Much as I'm hardly one to talk, can you two hurry this up? Given Bler's insinuations of multiple people targeting him I had guessed that Dedo had tracked Bler a (real-time) couple of days ago, but given I had no actual proof of this I've been waiting to see where you're going with this. :)

I've checked back through Day 2, and while I've found something about the first visit being less than welcome it appears to have first come from Flub, who as far as I know wouldn't have been in a position to know such things - I have not yet found anything directly matching that description from HijacK himself.

(refreshes before posting)
(sees Bler's post at the bottom of the screen and rushes to catch up)
(realises he's on the wrong page)
(curses) :P

Yes, I admit, I picked that sentence out of others, because to me it stood out. Especially considering that you also argued that we may not mislynch today ... and then you present a faulty argument for 'random voting'. That's where I saw my suspicion confirmed.

But well, you saw your mistake and admitted it ... and I get the feeling a scum would have hounded me more for this cherry picking. I've given you enough handles for a counter vote, but you decide not to grab on to them. That again makes me believe, that you actually care about avoiding a mislynch ... which makes you townier again. So I can't vote on you in good concience any more:

unvote bler144

Which brings us to no sensible votes. Only one vote for no-lynch by JMich. And that one day before the suddenly appearing deadline. Damn! Usually such a suggestion like a no-lynch would make me immediately vote JMich, but unfortunately today it actually might be a towny suggestion. Its not the best option for town (better would be if we actually hit scum), but considering that we still have investigators in play and that we should avoid another mis-lynch, at least a no-lynch is worth discussing. Even if I don't like it usually.

But another remark: up to now we all only targeted active players. Adalia was active, on day 2 it was trent or dedo - both active players. Today it looked for a while like me or bler ... both active players. I think the problem is that those who write a lot also have a higher risk of making mistakes or writing something that looks bad to someone. Even if they are town. While the lurkers don't aggravate anyone and get a free pass. I have the feeling that in this game Bookwyrm is lot less active than he used to be. And, while Leonard shows up regularly, many of his posts were short and didn't have much content. So he could be using his known lurkyness to stay under the radar.

Therefore a direct question to Bookwyrm and Leonard (and CSPVG, while we're at it): what do you think about the no-lynch option and is there anyone you would be willing to lynch?



I already linked the post I was referring to in the post you are quoting. So why not follow the link there? bler wrote in post 681 his conclusion that there were multiple town power roles, from the fact that more than one visited him. I thought he meant he had been visited by two persons and that he somehow drew the 'multiple power roles' conclusion from the knowledge, that both his visits were town. ... But he later explained that he actually wasn't visited by two but by more than two persons, which makes his argument a lot better, since I agree that it is unlikely that more than one scum visited him. ... I hope I could make my reasoning and the misunderstanding it based on understandable now.

So, firstly my notes:

692 - HijacK - One thought about just such a scenario, but one still thinks this sort of thing, while not impossible, is highly unlikely. I don't think I've been in, or heard of, a game where a Doctor decided to stick with one person through the entire thing (I'm sure someone will provide a link to prove me wrong, but whatever).

Honestly though, I don't know if discussing this is all that helpful.

693 - Leonard03 - Really, we're three days in and not a single person is giving off scummy vibes to you?

730 - bler - A voice in the night you say? Did this voice say anything to you, or was it merely indistinct muttering?

735 - Dedo - Oh, so it was you, Dedo. Why were you speaking, in flavour terms, whilst watching bler? Not a very townie thing to do, muttering to yourself in the night, is it? This last question I mean jokingly, mostly.

In general:

To answer Lifth's question: I'm actually not sure if there is anyone I'd like to lynch today, but I'm also not wholly comfortable with leaving it at that. I've got four players I find suspect, though this is mainly for reasons of inactivity or that dreaded, silly 'gut reaction' thing of mine.

In no particular order they are:

Bler - In light of Dedo's latest accusation against him, and seeing as he apparently went through my pack, I can't but help be suspect of him. We'll have to wait and see what he says, though.

HijacK - Collegiate HijacK is either calmer or just disinterested. Whether the latter is because of RL getting in the way a little or if he's hanging back for some other, more sinister reason, I'm not sure. He hasn't been his normal bullish self, and it saddens me deeply that he hasn't shouted at one person to tell them that they're an idiot (well, not really, but still).

Leonard - Seems to me to be coasting through the game. I can't remember him posting quite so frequently in other games I've played with him, but I remember his posts in other games being more substantial. In this game he's mostly given us one or two line posts (from what I can recall), and generally kept to the sidelines of any major arguments that have gone on.

Lastly, Bookwyrm - I had forgotten completely about Bookwyrm being in this game. I'm not sure if that's down to me not having written much about him in my notes, or if he's just contributed that little. Anyway, I'm basically making the same accusation here (and no, I haven't gone back through the thread to check to see how much he's posted) that I made against Leonard above: he's coasting, hasn't posted much, and what posts he has made are insubstantial.

