78% chance of 2 FFF FFF draws

But I know your alignment now anyway. You've probably sheeped enough Libs to heil your Hitler all the same

a) scene got me all riled up, so I kinda wanted to spite him.
b) If I am to lose I'd not want to lose to you a second time. I'd rather to Joe.
c) As I said, sometime you just have to pick something.

Not to Lib!RW. Lib!RW would know the odds are 42% because he saw FFF.

scene tosses a 4 coins with a friend. Three land Heads up and one rolls under the couch.
-"I wonder what the coin under the couch is showing" said his friend.
-"Well it has to be Tails. The odds of HHHH are 1/16" said scene.

You caugtht me. I'm Fascist, Joe is Hitler and this is why I passed LL to Joe instead of saying I passed LF to confirm Hitler.

Fair enough. And Joe has been telling us for several games now that we should trust him. Perhaps it's time to do so. :-) And if you give him LF and he passes F, you just kill him. We're at that stage now where that is possible.

You could of course, in the case of a conflict, try to kill Hitler instead (because at that point he can't be Hitler anymore). But that always carries the risk of hitting a Liberal instead. However, in this case in the hypothetical case that Joe is F and passes an F although you give him choice, then GR might be Hitler. Joe cleared him after all... But let's talk about that in more detail if it comes to pass. For now, I just hope that there won't be a conflict and you two just pass an L.

True. When you put it like that it makes sense. I wouldn't want ZFR as Chancellor either, so it's only fair that you don't want me as Chancellor. But as I wrote before, ZFR as President is fine with me.

Not when he stops being the most Liberal player by picking the player who is far most likely to be Hitler. This is either because:

A) You've picked poorly

B) You want to heil Hitler

I don't believe it's A because I think you know full well Joe probably silet dropped. The fact Joe likely silent dropped and didn't conflict means Joe is probably Hitler. You know that and picked him anyway.

I actually made a mistake though. I thought Joe investigated RWarehall Liberal but he didn't he investigated Rager. So while I was sure Joe must the dropper in Joe/RW - this logic doesn't stand up.

Really Joe should have investigated RWarehall. The only reason I can think of for that is because another fascist is in play. Unless you are Liberal and you have inadventately made a likely Hitler pick.

But then that would make Lift Liberal and I don't think Lift can be Liberal in this game. So you are probably Liberal and have made a likely Hitler pick. But logically would you do that?

As for coins, it's not quite the same as cards, if I turn over all but 2 cards and they are all fascist we know the remaining cards are all liberal. I think you know full well there won't be a conflict because the game will be over with a fascist victory ;)

How lovely, we're all buddies now.
Well, if it turns out it's you+RW+HitlerJoe, then GG.

Your logic is convoluted. Declaring Joe the "most likely Hitler" is just wrong. He never really tried to get into government or try hard to appear Liberal as opposed to you, ZFR or Lift.

Strangely, you are the one who went crazy when you thought I picked GameRager when the GameRager choice is the one where he likely risks putting ZFR as Chancellor instead of Joe letting us bypass Joe on ZFR's next government if we wanted to. Which one do you want? Pick one, but you can't argue for every side at once and call all my decisions wrong...

Hahahahaha. This is hilarious.

Go and read your own posts when Joe was asking whom to investigate. You were shouting left, right and center that Joe should not investigate RW because he would create conflict.



Liberal!RW saw three F cards.
He knows the remaining ones are 2L, 7F.
He can calculate the odds of Joe picking FFF based on those. The answer is 42%.

Here's the other thing...
Even if I think Joe can be Fascist considering that 42%, what are the odds he is Hitler? Not a Fascist with either you or GameRager or Lift as Hitler?

Hence, I don't mind him as Chancellor in that scenario because while he would bury a Liberal policy if you draw one (and not 2), your government has to report a failure.

ZFR Hitler: Means against the odds on a 80% draw failure or a Joe conflict.
GameRager or Lift Hitler: Means if you draw a L, Joe has to expose himself as a straight Fascist.

And even if Joe discarded a L, you still have a 50% chance to see the other one.

Hitler is very very likely to be in play, otherwise fascists would have conflcted to get him in play. Unless you believe everyone in government has been Liberal. Both Joe and yourself have claimed 3 fascist policies - this is a Hitler tactic.

I wanted ZFR as President because I thought he was most liberal.

