's going to react to JoeSapphire's post #605 before saying anything as to not influence his reaction, but his timezone isn't really lending itself for this to have happened already, and with the clock ticking, I decided not to wait so that town can consider my case.

This all comes after some other things that caught my eye about RWarehall:
-- post #367: I was wondering why RWarehall went to such lengths to show Catte how he arrived at his town read of him, with the added caveat about D2 at the end. Seeing how things unfolded toDay, I'm inclined to think it was cover for the attack against LHF!Catte, more so when revisiting his post #443.

-- post #371, combined with the relevant part of post #498: I had noticed the last paragraph of his post #371, and pondered over it during N1: First I thought it might be VT RWarehall trying to draw the NK hinting at a PR; I dismissed it as, rereading the bit, it wasn't a hint at a PR, it was more like a neon sign - a hint at a PR when one doesn't have one requires enough subtlety and innuendo to work as actual bait for scum without giving away much. Then I wondered if PR!RWarehall would really be so direct to not only broadcast he got a role, but his exact role at that. Seemed pretty odd, even if he really wanted to check Ambiti0nZ - he's a too good player to not be able to shuffle through all possible info when the time came.
And then, in post #498 he not only openly claims, but it looks like he was waiting to be questioned about it. So now I'm leaning it was groundwork and bait for town - looking to claim unprovoked disguised as provoked, to avoid possibly getting lynched toDay (given that he was a candidate D1).
Now one may ask - but wouldn't that make him a N2 NK target? And wouldn't he be lynch candidate if if he's still alive D3? Yes, but note that he clarified his role is "middling", so that provides cover/explanation for his survival, plus even if he gets lynched D3, he still got N2 to act.

-- post #498 (the part addressed to me), pointing back to posts #361 and #465/§1: Yes, his vote was instrumental in voting bucktoothgamer, but I wasn't questioning his vote, I was questioning his post #465/§1; it most certainly doesn't make him town in my book, because RWarehall plays the long game, and can easily have been planning three steps ahead, in case bucktoothgamer's wagon rolled and he had to bus. And he looks good in voting right behind Ambiti0nZ (whom he ever so slightly shaded here). And he knows it. And rubs it in JoeSapphire's face in #465/§2. Except, as I've said before (broken record, I know), the votes for an RWarehall lynch weren't there at EoD1 (which he surely also knows), and it certainly wasn't a case of "[...] why shift it to a scum buddy? If you are caught, a good scum eats it so as not to expose two players"; he wasn't caught anything by any means.


This took a lot more work than I initially thought, and got really long; bleh. Everyone judge for themselves, especially those that have prior experience with scum!RWarehall.

Vote RWarehall

Am I certain about RWarehall? From what I've seen and past experience, I'm confident enough to make the case. And if I'm wrong about him and/or Catte, I'll be sorry for the former, and tip my hat off to the latter for changing his scum-game this effectively.

Thoughts?

Some inconsistencies kept popping up during the day - marking Joe as a minor interest and RW as more serious one but ending up voting for the former; "promises" of upcoming engagement that is yet to be seen. Add that to the way she effectively coasted through D1 and was one of the people not on bucktooth's wagon. I was giving her the benefit of the doubt mostly because I was under the impression razza is very new to the game which would explain to some extent the lack of direction and commitment. Turns out I was completely wrong and razza has had previous engagements with the game after all. I remember reading that story about people being assigned colors and such for their night actions resolution but I mixed things up in my head and until today I thought that was Cephy's experience. I have the feeling the newbieness and uncertainty of what is going on may be exaggerated and razza's scum-buddy(ies) may have guided her to keep the facade as long as possible. The uncertainty about buck's flip is what baffles me the most, really.


I see both Dessimu and HSL have made lengthy posts regarding RW but I'm quite tired from a pretty exhausting day so I'll look at them tomorrow since I have the day off because of the blood donation. Logging off for now.

Does scum RWarehall go in for bussing? And there's bucktooth's vote on him close to End Of Day.


I am kinda tempted to vote RWarehall, but the bucktooth vote seems so telling.

Did it go - Joe votes RW, Joe unvotes, ZFR votes, Bucktooth votes, Joe revotes?

or - Bucktooth votes, ZFR votes, Joe revotes?

I think it was the first one?

Real quick check-in before bed, only JoeSapphire sort of commented.

@JoeSapphire, this is how the RWarehall voting went D1:

RWarehall - 1 votes (babark 30/155, LordCephy 92/101, JoeSapphire 286/305, ZFR 313/391, bucktoothgamer 336, JoeSapphire 373/395)

Numbers stand for vote-post/unvote-post, and first two votes were RVS.

What do you reckon?


I'm off to bed, goodnight.

I'm caught up, but don't have anything to really add. I don't feel like defending myself to the people voting for me and I figure having got scum yesterday we can afford the mislunch if it removes a distraction. But I'll happily answer questions if anyone has them.