Three of those four accusations can basically be summed up by me saying,"They're playing differently than I remember them playing in previous games." I do honestly feel that way at the moment, though.

There is still no official accusation of anything. I just pointed out what I saw. Pack searching doesn't automatically make him a scum power role. We are yet to see what bler has to add about this.

I would add a bit of piggy-backing here and there of which I'm not a fan.

While it does clarify things a bit, bler still hasn't claimed anywhere that all people who visited him were town. So it does seem as if you are trying to cast bler under a very bad light.

You think town had three investigative roles, and a roleblocker, and a tracker, and a doctor, and a bodyguard? I don't.
On the other hand, it seems odd for scum to have two investigative roles. What could they want with an alignment cop (assuming that is what the bag-rooting is)? Is there a big third party team? bler should be able to clarify what type of investigator he is in a little bit.
One other thing though, I believe we came to the conclusion earlier that the other role cop was scum. Since both types visited bler one of them must have been a role cop, no?

Unless bler brings something new to the table I cannot see that lynching someone is a good idea. I am suspicious of you and dedo, but not enough to risk losing the game. Another night of investigations might be able to win it for us.

No, that is not quite true. I do not trust lifthrasil or dedo, but it is not strong enough for a vote, at least not in our current situation.

They were just my short posts condensed.

Once again, I will ask, can the person who was protected today please claim it. It's starting to feel like maybe you don't notice when you are protected, or that we never had a doctor in the first place. In which case we should lynch lifthrasil, right now.

A fair question. The short version being that, had you known what I knew, you would have seen this spiraling out of control very quickly if I claimed, or just being the prime target for tonight. And people seemed averse to a full claim.

I don't see how I can talk about what I know without a full claim or just giving scum a few prime targets. I had to hope you were town and that at least one of us survived the night. And at this point I know more than you, but if you're town it seemed worthwhile letting scum guess as to which of us knew more.

I am a cop, yes. Sir Cloudsely Shovel, Human Knight to be precise. But I will say that what I do know was more useful in the context of verifying a claim. I do not know enough to solve the puzzle, however. If QA or CSP want to share what I might know about them, I won't stop them.

If you want to know more we're going to be rolling very fast towards a full claim, and frankly that's going to go badly I fear. Don't suppose the spider had to stop for the potty?

I'll go through and read the other posts that came in overnight and this a.m.

I have no idea. Town having a bunch of power roles usually balances equally powerful mafiosos (Godfather, JOAT, Blocker, Strongman, you-name-it). It may seem like too much but it may not be once you know the whole setup. Do you feel comfortable assuming the best-case scenario rather than the worst?

When did we came to this conclusion? I'm pretty sure this was just an assumption and as it has been said numerous times - assumptions are a dangerous thing in this game. Speaking of which, why do you assume the bag thief is an alignment cop? The flavour doesn't suggest this. It's more likely that's a flavour cop or something like this. Far more likely for the bag searcher or the brain reader to be an alignment cop.

I don't know about third party teams, let alone big ones. I don't see the benefit of even discussing that right now. There may or there may be not a 3rd faction, no real way to tell at the moment.

I asked JMich this, so I'm going to ask you as well. I respect the fact that you are suspicious of me, but please share why. Stating suspicions without actual arguments backing them up is less than perfect.

I wasn't asking about your night actions, but your nightly experiences (where you got 3 visits). Why did you keep those secret so far? Were you waiting for something?

Compared to last game Leonard has been very involved here, but that's my only baseline for him. FWIW, to me he reads as being confused - I mean, I can confirm he's made several assumptions that are quite off, at least some of which I would assume scum would know untrue. Possible it's a bluff building toward a future wagon, but it reads to me as honest confusion.

Bookwyrm has been surprisingly quiet, but one could WIFOM that two ways. One, he slipped on admitting he had a PM last night. He's either scum who's trying to avoid another slip when he's already a bit exposed, or two, he's town and keeping his head down. Or he's busy in RL. Keep in mind this day has been relatively "short."

I've wondered, if Wyrm is town, why did scum hit Flub on N2? Possible it's more WIFOM, but I doubt that. I doubt they would have randomly hit Flub over Wyrm if both were town. So to me that means either the cop who hit Flub N1 was scum, or Wyrm is scum.

But I agree on the point that scum have benefited this game from watching town talk themselves into lynching their own. Maybe a nudge here or there, but we've made it pretty easy on them. It's one of the problems in a game where 1/3 of the players do most of the gabbing.

As for what a scum team looks like in a game with 3-4 cops, I think we've been looking at it the wrong way. Scum's strength likely isn't mega-power-roles, it's an ability to blend in to the environment while town gets all hung up in the partial, and misdirecting, info that it has. Which is a potential answer to the question "why might scum have an alignment cop?"