Also how have I tried to look Liberal? Other than putting forward what I believe to be the best gaming strategies.
I'd say very very high. There have been no conflicts and we have 3 fascist policies on the board. That combined with the fact that one or both of you have probably ditched

Have you played this game before? 4L 3F isn't that bad. We are on the brink of winning.
You keep acting as if it's really easy to find L's when at 4L there are just 2 in the deck for the next 4 governments...2 of them are guaranteed to be 3F and there is a chance for 3 - 3F governments if both Ls drop in the same group of 3.

Your "very very high" is certainly not accounting for the real odds...

And even if the Core 4 have been infiltrated...
If it's just 1 person, that means 2 of the 4 non-Core 4 are Fascists!

So while there might be a Hitler who got roped in or Joe might have sandbagged the 2nd government (which I'm not entirely convinced a Fascist would always do as President), going outside this group means going to a group that may very well have more Fascists.

I've played 1000s of games. The fascist objective is to get Hitler into play so he can Liberal gain credibility. So if there is a 'regular fascist', there is also a Hitler. Regular fascists don't continue to not conflict Liberals if Hitler isn't in play.

A Liberal President should be picking someone who isn't likely to be Hitler. Especially not someone who's got a decent chance of having silent dropped

It doesn't matter if a Liberal picks a fascist if he isn't Hitler. Because Hitler being elected automatically loses the game.

You keep trying to push this ZFR is fascist thing....I wonder why that is. If Liberal you really need to change your play style as it is blinding you to all but what you want to believe instead of searching for the actual truth.

(That truth could be some of what you said, but even if so your play style is still a bit ill suited for this type of SH game...and this is coming from me, a guy who is new to all this)
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Playing like that or playing to have fun(or both) are equally valid ways to play, I think.
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The problem is he seems to think ANYONE who doesn't play according to his meta/ideas is fascist/supporting fascists, even though we all agreed not to play meta ages ago.....he stuck to it till now and it's coloring his views on who is what, it seems.
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If I may ask, how many/what percentage(approx.) were these sort of non-meta, slow paced games?

You're not understanding the objective of the game. Fascists objective is to get Hitler elected, Liberals is to not let Hitler get elected.

To do this Fascists make sure Hitler is in play. They do this by conflicting if he isn't in play. If he is in play they play Liberal policy until they need to start silent dropping to get to Hitler Zone. They might also get the luck of a Liberal getting 3 Fascist policies.

I've actually changed my mind. I kind of think ZFR is Liberal who has inadvertently picked Hitler as his chancellor in the Hitler Zone. Hitler is within Joe, yourself and RWarehall. But because Lift, who I'm sure is fascist is backing Joe as chancellor, I'm pretty sure Joe is Hitler.

Anyway I kind of want you lot to vote for ZFR-Joe in so I can say 'Told You So' at the end of the game.

@Pooka if Joe is Hitler can you just assume he voted Yes to speed the vote up?

There is no way Joe is in the top half for being Hitler this game. You can make every excuse about how Joe "could have" dropped a L, but I have to assess whether he did drop one. The most likely Hitlers are You, Lift and ZFR and I have to worry about the newer players who might not know what they should do. Microfish flip-flopping about how suddenly everyone who passed the 4 Liberal policies can't be trusted comes in 4th.

The least likely Hitler is GameRager who can only be Hitler if Joe is a straight Fascist. At best Joe is the 5th most likely to be Hitler. RedFireGaming is the only player eligible less likely but we learn less than with Joe as Chancellor as there will have to be a lot of explaining if we get a 3F claim again.

You seem to ignore the idea that the reason for no conflicts very well might be the cards themselves but you have already proven you have zero understanding of this game's probabilities.

Joe's only failure, he had a 6/11 chance to draw 3Fs or 54.5%. Meaning he more likely than not drew 3Fs regardless of his alignment. I have more information since I know I received 3Fs, so I know his real odds of 3F are 5/12 or 41.7% which is still fairly reasonable.

Your crying that he is "very very likely" to have dropped a L is just plain WRONG! And your whole analysis is based on odds that you pull out of thin air and have no reflection in reality.

So the real truth, if you were honestly a Liberal doubting everyone, you should think there is a 54.5% chance he's telling the truth about his draw. But I'm pretty sure you are not. For someone with "1000s" of games under your belt, the fact you are complaining so hard tells me we are 100% safe with Joe as Chancellor and likely ZFR as well else you wouldn't be so desperate to change things. That 80% chance we (the Liberals) win right now as a L gets drawn must be bothering you...