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General discussionSecret Hitler 3 - Beyond Stardom!(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)
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This is my favourite topic
Posted January 26, 2020
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supplementscene: You're not understanding the objective of the game. Fascists objective is to get Hitler elected, Liberals is to not let Hitler get elected.
I am.....I just like to have fun, and sometimes having fun involves playing any way one wants...even if it is not the optimal path to win for one's team.

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supplementscene: I've actually changed my mind. I kind of think ZFR is Liberal who has inadvertently picked Hitler as his chancellor in the Hitler Zone. Hitler is within Joe, yourself and RWarehall. But because Lift, who I'm sure is fascist is backing Joe as chancellor, I'm pretty sure Joe is Hitler.
So now you suspect Rwarehall? Why? o.0

As for Joe, I still think he would've falsely labeled me fascist to get me suspected by others when he had the chance. As he didn't I think he is either a liberal or a regular fascist.....gods help me if i'm wrong, though.

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supplementscene: Anyway I kind of want you lot to vote for ZFR-Joe in so I can say 'Told You So' at the end of the game.
Even if you turn out to be right(I hope you aren't so we can keep playing), it would likely be more due to luck(due to your suspecting of almost everyone else and unique play style) rather than anything else.

Also don't you want us to win this thing?

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supplementscene: @Pooka if Joe is Hitler can you just assume he voted Yes to speed the vote up?
That's not how it works...give it time. :)
======================================================

But still @Op: Who's votes(besides mine) are we missing?
Posted January 26, 2020
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GameRager: So now you suspect Rwarehall? Why? o.0
Don't you know GameRager, we are the Fascist team of You, me, ZFR AND Joe!!!! All 4 of us because Scene can't count...
Posted January 26, 2020
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RWarehall: Don't you know GameRager, we are the Fascist team of You, me, ZFR AND Joe!!!! All 4 of us because Scene can't count...
You forgot lift.....apparently scene got the numbers of fascists and liberals mixed up. o.0
Posted January 26, 2020
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Lifthrasil: You? The 'most Liberal player'??? Dream on!

Also: you try to twist my words again. As you so often do. I didn't say that Joe is my choice for chancellor. (Actually I am my preferred choice, which you would know if you would actually read what I write and not what you want to read). I said that Joe is the only available choice out of the great 4. And that's not opinion, that is plain fact, since the other two are term-locked. But it is very much like you to twist something bad out of a simple statement of game facts.

Also, why should we ignore the possibility that Hitler didn't manage to get into the first 4? Perhaps because that is exactly what happened and you want a chance that he gets into government? Of course there is the possibility that Joe is Hitler and of course there is a high likelyhood of at least one Fascist among the 4. However, Micro's initial absence may well have been due to his insecurity how to play Hitler. So I will definitely vote against any government involving his chancellorship. That I will vote against any government involving you, Scene, the most Fascist player in this game, should be quite clear. That leaves me, RFG and Joe as possible Chancellors, as far as I am concerned. Although RFG was quite absent too...
i've said it often. i said little bc i had nothing to say. all the rest of you can argue all you want about who is copying who and who said it best; i prefer to watch listen observe, and speak up when i have something to say.

ZFR - i no longer trust the Big Four (or at least 3 of them) because of the Fs that were passed. For a half-day I almost trusted Scene, but i no longer trust him.

i haven't read past this point yet, and dinner awaits. i'm 6-10 hours behind everybody else.
GR: the condiments were in there to tlavor the flavour. XD.

i just saw who was nominated and i have to say...congrats, ZFR, you reek. Your pick made you reek, yet if you are lib your past history with joe leads you to trust him. i pity you if he is F and you L. If you wanted to pick the chancellor who would allow you to appear F, you succeeded.

for a while i disliked lift because scene looked so reasonable, but now that scene looks fishier than a catfish i am liking lift more.

also, noone that i recall answered my questions about policy and likelihoods. This makes me wonder if i was onto something, as it would then be in the F's favor to ignore it.

laters. (I have skimmed from my most recent post through 602)
Posted January 26, 2020
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RWarehall: Don't you know GameRager, we are the Fascist team of You, me, ZFR AND Joe!!!! All 4 of us because Scene can't count...
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GameRager: You forgot lift.....apparently scene got the numbers of fascists and liberals mixed up. o.0
Good point! It's really convenient how there's really only one Liberal in the game and it's Scene, so it's crazy how he doesn't get chosen.
Posted January 26, 2020
Sorry for replying this way...my post missed a bracket and I had to redo it this way....post numbers correspond to reply numbers:

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Microfish_1: 1. i've said it often. i said little bc i had nothing to say. all the rest of you can argue all you want about who is copying who and who said it best; i prefer to watch listen observe, and speak up when i have something to say.

