Discussion has actually improved, it seemed to be getting stagnant before and that's what I was trying to get the game away from, we need every one involved and participating. I also have been participating and not just reacting, I'm not sure why you see it that way.

Any particular town tells you could point out which stood out for you?

Mostly I want to believe that there is just no way scum-Hunter would risk it all for something this... nonsensical. Yet I also find his explanation lacking.

My personal endless walls of text are for the benefit of my fellow townies, more than for myself (well, I want to know the answers to the questions I ask of course, but I assume that how and what I question is also of benefit to others). The more there is for them to read, the more they can trust in the consistency of my thoughts. We win this game through successfully identifying scum. Which sometimes means successfully identifying town, and looking at who's left over.

Pretend I'm really stupid. Pretend my mind works differently than yours. Pretend I haven't yet learned to observe. Pretend even post #289 is not enough, and that I'm really 5. (Maybe I really am, maybe I just want to confirm the consistency of your thoughts.) Make it so blatantly obvious that I can't ignore it anymore. Don't do it jokingly, don't do it obscurely. Just lay it out, one step at a time. "X means Y, and therefore..." If you're town, there's nothing that should cost you, other than some time.
I've personally mislynched trent and lost a game, because he didn't put in the necessary effort to show that he was town when I most needed it. Don't be making that same mistake!

Interesting lineup you've presented.
Drealmer + Hunter is the only pair which satisfies all of them. Yet from all the possible pairs, that's probably the one I'd consider the least likely.

I have been relatively scarce over the weekend, but really, equating me with gamma who last posted 4 days ago?! By all means, ask me questions if you want more from me...

And on the subject of gamma, I'd still like an answer from you to:

I pondered quite a bit if I should say what I'm going to say here, still not sure if it's the better course, but here it goes.

As I said already, his play this game is quite different from that of his recent scum games, which may well be the reason for the change, but it's not his typical town-play either, even for D1.

I'm not ready to put him into the town-camp, and I can flip the reason you present. He has indeed repeatedly exploited weaknesses and mistakes to get people mislynched, and succeeded more often than not. You and drealmer7 may well be low-hanging fruit to do it, but he was quite smoother in the last game when he were pushing for Nachomamma8's mislynch. He is a smart and experienced player, and pushing for the same set of players, again, and in the same way he has in the past, again, may well have put him under scrutiny. And with the matrix, it's, as Capitan Kirk would say, imperative for scum to secure a mislynch on D1, probably more so than for town. The way a couple of players out of the whole pool have played so far, makes them good mislynch candidates. With the right amount of push, which is easier to plan and coordinate with day chat in play, and with a couple of new players in the game, I can see scum pulling it off.

For instance, I corrected RWarehall about the timeline of Hunter65536 unvoting GammaEmerald. This goes the other way too. It's interesting that RWarehall drew attention to Hunter65536 after GammaEmerald dropped him to his null-line.

This is not to say that Hunter65536's reaction isn't off and suspect on a few levels, just that the fact that the initial subtle push of him into the spotlight was made by RWarehall, and the way it was made, raises my eyebrow both ways.

So while I'd have seen him pushing for the low-hanging fruit as pretty suspect, I have my reservations regarding the motive(s) behind him town-reading the players he does. We all know how scum present their reads, after all.


I'm not sure what the actual value of this is at this point. I did notice it at the time, but decided to wait and see how things play out.

It was pointed out early on that scum may try to exploit it, his post came well after it was pointed out, so did he actually do what everybody expected scum to do? If so, I don't recall anyone saying anything about it back then, or even later, so If you, or anyone else thought it scummy at the time, why didn't you say something?


Haven't refreshed since my last post, and got to run for a bit, will be back later.

That wasn't actually the point I was making particularly.. it was more specific to RWarehall from past experience with him. Not all scum players work like that. Maybe they didn't want to lynch drealmer because he has the actual scum leaning town, or all his scum suspects are town. Maybe they didn't try to lynch me for the same reasons.
That being said I still think there's a high chance drealmer is scum and that's part of the reason he wasn't pushed more.

No, I'm actually saying if Lift (or anyone) is thinking that we can't get a solid read on you and will probably need to lynch you (as there is no cop or other form of confirmation to clear you) but that there is a 50% chance you are town, then it is best to do it now where a mislynch won't be the end of the game.

Some very good points, and I am certainly keeping them in mind. But all in all I think RWarehall feels more town to me this game, not so much that he is getting a free pass, but in such a target rich environment I'm not sure I'd consider him Day 1..

As for this... I'm not sure. I remember reading it and thinking it was a bit of a broad generalisation, but I can't remember whether I just forgot to follow it up (and only noticed again doing a Hunter reread) or if I'd put it aside to see what happened like you did. Or even just wrote it off because he said no more about it and made no kind of push to follow the suggestion.