The answer isn't that it actually helps with NK determination - though given all the roles in play, scum are basically shooting fish in a barrel each night anyway - but that a scum alignment cop would be hard as sh*t to lynch as long as they avoided running their own wagon, Adalia-style.

Now, I'm not saying the alignment cop (if there is one) *IS* scum, I'm saying that it would actually be a very effective cover. Would Yog create such a game? Dunno.

What more do people want to *know* at this point?

Somewhere between waiting to see what others were say and a lack of conviction it would add much clarity to the conversation. The one thing the visits "confirm" is my theory that town has at least 2-3 power roles left, which I'd already put on the table. Though yes, I eventually came to realize it would be useful to town to know before nightfall.

I'd already teased it enough that I was the one you visited that, as QA notes, it was pretty clear to anyone paying attention. All that would have been lost if you were the NK was 'what' I did, and as noted, what I did opens a muuuuch bigger can of worms.

Though I could flip the question, since you withheld the visit for the same amount of time, no? Indeed, in post 694 in response to Leonard's request for you to reveal your action I said:: So I did not oppose you outing your visit, and yet you did not. What was your reason? That's mostly a rhetorical question. I'm not actually expecting you to have a "perfect" answer.

You said a few times that the mystery person may have something up their sleeve so there wasn't a reason no to give you your time. Also I preferred to not be the one who speaks out first. With Trent he mostly reacted to what was thrown at him rather than be pro-active. Pro-activity acts like prevention - I won't bite at you if you give me what I expect to get from you. I was also waiting on the other nightly experience reports, since that's the other source of information we could work with. It just happened that all of these were concentrated in you.

Fair enough.

The Grand Wizard pressed the party. Seemingly without fatigue, he pushed forward, ever deeper and downward. The air grew fouler as they proceeded – clearly, the source of the depraved aroma grew closer.

“Hey, ah, maybe we could… slow down a bit?” asked bler, trotting along behind yogsloth. “You know, I mean, what’s the rush? Can we just think about this a bit? Maybe rest for a minute?”

“You’re just complaining because you have a dead hobbit across your shoulders,” reminded dedo.

CSPVG guffawed and wiggled his fingers. “Water. Water, gentlemen.”

“Where are we going again? I’m confused,” added Leonard03 helpfully helping nobody.

“I would like to comment on something one of you said three days ago…” began HijacK, but nobody paid attention.

Lifthrasil and JMich were having a discussion of esoteric logical fallacy.

Bookwyrm and QuadrAlien seemed to be engaged in that most favorite of all childhood games, “Who can be quiet the longest?”

Finally, yogsloth whirled back to the party. “It seems none of you understand the gravity of the situation. Unguent the Lubricated may look like a giant twenty-foot tall Spider from the deepest netheregions of hell, but the truth is far worse than that! She is a primal evil, born before the Dawn of the World, allied with the Demons, servant to Zarthax the Terrible!”

He began to get more and more agitated.

“If you chicken-brains don’t come up with one of the murderers by the time we get to her nest…”

The threat hung in the air.

The only sound was the body of cristigale slipping from bler’s shoulders and whumping onto the dungeon floor. “Someone else’s turn,” he whispered.

_____

OFFICIAL “30 HOURS TO GO” VOTE COUNT


No-lynch – 1 (JMich)



Not voting – HijacK, Lifthrasil,CSPVG, Bookwyrm627, Leonard03, QuadrAlien, dedoporno, bler144

With 9 alive, it takes 5 to lynch

Closest to lynch is no-lynch

Deadline – Approximately 4 PM PST (GMT-7) Friday August 21
_____

I tend to think that we're now officially screwed and whatever moderate hope we had of pulling this out at daybreak is down to a thread.

If Dedo is scum, him claiming what I did gives scum cover for hitting me instead of him whether or not they know 'how' dangerous I am to them. If he's town, they still have the luxury of trying to gauge which of us is more dangerous and then using the NK to put FoS on the other.

I can see why he was wary of taking his knowledge to the grave, but I don't entirely support it. That said, if scum learned anything in visiting me it may be moot anyway.

Likewise, they likely still know some things we don't know - I won't say what it is in case they haven't noticed, but there's something on the table they could use. Two things, actually.

I'm highly skeptical no lynch saves our bacon, but we're down to a very short window to make a decision. If we're inclined to no lynch I'm not sure what else I should say. Better to leave it ambiguous which of myself, Dedo, or the two people I've checked out is most dangerous.

I think it's far too late to 'organize' anything. And for the record, if people had supported a full claim, I would have come clean on everything 72 hours ago. There are two people I would definitely vote for, and 3 people I absolutely wouldn't.