2. i haven't read past this point yet, and dinner awaits. i'm 6-10 hours behind everybody else.
GR: the condiments were in there to tlavor the flavour. XD.

3. also, noone that i recall answered my questions about policy and likelihoods. This makes me wonder if i was onto something, as it would then be in the F's favor to ignore it.
1. Seems a good strategy, tbh....though I wish you or others would add some flavor in as well. ;)

2. Dinner awaits? Lucky dog. ;D

As for the condiments....eh, they're nice and all, but I need some meat and taters type stuff at this point....or lots and lots of chinese food. Yum yum.

Also joking aside, I do hope you either get caught up soon and vote or voted already so we don't have to send out the guard to get yer vote....that or carrier pigeon(though of course make sure to make the best decision you can and be informed when doing so).

3. Well I am new so I couldn't answer them reliably, and I dunno about the others....you might want to list post numbers so the other players can look back on them. :)
Posted January 26, 2020
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RWarehall: Good point! It's really convenient how there's really only one Liberal in the game and it's Scene, so it's crazy how he doesn't get chosen.
Like ZFR picked Joe in part to spite scene, I am wondering if some don't pick scene due to his unique play style and insistence on what people "must" do......it is a bit off putting, at the very least.

At this point I am leaning him more towards liberal as it seems to be his play style...I can see why some might think he's fascist, though.
Posted January 26, 2020
If RW is fascist to Joe's Hitler then well played. Voted No to his government and made it 3-0. Id be really impressed.
Posted January 26, 2020
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Microfish_1: also, noone that i recall answered my questions about policy and likelihoods. This makes me wonder if i was onto something, as it would then be in the F's favor to ignore it.

laters. (I have skimmed from my most recent post through 602)
The odds have been presented for each draw. Furthermore, one also needs to consider the odds for the policies that passed. You can't just only pick the failures and act as if that reflects the reality.

Let's say you flip a coin 10 times: Heads/Heads/Tails/Heads/Tails/Heads/Tails/Tails/Heads/Tails.

But look at the 5 times Tails came up...there is only a 50% chance that could happen so what are the odds the first, 5th, 7th, 8th and 10th are all Tails? 1 in 32? The coin is obviously misshapen...

All 3F claims had at least a 40% chance that 3F would be drawn. But multiplying just those odds and ignoring the 4 governments that did succeed when they also could have drawn 3Fs is distorting the truth.

Are you really saying that GameRager is suspect because he only had a 40% chance to draw 3Fs and did even after he passed an L in the 3rd government when he didn't need to? The only way he is suspect is if he is Hitler, because he is not just a Liberal. And if he is Hitler that means Joe has to be Fascist as a Liberal would have outed him.

You think Joe and his 54.5% chance at the draw of 3F is an issue? After he chose in government 2 to pass an L as President? He has the least past credibility but the longest odds of success of the failures.

Or you think after I passed a Liberal policy government 1 and then also passed a Liberal policy on to be passed government 3 should now be suspect for failing to draw an L when there was a 41.7% chance to draw 3Fs? (or a far greater chance [66.7% chance] if you really think Joe flubbed one)?

Your question about odds has been addressed many many times already. And this conspiracy theory that we are all suspect and you can't trust anyone over 40% chances is silly. And if 1 person is actual fake, that means there 2 two Fascists in the group you trust or 50/50 vs 1 in 4.
Posted January 26, 2020
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RWarehall: And this conspiracy theory that we are all suspect and you can't trust anyone over 40% chances is silly. And if 1 person is actual fake, that means there 2 two Fascists in the group you trust or 50/50 vs 1 in 4.
Tbh I think Micro is playing better than scene is re: "conspiracy theories", and we have to remember he is new(iirc).

Also he is following my preferred play style(suspect most besides one's self equally unless someone is proven a fellow liberal somehow, or shown to possibly be a fascist.....then the suspicion "meter" rises or falls a bit accordingly), so that's a bit more liberal points for him.
Posted January 26, 2020
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GameRager: If I may ask, how many/what percentage(approx.) were these sort of non-meta, slow paced games?
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supplementscene: You're not understanding the objective of the game.
And you avoided to answer the question. You played '1000s' of meta-games that revolve around lucky player placement and strategy. You said yourself that you suck at the deduction style games that we play here. And yet you conveniently forgot that self-awareness of your fallibility that you showed initially. Now, when someone points out flaws in your reasoning, you don't even consider that you might be wrong. Instead everyone who disagrees with you is 'Fascist'. So the question is, did you really learn nothing in those 1000s of games? Like that you usually are wrong when statistics is concerned? Or is RW right and you are just panicking, because there is a high chance of an L being drawn and enacted?
Posted January 26, 2020
For a simple example of how scene is wrong consider this.