HSL's analysis is interesting, it hadn't really occurred to me that such aggression might come from a place of scumminess. I haven't played mafia with RW many times, but I have a sort of meta read in that I have seen this level of aggression from him outside of mafia games, so I took it to be NAI.

I will be around tomorrow evening, around 5:45 pm my time (UTC+1), but I'll try and get online at work if I get the chance.

@HSL: #491 I asked RWarehall a question. #498 he answered. Did he claim something like this D1? Does it look like a lie? He could be scum, telling the truth under mask of Town, similar to Bookwyrm last game.

The one thing in RWarehall's case against Catte that I thought to myself, is where he posts scum-tells #602, they seem to be catered specifically to Catte. As in, he focused on Catte first, made the general "rules" according to that later, not the other way around. But then, he did write same tells on D1.

@Catte: why so doom and gloom? :/

I am more inclined to believe HSL and believe either RW or Catte is best bet to lynch.


Vote RWarehall

Until further notice, because I don't understand when day ends and I am at work

For my own benefit, as I understand it stands now:
Joe: 2 votes (including mine)
Catte: 2 votes
Razza: 2 votes
RWare: 3 votes

"Evening MEST" could mean anything, I'm going to assume it'll be something around 10 hours from now, so I still should have time to react, up until the end.

However, it does seem like a repeat of D1, with a sudden wagon forming and then being hammered before I even realised it. If that's the case, though, even though I can maybe see it happening this time, I don't think I'd want to change my vote to RWare. Ignoring all the angry noise, looking at the sequence of votes against buck on D1, I can't see him being scum.

I'll keep my vote on Joe for now, but if something starts happening with razza or catte, I could potentially switch, since they were on my list as well (again, purely going by vote sequences).

I think Razza is just as a low hanging fruit, as Catte is. No?

"Look at that! The sun is already gone!" someone cries. "Nah, that's just a cloud, you dummy!" another one retorts. "Ah, yes, a cloud. I knew that. Still, the sun is awfully low." "So do something about that!" "I can't influence the sun!" "No, but we can still get something done before Night falls."

Official Vote Count
Joe 2 - Razza 528, babark 551
Catte 2 - ZFR 530, RWare 584
RWare 3 - Catte 610, Hyper 618, Dessimu 624
Razza 2 - Ambitionz 486, dedo 612

RWarehall leads at L-3
Not voting: Joe
The Day will end this evening, whenever I get around to it after work.

Frankly I don't know what half the players are doing this game. After a successful last-hour lynch on Day 1 with the bare minimum of people/prior votes to get it done, we successfully lynched scum in a rare event of day 1 mafia. Yet here we are in day 2 and I think there have been as many or more votes for Joe or I who, along with the other 5 votes were essential in that outcome.

How? Yeah, someone could be hiding on the wagon. As much as I don't like his gameplay this day 2, and there are things that look scummy, I think if he actually were scum, he could have secured my lynch day 1 without too much trouble, saving Buck and doing it in such a way that it was justified. To me, those ACTIONS speak far louder than words that come off as scummy. He might be scum. He's my most likely suspect among us 7, but again actions vs words that often come out wrong. It doesn't help his scum case that ALL 4 of those who did not vote Buck have either voted for down to suggested they could see him as scum.

Why? Why are we looking at those who voted correctly day 1? For those claiming there is nothing to go on today so are stuck on meta reads as if it's day 1 all over again, you could be looking at who did what day 1. Yeah, maybe Joe got stuck voting for his buddy as the tides turned and votes started to roll in from me and ZFR, for a wagon that developed out of nowhere with initially only 3 players (unless I missed somebody) making ay sort of case for Buck, starting with HSL, then Ambiti0nZ and I ISOd him and wasn't pleased with what I saw in the context of a player with experience. Yet, until the last couple hours, it looked like that was all it was going to be.

And hey, maybe ZFR being online at the time felt obligated to join and bus his buddy. Maybe Dedo who held back his vote. Frost seemed most suspicious arguing 80% confidence Buck was Town. But in the end, people went along, and there was very little pushback. Hardly a peep suggesting anyone else. Maybe I'm naïve, but I still think its better than 50/50 that both scum are in the pool of Catte, Babark, Razza and now Dessimu.

And I think this because it went so smooth with no pushback and exactly enough player for it even to occur.

----------

So there are the 4.
Catte - Whose meta I recall, maybe my memory is faulty, but I vaguely recall a meta read that he's less active as scum than Town. Maybe that changed. Just going from what I recall. At least early days. Even quiet scum become active at LyLo, that isn't what I'm talking about. So to me, he matches that meta. How convinced am I? As convinced as any meta read...meta reads are usually crap. But more important is that as an experienced player of many games his INACTION is his action. Day 2 and all we get are meta reads. No comment about the progression of votes. No comment on anything with Frost who flipped Town. Just how they match up with the meta.

