As one of the proposers of the theory of GoJays and Stoic being Mafia, I also have to say they have put up a decent defence and pointed out some holes.
Im bemused by Bards stance also.

Im currently thinking that Gojays did just forget stoic was vanilla - but its a bit of a flimsy excuse. Also, Gojays might indeed be a roleblocker, but we have no way of knowing his alignment. He could easily be a Mafia roleblocker. But then why would he block a vanilla claim??

Hmmmm, head scratching and more digging to be done methinks...

Alright, I finally finished the reread of Day Two. And let me tell you, I'm not doing that ever again.
Before I start theorising, I'd like to do an objective summary of all the various claims we've heard so far, because I consider that generally useful:

Detlik:
Joacim Cans, vocalist of HammerFall (according to NameCop in #1433, confirmed by Detlik in #1441)

GoJays2025, aka PenutBrittle:
George Fisher, vocalist of Cannibal Corpse, Town Roleblocker (#1385). Blocked TwilightBard on Night One (#1385, confirmed by TB in #1429). Blocked stoicsentry on Night Two (#1467 confirms stoic's claim in #1457).

TwilightBard:
Unknown power role. Was blocked Night One (#1429).

stoicsentry:
Unknown, Town Vanilla (#967). Was blocked Night Two (#1457).

Jefequeso, aka Krypsyn2:
Unknown. Breadcrumbed something in #1051 (MAP FIA SK?).

SirPrimalform, NotQuadrYet, Robbeasy, Red_Baron, bazilisek:
Unknown.

Assorted additional facts:
* everyone (except Damnation killed in the pre-game) was/is a vocalist
* names of bands very often include "hammer", but not always; this does not seem to have any implication for their faction or role, though
* knowledge of metal would probably help a lot here. Alas, I myself have none.
* there are two killing factions; patterns would suggest one of them kills in a systematic fashion (nmillar, Rodzaju), the other more haphazardly (Vitek, Krypsyn)
* Rodzaju was a survivor and flavour-wise definitely the odd one out

* * *

I've already said I think it's most likely there is a serial killer and a 2-man mafia in this game. A game of 15 players should have ~3.75 anti-town roles; considering a survivor is neither town nor anti-town, this would get us to this figure almost exactly. This does not imply a whole lot; we just probably ought to start hoping our SK fixes that faulty scumdar of his/hers before it's too late. Either that, or we need to take him/her out in a lynch ASAP, but that's a tall order. Not to mention a vaguely anti-town one.

With that in mind, let's turn to The Curious Incident of the Absentminded Roleblocker in the Night-Time (catchy), and the possibilities therein:

Hypothesis 1: Neither of TwilightBard, GoJays or stoicsentry is scum.
- GoJays either distrusts stoic, or does not concentrate on the game (corroborated by #1154, "Oops... I forgot about this game, sorry about that, kind of lost interest after nothing was happening"; #1326, "Well I don't know what to say. I guess I voted just because I was kind of fed up with the long time" and more).
- Vanillas receive a message when blocked.

Hypothesis 2: TwilightBard is scum. GoJays and stoicsentry are town.
- TwilightBard did not make the mafia kill on night one.
- GoJays distrusts stoic or does not concentrate on the game.
- Vanillas receive a message when blocked.

*Hypothesis 3: GoJays is scum. TwilightBard and stoicsentry are town.
- Makes no sense. Stoicsentry has no reason to lie, therefore GoJays would have believed his claim. Blocking a vanilla townie is wasting a night action.
- Ruled out.

Hypothesis 4: stoicsentry is scum. TwilightBard and GoJays are town.
- stoicsentry did not make the mafia kill on night two.
- It's not certain whether vanillas receive a message when blocked.

*Hypothesis 5: TwilightBard and GoJays are scum. stoicsentry is town.
- TwilightBard killed Rodzaju.
- Vanillas receive a message when blocked.
- It's highly unlikely GoJays would choose not to roleblock anyone on night one.
- Someone other than TwilightBard was blocked on night one and did not say so until now.
- Ruled out.

*Hypothesis 6: TwilightBard and stoicsentry are scum. GoJays is town.
- GoJays is both the luckiest and most unlucky town roleblocker ever.
- Highly unlikely. Ruled out.