You toss a coin with a friend, what's the probability of Heads?
The answer is 50%.

You toss a coin with a friend. It rolls under the couch. Your friend looks and says "It's Heads". What's the probability he's lying?
According to scene: 50%.

Do you see the difference? Coin toss probability is always 50%. Always. No matter what. But probability friend is lying depends on many things. What was the toss about? If just a friendly wager on what movie to see and I know my friend is honest, I'd say there is almost 0% he's lying. If it's a 1000$ bet with a known cheater, I'd say there is almost 100% he's lying.

Same here. The probability of Joe/RW getting FFF is what value was given. But the probability "were they lying" is a different matter altogether. It depends on how honest you thing Joe/RW were in this game.
Posted January 26, 2020
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ZFR: Do you see the difference? Coin toss probability is always 50%. Always. No matter what.
Good post, and am just correcting this bit cuz I see it needs correcting(im a bit autistic, sorry about that) - Coins often have one side slightly heavier/etc than the other(dunno if that's the correct word I should be using) and due to that and how "random" random really is, one side of some coins will have a slightly higher(but not very much so) probability of coming up in coin tosses.....also that 50% can happen right away(or close to it) but it often is after a bunch of tosses over time(it averages out after so long).

Did I speak that right? I might've made some mistakes in trying to say what I wanted to say. :)
Posted January 27, 2020
Welp, going off to make dinner for the fam(dad is having his birthday dinner a few days or so early as he's busy then) and I gotta do most of the work(Will reply more when I get back)....wish me luck. :)

(I should be back in 20 minutes or so, as i'm just prepping some stuff for now)
Posted January 27, 2020
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supplementscene: I've played 1000s of games. The fascist objective is to get Hitler into play so he can Liberal gain credibility. So if there is a 'regular fascist', there is also a Hitler. Regular fascists don't continue to not conflict Liberals if Hitler isn't in play.

A Liberal President should be picking someone who isn't likely to be Hitler. Especially not someone who's got a decent chance of having silent dropped

It doesn't matter if a Liberal picks a fascist if he isn't Hitler. Because Hitler being elected automatically loses the game.
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RWarehall: There is no way Joe is in the top half for being Hitler this game. You can make every excuse about how Joe "could have" dropped a L, but I have to assess whether he did drop one. The most likely Hitlers are You, Lift and ZFR and I have to worry about the newer players who might not know what they should do. Microfish flip-flopping about how suddenly everyone who passed the 4 Liberal policies can't be trusted comes in 4th.

The least likely Hitler is GameRager who can only be Hitler if Joe is a straight Fascist. At best Joe is the 5th most likely to be Hitler. RedFireGaming is the only player eligible less likely but we learn less than with Joe as Chancellor as there will have to be a lot of explaining if we get a 3F claim again.

You seem to ignore the idea that the reason for no conflicts very well might be the cards themselves but you have already proven you have zero understanding of this game's probabilities.

Joe's only failure, he had a 6/11 chance to draw 3Fs or 54.5%. Meaning he more likely than not drew 3Fs regardless of his alignment. I have more information since I know I received 3Fs, so I know his real odds of 3F are 5/12 or 41.7% which is still fairly reasonable.

Your crying that he is "very very likely" to have dropped a L is just plain WRONG! And your whole analysis is based on odds that you pull out of thin air and have no reflection in reality.

So the real truth, if you were honestly a Liberal doubting everyone, you should think there is a 54.5% chance he's telling the truth about his draw. But I'm pretty sure you are not. For someone with "1000s" of games under your belt, the fact you are complaining so hard tells me we are 100% safe with Joe as Chancellor and likely ZFR as well else you wouldn't be so desperate to change things. That 80% chance we (the Liberals) win right now as a L gets drawn must be bothering you...
Hitler has being in government, 95% chance!!! If you're Liberal there's 78% chance Joe isn't Lib -yet you want him as chancellor as a possible Hitler

You rage quit out last game I played with you as Liberal, when I was Liberal when Liberal policies were being passed and liberals won when you were being sheeped by a fascist ZFR. You sided with ZFR. You were fucking useless in that game. Let's not pretend you're not either:

A) Good at the game as Liberal after siding with a fascist that outed as a fascist clearly in the last game I played with you

OR

B) Not Fascist this game

Your 1 or the other in this one and you're a liability either way
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This is my favourite topic
Community
General discussionSecret Hitler 3 - Beyond Stardom!(800 posts)(800 posts)
(800 posts)