As to my push? Catte has become my prettiest princess. That doesn't mean Catte is head and shoulders more likely than the others, just the most likely by my read. And I'll admit, my judgment might be clouded. I just hate the way these GoG games keep devolving into cheap tactics in attempts to break the game through the PM texts. Going back to over 2 years ago when I last played, if it's not trying to confirmed oneself Town by using the secret code words in the PMs (I seen people use the fact they were called "Townie" and not just Town in the PM to get auto-confirmed Town(ie)) I've seen people drop their flavor text names and encrypt it into RVS posts. I've seen people drop a word and phrase that they are convinced will only be in Town PMs. All kinds of unethical attempts to get additional benefit by abusing PMs. And I don't like it. I've seen it ruin good games. That's what happens when someone gains the extra role of "Innocent Child - confirmed Town" through their own nefarious means to break the designed balance of the game. And at least back then, this was way too common, and I'm certainly not happy to see this has not gone away.

(cont)

The bucktooth vote looks risky for mafia-on-mafia. I dunno it's possible but.

I was thinking about RW's role claim and Day 1 request. Sorry to jump the gun, and I hope I'm not gonna make an idiot of myself but it's Motion Detector, right? He wanted to try and catch AZ out in a false vanilla claim so he asked no-one else to target him. (What would have happened if scum targetted town!AZ, I thought to myself just now in the shower?)

I know motion detector is a fairly weak role and unusual enough to make a safe fake claim, but the sequence of events is straightforward from town!RW

hm.

I wrote town!RW and thought to myself "but does a motion detector have to be town?". If he's a scum motion detector or he's been provided a safe fake claim (though this seems unlikely with bucktooth's claim) then it's easier to believe.


Also. I know he hasn't actually claimed motion detector, and I might be totally wrong.

Still, I think RW, catte and razza are all town.

I've left this too late,

vote dedoporno

I'm really not that convinced he's mafia but I think him or Dess has a better chance of flipping scum than any of the current wagons. Ugh that's crap isn't it?


I'm going to work but I'll have the game to hand. Of the current wagons I think my preference is razza rw catte joe. I should have put more effort in earlier. Damnnn you netflix this is all your fault!

Next up is Babark. I don't recall Babark posting all that much back in the day and also don't recall a play style that found subtle issues out of conversations. What I remember is pretty similar to now. I also don't remember Babark being Mafia but if so, I don't recall noting any differences. What I have is Babark was not one of the 7 who voted Buck out. Makes a good suspect in my book.

Razza - you are going to want to pay attention to this...
Razza is the player that just felt most scummy to me day 1. Again, not voting Buck. Put the two together...
I had an additional reason to vote Razza early today...
I was going to use my PR on Ambiti0nZ night 1 but after the events of day 1, I'm happy about his Townliness. So I instead sent the spirit of Sophia Hapgood to check on Razza. Apparently spirits are blind or just her spirit is (not in the flavor) because she can only tell if someone, anyone moves around the area. Someone did move around. I don't know if it was Razza. I don't know if someone else investigated Razza. Razza didn't die so I'm thinking it unlikely scum visited. This would have been great if we had a vanilla town claim from Razza first, but alas, we don't. Maybe you can piece together what happened last night in future days. For the love of God...DON'T say you visited Razza unless it become relevant. And Razza, I wouldn't say whether you have a power either. I tried. Town's gimped Tracker. It's not a terrible role, could be quite powerful at LyLo, but I doubted whether I would live that long anyway. I usually get killed early or mislynched. Thus I hinted I had a power day 1 to hopefully save a better power that Frost had. By the way, role is called Motion Detector.

As to that, and those questioning why Frost being an obvious target got killed? I suspect scum has a strongman who can't be stopped by a bodyguard or doctor, otherwise, I suspect they would have misdirected and gacked me. At least that's what I would have done and I would have sent the most exposed scum (could it be Razza?).

Anyway. Why Razza third now? Because Razza at least tried. I see reads. It could be scum squirming but it could also be Town trying to help. Some credit is due for trying.

Down to fourth moved Dessimu. I was not convinced at all early on but later in this day Dessimu has been making some good points. And they are not regurgitating points others have made/are making. The most seemingly Townie of the 4. Dessimu is also a solid player. Am I fooled? Is Dessimu saving a suspect player in Cephy? I don't know. But as the day progressed and I thought more about going after Frost day 1. I mean, a player with little experience might try too hard to get a mislynch, but it also could be getting too stuck on a bad read. Hard to say.

Anyway, not sure how much availability I have tomorrow. I may or may not be able to check in, so I'm just dropping it all here.

My advice! Lynch one of the 4! I see no real scenario where both other likely scum are on that wagon. So at least one of those 4 are scum. Or you can lynch me, Joe, flash wagon someone else who secured a proper lynch even if both scum are off it and enter Day 3 with only one mislynch left and 4 suspects...your choice...