Posted January 27, 2020
RWarehall: There is no way Joe is in the top half for being Hitler this game. You can make every excuse about how Joe "could have" dropped a L, but I have to assess whether he did drop one. The most likely Hitlers are You, Lift and ZFR and I have to worry about the newer players who might not know what they should do. Microfish flip-flopping about how suddenly everyone who passed the 4 Liberal policies can't be trusted comes in 4th.
The least likely Hitler is GameRager who can only be Hitler if Joe is a straight Fascist. At best Joe is the 5th most likely to be Hitler. RedFireGaming is the only player eligible less likely but we learn less than with Joe as Chancellor as there will have to be a lot of explaining if we get a 3F claim again.
You seem to ignore the idea that the reason for no conflicts very well might be the cards themselves but you have already proven you have zero understanding of this game's probabilities.
Joe's only failure, he had a 6/11 chance to draw 3Fs or 54.5%. Meaning he more likely than not drew 3Fs regardless of his alignment. I have more information since I know I received 3Fs, so I know his real odds of 3F are 5/12 or 41.7% which is still fairly reasonable.
Your crying that he is "very very likely" to have dropped a L is just plain WRONG! And your whole analysis is based on odds that you pull out of thin air and have no reflection in reality.
So the real truth, if you were honestly a Liberal doubting everyone, you should think there is a 54.5% chance he's telling the truth about his draw. But I'm pretty sure you are not. For someone with "1000s" of games under your belt, the fact you are complaining so hard tells me we are 100% safe with Joe as Chancellor and likely ZFR as well else you wouldn't be so desperate to change things. That 80% chance we (the Liberals) win right now as a L gets drawn must be bothering you...
supplementscene: Hitler has being in government, 95% chance!!! If you're Liberal there's 78% chance Joe isn't Lib -yet you want him as chancellor as a possible Hitler The least likely Hitler is GameRager who can only be Hitler if Joe is a straight Fascist. At best Joe is the 5th most likely to be Hitler. RedFireGaming is the only player eligible less likely but we learn less than with Joe as Chancellor as there will have to be a lot of explaining if we get a 3F claim again.
You seem to ignore the idea that the reason for no conflicts very well might be the cards themselves but you have already proven you have zero understanding of this game's probabilities.
Joe's only failure, he had a 6/11 chance to draw 3Fs or 54.5%. Meaning he more likely than not drew 3Fs regardless of his alignment. I have more information since I know I received 3Fs, so I know his real odds of 3F are 5/12 or 41.7% which is still fairly reasonable.
Your crying that he is "very very likely" to have dropped a L is just plain WRONG! And your whole analysis is based on odds that you pull out of thin air and have no reflection in reality.
So the real truth, if you were honestly a Liberal doubting everyone, you should think there is a 54.5% chance he's telling the truth about his draw. But I'm pretty sure you are not. For someone with "1000s" of games under your belt, the fact you are complaining so hard tells me we are 100% safe with Joe as Chancellor and likely ZFR as well else you wouldn't be so desperate to change things. That 80% chance we (the Liberals) win right now as a L gets drawn must be bothering you...
You rage quit out last game I played with you as Liberal, when I was Liberal when Liberal policies were being passed and liberals won when you were being sheeped by a fascist ZFR. You sided with ZFR. You were fucking useless in that game. Let's not pretend you're not either:
A) Good at the game as Liberal after siding with a fascist that outed as a fascist clearly in the last game I played with you
OR
B) Not Fascist this game
Your 1 or the other in this one and you're a liability either way
95% complete b.s.
You want to be insulting...screw you!
Odds Joe is Hitler since no one selected him, his position did is 1 in 7 or 14.3%...those are the facts. You can make up stupid and idiotic numbers all you want but everyone knows you have no clue what you are talking about...
He might be Fascist, but I don't care. If he is, a Liberal ZFR exposes him, or a Hitler ZFR gets exposed with him. That is called good strategy, not stupid reckless and unsupported claims that make no sense. But the good thing is that someone who might be Hitler (ZFR) will be locked out of Chancellor for the next two governments if this passes.
Some of us know how this game works...you clearly don't. And I remember that game, where you were also convinced and telling everyone how I was Fascist the whole game and YOU WERE WRONG!!!! Because you are clueless!!!!