It looks very suspect in hindsight, but that could well be confirmation bias too.

gogtrial, I have very few townleans and gamma certainly isn't one of them

adalia, that makes zero sense- if you can't read me today might as well kill me to check rather than let the read grow? horrible really

Except past experience has shown that isn't the case and letting the read grow, as you put it, is absolutely no use.

for you maybe, but even so, you shouldn't use that as a reason to lynch me at all, I mean, we could just as well say let's lynch you because your reads are often wrong as town so even if you're not scum we don't want you in lylo cause your reads are more often wrong than not, but, that'd just be a crude generalization and not game-specific and a bad way to play and doesn't even allow for you to not be that, which I wouldn't even do!

Is he (still) such an easy mislynch for scum? I see plenty of doubts as to what his actual alignment may be, and his wagon is going nowhere past adaliabook's vote and yours since pretty much the beginning of the game. Scum needed to work harder, while risking to still fail in the end to achieve his mislynch. I don't know if you, and others, have noticed, but there are about 48hrs left to deadline. Scum needed to put a plan to action and push a new mislynch candidate, without being (too) obvious about it.


And what do we gain if any one of them flips town? Perhaps more importantly, what do we do after that?

Interesting is that for all the controversy GammaEmerald caused, his wagon has not gained any traction either.



Not sure I follow. What pitch and method do you see in Hunter65536"s (re)actions? Not even Hunter65536 claimed there was a method to what he did.

I also don't follow on that "kind of "oh there's nothing to that"", where exactly is that in what Lifthrasil said?


gogtrial34987 commented for themselves, but as far as GammaEmerald goes, I have to say that dropping off the map as soon as the pressure on him blew off (that all was last Thursday), and without giving the mod any notice for a prolonged absence, is quite more severe than "need to be giving a bit more too".



Well, when half the players announced that they'll be mostly away over the weekend, GammaEmerald has dropped off of the face of the earth, and drealmer7 adopted a... stingy approach to the game, what did you expect?

As for my prod, it's meant as in participate more in the current discussion, in the things said by others, even if/when they're not addressed to you directly.



Why is that?



Or perhaps because scum know from experience that he won't convince enough people on D1 to follow his reads. Or perhaps because they know he could be useful to them down the road, and particularly at LyLo.


I would, and do. Perhaps you're right, and I'm being overly cautious. I just can't shake the suspicion that he may well be pocketing some of you.


That is exactly my point.

Let me say a few things...
I really don't think my play is "all that different" from normal. If anything, I think I'm doing a better job than most games. I've always intended to analyze, think about it and then reveal when a situation seems to coalesce, especially day 1. Unfortunately, I usually get frustrated with the slow pace of RVS and try to "make something happen" which often results in some premature argument which clouds my further reads. And distracts from all the rest of the discussion, leaving less to read. Future days, I have more information to work with, be it voting patterns, suspicion proclivities and revealed results. I think this game, I'm closer to my ideal day 1 game.

So, I'm trying not to push too hard, waiting to reveal ideas until I've gotten enough that the information is worth it. Truth be told, I've felt like pushing on a few statements which appeared a bit scummy only to find as the game has played out, they weren't so. There are things both Trent and Adalia have said that "pinged" me at the moment only to be inconsequential when I saw where the thought was leading.

It probably won't convince you, because I pride myself on playing town as scum, but if I were scum, I'd probably have joined a push on one of the many "exploitable people" in the game. Could be Adalia, Drealmer, Lift, Trent, or Gamma as all have said things, at times, which may be questionable and have gathered a bit of suspicion from others. Adding a sixth player and opening up on Hunter, while no one even seemed to suspect him, just would attract a bit too much attention for day 1 and would be unnecessary with such a target rich environment. Suffice it to say, I'm questioning Hunter because I spotted a pattern which I find scummy. I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.

My vote is still on Gamma but it's close...

Question for you Gamma, now that you are back...
Why did you have Hunter as the top of your town list? What did he do to deserve that?

I think post 70, where he pointed out how catching a scum "certified" any pairings as town was particularly insightful. Meant he was looking carefully at the mechanics and very likely looking at them from a "town" lens to pick up on that.

I also think the Drealmer defense in 85 and 98 is likely town. Scum tend not to burn potential mislynches like that. Of course if they are in a team together...but even then, it seems early to come to a scumbuddy's defense. Scum will usually distance themselves, on Day 1 especially. It sure doesn't hurt that I was thinking the same things about Drealmer at that point...

On that basis, with my initial town read, I don't want a part of him day 1. My opinion may change by day 2 with more information with reveals and voting and suspicion patterns and the like. He's a good player who can "fake it", but if that's the case, he's got me at least for day 1.

End of day - 3/13/17

Better late than never...

Votecount
Hunter65536 (2): trentonlf, adaliabooks
GammaEmerald (1): RWarehall
adaliabooks (1): drealmer7
RWarehall (1): Hunter65536

Not Voting: GammaEmerald, gogtrial34987, HypersomiacLive, Lifthrasil

Hunter65536 is closest to lynch at L-3.

DAY 1 ends approx. 40 hours from now.

We've only got 40 hours left, so I think we need to start moving towards some kind of resolution.