Hypothesis 7: GoJays and stoicsentry are scum. TwilightBard is town.
- Night One, GoJays blocked TwilightBard. Stoic killed nmillar.
- Night Two, either GoJays or stoic killed Rodzaju. If stoic did the kill, GoJays either did not do anything at all, or used some kind of non-blocking power (possibly a Mafia JOAT?)
- Both are free to claim whatever they like, covering each other's backs.
- It's not certain whether vanillas receive a message when blocked.
- Basically a high risk – high reward scenario for scum. Pretty clever, too.

Summary: there are several ways in which this could work: hypotheses 1 (no scum), 2 (TB is scum), 4 (ss is scum) and 7 (GJ&ss are scum). Adding the SK to the mix does not complicate things as much as it could; in fact, it would seem almost certain neither of the three is our SK, because I can't quite work out a scenario in which they could be, regardless of the faction of the remaining two.

Summary of a summary: were this earlier in the game, or at least if there were just one killer, I'd say lynch stoicsentry straight away, because a) his and GoJays' claims are so odd, b) if he flips town, GoJays is pretty much confirmed as the town roleblocker. This way, I'm a bit more hesitant, though.

Yeah, and unvote SirPrimalform. Upon rereading, I found out that was not as interesting as I thought, and I'm filing it away for later use. Sorry about that.

Vote stoicsentry for now.

My brain hurts.

Yeah... I believe GoJays is a blocker. So for me this definitely rules out Stoic as the SK. I don't think we're in a position to get anything else out of it though. It would have been a neat little plan, but...

The more I think about it, the more Bard's 1519 sounds like some subtle fishing for an investigative role... I think it's weird that you appear to be saying that all this is useless if someone doesn't have information to prove it.

Yeah, well, about that… :)

As I said, my internet access will likely be very spotty between 20–27 June; I don't expect to be able to post much of substance in that period. Sorry about that.

I hadn't really kept up with the thread since I was night-killed, however I just skimmed through the posts for Day 3. Honestly, I am still fine with most of my reads that I had at the end of Day 2.

TwilightBard is still at the top of my scumlist. SirPrimalform I still consider town, but some of his comments at the end of Day 2 were making me rethink my stance on him a little bit. Robbeasy was also rubbing me the wrong way towards the end of Day 3, as I recall.

As for the jefequeso post that NFY pointed out in Post 1491, I can only guess at jefequeso's intent. He notes that Robbeasy is his #1 suspect, and then seems to hide words (one is perhaps a mispelled MAFIA and the other is SK). Maybe he was stating that he thinks Robbeasy is a killing role of some sort; either mafia or serial killer? Having taken over his character, I know of no reason, other than a hunch, that he would believe this, but that is really the only way I can read that. This all assumes jefequeso was, in fact, trying to bury a message within his message and the capitals weren't just randomly placed, which might be an entirely incorrect assumption. I wish I could give more information than just idle speculation, but I really don't know what, if anything, jefequeso was up to with that post.

I won't have time to go back an reread posts and try to make heads or tails about the Stoicsentry/TwilightBard/GoJay2025 thing for a couple days. I'll just post a couple FOS that I have until I do make that more in-depth review of the thread:

FOS TwilightBard (I see no reason to go against my gut from Day 2)
FOS Robbeasy (Gut read from Day 2, reinforced by jefequeso's strong suspicions of him as his #1 suspect)

It's not useless, but I remember that Stoic kept saying he was town, but we don't have enough evidence to prove that he's town. As far as me rolefishing, I didn't think what I was typing came out that way.

I do agree, I think we are going to have to take a chance here. I don't think a vanilla would receive a roleblock, so that there is really suspicious. The only time I had a roleblock role was Game 9, and my roleblock of the then inactive nmillar was just finding him sleeping, and not doing anything, but Damnation could be doing things different to mess with us. The fact that Stoic got it, was extremely odd in my book and it makes things harder to judge with GoJays blocking.

Now, re: my roleblock.

Unsure why anyone thinks both Jays and I are mafia. Much about the double mafia theory is wanting, in my opinion. Supposing it's true that we're both mafia, then I don't get why he wastes the block on his own buddy. I could see it *IF* there were a way for everyone to verify that he used the block on me, because then he has a legit way for us to distance ourselves from each other.

Clearly then, the idea of droning up an alibi this way is unsatisfying.