The way I see it there are 4 viable candidates:
1) me
2) drealmer
3) Gamma
4) Hunter

It doesn't look like trent is on the table and I'm fine with that. I also can't see RWarehall going down (even if Hyper would choose to vote him that's only 3 possible votes I think). Hyper, Lift and gogtrial are all fairly in the clear for now too.

1) I'm obviously not voting myself, though there may be enough others who think I'm scum to push that.
2) I think we have three or four people who might vote for drealmer. I would say the chances of him being scum are at best 50 / 50 though, and his flip doesn't clear or incriminate anyone particularly.
3) Gamma's disappearance means he hasn't been on the table much, but now that he is back it would be good to hear some more from him about the various candidates. I'm still not sure what's going on with him, particularly as the lack of experience of his play style makes it more difficult to tell if this is normal or not. Has done some odd things and didn't respond brilliantly to pressure. He hasn't got many pairs, but I'm not really sure that should be a consideration as it only really helps if the lynch flips scum.
4) My current top pick. I don't think his behaviour up till RWarehall's accusation was particularly bad, but the way he responded to it and to the heat he gained from it really rub me the wrong way.

So I think it boils down to picking one of those four to vote for really if we want to have any chance of achieving a lynch.

Any thoughts?

Hm. That is of course right and I am still willing to vote drealmer. But I seem to be the only one at the moment (apart from maybe adalia). So maybe I'm wrong about him if everyone else doesn't see him as that scummy.

That is possible,

That is possible too ... but of course it is possible for you too! ;-)

And about the 'not getting a more solid read' - I actually don't think that 'we' can't get a more solid read on drealmer. It's just that 'I' probably will never be sure about drealmer. But for others that might improve over time. So just the fact that I can't read him doesn't mean that he has to be lynched now.

Why? Scum doesn't necessarily need a mis-lynch. Sure, a mis-lynch is the best outcome for scum. But a mis-lynch where they are seen pushing the wagon might be bad later on. So scum might already have decided to let us dig our own grave. I.e. wait for the deadline panic to set in. Especially if they already succsessfully stalled a wagon on one of their own (drealmer) or if there never was a serious wagon on one of them (for example because they both are seen as towny by the majority).

And of course we don't gain anything from the matrix if the lynch victim flips town. But we have plenty of interactions on all of the main suspects (drealmer, Gamma, adalia and Hunter for me) that can be analysed later. For example if Hunter flips town, RWarehall, trent and adalia deserve a thorough look. So no matter what he flips, we will gain information (much better if he flips scum, of course).

But concerning Gamma you're right. It is peculiar that he didn't gather more votes. Even his disappearance didn't cause much of a stir.

Hmm. Looking at it from a risk-benefit viewpoint would suggest to me to lynch Gamma or Hunter today. drealmer isn't going to be lynched today. Maybe rightfully so, I don't know. Gamma is suspicious, the lack of votes on him is strange, so the chance of hitting scum with him is high. If he flips scum, that clears drealmer and I can stop worrying about him, which removes the biggest distraction from the game for me. If he flips town, we take another look at RWare and we know that Gamma wasn't scum-buddies with Hunter or adalia after all.
The benefits of lynching Hunter I discussed above. They seem bigger than the ones for Gamma, granted, but he feels less scummy to me. Yes, Hunter does feel off and switches between lackluster participation and unfounded aggression. But I'm not sure enough about him to put him at L-2 yet, just in case no scum is yet on his wagon. At least not without hearing more from him.

Instead, as a welcome back, I'll put my vote in my personal second-preferred spot (at the moment). Hi Gamma. Sorry to hear about your computer. Welcome back, here's a vote for you:

vote Gamma

please hurry catching up and contributing your thoughts. So far you don't look towny to me and there is not much time left to prevent a no-lynch. What do you think about the other three of the four most suspect players mentioned above?

I would be hard pressed to vote you today. You have been trying to figure things out and have been scum hunting, your play has felt very towny to me.

I still don't like how drealmer disappeared for several days and after being prodded by the mod he returns acts like it's no big deal. His response was to suspect almost everyone that pointed out to him how much of a bad thing it was to do what he did. His frustration has him yelling and pitching fits, He really irks me in how he treats the game and the rest of us playing it, but I'm not going to vote him based on that again because it keeps biting me in the ass. Hopefully he will grow up a little and start acting like an adult and treating the game and the rest of us with more respect. I would be wiling to vote for drealmer today, but he would not be my first choice.

Gamma has been all over the place, he changes his stance at the drop of a hat it seems if he gets pressured from someone. I know he said his computer crashed is why he was gone for so long of a time, but that's all he has said since he returned. No one here is familiar with his play other than drealmer, but to me it looks like he is flailing a lot. I would have no issue voting Gamma today because it feels like to me between him and drealmer one of them is scum and I think Gamma looks more likely to be scum of the two.

My vote is on hunter and I've already given my reasons as to why, and he has not done anything to change my mind. I think between either hunter or Gamma is our best chance at hitting scum today.