Looking at another thing, if you actually do believe he used the block on me, and if you actually do believe that I did *NOT* receive a PM, then it would be weird as heck for me to say I did.

Also, if we are in communication, then I'm not sure if he's a vet... but if he's a vet he would certainly not tell me to lie and say I received a PM. I'm saying I received a PM because I did, and I'm new, so I had no idea that it wasn't done often. I guess if I had known better then I would have held it back, but again, I wanted to get as much info out there as possible.

Re: other theories. Much more likely that either 1) we are both town (which I currently believe), but also plausible that 2) we are on opposites sides. If you believe he did block me, then what?

He would then be presumed not to know what my role was, thus giving credence to the idea we're not on the same side,

Or, we could both be town.

Let's look at it one of those two ways.

Or, we could look somewhere else...

Could be that inactivity is where we really have to look, as many of us have stated before.

Activity is beneficial to town, inactivity is not.

Under this theory, who would be our prime suspects?

Suspect #1 to me is jefequeso under this theory, because he pops in just long enough to stay active, but doesn't say much.

Then again, others have probably been even less active.

Overall, I think activity vs. inactivity is very important right now.

I think people are having difficulty believing he blocked you, since it's so unusual.

My theory, at least, was that if you're both scum, you could have arranged a plan to get you both declared town by the majority, then toddle around killing everyone off in relative security. To do this, GoJays would have performed the NK (no tracker = no problem), and you would have both agreed to make people think he'd blocked you by agreeing on flavour for it in the scumchat. Yes it sacrifices a block, but you both gain major town points if you pull it off. As Baz said, high-risk, high-gain.

This theory assumes the block is a fake, because vanilla (no-role) receiving a role-block PM is pretty unusual (but not actually unheard-of). This way you are both accounted for during the night (you both have alibis for a night with a mafia NK), and then you coast through to the endgame coming up town on everyone's radars.

More later, this is all turning around in my head and brewing nicely...

Also, welcome back Krypsyn-Jefe!

He wouldn't have to, that's the point. Please read my hypothesis #7 above. Remember Mafia is a game of near infinite possibilities.

I think I was saying that under the assumption he actually DID block me.

If you want to go under the assumption that he did NOT block me, then it's all sorts of confusing.

If I understand what JOAT is, then I don't think he's that... mafia seems to be quite powerful. But understand that that is basically the kind of jump that you have to make in order to think he didn't use his block. That seems like a wild leap. It's either that or... what? Maybe he blocked the guy who got SK'd, assuming someone DID get SK'd? Because if he's mafia he would know the mafia victim so would not block them, and if he blocked someone else then theoretically they would be saying so... unless he's town and they're mafia in which case...

Oh my god... all sorts of confused.
Though it does assume that he didn't realize that vanilla receiving a PM in this case would be rare. Me? Yeah, I didn't know that.. but you basically have to believe that we both didn't know that.. otherwise it only makes us both look all the more suspicious (as it apparently has.) Let me propose a course of action on Jays and I that is much more reasonable, IMO. If we're both mafia, then I night-kill the victim and he roleblocks a townie. Boom. Makes a ton more sense to me.

I mean, let me put it this way: I don't know why that would work an alibi, but even if there is a slim chance it works... does this look like a game that mafia needs to start taking risks on?

Though to be fair I guess it does make sense to be taking risks from MY perspective if I'm mafia, because basically the dominoes have all been falling against me.

The above post reads to me posted 40 mins ago, edited 32 minutes ago: I wasn't in the thread at the time, but this is clearly a double post and should not be treated as an edited one! :o

Bah! How did that happen??? I thought I was being so careful. GRRRRRRRRRRRR.

Thanks for saying this though. My bad, everyone... :(

Dammit Stoic!!! My partner in crime! Nooo you'll be modkilled!!!!

Seriously though, that would suck if it happened. Anyway nice analysis Baz. I guess if stoic does get lynched and turn out to be scum then I'm in trouble aren't I? Eh... worth it... maybe.

Anyway I don't know what else to say about the situation... at this point there appears to be heavy suspicion on me, stoic, and TB, and little to none for everyone else, so there's a good chance one of us will be lynched. As Baz said earlier, the odds of them both being mafia is pretty slim.

I'm keeping my vote on Robbeasy for that mega-weird post/vote he made.